Typhoon Tip

95/73 BOS

when do the brown outs kick in

what happened in '96

91/73 BOS

Is that also true over here at Bedford/Hanscom Field ?

yeah that's my thinking... But BOS is 73.4 ( for whatever worth MesoWest's decimals are )... and BED is 74 check that 74 also ... heh, it could be a situation where an off sensor is protected by a pervasively off-climo heat bomb. haha

Worcester, at 1,000' elevation mind us .. has average a DP of 71 over the last straight hour - bouncing around just shy of 72 and 70 respectively. The theta-e in the column is thick - I think the NAM picked up on this... - as in tall in geometric space on the sounding. I haven't seen the actual curve but just using 1,000 feet high.. Anyway, we have light winds ...if me get more mixing, it is unclear how much lower the DP will fall if we're drowned in it. Then considering '10 after 10' ... we could find ourselves with a hover T of 97 with a 70 DP between 4 and 6. Ooogly! ..probably that would have busted the Advisory as insufficient if that took place... 3 hours of > 103 ...?? I'll have to look that up.

KFIT 90/72

Rich girls ... ugh

The Euro's 00z run shears some of that off and sends it across S Canada quickly early next week, and actually takes across NNE and up your way long about D9/10. Oh, it's dimmed to 20C at 850 by then, but that's an impressive anomaly for you guys if that did that.

- but his is DVOR challenged deal at this time. Problem is, despite all conceits, technology cannot be certain that say .. three CBs in a rotating cauldron won't fire off and put down tornadoes, just as it is coming onshore where erstwhile busy lives have no idea it's even out there.

ASH is 88/75 ...my my 98 HI. Is that legit though ? I've been noticing that site is always the highest DP comparing everywhere. That kind of consistancy cannot happen unless it is either A, fed by a humidity source directly, or B, not accurate.

88/75 at the 6 home stations slaved to Wunder's site that are within a 2 miles here. This matches FIT and BOS reasonably well, with 88 respetively but as typical, those calibrated ASOS devices returning with 71 and 73 DPs. It's an interesting op for "10 after 10" and seeing if we can get to 98. If we make 98 with 73 DP at BOS, and it is legit out to the Cambridge side of the city, then that urban district will have verified excessive heat warning criteria whether human distinction has acknowledged it or not. Because whatever max we get to, it will sustain for 3 hours more probably... But we'll see. Probably we mix some DP down a little one would think.

Ha, it's funny looking at the GFS details too - Like, how often does one see a triple point low and severely kinked isobaric layout along and S of LI, while hydrostatic thicknesses are above 570 dm across all of New England below Brian latitudes ( where there be dragons of course! ) ? That should be red flag that the GFS shouldn't have the front there in the first place. Tossed - I just think the Euro run has the righter idea with the trough filling ( seasonal/recency trends in the hemispheric mode), and tending to be positively oriented should push/align the baroclinic field more SE of the region, which/where it is doing and so we see a tendency to train pieces of shit lows along that axies - but "maybe" enough SE of the region to spare NW sections and at least give SE hope. We'll see.

Agreed .. It's a bit of a regional CAPE anomaly more like 'ending up' in a cap recession/abandoning CIN This is a stowed CAPE release deal, where days of packing energy into the troposphere, and the ridge heights capping suddenly subside that day. In fact, looking at 12 to 14 dam decline in heights between 18z Tuesday and Wednesday same time. So we cross a threshold where heat ridge inhibition goes away and towers erupt on Wednesday. It's hard to know what the storm structures will be but probably pulse variety that tend or try to bow E with the steadily increasing W component at mid levels.

Just taking a look at the weekend. We all know this but ...it's still 144 + hours away and that's outside any of the modeling's wheel-house. ( the import in this is obviously the 4th of July shenanigans and not having that disrupted ). 00z GGEM is really ( surface ...) a redux of Memorial Day. Aloft it is transformative from a hyper summer anomaly to an early March scenario ( 500 mb evolution ) - that's a 'bowling ball' Nor'easter it's delivering. I don't see this solution as higher probability. It almost looks like it is forced to balance climo for today through Wednesday. "Hey GGEM - sometimes you just lose to heat/cold" 00z GFS typically paints exuberant layout of QPF. That aside, it seems hugely biased in placing the sharply kinked/inflection low in the Bite region S of LI> based upon the deep layer circulation, arriving on the morning of the 4th. Looking at the heights, I woulda thunk a different lower troposphere. The model tends to wedge surface boundaries too far S of the heights in any scope or dimension during its normal operating parade of events - could be bullying that there in doing the same. It's like ... pick one. Either back off on that front, or... lower the heights so that it is looks like well ..the GGEM. In which case, it is probably wrong for two reasons LOL. Anyway, the Euro looks both climate normal, as well as a better seasonal-trend fit. I don't know if there is enough reason to even plumb the deep vortex down that these other guidance are doing, now that I'm looking at this at a larger scale. It seems both are doing a huge seasaw to get to climate normals - whether that is organically so or parameterized, who knows. Muah hahaha, the conpsiracy to f-up the models and fake output. LOL. For now it seems that entire manifold of Fri- Mon the 5th is mutable. Having said that, I don't see it necessarily breaking for the better. There is ensemble support - clearly - for period of humidity and rains, but we won't know if it is coming in the form of an anachronistic March bowler like the GGEM, or more of a mid 70s sunshine splashed between rumbles Euro solution. But the Euro detail looks like murk Sunday morning breaks to partly sunny with temps sneaking to 75 with towers in late afternoon.

I'm actually a little surprised KBOX didn't pull the EH warning trigger given the feel of this as it has approached, but they did give pause and consideration to doing so; that's sufficient. As we discussed late yesterday, this is marginal for 'big heat' *subjective as it may be. It is not out of the question that a few spots may flirt with Excessive Heat Warning Criteria, but felt the Heat Advisory was most representative for now although later shifts will have to monitor dewpoint trends closely. We did opt to expand the Heat Advisory onto the east slopes of the Berkshires as heat indices will likely reach the middle to upper 90s this afternoon and again Tuesday afternoon. The only relief from the heat/humidity are some southwest wind gusts of 20-25 mph. I'm impressed by the NAM's four run stalwart consistency with parametrics on this - it won't deviate. But it's 2-meter/machine interpolations seem dimmed. 32 C at 980 mb hanging over Logan tomorrow at ax heat, with a wind absolutely straight west ! That's 'somewhat' unusual in that normally torridity is a SW flow.. But the impetus here is that a W wind both precludes any kind of indirect help from the Bite waters, but also even offers some down-sloping compression - like the situation needs more reasons to be hotter. But the data and implications are hotter than NYC/LGA at 31C ... but splitting hairs. Either supports a 2-meter T of 37C(~98) if under full sun/land based delivery. MOS is not that this high, noted - in the 93 .. 95 range. That seems biased..not sure. It seems the model doesn't extend the mixing height of the BL - which given the total synopsis .. it is unclear why it does this ( but I didn't look at bufkit to back that assumption). It just seems that 19.5C in a standard 850 mb adiabat is actually 32C to T1 (check) - so that suggests it is mixing between those sigma points, but the usual about 38 C in the 2 meter may just be MOS nuance. I dunno...again, hairs. Heh..too much effort over a hyper needling model design - Euro is 96 .. 97. Fine I agree with BOX implication above that the wild card may be the DP. Temp appears conceptually locked for that range despite those 2-meter idiosyncrasies

Heh. 18Z does it all over again later next week with Tibetan hgts.

It's home grown heat - that's way. I agree. It's a scenario where we have the non -hydro heights ridic but our sun needs a nexus with an injected western kinetically charge slab of lava. The two together ..really along 40 N needs that. They just get that nexus more frequently out in IA...progressively less common coming E along the 40th parallel..

Should we gin up a tropical thread ? There's also a small cyclone that's organized farther east along the same trough axis that host 96L, ..out around 70W/28.5 N - which must to the chagrin of others, does have enough oceanic space to act. haha... that would funny. For now it doesn't have much llv coupled oceanic circulation evidence, but neither did 96 L this time yesterday. Also, man 95 L looks good. wouldn't it be early to see a CV system - that's interesting. All topics that could go in a tropic threat for disco -

I haven't really looked very much at it to be blunt. This heat event the foreground/ .. leading to was a bit more compelling.

Oh state street - not government ave. heh, not sure where that came from. Just down town ..

Truth be told it's 'marginal' for 'big heat' ... being of the 100 point variety. But there are two metrics in play: scalar temp/DPs; apparent temp. I always thought of big heat cut off as 95 - but it's a social media vernacular ....It's like torch - wtf does that really mean. Anything anyone does not want in terms of warm is a torch - got it. So semantic this or that, just going by numbers, Scott's not wrong per se. But, it would only take a couple ticks and then we get into the gray area with HI and shit.

I'm not even arguing with y'all - that's what's funny about that. I dunno. Seem like you guys have assumed an adversary in the debate ... like you need one. hahaha sorry, ain't me. I never said the high temperature would be above the high 90s. In fact, if we go back I said at the beginning that this was a non-hydrostatic expression of ridging more so than heat inside it, and that we are actually missing a critical inject from the SW in this. ? I haven't changed that stance. As far as recent comments on the models - that's all they are...commenting what the model says. But, 97/71, which isn't a stretch in this ...plugged into CPC's own HI calculator is 105 - that is life threatening to people that don't take it seriously. There may be two discussion points here: one where I have been scapegoated lol, the other ( Scott ) needs to review HI standardizations are make fun of that. J/k dude Anyway, that's why they have advisories and warnings. Not on me man -

New NAM FOUS grid would put lives in danger on Tuesday - bite me. Lol.. .no I don't really care really but I do think the headlines out west are eclipsing a significant and impact event here. This run screws the temp up to 32 C at 980 mb - basically at the top of the Prudential Tower - any guess what it is down on Government Ave while that's happening... Worse yet, some pile driver boss of a crew sending up his roofers over in forkin' reve-ah. Probably 37 C out there along Rt 9 in Framingham waiting on one of those 5 minute red lights