Typhoon Tip

It's funny ... we spend decades of man-brain power, and probably billions in tech evolution, in order to sample and eventually predict the environment. Spend 10 minutes over a cup of coffee doubting what it tells us as over-cooked conceited hams - lol. I've done it too... Sometimes I admit that I just don't like the look of x-y-z handling in a-b-c model run. 'That's not gonna do that.' 'What's this f'n model doing out of nowhere with this' Pick the tossing internal monologue... Thing is, sometimes .. yeah, we are right to doubt. Certainly, pushing standard deviations should strain believability and force some thought. Heh. But I have noticed just like 2007, .. "Ida" ... just because the specter of model cinema can't be so, is no M.O.

This very similar repulse and response mode seemed to take place prior to the Dec 2008 event. Off-topic ... but the NAM began flagging -2.5 C at the 950 mb ( like right over tree top level) along the spine of the lower Monads ( which by geographic extension includes the Worcester Hills, btw ), WHILE the grid was also QPF'ing 3.5" of rain. It seemed that devastating ice storm was outright f'ing there all along. I'm not saying no one took it seriously - the general threat for aspect. No. There were warnings ... But I'm pretty sure the accretion/warning was .5 to .75" of ice rhyming, basically low-balling the shit glue out of what took place. And it was jaw dropping ... pretty much exactly what the NAM said: less than freezing + heavy rain.

I really wish it were not just fantasy that there were an econ incentive that argues never allowing Tweets be allowed/posted. But, unfortunately... that opposite must be the reality. Can't these narcissists and their followers PLEASE keep their morning shit thoughts to themselves -

It’s interesting this thing I’ve noticed about the 18z cycles (haven’t checked the 06z) of that model. it’s like it goes out if it’s way to shave standard deviations off everything … everywhere. And very consistent behavior. It strikes me as a systemic error when it’s that dependable, but also then washing the whole-scale handling weaker is less than entirely believable … maybe assimilation

You eat more water and like it.

Climate Change ... seriously, 'magine if that happened now, in this powder keg of blaming stub toes and lost car keys ... man, what a hysteria bag that would be.

Meh.. I get the commiseration but expectations being realistic - not a surprise. Couple basic concepts suffice lowering anticipation for us, vs elsewhere... one ...we are small in geographic area compared to the vastness of "Maritime SE-E Canada. Obviously ...that ups the odds in their favor surrounding size of target... blah blah. two ... we are farther W then they are, such that in a real world setting ...where probability is that MDR originating systems simply falter the total distance before succeeded as far W as we are, means they get the earlier recurve frequency more apt to threaten. "Home grown" Gulf and western Caribbean systems are not likely to affect those areas up there, because there's too much U.S. coastal intervening interaction first. Most TC's making an impact to those Maritime regions must therefore come from an MDR that peels TCs out before ever getting - Simply put, the static factors make it more likely they will than here. The rub is ... the odds increase farther down the coast because of said home grown events... because not only do they get those, but, they get a sizeable percentage of those MDR systems that do in fact make it all the way across. That leaves us with a tiny dole out of what is delivered, all sources combined.

Well... for however little it is worth - This/these type(s) of depictions coming outta the Euro and GGEM clusters ( even the 06z operation GFS took a stab...), are far in a way more ominously situating major/traditional aspects out along and above the Basin MDR comparing to what Larry ever did when that cyclone was in its early stages. Thing is...we're getting serviced buckshot when considering all the various modeling sources as a ( sort of ) single entity technology. They are on while spraying TC everywhere...and the timings therein are also offset. It makes it difficult to know what region... We may in fact have a 'Nick', 'Odette' and 'Peter' concurrently. That region over the western Gulf is a petri dish this week as the western arc of the WAR softens the mid and upper tropospheric flow into a gentle east caress over that region, which is underpinned by 90 F water or whatever in the boiling Hades it is there... The surrounding atmosphere is moist and there's really frankly nothing to stop that [already notable ] circulation tendency that is near the coast of the Bay from going nuts once that moves out... NAVGEM is the only model that seems aware of this - weird.. In similar parametric scope the region astride the Ga coast/adjacent is also entering a very favorable deep layer for TC genesis. There isn't much in that vicinity now - mind you...we're talking 'modeled to emerge,' in particular the GFS is pitching the development with the most panache. But now even the oft' retarded TC genesis Euro ( meaning it's overcoming its blinders..) is now denting the pressure pattern in that region... Whether a TC does take form in that area, the over-arcing theme is also very favorable, and these guidance' may simply be responding to that numerical instability at regional scales and imploding the pressure pattern. It's very hard to establish a deep layer eastern anomaly in the mid troposphere without cyclonic implications underneath in latitude, regardless of season... We don't ( or do, depending on one's more responsibility - haha) want that happening over 80 to 90 F Gulf Stream thermal energy within reach.. no - But, until some random thunderstorm out there serves as trigger to coalesce a circulation out of the ether ... we bide time on that. Meanwhile, the current rather highly ranked Invest over the far East Atlantic by NHC. That's not even the TC zygote that we see in recent Euro/GGEM runs out there... It appears a separate TW ejects farther S near S. Leone ... one of those one's that's pretty much TD designated leaving the beach type deals. That one comes off deep in latitude. Man, like 9N ... And with the general +NAO and -PNA extension and +AAM look to the total everywhere of the hemispheric canvas, that southern track seems pretty tamely safe to make the long haul - should have better probability to do so.

You know what's interesting about that Greenland/'Larry' ordeal, with that flash cyclone transition into a white-hurricane affect - That's actually happened more or less down here, if more so in a 'relatable' fashion in the annuls dating back centuries. Sandy was sort of a distant cousin, by getting swallowed up in that trough... WV did in fact get a bad early snow storm from that while NJ was getting fisted by a conveyor squeeze between -NAO blacking high and the left-hooking beast. Point is, the that's a unique and interesting sort of phenomenon that is, albeit rare, something that can produce well above the standard deviation storm anomaly distribution in snow fall, if things are timed and physically interacting just right. We've spoke and presented in post example ... I think the 1700's were big on doing this... where some early season cold was situated Ontario just biding time, and the cane slammed into the NY Bite ... But the Greenland present example helps elucidate that phenomenon.

Mm... actually, counter-intuitive perhaps but the opposite is true. The short version: ...the earlier than normal activation of the seasonal polar jet is causing earlier than normal pattern coherency - lending to CAA. Longer version: This is likely due to compression against the HC when normal seasonal gestation of cooling at higher latitudes defaults the ambient gradient. That gradation speeds up of the westerlies, earlier than normal ... Physical forcing requires the wave mechanics will organize super structures ...earlier than normal; R-wave organization --> pattern coherence and summer entropy is replaced by more order. This triggers patterns that typically are more identifiable as we head toward Dec... to occur by mid Oct's... etc. This does not mean "snow" per se. What it does mean, cold delivery ... setting the stage for snow chances from around those ~ times through Thanks Giving ..etc... Yes, while vast majority of the surrounding world's stasis happens to be on the crimson sides of the color coded graphics put out by the NASA state of the climate publications, we get the unique ability of hiding from GW because we're getting snow can cold...obfuscating the truth - ...taking some personal attack space saying that.. . What's funny about this ... we could still be pulling off these snow chances in above normal October and Novembers. They are happening is short duration bursts. Interceded by startling offset returns to warmth. In other words, the increased variability is probably the distinguishing science in the matter, but ... people will remember the snow on or by Halloween's or soon thereafter. I actually put some of these white thanks givings recently as part of the same phenomenon.

Oh it was, too. I also had accompanying sensations of nostalgia for it. You know? - how seasons all have a distinctive smell? I can smell dew-rich air .. heh, it's like the 'body odor' down wind of a summer thunderstorm. I can smell dew-starved air, as it mixes with browned leafs, both Indian summer or early cold snap. I can smell snow, just before a nor'easter, when the barren black tree limbs wobble beneath a sky that looks like busted mammata ..virga tendrils dangling. I can smell the mud of the recently thawed earth in late March. Sometimes, just then...you sense both snow in late 'farmer's gold' while falls and melts upon softened soil. It's interesting how these have very distinctive identities. It's true. This morning you could see the affect of autumn ...but the air didn't smell of autumn -not just yet. Still the visual cues were enough and I was imaging to times. Like up at my brother-in-law's in early Novembers. We set to felling a tree in those years; they were to prep for the next years fire wood... That 40 F air, and the smell of crunching leafs below foot with occasional wood smoke. Then the game was on, Patriots... and if lucky, ...some packing pellet snow grits ...but those games were more December. Some of those 2003 - 2009 years were good for that experience.

A phenomenon that actually begins on Feb 10 every year ...haha, but yeah. I was thinking about all this back-broke this, and seasonal transition that, ...while running typical Saturday morning towny errands. There was a kind of unmistakable 'crisp' to the morning zephyrs passing through the partially opened windows. Dew still clinging to rear window as the sun steeply sloped, shattered through their little cool water droplet prisms. If that were all there was ... the back was surely broken. Longer op-ed: It's really kind of hard to gauge where we are in the seasonal transition monitoring for me. My observation is that we are split during mid month, with both seasonal migration evident, simultaneously ..with positive non-hydrostatic heights and anomalies pervasively lingering everywhere S of the 50th parallel. I see those two concurrent aspect going on. Looking at the EPS mean for D6: That is a split continent. The activation of the polar westerlies is clearly presented, with autumn along and quite coherently orienting N of southern Canada. Immediately south of those ~ latitudes, those heights are much much more consistent with ongoing summer - and those heights are anchored by the Global HC shit unfortunately... Now... the proximity of the activated polar westerlies near by will be mean episodic backside confluence ..sending shallow pressure perturbations S. As we know, our geologic curse means that air masses are physically drawn into the area - if given any plausible reason to do so, models will bust and the mass will do so exceeding all expectations. Just a matter of how much or little in the latter sense. So it's not a clean heat signal - these perturbations will be sending low level 925 mb pulses of abrupt air.. etc. But it gets into relativity ...those are irrelevant in describing the hemisphere; but they are entirely relevant to this geographic region. So, those that 'want' the back broken ...win by virtue feeling like it is, when in the larger scope, the Hemisphere may as well be mid July with 20C 850 plumes and 588 to 594 non-hydrostatic height waves rollin' east to merge with WAR like that. Not sure who wins LOL This seems to point to a compression/gradient look trying to establish, too. That westerly jet pushing south against static positive anomalies everywhere between the Iberian peninsula Japan ...i.e., the whole world, is going to create some fantastic autumn jet velocities as this heads deeper into October.

Pattern coming looks more June -like/ reduxy… We just have more in the way of tepid sun.

Also, I wouldn't ignore that feature off the Georgia coast ... With the strengthening WAR tending to extend west that sets that area pretty proper with favorable kinematic layout in general. The models may be merely responding to that numerical instability with those sporadic inverted trough and weak spins ... but, that behavior also means they are 'trying to find' a trigger point in whimsy -

How bit this one - haha ...I've been noticing a coherent anti-correlation between posting and ensuing model depictions ... it's like out to get us

What I find interesting is that negative of mode of the Arctic Oscillation ( late last autumn through the mid DJF period ) preceded the observation net's detection of SSW actually propagating. ...SSWs in the tradition sequence of behavior: Sudden onset of thermal inversion/wave-flux anomalies takes place very high in the PV domain space ... ~> 30 hPa sigma typically. This 'mass' then propagates downward ...usually gaining areal space while shedding the scalar extent of temperature anomaly. Eventually the miasma reaches and interacts with the tropospause. Once it reaches/interacts with that depth, it stablizes the ambient regime; that triggers the PV "break-down" and the advent of blocking nodes formulate like pearls of a garland drape, around the 60 to 70th parallels and on and so on... While that did take place last winter season, it didn't do so until very late in the season - specifically ...as all this relates to the very necessary 'propagation' behavior noted in the traditional model: The annotation imm abv shows that the abrupt ( "sudden" ) onset of warm intrusion aspect was met, ...however, it is unclear whether the mid winter -AO regime dominance was really ultimately driven by the pan-systemic physical interplay between the downwelling plume and the tropopause, which as we can see above ...that particular and crucial behavior did not take place until early spring. That said, the anomalies I personally observed last year were nothing shy of extraordinary and perhaps unprecedented, as it appeared as though the troposphere and the stratosphere entered into a quasi-coupled regime, where the ridge node seemed to transcend through the traditional tropospause sigma levels ... And perhaps by virtue of being so dominate, exacted an almost identical forcing on the Arctic Oscillation, forcing it into the negative mode. In that sence... 'what's the difference then' ... I think there is virtue in attribution effort to 'get it right' .... I am not willing to say that the assumption of SSW is wrong, per se. However, there is missing the critical piece that demonstrates propagation that is part of that SSW --> -AO circuitry.

Man ...that pattern out there is fully enraged hard-on summer, period - Sun will be the only limiting factor by day, but the nights should do their part with ease to ensure a week or longer of lewd total anomalies.

Most intuitive, ...most importantly, responsible intellects will by intuition arrive upon an "extraordinary" conclusion ... less fossil fuel extraction and consumption has to happen. ( shocking, I know - ) In order to curb and hopefully suspend the current extinction order event that is both incontrovertibly attributable to effects/affects during the recent and ongoing, newly declared Anthropocene consequence ... ( long words that = "we did it, and are doing it" ), but is a species-killing era empirically observable, and a scary on-going science in present Biology and Ecology's, anyway. Personal op-ed... in order to form a more perfect orgasm on Earth servicing human-centric interests and needs ... We are not only in a lot symbolic ways, morally reprehensible collective-sociopaths, that perhaps deserve our own extinction, but ... (anger aside) these perils we've now face are a bit like the trope-arc of a dystopian thriller cinema. Up against crunch time when there is seemingly insurmountable momentum to stop the implicit portends and avoid a certain destiny. The force causing the Climate Change has sociological component. ...It takes 1.5 miles to turn a fully loaded oil supertanker when we only got .5 miles of free space before the edge of the world...etc. So you can motivate 8 people to change their modus operandi much quicker than 8 BILLION. Simply put, cannot be reversed in time. But, suppose for moment we are not in fact doom-destined regardless of what we know. What are the doom's day decimals ? The following is just another in a growing body of studies that helps quantize/ .. theorize what is needed to prevent breaching critical thresholds: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03821-8 If these are empirically derived and geophysically determined numbers, and they are in the future, simple logic: that means there is ( in a leap of theory ... not confidence ) time to change and meet those as goals. But I just ... I don't know. No confidence - hope I'm wrong. But in the race against the d-day clock, Humanity has miss-information problem that ties into that sociological perspective/insinuation above. That is like trying tote along dead weight in the metaphoric race - no pun intended. Motivating the giant ballast of total industrial ways and means of a species that by biological consistency/convention of all organisms of this world, needs to have direct corporeal stimulus in order to sense urgency and motivate change? That necessary run-on sentence implies bad enough. Creating an exquisitely proficient means to spread miss-information by nodal nefarium within the couching of that 8 billion wide-eyed absorbers of lies ... that are ill-equipped to categorical thinking in complex matters that escape the capacity to do so, and frankly ... prefer soothing advises that are 'less scary,' ... where's the evidence that quagmire can really be managed? I'm dripping metaphors in this already ... ( sue me, I like them), but, I have mused in the passed that all of these trials and tribulations of our time and all that happens, to, from, in the machinery of ongoing humanity and perceptions guiding its reality - all of it .. I liken it to a large group of people standing around in heated colloquy upon a railroad track, too distracted to hear that the iron of the rails beneath their feet has begun to vibrate and whir. That 'guiding reality' may as well be arguing over the color shoes being warn to the engagement.

It's almost like Schweogler got screwed by that - .because I could almost see or guess that back then the modeling tech might have plotted a more proficient meshing and capture. That wave coming in underneath and enticing the western end of that SPV lobe to dive S, that's actually an attempt at a 'subsume phase' scenario. And you watch out for those. He did get screwed, because albeit a decent event as you say ... the failure to really do so took a B .. B+ storm out of the mouth of an A+ monster

Ha ...aw man. You know, that's not the first time I heard that fellow beware the back lash. I don't know if it was in fact this particular system above, but I do remember around that time ...wondering after he said that, well when is this happening, re the re-intensification. I don't think it ever did? How did that verify ? Anyway, I was geeking out over at the Library and went several weeks of charts and was just gawking at storms in that incredible stretch, and noted that giant high over a decent S/W amid deep cold look on the 20th. It just like the stuff of legends. It's one of those deals where no one worries. By the way, there was also a sneaking decent even there nn January 3rd ... in between that one and the latte 'Megalopolis' storm - kind of gets lost in the shuffle there.

It's like sitting at 4pm on the beach in Tahiti with an umbrella drink, Four hours is a long time though, you bargain internally ...while looms the flight back to mid March back door miasma Boston mere hours away.

That 20th nor'easter, Dec 20 '95 was an amazing set up really. I wonder what the snow totals were on this thing... Here's the set up; note the 19th: https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1995/19951218-19951224.pdf

Meh... I interned with him - ... look, he's an earth-toned guy. One of the boys off camera and genuine. No arrogance. No 'celebrity pretense' of any kind. In fact, he doesn't give a shit about that stuff. He doesn't - or didn't back then. I used to hang charts and observe the media process - that was it. You know a kind of funny "Fordism" ( what my buddies call it when my loquacity gets the better of me as an ass-hat ) . The first day I was in the station, he finished what's referred to as 'the teaser' then said, "C'mon, let's go get slice at the Hall, we can talk about it on the way" Faneuil Hall. He was commiserating en route about what a pain in the ass it was to broadcast winter events in our specific market. How people "...Have to hear inches. That's all they want to hear." I'm nodding along "mm hm. Right. Right." "You know? Inches inches inches!" Just then, in my usual proclivity as a Gen-x irreverent dipshit - to which I'm not sure I've even outgrown frankly, I had the temerity to cut him off and add, "...Especially the women..." (omg) He stopped to bend over laughing for moment, "Yeah ha-ha, right!" I told my buddies back that lab they were like you a-haha-hassole. anyway I said I was going to see a camera guy before because I wanted to give some context but never got back to it. I was going to get into it that he and I debated whether that big storm would get this far N. At the time, it was still walled off with the deform axis about to to L.I. I won btw This was also back in the day that we could almost count on the heights/ridging out over the west Atlantic as being just insufficiently enough materialized that storms tended to correct up.

Here's the modest but important west-biased -NAO nearing after the 20th November 1995

Wow - that's exactly what happened, Will Check out this: https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1995/19951113-19951119.pdf Note the 14th... That overnight whiplash fropa event on the 12th heralded in the big pattern change, and there was no wasting time. That 5-3" snow/mix deal I'm remembering was most likely that event late on the 14th ...and then looking ahead the rest of that week ( download from the Library ) the pattern was like just not going anywhere with nicely sequenced wave spaced events.