Typhoon Tip

If anything I’d be worried about over assessing while it was over the Pacific You know I talked about this a month ago Ever since the Boxing Day storm seems like we can’t correct storms bigger when they come onshore; they’re always being proven to have been over-assimilated. As an aside …I wonder if that is done on purpose to protect against short term corrections toward life-threatening storms. “might” be why we’ve been noticing in general how storms keep getting corrected or normalize downwards when they’re passing from mid range to shorter terms in recent winters. I’m not 86 in the current one. I’m just sayin …be prepared for the Gfs to possibly been showing really good continuity based on bullshit assimilation

Mm... I'd like to see how the GFS does in a flow that is closer to normal wave/ambient jet velocities.

god.. if this happens it would destructive... lord

Quite the win for the GFS if this continues... Not only did it start locking into continuity much sooner, it did so way ahead of the others ... uh - assuming it verifies. But like I said earlier, this is going back many cycles now and the only aspect that is less than continuity, is the fact that it seems to be adding some 5% totality impact per cycles since that locking began. I mean, at this point? if it is wrong it's going be pretty damn embarrassing... At this point, we are talking about unwavering insistence really ... Not bad for what ? 108 hours -

Couple aspect to the GFS that are bucking long trend .. makes it sort of 1) ..that high as you noted; typically, those accelerate relative to model run, with a trend to move them off faster. This? Opposite. Okay - 2) ..overall systemic potency ( more so since 2010 in all guidance for some reason - I think they got the modeling equiv of COVID) tends to normalize as mid range gets near. Big events end up middling... middling, something smaller..etc. This is three runs in a row where the high is stalled or even back-massed, and that potency is going the other direction.

GFS looks like a do-over next weekend. heh

No, we don't.... But, it's like these factors got so bad... they're 'reaching around' - hahaha. No but we did discuss this week how the PV is biased on our side of the pole. It's very cold not too far away in Canada, and that changes the map a little - namely...this sort of perfectly timed scenario. Which is what that is... After late Monday finishes grid failure across the area ... just such a cold plume of air circuits through Ontario and it's bite gets just about to southern PA...but already by early Tuesday, this thing's mid level jets are ripping over that boundary... It's like walking by roulette and throwing 5 down on black what the hell, and having it hit.

Yeah I can see that, Ray - I think it may start out as a mid level drive with the boundary moving N slamming into polar air. For a time... earlier, there is then ascent/upglide aloft with the 500 mb wind being strongest on the polar side of the boundary, but as the totality evolves..the the low gets its act mechanically situated, and perhaps from me to you ( axial) up to Maine, we cash in - yeah...it's bit cutesy in detail - but the GFS overall has been impressive.

the more I look at this.. .it's sort of a weird rare scenario, of having a decent nascent polar air mass, with a mid let wind field running astride/N of the boundary; in fact..it's hard to single out main velocity tube there...it's like throwing vorticity shrapnel along the polar side. Anyway, the lengthens the time of maximization of QPF mechanics. ...uh, snows and or mixes and or rains for a long time - longer than the total velocity of the ambient atmosphere would suggest. ha. I mean, typically, we don't see it snow for 15 hours with things moving this fast. You know what this reminds me of? Not sure if you were around in 1994... but we started getting into these longish duration events that were also moving fast ( once Xmas was safely behind and ruined... heh). That circumstance was an oddball super synoptic set up where the NAO was so hugely positive it more in essence ...backed SW, and compressed the flow... Then disturbances ran up into the fast field and stretched out and by virtue of extension ...events lasted long. In a way, this is a strong +AO ...but it too is biased S and is compressing matters.

Omg ...let it go ... we were probably in greater part just talking past one another anyone - that's how this shit always goes down. lol

I am singularly impressed at the stunning continuity of the GFS runs ... Going back like 5 cycles, it's hard to really glean enough differences to mean a whole helluva lot. Comparing that to the Euro... well, all foreign operational runs I have seen for that matter, quite paltry - not sure ... Continuity is one of the forecasting bullet points. But this is obviously a total scenario and street cred ( lol ) that makes things a bit more textured than that. hmm.. This 12z run - does anyone have those frontogenic charts ?? Just looking at the 500 mb evolution, that looks like some decent embedded banding there. Also, this thing is trying to model ( GFS ) as an over-producer. That's some heavy QPF for a flat, open wave. Looks to me as though the GFS initiates a heck of a warm boundary with rich theta-e in the TV and really thrusts it rapidly to about a mid Jersey to CIN type latitude, and with that much 500 mb wind acceleration on the N side of that 90 hour position, you end up with quite the up glide into an exit-entrance mid level jet field.

It would seem to be the case - exactly ... What I am less sure about is whether the destructive interference of La Nina is what is preventing the wave from "as much" ( less anyway ...) strength in the N latitude there. But you know... when sending wave through a fluid medium ( for the general audience in saying this ...) the wave grows laterally as it moves forward. Wild imagination to say ... but, what if the wave got so intense it sort of "tunneled" through the inhibition, and then started showing up more propagating convection on the N side... It's all about dominating forces, and La Nina could lose out if wave got exceptional - conjecture.

Nope - No one is considering it enough - ... Particularly when it is papered - it's really more like reticence to accept change when it doesn't fit well-known and accepted [ institutional ] narratives. It's not me doing jack shit to promote anything - I frankly go after objectivity. I have been perfectly clear, all along, the HC expansion is modulating the previous model - Although, I pushed - admittedly - the fast velocity bias of the hemisphere as being related to that... To which I do believe that to be the case. We'll see.

The problem is... the momentum/flux of the MJO is distributed on the south side of the equator - publication states that clearly - So, that being said... the momentum is not moving N through the equatorial 'boundary' condition. I keep saying this, and it's seems to be conditionally being accepted - ... I'm willing to go with that, "IF" the wave grows and start actually propagating on the N side of the Equatorial climo - ... we'll see. Until that happens, less to negligible influence. Also, the wave is in destructive interference with La Nina, which may be 'why' it is having trouble propagating on the N side - not sure... But, the longer term climate statistical correlation, La Nina's and Phase 8 ... not so good.

There was not coherent wave at all, before 4 days ago - and you can handle a, " what the f are you talking about"

Never said that the strike through but nice gaslight LOL I know what I am talking about. Sorry ...I do -

What the f are you talking about. I just said "it's obviously coherent" and your telling me that IS my point.. No shit Sherlock. ...So you must mean, 'coherent as in detectably forcing the Northern Hem' ? wrong - the MJO is not enforcing the NH when it is not even emerged barely out of the Marine continent ... thus, that's not what's causing that

MJO coherency isn't my point... - if it matters. It's coherent, obviously ...but it's in the southern hemisphere - south of the Equator. It is not going to transmit it forcing through the "Equatorial wall" ... like this, - the flux of latent heat would move outward ( aloft) and away from the Equator toward those mid latitudes... What could change is if the wave grew laterally ... the wave its self can extend further through the equatorial 'boundary'. If that happens, convection ignition would then initiate modulation ( maybe ...). Fwiw - here's excerpt from CPC's recent publication: • A Pacific MJO event is likely to destructively interfere with La Niña, and there remains uncertainty as to whether the MJO will maintain an organized structure, as evidenced by large ensemble spread in the RMM forecasts through mid-December. Any coherence of the intraseasonal signal is more likely to be south of the equator.

La Nina and MJO phases late 6 thru 2 are destructive interference

Not a huge fan of this model anyway but that’s a suppressing trend

I know you mean well but I really hate these charts… This is not the icon model run - this is an interpretive algorithm spitting out snow based on who knows what math they use. Goes for all snowfall layouts regardless of model.

Heh. I just read ‘east wind’ in the context fear. Lol i looked at that and thought good, all safe and snug and tucked in for no worries.

Yeah it’s not abundantly clear how much that limits forcing N … but it has to - latent heat flux moves away from the source but does not cross the equatorial asymptote personally I don’t think the MJO … i just suspect that it’s in trouble because of HC anyway. It’s been having trouble coupling, and now it’s S eq based, and south of the eq virtual axes in which the atmospheres of the hemispheres don’t tend to interact The math of all that does not add up to influencing the northern hemisphere… Now if the wave suddenly expands across the equator and starts generating convection on that side … the flux moves away and we’ll see but then again my personal hang up still have to work the HC

The present emerging MJO is momentum biased S of the equator. “Whatever happens in Vegas stays in Vegas”

That images right there is a N ageo wind on the west side of a CF pressed right astride Rt 128 …