Typhoon Tip

Basically over the last 24 to 36 hours worth of GFS runs it has been flopping all over the place.

I wonder if the Euro comes in more stable … cyclone within comparative marginal consistency for positions and pressure depths and so forth. This is the stage of the game where the Euro’s 4-D variable normalization system may come in handy because that’s what it’s designed to do it’s designed to stop irrelevant perturbation from causing increased error out in time. These other guidance seem to be suffering from giga motions

That’s funny because crass in fact means crudely developed and unsophisticated LOL

It’s five days away … five. Expectations may be too high. We’re also saturated with too many model choices half of which are unstable performers. I don’t think I ever remember consistently weather charts being correct at day five 1980s 1990s 2000s or the last decade. confidence is high for a significant storm - If we stop at that, then models are going to nail it; they and the signals that we use all that were very well laid out. It’s gonna take time for this either come together perfectly or come together less than perfectly or whatever it does

We presently have 3/4 mi vis chalk dust

It seems everything else is locked and loaded. It’s just the handling of that southern S/W - very inconsistent model handling with that particular feature. Whether that gets ejected or stays behind is very critical and how this whole thing is going to evolve along ir astride the eastern seaboard. It doesn’t wanna consistently get ejected sometimes yes… sometimes it’s being left behind like in this recent icon run - it all but entirely abandons it which looks weird but who knows…

Oh yeah .. wait 'til-ya see the next name change - keep pushin' LOL

Why would the 18z GFS ... dictate anything though - it was a continuity break. c'mon man... Well, maybe there are those that don't know this but continuity disruption, with no prior support, is typically tossed until support is introduced. That's 101

Yeah there's no question ..this GFS run slipped the phase with the southern stream; immediately it translates to later bloom - removing also the MA from contention while doing so, and rending most impact to eastern NE at less so, too. Noticing off the bat a signficant structural change between Hawaii and California/west coast, causing the ridge to re-position W and less amp.. This is allowing the southern aspect to cut back SW farther than previous runs ...that sets the stage for abandoning it when the N stream then amplifies. It's a significant large continuity break so I'd take it with a caution pending further support. ... that wold be my suggestion for now.

Those might be more mutually exclusive charts than at first guess. The majority of that snow might have fallen/cumulative before that point of time, and then the warm layer comes in briefly but erodes away...etc... That low is not going W of Boston imho, and that's the ball game on the warm layer west of the location probably on the next frame or the one right after. In other words, damage done with a later of zr/pl in there.

Yeah totally but from this range I mean it's in play - course.. heh, how 'manageable' is 960 mb low move NW during the day on a retro slug motion. I remember living in Rockport, the old annuls about 1978 were that it was the 2nd tide that was a monster because of a similar motion. That's always stuck to my memory.

WPC: "...Close to the immediate Atlantic coastline, strong winds combined with high astronomical tides may lead to coastal flooding. Please continue to monitor for future updates as this system develops..." This is an under the present scope of awareness, major problem. It's one thing to hat astronomical tide ... but coupling that with surface pressure depths approaching historic proportions, and the real possibility of a brief retro toward the coast near max... this could be headline material -

Again... the Euro may be in the throws of adjustment. It literally just joined the party at 00z last night, being only vaguely in support of any event at all for many cycles prior. Just because it jumps on board.. I mean it's outside it's higher scoring range.

Heh.. wasn't that that storm where the run up had a Euro cycle ( mind you, back before confidence in that model started to get rattled...so everyone had to believe it - right), back in 24" clear to western NJ ... prompting blizzard warnings and SOE statements from the mayor of NYC? 2" .... priceless

mm...someone's under a pivoting 4-6"/hr mega band there ... The frontogen would be pressed to the roof -

Hilarious ... that's actually been the most consistent model, all essence, since it came into range..

That is an early attempting signal for a slow down ... if not stalls ... small loop or 'hesitation' in stride while it maxes and couples with the mid levels.

Noise ... But jesus - if this N/stream modulation were to be real AND the tucking SW boots more east...

Uh, they are a part of the megalopolis, but ... of the whole, they are the lower probability at this point in time. This could continue to evolve sooner was my point..

I have been noticing that too - what's up with that... wow. That' swath could lay in 1-3" from PA-SNE/CNE before anything associated with storm kinematics arrive.

I'm strongly suspecting this is evolving into total Megalopolis concern now that I'm seeing the 'nuances' of the last 3 cycles of the GEFs mean/spread products, and how they are cyclonically improving their circumvallate over the lower/interior M/A region... As of 12z, there are members if 978 mb abeam of the VA Cape, close enough to the coast ( then considering/knowing the ongoing jet coupling aloft at that time ~ 114 hrs) to assume there is an explosive expansion of primitive CCB head snow over ROA-DCA ... destined to PHL-NYC-HFD-BOS-CON-PWM. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the EPS didn't give off the same tenor -

Why do you live is SE anus Massachusetts ?

Heh... none of those members are over land though ...that I can tell in that depiction there anyway- That right there implies some kind of eccentrically intense lateral thermal gradient between Ocean modulated air... A-priori, that typically aligns on from Marblehead to Cambridge to NE RI ...something like that. 36 F wet snow/cat-paw vacillation east, 22-27F within 2 or 4 miles W of the sharp boundary is white miasma

I just happen to remember ... but it came hugely west on over previous cycle ( 00z)...

Obscene! also... a classic signature