Typhoon Tip

Overall that was a damn warm GFS run at 500mb. even weakens that trough out there. Brings the heat wave Scott and I were talking about for the 12

82 here now... 45 to 82 Dp is 40

For 18z Saturday, Euro left ... GFS right

mm hm https://phys.org/news/2025-06-wildfire-hazy-skies-massachusetts-air.html

Pretty dense band of smoke over the eastern Lakes/upstate NY. We appear circumstantially protected for now but I’m wondering if that may get involved tomorrow …

That’s what I’m wondering … if/when the temp correlates. Maybe even how the particle physics works in that, but keeping it simple. … which circumstantially would also have dependency on accuracy for where the plumes will be located/density in time ….

does anyone have any insight/knowledge into specifically modeling accuracy for smoke ?

Heh 25 deg rise and it's only 9 and change. impressive 45 to 70

yeeee up

man, we've been really lucky dodging the smoke... It's still curving around this trough that won't die this morning looking at vis loops.

next heat signal ..maybe the 11-13th

Looks like verrry subtly there's a tendency there to weaken the whole weekend morass too - maybe that'll continue and it'll deconstruct into just daily convection around a dying front. Sunday still looks good - seems to be the models are still spraying solutions wrt Saturday. The flow is weak/forcing is weak, so the model physics get more chaotic Before then ...looks like one of those 89.4/91/89.5 type of "heat wave". First truly elevated DPs though. Even if T's hold to the mid 80s a DP above 65, that is a circumstance no one in NE that hasn't traveled has experienced since last summer.

Yeah go team save Scott’s sanity. Ha

18 ZGFS looks pretty good for Saturday …has the front pounding PF’s butt but it’s warm sector southeast of there

I guess any time you got a Packman low eating its way down a warm front you can gets some repeaters ... yeah maybe

ha ... I didn't mean to imply I thought it looked that way either - I was asking if you personal attitude would improve if the drama in severe were added back ... I'm guessin' yes?

how about if it's training severe ... nickle hail 3 times with incredible rain rates and overlapping multi-pulser CG bombs ...otherwise still 76/72-like

I've come to find that the error goes in both directions ... They'll error too high on the regional totals ( actually), while down to a handful of towns and counties get Leominstered Over did the synoptics, but under did the local thunderstorm - but since the latter is inside the regional bounded area, it falsely props up the regional result. So two wrongs does make a right -

https://phys.org/news/2025-06-spain-highest-temperature.html https://phys.org/news/2025-06-uk-registers-warmest-weather.html

Good song

Heh... despite my conservative tone this morning - which I still suspect is warranted - the NAM arrives with a 90 F at least implicated in the FOUS grid 54000492730 -2403 212012 71261912 I don't expect anyone to know what these numerics are supposed mean - mainly because I've written, with pain staking detail, what those definitions are at least 20 times ( ). Anyway, that profile for 18z on Wednesday would 89 to 91 over down town streets and parking lots...ranging to 82 or 84 where the hill people down play heat. sarcasm aside ...I'm not sure the NAM physics has smoke contamination built in ? maybe Brian or someone knows.

Folks probably don't give a ratz ass how and why it rains on weekends at this point. The frustration doesn't care... But, I'm seeing this weekend's rain potential as more typically of summer - not being inundated with cold and NE flow type bs fwiw - There may be a warm/stationary front sort of stalled ALB to PSM type axis, like the current blend of the Euro/GFS, and associated rain/thunder ... More typical of 42 deg N latitude in early June. That setup is normal synoptic frontal traffic this time of year. We get fronts... it's normal during both outstanding weather years, and piece of shit years, and all qualities in between. Cannot remove passing fronts, cool or warm, at this time of year. It would in fact be abnormal to have a big ridge anomaly with the westerlies and fronts all displayed way w-n ... If/when that ever sets up, that's more of a July and August thing. I get it that 12 weeks in a row of rain on weekends is some kind of maddening fractal ... I think the GGEM is full of shit... I'd take a blend of the Euro and GFS. If S of said axis above ... humid and warm with thunder in region. If your N of that, like Scott was saying ... rain intervals with thunder on Saturday. But mild-like. I would not take present depiction as gospel, anyway. The boundary could reposition N or S by 100 mb from this range.

it's been interesting observing this unseasonable trough protect our region from smoke. The larger synoptic circulation associate with has kind of rampart the outside environment from getting into the interior trough axis. Folks may wanna keep in mind that today is the last day of said protecting... Not sure how/if smoke may factor into these "warm" days this week. MOS/machine guidance appears reasonable to me - normally I'd go a tick or two above during a recovery period in early Junes but trend to always be on the lowest side of correlations ( since last December really... ) always seems to find a way to perpetuate itself and this rendition it grabs a hold of smoke to perhaps keep us from making the illustrious 90 mark Wed/Thur haha. I mean like this spring's comically deducing means to prevent heat from materializing - despite the verified numbers ( relatively...)

mm mentioned this yesterday but this thing is really sub-standard synoptic in scale. It's between meso and synoptic .. in Met we used to refer to that range as 'meso-beta' scaled. There's an intense rain ball over SE NY with warning headlines... and then these spokes like being on the east side of a tropical system racing N - meant as metaphor ...don't get your buns lubed with mustered. Anyway, the models appeared yesterday to be more spread out/interpretive over what was actually happening at the time, and so far that's translated up to being a more localized impact. One other aspect, we were commenting on the depth of the low pressure... I think this whole construct was misleading a bit... The low was developing in a region that was already 998 mb/negative regional anomaly with a broad surface trough in place. You take that initial condition and the low goes down 10 mb and suddenly you got something in the mid 980s... but it's really 1000mb low