Typhoon Tip

i think there was a storm in the early 1960s that wound up a 960 low and there was thundersnow with 70 mph wind gust - Jerry or Will might know

yeah...perhaps the scalar of the model is doing that at 925 but a-priori interpretation of that sucker in totality ...that would never do that at 925 - sorry. if that approaches get captured and has 516 dam height well closing off a drill bit over ri, the entire region is chalk dust pulverized crystals in 0 visibility, period

this is where the receding NAO becomes an index modal/archembaultian restoring storm.

ah ..gotcha... well, yeah... still, relative to parametric layout/synoptics, that's probably circumstantially the best location for "the punisher blizzard of 2025" - ironically

seriously ...this is tucked [ enter head scratch emoji ] either way ..that's situated position-wise and relative to all available parametrics for maximizing impact that is the b -word incarnate

not sure phasing/capture is a Miller A it's like a Miller D ...seriously... or C or something but it's not a gulf wave running up along the ec. yeah, there's an instantiation of surface wave associated with tennessee valley convection/vestigial b-c axis, but the capture and bombing is really the take-off plateform and it's more of a "cloaked Miller B" so to speak -

jesus, we're almost back to that crazy run from 4 days ago holy smokes!

it really wasn't west - y'all got fooled. it was 3-6 hrs faster along the track and rate of development, both maybe a tiny bit but it's really rather more so remarkable good continuity for this range. wow to that point alone -

it actually kinda should be west with that ridge like that tho

that 970 mb low a flipped over cargo ship's distance off montauk point doesn't need any more improvement. lol -

so there's a lot of differences in how the euro and gfs ( operationals ) get it done. that's not necessarily a detraction from 180 hours out in this case, because the principle players and interactions are essentially the same. that's important. that suspends the mere coincidence. i feel like these runs are a snap shot along a trend. like trying to judge a portrait while the artist is only part of the way into the illustration.

that's a specific aspect i've noted about the gfs' handling of cyclogen in the past. if/when it finally gets around to admitting there's a low developing, it tends to generate it too quickly. it's like even middling low pressures go through an ri phase

yet ..the euro's even leaving a lot on the table ... look at this slope back from negative interference - it's clearly having trouble with this 9/10/11 period of time. they all have been -

LOL, ya think yeah that 19th thing's been showing up for awhile - and the telecon showing a new +d(pna) chance. i want to point out that there is a powerful mjo sequencing into the phase 1/2, and it's not going to take a long time getting there. by the 7th we're living the wave coherence strongly out of the n/s region of the rmm, and this is true with every guidance system. meanwhile, after an interlude of +wpo, the index in the d10-20 range appears slated to a hefty sag... those two factors are a compelling telecon convergence that the pacific will reload... i find it interesting that the operation gfs, unrelated to those aspect, is indirectly doing this kind of suggetion on or about the 20th .. it's not a deterministic forecast - yet - but in principle

ah we're all friends. it's all good. don't take myself that serously anyway, i wanna also point out that as Brook' and Sey Mour' and i were mentioning of the 00z run, it was missing a capture and much bigger ordeal by a very narrow margin. this one? doesn't miss. it's really just a point of emphasis run really.

yeah, this is all i'm trying to get folks to think about. right.

bun me if one needs to ...i have little left to protect ... but i don't think the solution is altogether terrible. i spent time going over this this morning - what's amusing is that i specifically pointed out that the better timed expulsion of the southern wave, out of the sw, was less likely, because leaving that behind is actually a better fit for the western ridge ..etc..etc. in my defense, however, this run makes my point. the entire sensitivity pretty much comes/came down to the amount of stream interaction and if/when there'd actually be a s component to this thing. in principle, the run isn't bad in that space. course it doesn't mean it's going to happen, either.. just sayn' the gefs mean is a huge trend potentially though.

no ... it's not, but thanks. i write outside of this medium, however. sometimes in helps. sometimes it should have helped, but just didn't but i also spend a lot of nerdy time embedded in the extents cosmology .. to the minute quantum mechanics, and just about any other science in between that range. just interested ...

preaching to the quire ... i mean, i don't think you meant 'me' specifically in the bold above? but just in case ...i'm not ignoring the outside-in issues. i dared to mention the folding l/w stuff was merely related just the other day, and a lot of people don't like the direction of the discourse so ... i just assume a posture where i state the status of the system, and let others design their own interpretation - because this particular engagement has never succeeded in changing anyone's mind. they have to actually cut their f'ing arm off before they admit the blade is sharp, like everywhere in society these days. no, but the problem with gw is/has always been that it is invisible. it doesn't appeal to the biologically evolved method by which life "downloads information from the cosmos" said method is the corporeal senses. they are quite analogous to ports on a cpu. if the data is coming into the cpu is missing, the cpu is challenged to reconstruct a truer likeness of reality. ...it's really a pretty remarkable achievement of evolution that a life -based brain on this planet is capable, at all, of anticipating consequences that haven't yet been measured. this to me is what really separates human kind from other species. not the use of tools and speech and religion - which is likely an outmoded definition, anyway. i dunno. but the ability to do that is part and parcel of the large ability for innovation. which ironically ... is the same force that put us into the 'hot water' to begin with. so, the ability to anticipate and use that anticipation to constrain, is definitely not perfect. if gw gave every male a testicle squeeze, and every female a boob punch, ever morning before they left the house... all of society ways and means would have flipped the script many decades ago

BOOM! brilliant observation ( ha, mainly because i've made this observation myself lol ) no but that's precisely true.

i wrote about this a month or so ago in a post assuredly buried in the oblivion scroll depths ... it's not a trivial discussion content. in an attempt at simple terminology (that will inevitably fail ... ) when we were in the "classical physics" days of meteorological education .. we were taught about the outer limits of deterministic weather modeling as being intrinsically limited because of spontaneity and chaos. every complex system in nature, to which atmospheric thermal and fluid mechanics supremely qualifies... will create it's one processes of perpetuation, or demise. just about in equal proportion. the only reason that it doesn't just eventually devolve into a state of quiescent inactive entropy is because their are governing dynamics consummately effecting the system. on Earth those primarily being ... the differential solar heating across a rotating sphere, then ...having said sphere be tilted, while revolving, adds an additional variance. secondarily, you have the irregularities of the black body object in the thermal balancing, seas versus land,. terrain feature variance like seas versus mountain ranges... it doesn't take long to imagine that this is a messy proposition, and the models attempting to process a virtual state of reality, out in time, have to be able to do what they can't. simply put. they'll never, using 1's and 0's, be able to predict with excessive certainty ( definitely not 'absolute' certainty ) how all that messiness is going to manifest. some process will emerge that cannot be foretold by 1's and 0's, no matter how fast, because time becomes the villain. think of it this way ... A is a series of variables B is a series of variables the interaction of A + B --> C ... where C is a series of polynomials of that are both spontaneously created and/or spontaneously destroying, in time. can you see where this is going? it gets complex very fast, when we then consider that separate created variables, then go on to interact and create new distributions of C' ( prime ) ... then, this whole thing repeating in time, goes on to C'' ... C ''' ... to infinity really. quantum computing changes everything! how? because what quantum computing can do is, predict what all the possible solutions are, with far more proficiency in both speed and in 'knowing' what is destroyed vs created, and thus feedback on the proficiency out in time. so fast in fact that it is fair to suggest knowing all possible solutions instantly. it just knows all the possible solutions to a problem, immediately, and doesn't have to plod through them 1 by 1 ( 1's and 0's computing), which cannot stop 'impossible' results from cluttering the processing out in time. that cuts down the error of emergence bullshit model solutions, a quotient of which can never be totally avoided, particularly in the 1's and 0's method that is the present state of the technology/computing. one aspect i'm less certain of, however, is time. does this work to predict what 'can possibly' emerge, and then does it pick the right one? we used to discuss this in upper class fast ('forecasting analytics and statistics) ... it was always fun philosophy to consider that for every particle in free space one cannot know exactly where they are going to be and what state they are in, because at some point quantum uncertainty principle shuts the door on prediction, entirely. i don't know if quantum computing, being that it actually IS the quantum realm where the uncertainty principle lurks, might somehow get around that electron double slit shit

full disclosure.. .i personally think we need to etch-n-sketch the whole hemisphere and start over - this era was quintessentially designed to be perfectly just wrong enough and we've been fighting it .. blind to some fairly obvious negatives actually. well ... i haven't been, but i don't sense that anyone else has spent the time to really look . like the western ridge being too far west. more i look at this, that's a silver bullet to the heart of big dawg enthusiasts. a bit more complex, the flow being too fast - and by that ... i don't just mean the geostrophic balanced wind velocity, but the models are speeding s/w's movement through the field.

yeah so i suggest the 11th is alive. but, those original ( long extended) beauts of en masse sw eject with the timing of a Beethoven's 5th are unlikely to come back. we are still 180+ hrs out from 00z but there are background arguments that i won't get into here because tl;dr makes it impractical the n/stream has been quasi stable suggesting more amplitude, if perhaps along a shallower corridor. it'd offer a more middling or even nj model low scenario. i will add ... this +pna has been west biased in the operational runs, all of them about 90% of the model cycles. unfortunately, this idea of dropping sw heights and holding there and screwing up timing ... is really a good fit for said bias. if somehow the wholesale relay of the mass fields between the eastern pac and western n/a were to modulate and bump the ridge/correct e.. that would be a plausible impetus to coax that sw feature to open up and become the s/stream piece for eastern shenanigans there may be other mechanism to get that thing to open up and enter the dance floor, but the super synoptic argument about idiosyncratic pna bum porking has definitely got merit, however

it seems the n/stream’s been the more stable in guidance. the s/stream … not so much cmc not impressed

Missed capture by a very narrow margin