Typhoon Tip

Heh.... maybe - nah, I think folks should count on triple point scooting out SE Mass, with this going over to 34 F rain after 2-6" of snow, less SE, more NW... but since N of said feature, the wind don't mix down. Basically, low redemption event. Any snow at all is probably saving it, otherwise, Phin's right - 'hideous' proportion is probably most apropos

Isn't that a song lyric from Cats? "The rum pum tiger is a hideous beast"

Umm ?

Since we're taking the entire shaft on this thing... do we have to have the wind chill advisory/warning and high temp of 10 tomorrow, too ? This whole thing - echoing Will's sentiment from earlier ... - really is setting the table the best that can possible be signed, just maximize the scale and degree of a failing climate. Maybe this is one of those little oddities that is easy to dismiss as flukey, but is in fact a tendency in present climate/moving forward. 40, 10, 40-rain, spanning 36 hours. amazing really ..

It does though...I've seen it. I lived in Rockport Ma in my history, through a winter. ...unmentionably distant history.. I recall a specific once occurrence of parachutes falling heavily upon the still harbor water - really still. They were making individual impact rings as though they were rain drops. But they weren't melting right away. The were visibly conserving as small slush blobs. By latter Jan and Feb, the ocean water in the coves and harbors of the N. Shore can be pretty much life halting, death cold. 32 F water tucked in, unfrozen because see water needs to be 26. So aggregate bombs kissing the surfaces at big enough that they probably form a dilution interface between their cryo-cores and the brine water, that doesn't penetrate. Slush floats... In fact, if it snows hard enough in that marginal state, I've seen the harbor turn gray.

Zactly! I mean ... I think back to that whopper < 12 hour temperature recovery event back in 1994. It was late January ( you're better with dates than me ...). That was also a plain to see we were going to be porked by WAA fisting up the coast. I was still a fledgling Met back in those days, and so I was really in a frame of mind where, " ...I gotta see this to believe it..." Lack of experience, combined with the 9 F at 8am on the Wx Lab monitor, with blue tinted dawn and flurries under the street lamps along the walk over, didn't lend to believing. But, there was no high pressure N... In fact, it was even less so than this one is presently modeled to have. The baroclinic wall/associated cyclone approached from the W, not the S like this one will. That event back then really was a completely unabated rush on the cold QB, and the QB was definitely going to unavoidably take a sack. By noon, 9 had become 22. Freezing rain kicked in, which only accelerated the heat retreat - because once we started accreting ... phase change latency kicked in and sent the temp pretty quickly toward freezing. By 3 is 32 ... 32.01 as Ray muses from time to time. The sky had changed texture. By 4, it was strato-streets visibly moving N with extreme rapidity... 35. The cafeteria below Smith Hall opened for dinner at 5:30. I was sitting there eating, and the bushes immediately outside the window were suddenly whipping around. By then I knew this was the warm boundary... At some point between 4:30 and 5:30 ( I had stopped paying attention out of resentment, ha) it came through and leaned tree tops over. When I stepped out shortly after 6, the night setting was sounds of turbines pushing 60 air up and over snow banks, that were sending Kelvin Hemholtz steam plumes rollin' down wind.. The air smelled like summer. I think it was Friday... and the campus came to life. Students spilled out of dorms because ... I guess going from 9 to 62 musta been tee-shirt weather for lacking acclimation. Sparing furthering misery of that anecdote, ...last year's Grinch storm? Same... Huge snow pack. Pretty chilly ( though not 9 ) the day before... Completely naked and no defense to a full latitude trough moving E across the country. This is not like those.

Time sensy but check out the arctic boundary as it slinks through IN-OH-PA https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Ohio-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Fantastic elaboration that hones the oddity of what's portrayed in the models. I've been sharing in this sentiment. I also am of the ilk that seldom really gets personally 'moved' by failures/successes, either. But being human ( LOL ) it does admittedly feel unsettling when there are really both intuition, and data, supplying veracious counter- reasons that question the consensus - yet, the consensus persists. Other than what I just annotated last hour, re the relay and final piece to this dog and pony show set to relay off the Pacific tomorrow, I'm out of a suggestions - if this doesn't modulate when that happens... the less than sensible, less than a-priori for matter, solution probably prevails I guess.

I agree with you here pretty much entirely re cold handling - yup. But I am intrigued by that bold statement. I'm not sure I find that to be true so much anymore - in fact, rather the opposite. I've been trying elucidate/bring that to awareness, that we have been consummately correcting mid range events more tepid in character by the time they get to short terms; something I've noticed since the last great near term sudden correction back in 2010 as I outlined. I'm not sure if NCEP is doing this... Or if it is just an artifact of fast flows, and the models correcting for that they have to introduce neg interference ...etc... Both facets could also be true -

So ... the obvious take-away from that statement is that if this behaves as currently modeled, it has essentially never been observed Now that's an interesting system. For the general reader: Doesn't do the winter/snow enthusiasts much good to say that; there's less virtuosity there. However, for the purer Meteorologist/scientist's perspective, this would-be event becomes a truly historic event - worthy of study, and amazement ... Funny how that works... I agree with the essence of 'lock and loading' as the current interpretation. It's hard not to give into that as the objectively aware. At some point, we have to accept that we live in a techno-era when weather-related modeling doesn't offer as many corrections at < 90 or so hours; in fact, I'd even go so far as to say "drastic" corrections really are a thing of the past, too rare to really 'realistically hope.' ...relative to what one wants, of course. There are those that don't want a snow storm - but who cares about them, right? LOL. They scurry and hide amongst us, in the crevasses of the forum landscape, like the early rodent like mammals of the HUGELY lopsided competing Jurassic's apex reign of predators. Ha. Anyway, the last I can recall a short duration modulation ... whence hope seemed to will a consensus desire... I have to go back to the 2010 "Boxing Day Storm." That was 12 years ago. If anyone knows of any since, ...yeah, I'm not saying there haven't been others. But to be fair, we mean all but completely abandoned by machine and man interpretation that re-materialize @ < than 48 hours. I see couple of "minor" reasons for hope in this. But I want to emphasize minor. 1 .. The last piece to the puzzle technically still has not been relayed off the Pacific. 2 .. As we are all aware... our near miss ocean storm will soon be teaming up with arriving arctic-polar high, and really advect some nasty cold during the 24 ... 36 hours preceding the event - beginning in earnest tonight. Which as an aside, later this eve and overnight, that looks like an open sky lapse rate momentum sharing opportunity to me. Those 30 kts sustained mid BL CAA vectors on the NAM easily come down to tree tops in gust. ...Anyway, that won't help us very much IF ... the models are correct with the the large synoptic circumstance of the surface high at 54-60 hours ... suddenly unanchoring and slipping E. I have seen 9 F at dawn become, soar to 62 F in just 12 hours ( Late Jan 1994) - it can happen! However, there is a slim room for the +PP departure to be less problematic for cold. If the third piece of the puzzle comes in and is weaker... the southern stream won't get drawn as far N, quite as prodigiously as the models currently have. Thus, the track of the everything, ...mid and below, ends up SE as a later adjustment. 2 .. there is yet another fleeting possibility... Suppose it comes in stronger yet. The S/W ridging you see rippling out ahead of it across southern Canada ( left to right above ), would likely evolve stronger... Consequentially ...also as later adjustment, the the high pressure ( 54-60 or so hours) would transiently holds on longer as this mess comes N. That could have an interesting counter-effect of creating damming/'barrier' jet activity, and .. .heh, more of a moral victor than anything else because that slam the warm sector intrusion shut.

Wait … using the NAM at 72+ hrs seeming kinda risky … particularly considering it tends to carry in with NW bias at that range. Course it helps your case I suppose that the Euro isn’t altogether much different … I almost wonder if the fact that these NAM solutions more than less agree with euro (or vice versa) should be a red flag. If one has to be a pessimist about the storms and they’re going to have to have admit that the NAM is spot on ballz accurate at 84 hours lol

Too bad George001 wasn’t a type-A personality with an adversarial narcissistic sensitivity disorder … then reading that. - popcorn and coke awesome

Depends which model one considers the most … Someone needs to ping George. This becoming a very serious situation with this latest

I like how whatever model shows the most Debbie Downer abysmal sore butt solution gets apparently full proxy over the tone and tenor of spirit in this online paragon of functionality ..

Hey George … it’s a little concerning that the NAVGEM has a 979mb low in Cape Cod Bay … what’s your opinion the impact -

Plus… It technically hasn’t “chased” GFS Kev keep in mind they run at the same time but we don’t get to see the euro until it’s a couple hours or more later. That might give the illusion of it running or chasing it rather but it really just kind of moving back-and-forth in tandem

In theory .. yeah. It's just beginning as the occlusion axis is riding up the coastal plain... If it started 4 hours sooner, than the conveyor Brian posted gets trunked and the 700 mb mechanics continue to dump thru an isothermal column.. probably ORH-PSM if that were to happen - from 4 day out no less - hahahaha. just sayn'

wow is that close .. there at hint of closing off the 850 mb - what's interesting is that it's doing that slightly more so than the 06z, which is was a tick or two colder sort of ancestral run to this one's look. Anyway, ... obviously should that happen just a little more physically realized, what ever happens NW stays that way.

It f'n better snow outta that 18z run cuz if the rest of that thing's right we press on from that storm through a riveting 300 hours of repetitive dry arctic fropas and soothingly warm tundra blows

April Fools Storm 1997 was a bit of a bust ( positive) but it was actually pretty well sniffed out too. I remember Harvey on air motioning some 5 days prior while saying, " should this feature pass under our latitude ..." Well, guess what happened. But, Barry Burbank the day before was calling for 6-12" - which is well above climate as it is, anyway. Yeah... I think 30" is of blue cake is probably a bit more than most expected, particularly when metro west of Boston reported something like 6 hours of lightning and thunder with it. So have to technically call that a positive bust - but I was up at UMass still and there was back office discussion about the ominous look of that mo-fo'

The era of that kind of positive bust is probably behind us ... (at some point we have to beginning weighting the AI, particularly < 4.5 days) but man, would now ever be a good time for that! Have it bump from TTN to the arm of the Cape the day before. Talking 4" --> PL/cold rain vs 4" + 18" I mean there's two types of positive bust. There's the utter blind side. But, then there's the arrogant fixation by the conceit of technology and belief, going straight to hell.. haha. An example of that would be the forecast for a minoring dust in obscurity that was set to describe December 23 1997. The then, "ETA" was the go-to premiere meso model - possibly because it was the only meso model. Oh wait...or right, I think the NGM was around then still. Anyway, in the evening of that day, digging out of 18" of snow ... 90% of which fell in 3.5 hours, said dust verified as a comet impact in history. I mean, literally ... no headlines, to society stoppage in 6 hours of wtf-titude. making me laugh thinking back.. oy. Yeah, probably the tech is to the point where that sort of thing is a thing of the past.

God ...was just scanning that for ...where I might have slipped a monster ( heh ) in there... anyway, why did I write this - ugh "...I think this has room to amplify sooner, and track further west ..." My fault! sorry guys. sonovabitch

Y-hah, kinda like, "'Scuse me while I kiss this guy"

NO shit - something in 2012 hot syringed testicles? ..haha 2012 man. ho man. That is bar none, numero uno ( like saying it in another language makes it even more so, right -) the worst f Jan -Mar in history. The only thing that ( sorta ) redeems that Turkish prison sentence of a winter is that October 30 waste of clown space storm. As amazing as that was, any winter enthusiasts out there NOT willing to trade that p.o.s. in for a better January two.5 months later? 'Course, I'm a little biased against the Octo-bomb because I have a personal fetish about NOT losing power for any reason - but that's just me. Which I did for a week. What made that rub particularly chaffing is that since I am the last person an a 10,000 service trunk, I was of course by dumb f'n CD luck, right next door to a trunk that did not lose power that long. I spent 4 day in dark cold, while musics and light, and the aromas of dinner cooked within plain sight. I will never forgive 2011-2012 for weather. But... on a personal note ( LOL ) I was able to play disk golf every weekend Jan and Feb, in cargo shorts and light sweat shirt. Open fairways ... not bugs... now over grown prickly shit in the fields. Lots of light wind.. It was a utopia for that sport.

Yeah ...the reference to those dates wasn't in deference/context that way - ..interesting interpretation, tho - It was written in black and white 'medium to major,' first, in bold, and that impact was 'TBD' The references to those dates was not a context for assigning to this one, those as analogs. No - Like I said.. .whatever - I think the bigger aspect of interest is that those sentiments originally put forth are still where we are at some 70 page later - that's funny.