Typhoon Tip

The continuity between these GFS runs is nothing short of extraordinary

It actually didn’t look like the GFS really was that much colder in the larger synoptic base, either. So what it’s really doing is it just has an exceptionally dense b clinic interface extending between Michigan in Central New England and the problem is is that once you lobe that kind of air mass around those green and white mountains it’s going to come all the way down to New Jersey. …and that’s why we get that look in there. But if one steps back from orbit that’s really still a warm sort of layout …and I know it sounds like it’s paradoxic. it’s just how our local Geo physical features kind of give us an advantage when it comes to tucking. Play this case of GFS is tucking a paste air mass. And it really is something how different that is between central New Jersey and Worcester Massachusetts 18z of the 25th.

32/30 mod uniform small particle snow. 1/2” on car and hand rails with whitening in yards. Noticing a large area of 30 and 31 home station readings showing up W-S of here. Another inch of this then glaze would verify an advisory. We’ll see

Snow is commenced here at this end if Rt 2 up here in northern Middlesex county 34/27 Sn type is very very small and uniform

Just from an orbital perspective … it would be unlikely from this starting calendar time to sustain. Having said that … there’s been vacillating going on in that time range beyond Thanksgiving … which is fine and normal but … there are numerical telecons that favor colder looks. Modestly more confidence falls in that court.

Sorry “hygroscopic” It’s a process of moisture mixing with dry air as it is used in Met parlance. Thermodynamically… that takes energy which lowers the temperature. Wet bulbing

Yeah that’s why I call this a mini bust… I mean it’s going to flip over I still think there’s a period of ice where it gets of evap cooling interior. Secondary going south is pretty much guarantees a low 30s show

I argue that the Nam has a Northwest biased much of the time so it’s the apt model that picks up a warm solution when it happens because it happen to be Northwest - that’s what I’m saying it’s right for the wrong reasons? I’ve always thought so and today? Yeah I kind of agree with you anyway I don’t even know if today really qualifies. This is so far a little mini positive bust based on guidance probably underestimating the cold air for some reason. We’re also doing some hydroscopic feedback

It doesn’t though… And I can explain why it only seems that way but nobody really wants to listen or gonna care

I was getting sick of hearing about the NAM-superior warm tongue theory …thank God the other shoe fell

Beautiful vantage !

Looking at the cheap old school classic it's one of these deals where you're scratching your head at no snow

Mid level thrust has only gotten stronger as this has gotten closer over the last 48 hours. … Said thrust originating west of us, that doesn’t bode well for deep layer thickness if one is holding out for colder profiles. But anyway even back then it didn’t look very encouraging for me …that’s why I told people more icing at least in southern New England. As it unfolds in central northern yeah maybe it’s getting warmer down the stretch too. Havent looked. This whole system is really more about the winter Synoptics and this being the first time for this early it’s a great entry … a good practice event. Currently observing an emerging signal around the 24th or 28th of the month

One has to dive into what are called “release notes” - most likely given a formal publication name for that space. For those products they are complex …very involving. It’s not very accessible to encapsulation inside a sentence or two like that. Lol unless somebody wants to be a wise ass and just say, ‘not get worse’ All you have to do is go on Google and type … I dunno, something like “European forecast model upgrades purpose” and you’re likely to get into a more comprehensive expose then in here.

Kind of interesting… as an aside despite passing through this pretty impressive negative EP over the next 3 to 4 days, the actual 850 mbar spread across the Canadian shield is not really that representative. I mean we benefit as cold enthusiast for actually getting transport from those regions but this EPO doesn’t seem to be loading as deeply - perhaps because it’s early in the season but I’m not sure. I mean the sun has set over the polar cap casting the 6 mo “eternal” darkness up there… I mean there should be plenty of cold genesis going on. Maybe this is one of those times were lacking cryo- does have a feedback? If that 0ZGFS is onto that next huge negative EPO burst out there in the extended… It’s also not modeled to have very impressive -850 mb anomalies.

Oh I agree lol I just meant that I get a little bit nervous paranoia when I see the retrograde starting to happen. Like I said “doesn’t mean it’s automatically terrible or bad” and it depends also what’s going on all around. …having said that… My experience over the years is that we’re better off with the description I provided before, rather than just getting a big block parked like an elephant‘s ass east of James Bay. Not that anyone in present company is thinking so… but feel that there is that misconception, perhaps a vestige of those 1990s hoopla surrounding the NAO when it first busted press and became the whole popular meme of the day

I’m probably in the minority but as a winter storm enthusiast I’m not too keen on blocking over Greenland punching southwest into the Maritimes like that… But I guess we can get into relative weighting and so forth to really qualify that - in other words …yeah, it depends on what’s going on all around it. It doesn’t mean it’s automatically terrible or bad, I just would rather not The hangup I’m having with it is that we go from the storm track redirect to a storm track suppression scenario with very narrow window. It’s probably why studies like H.A. from way way back in the day demoed that index modality is when the systems happen …less during stable index modes… But that gets into a tl;dr… I mean the entire study is really intuitive: if a given system is in stasis (mode) no storms; disrupt that mode (modality) …storm I kind a like middling height +hgt anomalies that take place NE-E of James Bay … more indirectly footed in blocking over Greenland but not the boulder itself. You see field swell and recede over the course of 300 hrs … perhaps a couple of times in the mid/upper atmosphere. The occurrence of that is probably more a reflection of the non-linear wave response off the Pacific but that’s really getting complex … Anyway, when that happens more modestly like that we tend/allow more dynamic stream interplay in the Ohio valley-MA-NE sandbox … better storm production that way.

Yeah that 0Z oper GFS goes seemingly historic with EPO in the deep range. I mentioned this yesterday… Seems to be a hemispheric war going on/reflected in the models, between the will of the polar indices vs the will of the ENSO. They are in a bit of a diametric states. I’m just kind of musing with that… But sometimes -ENSO winters do represent early before getting sucky later on so it could just be part of all that too

Kind of surprised by that. insane frost here at 21/21 …. Even ORH was 25 … The old Logan goose?

Uh. Wiener … weenie? Didn’t think it was that difficult

Kielbasa look at that ...it ends as 4-7" after a light rain --> moderate icing --> heavy sleet. It's a full spectrum fantasy.

There's something there ... 23-28th... take your pick of which ensemble member, about 2/3rds of them carry the membership on something during those days.. But ( duh ) they vary quite a bit. There's limited next to N/S in figuring out what "that" will be, with range between cutters, to Del Marva bombs. I'm willing to side a bit more with Will on the NAO. Though whether it's orienting west or eastern limb, not withstanding... The co-lateral polar index mode (the conjunction of the AO and NAO) is in fact negative and continuing to slide - albeit -1 SD by then. But the trend line's established in that range now for few days of consistency. The AO counterpart is the intriguing aspect, as it has coincided with the MJO extended out look along their correlative handshake. The problem is...the MJO is not being very consistent - last nights Euro suite sort of stymied stem-wound it again in 7 and lost that unfurled look heading into the phase 8. It's like there's an epic battle between the AO and the subordinate WPO-EPO-NAO indexes versus the ENSO ...which they are in pretty much a direct competing phase state right now/thru these next couple of weeks. Not sure what to do about that...I feel if the ENSO wasn't interfering so negatively we be doing a 1995er. No ...neither of these index modes cause a storm... The idea here is is that one state detracts from potential, the other adds...

Nothings really changed… Better snow chances are C -northern New England. 38/21 Full sun. Winter atmosphere with ease this hr In the interest of now casting this thing probably watch the behavior of advection over the next 24 hours. And also it’s not so far-fetched to monitor the environmental feedback‘s… Such as if it’s clear tonight and decoupled it’s going to bottom out … then, we may actually “ CAC” tomorrow morning …end up with a low level boundary layer cold feedback that way. I think that for people north of Hartford and west of I 495 in Massachusetts up to SE VT and S NH theres a potential for some ice. it’s a good practice event… In a month we probably frontload this event with better snow performance… at least per guidance look. And there’s still some small chance of this thing busting colder so long as the high is draped north and the low does cut southeast

The whole 50 mb this 10 mb that etc recent, low earth orbit altitudes, strikes me as trying to correlate anything imaginable that might ultimately enhance the probability of getting 300 inches of snow in sub-forum’s regional backyard ha ha. That’s like the end goal… forget everything else in between. Like the fact that there’s an entire troposphere of fractals between here and there. i’m just trying to be tongue-in-cheek a little. But still… all the research I’ve done indicates that variations in the structure of the vortex at those extreme altitudes really don’t have a very strong correlation to anything that happens below unless there are very certain/specific metrical observations ongoing … none of which are likely to happen, because there are too many other variances that have greater physical exertion and noise within the total depths below, which overwhelm the circuitry much of the time.

yeah...I think these "ticks" are likely for the next several cycles. probably we'll lock tomorrow evening... then now cast. Welcome to marginal season.