Typhoon Tip

Yeah I dunno down here, even thought we're two to three ticks lower it still feels as brutal as the last couple of days ... WPC's 16:50 update still drapes the front N VT/NH as a quasi stationary .. there may be a prefrontal sort of dry-line deal with the wind coming d-slope too

'nother thing I've noticed as an Aspergery OCD about weather chart dude Thing is, heat/summer ridging was always associated with 582 heights as a crucial sort of metric for 40 N, Chicago to Boston, etc. Get that height to arc over those regions, deterministically in forecast methods and so forth, the 90 F isotherm comes N; and then the 588 may close off a circumvallated bubble that typically then retrogrades west from either WAR , or perhaps forms over Tennessee Valley/ WV before retrograding west underneath the 40th parallel. That was the case 1970s through the 1990s. Over the last 20 years, the 582 is still crucial but, the 588 dm seems to now fashion to where the 582 used to back whence, and now, we seem to have 594 circumvallate bubble domes nested that do the same trajectories, therefrom. Not sure but I'm willing to bet this is another way in the means in which the HC expansion begins to empirically manifest in summers. In the winters, I still maintain that the expression of the expansion is more so through the velocity energetics - a natural physically forced result of polar region still being sufficiently deep in heights to set up a gradient saturated hemisphere. It's why we've see these excessive jet velocities in recent decade(s) winters. So the "expansion" in the sense of area is suppressed/contained in the compression, but conserved via fast flow.

Guys... The intelligence agencies know when you shit. End discussion -

Yeah ...I dunno. Not sure what the cumulative twister season did for the country as a whole that year. It's just the article/ref to '53 made me think of that 24-hour lagged convection correlation between the Lakes and New England. Instead of just saying that I saw an opportunity to claim more battery life in my evil secret initiative to over-tax scrolling devices. I mean in order to do the former I had to layout the Grapes Of Tornadic Wrath lol

I have been wondering about that, my self. If that is to be the case, I don't believe it would be established over the next two weeks. Short version summary: hot here, hot there, back to hot here, across the three week oscillating hemisphere. And during, it is like our region just did, they may transit through. Longer version. The hemisphere is 'sloshing' Why? It may be an like an emergent wave function that results as a 2ndary super-synoptic emergent behavior from all the interior wave components of the circulation system carrying about. They cause the scaffold to "wobble" back and forth. That's a fascinating hypothesis to me, anyway. The next wobble 'might come back east. Perhaps way out there...toward mid July, these grand-scaled 'giga-motions' will find a rest state - probably with a ridge in the middle, with two vague 'dents' in the westerlies sagging on either coast... when Chicago is lazed off the face of the planet by shade temperatures of 110 heh. It may be the westerlies really do break down by then, but if persistence bears any usefulness, it may also just be a slower decay; in which case their heat, a new sag or depression toward California --> heat to comes back east, before any such summer rest state arrives. But I have been watching the expanse of the Pacific Basin's mid level wave-train in the modeling. There's a definitive tendency going on now, through D6, to retrograde a very impressive ridge anomaly from NE of Hawaii, to NW of Hawaii. As that occurs, this switches the sign of the PNA from (-) to (+) in winter. But this is summer, and the PNA is not supposed to be correlated well-enough in J/J/A to bother calculating the cross-correlation matrix at Climate Diagnostic Center ( as they've espouse in their products). My problem with that is that they are relying on some long term [interpretation] of that being the case, and it removes the in situ aspects of the hemisphere that may make for the correlation's ability to present in the circulation media, more prominent - like this year Namely/why, the flow is still easily identifiable as having a strong polar jet over the Pacific running along the 40th parallel, with some 4 to 6 isohyses in parallel, with 50 to 100 kts winds in ambience and jet max-lets running along that conveyor. That is not a nebular hemisphere - hello. It is an R-wave definitive scaffold that absolutely telecons quite proficiently actually given to that being the case, in June no less! So, out there in the - admittedly - deep extended, this oscillation near Hawaii reverses, and a new large spatial and y-coordinate (tall) ridge anomaly repositions again NE of Hawaii; the PNA's sign goes back negative. The timing of that June 21 to June 28 estimating, and the heat dome there may attenuate - or even get ejected east and get caught up in the new ridge formulation that takes place over eastern N/A as concomitant facet with all this.

It's likely this "skip" (right side) was really a new vortex forming along a flanking line that effectively cut off the inflow jet to the original vortex Not sure if they discuss that in the attending article - just sayn'. There is a 24-hour lag severe correlation between Michigan and Massachusetts though. Little or less known, and less reliant are these sort of 'existential' rocking-chair omens. Like the old guy and the pipe, doesn't say much, gazes off with a squinted angle, pulls the pipe from lip and mutters, 'the country men reel after the November winds did steal' - teeth clamp back down on the pipe-bit, "mm hm," and after a moment of arrested conversation within ear-shot, everything resumes and no one remembers he said it. Oops Not sure where I learned of that one along the way, but I did transplant as a youngster from Kalamazoo Michigan, to Rockport Massivetwoshits ( of all places.. those two ethos could not be any more different ). I don't recall who said what, or/if was read where, but the essence of it remains; it was connecting me to my former life in the moment found knowledge that was true. It's weird how we encounter symbolism like that in life sometimes. Heh, turn on a radio and that song must have been done on-purpose, as though the haunting refrain of where it takes you in your coveted past, doesn't want to you forget - for whatever cosmological vibe. Anyway, I have seen many times IN/MI/OH days of threat do then translate to PA/NY/VT/MA/NH and ...well, Maine has it's own world. It's not a hard guess to see why. It's just about the average 24 hours of synoptic travel time to meet those two destinations. June 1953 was absolutely an atmospheric cube of death convection in one location, simply moving 24 hours down stream to the next.

Yesterday was interesting. The persistent reloading of CB mass into the Springfield area, sent so much over-shadowing mid and upper level anvil span that it stymied any convection for the larger area. Up across southern NH, just outside the northern dispersion of the anvil plume, CBs fired there. But any town along and S of Rt 2, and along and N of the Pike ended up with mosquito rain barely able to wet the streets.

Meanwhile, a specter of a heat wave across California is formulating out there D6-10 that would best last August and reach deadly caliber if the trend doesn't "seasonalize". Talking even coast, with 101 to 105 into the Bay Area down to L.A., with off-shore flow setting up under the highest solar max time of the year. +24 to 31 C at 850, with d-slope winds compressing that to sea-level. Two words: bake bread Just bringing it up because we are [apparently] about to seesaw some rather extraordinary "hemispheric"-scaled anomaly layouts. It's a different implication in my mind when 'Earth' is is doing the oscillating, not just some regional biases moving about - interesting

Speaking of which .. flood watch. And warnings popping off. BAF does this. It seems like I've seen this a lot where Springfield region pools redeveloping convection. I mean it can'e be more than 67 F under those rad returns at this point but it's acting like some source must be feeding endless CAPE. We're actually getting screwed by the mid and high level gunk down stream now - gee wiz

Actually, come to think about it, ...before any of that circumspect logic, if one is combining "April" with running headlong into waves in the sentence for coastal New England, they are lucking their ballz didn't just up and fall off their body.

Chrisrotary12 is half serious with that tongue-in-cheek. It really is a local flood threat - only difference is, we don't have slot canyons here to focus run-off toward the Scout camps

I have narrow turrets with umbrella 'ghost' pileus here along Rt 2, with dark bases. I don't see how this region doesn't cut loose. Probable 2 cycle towers from seeing cell up this way, too

Looking at sat trends, seems unzipping along and N of about an HFD-PVD line ... filling in with vil debris and slow moving loud clapping dpours would be fitting -

You ARE a Meteorologist, then ! lol - if you had not earned this badge you described, you do not get to enter the exclusive Skull&Bones club- Where I grew up in Acton, there was big parking lot expanse, 'bout 1/3 of the mile away from my neighborhood', which was tucked in a wooded region astride a single story plaza. A bolt down my street and a short jaunt through the woods would spill me out into the parking lot whenever I the rapture of thunder would hug my soul - usually ... unexpectedly on a summer afternoon, and the neighbors, ha, "Oop, there he goes." And - oh my god I'm admitting this ... - the office denizens of the one business, they were actually sort of as I gathered, thinking of me as their parking lot thunderstorm mascot I wonder. They would sometimes gather in front of a picture window, watching as I stood their defiantly head long under an arcus cloud looming. Wind, rain, sometimes hail ..walled in. I think I once turned and bowed, disheveled but oddly pleased, and was surprisingly well received - they clapped. I did out grow that, but even to this day at middle aged, I am so educated by experience in the acumen of "cloud trapping", that I can tell you which crispy tower is worth the horizon in sun-glasses. Down my current street opens up somewhat for a fairly wide unobstructed views, so arms cross, you may find me standing there. But now it seems more refined and purposeful, so not as 'weird' ( I'm hoping ) Don't worry - it takes a particular kind of appreciator of environmental/Natural events, one that should be equally appreciated that people like us exist. By the way, when I was 11, I was grounded for 2-weeks because I blatantly ignored the baby-sitter and ran down the street on May 13 1980, when a F3 tornado carve a trench straight through the heart of Kalamazoo Michigan. It was my first tornado chase ...and it worked. Granted, the tornado in larger part came to me, but, situated all of 5 standard city blocks from the center of town, separate by sparse single and two story sky-line, offered an exceptional view. I saw the cone, as CG it seemed to fire off around it like War Of The Worlds ...and the distant impression a "swarm of bees" under the cone rose is unison, like they were conjured by the apparatus as it dangled. It was moving exceptionally fast. As I stood there transfixed, it was quite literally like the world and all sound faded to the tunnel scope as I focused upon the monster - was 11. I think my chin was actually drooped as a stared like a sociopath, eyes peering out from under brow line like the intimidating glare pierced by a feared prize fighter - I was never, ever, afraid of the thunder. I dared the f'n thing. But alas, it was passing at right angle. What grabbed by attention back was the crescendo of those jet airplanes; our neighborhood, Dutton Street, was under the approach to Kalamazoo County Airport. I remember thinking, "...Oh, the air plane must be flying low to get away" But as I looked skyward in the direction of the swelling din, all I could see was a sky festooned with small debris - and just about the instant I connected what that was, in pulsed what was like a P-wave off a nuclear bomb blast. Those old Oaks and Maples were stripping leaves and sticks and pieces like used 70-foot Dandelion miasmas. Yeah, this was enough to get me ducking and running for cover. I waited it the rest of the cinema squating down next to a porch, but just as I turned my head down and covered my ears, ....gone. Wind was dead calm, sun was shining brilliantly. Over. I would later deduced just by associating learning with memories, that must have been a helluva an RFD. I've seen video of these stripping shingles and trees, sometimes as much as a mile even S of the vortex. They are real, ...really they are almost meta-mircoburst scaled down rushing winds...etc. Anyway, over the years, I've had more people tell me that they admire the fact that something can appeal so importantly - it's probably more a testament to us being good people that we care about natural phenomenon as much as we do, and probably that we are so conscientious

I know. I we miss 'em My met text group ..we're baffled. We go through this ever year, after year ... where in the f are the nocturnal southern NH strobers?

Mmm. And...not saying that diminishes the significance of it. I think it is hugely problematic/indictment on climate change, that we keep seeing these weird early season heat expulsions curling around a continental tucking like it's some cosmic scaled Kelvin-Hemholtz wave. But, those can also fit inside more transitional synoptics at < then hemispheric scope. If last year was, it may have also included more areas, for one. Hypothesis: But, the fast flows of preceding winters, then relaxes "through" a wave space/forcing scheme, as it pass through that area of the physics, we are seeing lagged blocking -vs- heat oscillations disrupting Spring climate. This year, we have two aspects going on ( I believe - ) One, the La Nina footprint was being at times --> Two, ... buried beneath the raging maelstrom of the Climate Change/HC expansion hemispheric gradient saturation, and the overactive velocity soaking of the westerlies that will force, then f'ing up all the telecon correlations, at multiple sourcing/scales of time. This heat, albeit early, is actually favored in a La Nina hemisphere. I posed the data in mid winter, actually. Going back and pulling some similar antecedent month's of -SST/ENSO likeness from the history; there is coherent bias in frequency, those springs featured above normal heat, sometimes historical. I really personally believe that this year was in part eclipsed for the La Nino variant by the seasonal lag shit ( # two abv) and as soon as that finally waned out...we started getting ridges and warm. Recall, we had a ridge that missed a heat wave by 1 F ave but lasted 2 to 3 days ...prior to last week's weird single height contoured nor'easter. That one was like a 'shot across the bow' perhaps -

That's why I was careful to say 'pan-dimensional' ... using a long word to say, 'everyone being involved' because it is less typing that I'm now having to do anyway This was a N/A scaled, planetary wave event. Last year didn't really have that sort of "GWO" functional footprint/ scaffolding about it.

FIT/BOS/ASH all 89.6 at 10:20 according to Mesowest/UAT

Agreed and underscored - I was just musing over this an hour ago, that I don't - personally - recall registering this sort of pan-dimension convincing and proper heat wave before the Solstice; at least spanning the last two decades. That's anecdotal. But heat wave stats are probably not going to be very readily found without clicking - I think that NCEP does have 'significant events' type URL sources to the public - I haven't bothered to go take a look. Either way, it is not very normal to get one clocked legit this soon.

Haven't seen one of those since decades - not zaggeratin' There were some in the 1990s. ...Gosh I wanna say there was one in the earlier 2000s, but it was up in Maine. Reports were contiguous over-lapping in-cloud pulsations, with every third flash detonating church steeples. Winds and 4 hours of back building rain so heavy that it the rain shed measurable in mist. I remember it, but it was also sort of tied into a weak synoptic wave so sorts so was kind of a hybrid. But in terms of a lazy hot preceding afternoon of 94/70 that fades into a 40 chirp per minute cricket torridity of sweat on the couch evening, then the NW horizon starts flickering as one of those rounds the ridge axis - correcting the temp back to 66/66 mist at dawn and all that. I haven't seen that in recent memory. Maybe this will be the year. I frankly wondered if this heat wave may see an MCS or even Derecho type event, but we really haven't set up the deep layer wind fields favoring that. Usually, you get SW discerned 850 mb inflow jet that moves up and intersect the isohypses gradient from underneath, along the NW-N arc of the heat dome, which is a geostrophically unstable set up ... Then radiative cloud top cooling combines with the inflow jet to maintain the complex. We are lacking the inflow in the lower trop. We haven't really attained DPs in this heat wave until ..today really, probably as an indirect evidence of that lack. Blame Texas. That stupid 3 day whirl down there is a theta-e gobbler. It's also blocked the Sonoran/SW contribution of 850 special kinetic layer and over top EML plumes, too.

Hopefully in a meadow with yellow jackets, swinging pick axes donned in stripe suits on a life bid for just being born - God's the warden.

BOS/Logan makes a 'fake' 88 at 9:20 ... KFIT, 86

Probably have to get above 850' elevation ( in general ) to miss this heat wave proper. It's been "pedestrian" - in the sense that it hasn't been historic. However, perhaps it achieves where no one has looked? It occurred to me last evening - because I have life brimming with worthwhile reasons for even being alive ... - that I could not recall formally, a heat wave prior to June 21st on the front side of any solstice, in quite a lot of years. In fact, I don't know when. I know 1976 April did, but I was hardly cognizant of much then, lol. We've also had day or two 'spike' oddities in some recent Feb/Mar/Apr, probably associated with the obliteration of the 'normal' climate in lieu of a new one arriving ( f* you very much ) but those were not associated with this sort of planetary wave construct and demonstrative stability/predictive detection. We will have swelled and diminished, spanning what will likely be 5 days of convincing 90 to 94's when all is said and done. The advent of it this early, also respecting its form and essence, may be something in and of its self.

Actually it's a good point - The 'leaving sick dogs lie' strategy to disperse attention ( so as to evade a conflict destiny it is in the better interest of the world, never is reached ) through miss direction and/or an implied 'aroma' of uncertainty ( when there really is none - ): That may work better in the last century, when there were just two forms of media: either CBS with Walter Kronkite, or the gossip of Sunday bake sales at the Harper Valley PTA. Good luck with preventing exposure now - ... So maybe the above rant should have read, 'the government investigation stops at the sovereign gate of China'

I've opined with my usual proclivity, if not actual attempt to induce a popsicle headaches in the reader about this subject matter, already; so I will only partially over-laboriously offer adjectives that richly impugn the world this time. Kidding, but I think you remember our discussion a couple weeks back ? - that - But abv (bold), I suspect, is a mystique shared right on up to the top ranks of Intelligentsia. Where we find the NSA's, to Pentagon brass' "Hunt For Red October" meetings for Defense Secretaries, to the docs circulated to those with > Delta Clearance at CIA ... FBI, etc, it is more than mere fear of having to inquire into dark realms where they be dragons. Ha. Nah, for those agencies, those charged with pulling societal ropes, they don't have the luxury of plausibility. Those nuclei of fact-not-fiction know precisely who left the back door open on this thing, probably right down to the heart beat. We probably, in part, enjoyed a vaccine emergence so quickly because of that knowledge - but this is all speculation and conversation. I don't believe in conspiracies like that. But as Meteorologists - gee, we are primarily charged with deriving patterns. LOL But this is a game of "soft" brinkmanship, with pieces of chess-pretense, one where the West "needs" to act like we are feverishly trying to figure out what we already know, moving pawns less than completely consequential around so that we don't have to send in power pieces that ( just in case you don't see the easy metaphor) ... incinerate humanity and end the game over a f'ing virus. See, the impetus here is, 'why were they tinkering with the virus' - I think we'll find (eventually) that the research will tend to taper off around the gates into the sovereign institution of the weighty Chinese wherewithal - particularly with them and their shimmering historical precedence in the areas of 'human value.' It's plausible, there's more than resources and/or mere conservation of geodetic identities in play. It could even be bio-sociologically instructive - ei, that's a WOKE no-no. I think science will one day encounter its next great juggernaut battle, ironically, against the liberals - where most science as an ethic, virtue, and belief had previously found a cozy advocate. Yes, the next great battle against rationalism, much in the same way the war is waged by climate deniers, will be when advancing genetics begins to prove geographical distinctions isolating populations, engender congenitally driven behavioral and belief tendencies. Basically, concentrated cultural values over thousands of generations, carrying on in mate selection and feed-backs behind geodesic walls, have created "adaptations that that make them less hindered" - to put it nicely. Those that mold and shape aspect of ethics and virtuosity, included. While Liberals sing Kumbaya in enclaves of relative privilege-enabling settings, where modern convenience ... also spanning a lot of generations, has given rise to a cultural narcissism of moral righteousness; one that is really footed in vapid piety, and its naively optimistic insistence clear to the near brink of its own form of fascism. It has been espoused in the past, the probing and investigation halted at the doorstop of the KGB in the era post the JFK assassination, probably much for the same reasons if using their plausibility ( proof of concept) as a modeling: Doom weighting