Typhoon Tip

Isn't this the thread for Tuesday's coverage ?

Ha! ... yeah, my sense is that we can be reasonably confident in getting systems to occur - but ... y'all are greedy with the cold f'n air up there and need to share. But, that was "contingent on the former" ens means... I'd like to see just a smidge more - at minimum adding to a positive trend and if so overnight... etc. That bulge in the PNA seems to be happening in tandem and that's kinda dangerous.

Caught in a "snow landslide" No escape from reality

LOL... well I'm not part of any Kevin riots on this one... but I thought he said 4-8" over here in this thread. Will was teasin' 'im earlier. Anyway, I'm sticking to modeling trends, education, and a-priori.

By the way ... I haven't been over there yet but I believe there is already a thread for Tues? I suggest that is above the nominal threshold at this point... I feel like that's heading for a 3-6'er I like Pope's earlier comments because they're are frankly correct - the GFS tends to moosh S/stream waves that are attempting to interact with the N/stream curvature, such as that total synoptic evolution out there is... These other guidance bringing a fast moving flat wave up along the clipper's trailing baroclinic field, NW of the GFS "moosh axis" uh...yeah... And, and lapsing UVM over the polar side, with a least weak frontogen tendencies is fine when we see a 300 mb evac exit jet ripping through just NW of here... the so dubbed "QPF queens" may miss that expanse potential of this... 18z GFS probably starts the concession march... There's a limited upside though, as the total mechanical space isn't huge by any means, but it's a matter of conserving more of it along with favorable jet relays. Can someone move this to that thread LOL f!

Pending the 00z cycle EPS, GEFS and GEPS means ... I'll be putting a thread together for 'Emerging significant cyclogenesis centered around Jan 30' Saturday morning. ..unless there are any objections? -contingent on the former. I feel the signal warrants at minimum early risk assessing as the formulation saga we are looking at seems to have a ... pretty large upside for impact extents, to put it nicely. Leave it at that.

It could be a subsume phase scenario ... I see evidence of a strongly evolving lower latitude Miller A/B hybrid... Then, it may get captured by additional mechanics doing what the term suggests... subsuming = settling in and usurping the low as it's own...That's when all hell really breaks lose. Feb 1978 - no not a analog ..just sayin' this Ray - did that. It was an intermediate stream wave ripping through the OV and it merged with a very non-descript wave off the Georgia coast, and then the N/stream nugget bullied in and captured... But, getting waaaaaay ahead of ourselves. It's just that I see all kinds of potential in there. I wouldn't have brought it up this morning if it were not for the 1/3 of the numerical telecon members showing a camel back out there nearing D10 ... That's like, ok ... are we admitting its there finally?

- altho, ...the really neat ones is when the -15 F blows across the Lake, and only modifies it to -3 to 5 above... The air is more like mist snow everywhere and radar just has this cryo-mist/miasma .. I've seen that set up with 1/4 mi vis everywhere, but its rare.

Reminds me of when I was a child in Michigan, watching solid white LE squall walls NE, and dark gray SW ... while occasionally a virga blown open 7,000 ft tall CB smear brought mere flakes to the air from over head. Kalamazoo was always ... alway between the snow bands that looked a lot like that same radar - primitive radar ... 1982. Anway, there would be blizzard warnings in Van Burren and Barry Co, while we mocked flurries. Obviously they're not getting blizzard down there in the SE zones, but it does show how life of LE or OE ... is a game of some win some none by a big distinction.

Mm... I'd say it's 'good' actually ... just sayn'. Cuz it has a pretty obvious cluster bias over the NW envelope, which means the spread is smearing that way.

Well, wait a minute ..hold it hold it hold it. Why are we turning phrases like that over a system that's day 9 ? ... The euro did finally cave on this weekend aspect at D4 which has always been it's better arena: the < D4.5 ... I wonder if some of all this is rabble roused reputation milling, then of course time solidifies it as "fact" I guess it's like in baseball, 'you're only as goods as your last at bat'

Well ... guess we got us a legit storm signaled now LOL... No, but now that all three camps carry the card - that's something. We can let it marinate in the runs. Unless the signal is "one of those," we don't want it perfect as winter storm enthusiasts, this far in advance anyway.. Because, unless it is "one of those," a storm in the D9 range seldom survives model grenades over time, ending up some mangled variation of what was once so appealing ..

zactly! That ( bold ..) is probably why one sees a lot of that effect in alpine video of dim sun backdrop and frontage like slow motion swarming bumblebees. They haven't had time to collide and normalize

This is just a fantastic photo!

Yeah... I don't have any opine farther out in time... In fact, I'm wondering if the Feb is up in the air. I realize the Weeklies threaten another 80 mid month ( "half" snark) ... but the America telecons are split ... and we've seen the Weeklies prove their futility in the past. I think the SSW is dead for now... ugh. It looked promising? it did, but, I've noticed after a week of monitoring the GEFs are can kicking while modulating warming lower... It's like how many correlations have stop working since 2010 ? holy hell -

What's complicating is you running out to 260+ hours to tell us the 06z was better for the system around Jan 30 that we've been discussing. I guess you turned the page on us LOL

How's that a comparison between 18, 00z and 06z ? That's not telling us anything - or what am I looking at

Thing is ...I looked over the 06z and it didn't look good to me - can you demo that? The 18z yesterday was intriguing,...00z less so, and the 06z even less - that's what I saw. I'm a little confused

I'm kinda in Pope's camp on that Tues aspect... I don't speak to snow totals per se, but I mean I see where he's coming from. And he's right about the operational GFS, a model that ranges between N/stream bias to just having an attitude of disrespecting S/stream features in general. Lol Seriously, even if the S/stream S/W is conserved, "IF" the N/stream is nuanced-less compressing at the time that thing zips up out of the TV toward S of New England, than a GGEM solution certainly enters the discussion. We should note that the Clipper aspect, did have - originally when we began tracking it ... - question related to how it may or not interact with the southern stream.. It appears we're heading toward a result where the clipper actually outruns and doesn't interfere in either way, and the S/stream may just as well work on us using it's own devices. It's a real real needle threader -one requiring the GFS not be N/stream mash happy, so we'll see.

For the record ...I don't believe we were assessing much more than that? - originally, I wasn't. It was a clipper being watched as the next credible "anything" really.

This appears to me to be a toned down version of the Bible bomb we saw on the 12z run yesterday ... It really takes a similar track, just not as deep, the mechanics perhaps 70% of what yesterday's buzz saw was working with. And as Will or whomever that was pointed out about the U/A, it's largeness, then expanding as it comes N, we sort of trade yesterday's intensity for mass and still ends up with a major impact... Again, this to me is a real event out there... probably the next thread-able eventually but now isn't it

Haven’t loaded em on my phone. Had to chauffeur sister to radiology her cancer stuff and those graphics’ URL I know of don’t bootstrap/weren’t designed for this interface so was gonna wait for the 12s later in the day.

3-cycle trend of the GEFs reversed overnight … but EPS goes the other way - a little hm Numerical telecon (GEFs) have split with 1/3 of the members newly offering conceptual space for eastern amplitude. The previous renditions were not. So that method moved ‘a little’ in amp direction despite the graphical illustration … Plus with the EPS … it could all just be typical mind game where detection leads to finding least excuse to conceal —> perhaps come back. Time will tell. I was thinking to just let the 30th ride but these are significant hints that something’s there.

ICON about to go boom at the end of this run

Make what up - what are we looking at?