Typhoon Tip

It's aight - This message ^^ above is more lucid and intelligent. But the previous exchange(s) were intended for constructively informing you, you are slipping from the central voice in here - in hopes to elicit some sort of awareness on your part. It was not abundantly clear you understood the ramification/connection of the dots on that stuff. This above shows you understand - good. Start with adjective herding... don't use the word blizzard - Listen, there's a short list of verified blizzard condition events, per year, spread out over the entire country. Any one given location has a very low probability of ever seeing one in a given winter. That should/could suggest how often it is really "utilitous" to refer to any given mid or extended range event as a blizzard. Almost never... If you disclaimer your self as an artist or story teller of sorts...that's entirely fine - in fact, you have a native flare there ( perhaps). But when one drops these a-bomb dystopic thrill seeking winter nuke posts, that just don't really follow from or match, as though to be taken seriously, that doesn't leave folks much to go with.

The best that I can tell ... from that particular source there is almost 0 filtration through Meteorological machinery in the formulation of post content. There's some vague toe-hold on reality, only for the that the user starts with a chart, but from there....? It's really like sitting through a Looney Tunes day dream of "Ralph Phillips" Eventually ...if this has not already begun to happen, this individual will start getting ignored altogether if he doesn't modulate his tact ... I tried constructively to warn him of that destiny, yet he replied with post like, "Yeeeeeah I don't think that's gonna happen" I don't know what you call that. "Pull the gun out of your mouth or you might blow your head off" --> "yeeeeah I don't think that's gonna happen." It is what it is

Looks the same as it did yesterday when I brought this up ... ... an emerging signal for amplitude now ~ day 6 - 8.5, but the last 24 hours of runs haven't provided much confidence in what that will be. It may only express aloft. I was looking at the individual members of the GEFs and about half have some impressive evolutions at 500 mb, from the MA to off the NE coast ...roughly D7 .. 7.5, but then you go look at the sfc? garbage - Still appears destructive interference is going on out there ... which may or may not limit this potential. The big bag of trough garbage in the mid range that wobbles and contorts its way through the east does two things: one...it normalizes the thermodynamic gradient but perhaps more importantly, the wave space between its aft/exit aspect wrt to the amplitude diving in, is too short. Because of that, the wave coming in can't pop crucial lead roll-out ridging, such that would feed back ...slow down, situate/cross up jet axis ... blah blah big storm. The GGEM nicely exemplifies this type of 'starvation' result. It slowly deepens a middling low over 18 hours. It has spring snow in mid level forcing... All this could modulate more developed, but the total wave spacing needs to either open up ...or less emphasis in general in handling the mid range ...such that it doesn't evacuate ambient baroclinicity and/or back-impose wave spacing contention.

It looks to me like we have an emerging signal from the mid Atlantic to coastal New England, ~ D7.5 thru 9.5, but of what? There is likely to be L/W amplitude positioning thru the eastern continent during the time frame; that much is actually above confidence for me. But there is all kind of destructive interference ...that really begins much sooner in the individuals operational versions, and blends of all. The trouble is, the models are bunching a lot of noise on the front side of that more important period of time. The D4.5 - 6.5 period features a sort of typical spring climate, half commitment bag of trough that in itself is tussling with internal mechanics. That whole mess then advects stage right, cleansing away the thermodynamics Better player mechanics then arrive into a dearth of baroclinic instability ... ends up less. Not for not, ~ 1/3 of the GEF individual ( 00z ) members, manage to engineer at least a middling low that strafes the MA to NE region thru the above time range - slow mover. Spring blue judging by the marginal appeal/540 < hydrostatic height coverage while that is happening. The others don't do this/ keep destructively interfering.

IMHO the NAO might be partial but the mor important change is the PNA bouncing around positive every three to five days aft of the recent -EPO that’s long gone, but residually, having loaded cold in Canada, this could lead to trouble That could mean bowling trouble … pretty much hitting climo too. 18z almost parroted the 12z Euro in the fantasy range … Not a testament to possibility … yet, but a testament to the vulnerability in the physics right now for these possible deep pinch lows

O K out of no where … 1 pandemic 2 nearly avoiding a nuke exchange 3 then a biblical cap failure sends a 20 foot sea level rise all over the world only that tsunamis doesn’t wash back … bring in the locusts I guess

That‘s that gust of it yup.

You know what that is... ...that is merely missing a S. stream zygote disturbance to fertilize, because if it had that... it would be historically competing with 1888

Now this is a bowling ball !

Here's what's going to happen... The broken line of convection will orient into a linear feature and propagate into western zones later this evening, pushing an outflow out ahead ...and that will scour out this shit ...or perhaps even ride over the top... but it will at least assist in doing so... Then, as the main cold front comes in the aft, it the brief gradient packing ahead will do the rest and there will be a mix-down T spike like 5 minutes before the front goes through neighborhoods ... .... at which time Kevin will either be already asleep, or ... posting how the models were right about the warm front busting in to NE Mass.

despite your narrative on the day's proceedings... the boundary has not appreciably retreated back N as a warm front - sorry if reality and empirical data doesn't fit. Don't blame the messenger. I mean ..there might be some mixing along that leading edge there on the right panel ...but that is not attributed to warm fronting. The winds have to go essentially calm where you see the wind is not calm and blowing from the NE with those wind flags - Can't help you. This probably does break down as the main front tied into the baroclinic axis is moving through... You'll get a 10 minute T spike then a west wind or something. If we wanna argue the BD front won't make it to CT, I never said it would. I said it isn't clear whether it will or won't.

Well well well well... PF finally gets to feel our low elevation, east of the Berks April pain lol

It's interesting ... - this study really quite exquisitely corroborates my own observations regarding the 'pattern behavior' of the continental circulation mode, of particularly mid to late spring into early summer, over the Ohio Valley, ...through southern/southeastern Canada and the northeast U.S. - as well as the upper Mid Atlantic. These regions, ...usually between late April and the beginning of Junes ( over the last decade ), have experience unusual episodic heat departures, those with higher non-hydrostatic 500 mb geopotential heights associted. However, rather atypical relative to day time temperature extremes, the hydrostatic heights ( referred to commonly as 'thickness' ) are lower. This is reflected in lower DPs, with lower night time lows, ... giving rise to unusually vast diurnal changes due to radiative forcing ( sun ). They don't have to be heat waves, per se? Just lows of 48 with highs of 87 will make the point. 41 to 80 ...etc. Extreme diurnal changes where the atmosphere is kinetically charged, but lacks the moisture input to store latency, ...such that nighttime lows would remain elevated. We don't see that near the coast, because the SE flow tendency is loading theta-e proficiently into these latter regions. I've been noticing this, and suspecting that is the cause, and so... quite refreshing to see this study's presentation corroborate that. What is interesting also... I have posted material, replete with annotations, showing how there appears to be an increasing tendency for ridging nodes to set up near Quebec, as a year -to- year repeating spring theme ( roughly in that date range above). This creates a W wind at locations such as Watertown NY to Burlington VT to Montreal, QUE and further out through the lower/SW Martime, while there was that SE flow coming into the mid Atlantic underneath this nodal circulation mode, keeping those regions from experience higher afternoon temperatures. There were a few years in the last decade, where in one or two events ... Burlington VT was as high as the middle or upper 90s, while it was only 82 to 84 between DCA and Philly... I have a hypothesis on what is driving these circulation oddities... and it relates also to why the NAO domain quadrature of the Annular Mode has been dominating the positive phase state... but that's extends this into another area having to do with the expansion(ing) Hadley Cell.

I'm really saddened that I did not get my resource shit together younger in life ...and/or wasn't born into a trust fund. This is precisely the garbage that Will and I were commiserating over last month, where it's time to book the flight and flee in haste to the 2nd home or villa ...some other place where the skies are painted with tipped cumulus, over short sleeve golf weather. Not to return until mid May, or such time as it is exceptionally high confidence that the weather breaks. Stealing from Samuel Clemens, ' The coldest winter I ever experienced was a spring in Southern New England ' He was talking about the Bay Area, but the sentiment veraciously applies here, too

It's really just the bottom 2,000 foot of the atmosphere, too. Look at the spine of the Greens in western VT nearly 60.

Using the un-official home sites, c/o Wunder ... this is where the BD appears to be right now... Perhaps masked a bit by clouds and morning showers, belaying the temp rise somewhat S-W of the front, but it's close to this Otherwise ...we'd probably squeeze back into the 60s today, and with more DP it'd feel quite a bit different than that destiny N-E of that nasty boundary. The models busted here... It's interesting that the NAM had pulled back on this front in the last 2 or 3 cycles of runs. It kept the wind at Logan S and that did not happen from 06z thru now - not even close.

Depends where one is in this murk today. I realize you got a thread going but we ain't gettin shit NE of HFD in this ... and it's not clear this BD won't make it that far, either. Might be safe..not sure. It's 57 there, with modest DP support and S wind... But it's 45 in ORH with NE satan's rhea... This is busting SW as BD's typically do for us up here - as far as I can tell at this hour. I guess we'll see how far it gets. I suppose 'elevate' activity could orange lightning here and there... sure.

I am too - not doubt. Sure. But it also depends how deep the blue gets ... I mean I'm not trying to be a condescending dick with the wink there, but I'm sort of put off by shit this morning. CPC was selling us this momentum in the MJO stuff this week, and that it'd likely couple with the La Nina footprint , to yield at warmer anomaly over eastern N/A moving toward the later phases of the month. Frankly, what print - I find that recurring turn of phrase of theirs to be increasingly bullshitty. They either don't know what the f they are looking at ... even as mid-aged Master's holders with years of experience, or they are lying in a 'marketing of significance' campaign ultimately to keep funding their jobs! Because for the 15th time....what happens, the opposite. MJO is dying in the progs now not even making it to phase 5. Weee... momentum - right? Same deal different devil... That has been a leitmotif the last 10 f years and counting, where that technology can't seem to stay coupled with the ENSO, or proves utterly unstable and unreliable. Why are they continuing to sell that coverage/monitoring? That's why I wonder if some of these PDFs are on-going PR to keep their value and salaries going. Heh... okay okay. I'm p.o.ed and exaggerating and being a-hole here ...just bear with me while I vent. LOL ... I'm sure they're all great guys and gals and geniuses... fine - So, the MJO dies... and we just end up back sloshing into blocking after all? It just more than seems we've been here and done this, ...over and over and over ...nth times. It just seems we've also been dealt reverses - I'm almost willing to bet that the moment I click send, the 12z will come out and show it going warm after all. And around and around we go.

HFD 54, S wind BOS 43, NE wind ORH is also 45 NE wind... There's a BD between ORH and HFD, and given to the fact that the wind is still blowing actively at the surface, inland in the cold air, it is still moving SW. I wonder if just as the sky brightens and it's looking good for CT, that is when they also get bent over by this pos front. Maybe maybe not...

I don't know why this made me laugh - ...maybe because that "putrocity" out the window right now, limps us into conceding that today pretty much doesn't exist. ho man - I kinda warned of this... You know, yesterday was as toxic as it was an amazing as a high. I guess it was one too many gin and tonics, because reality the next morning? We may not see 75 again until mid April looking at the meaningless, no winter gain cold catastrophe that is that weirdly on-purpose piece of shit suite of model runs over night - 'how to get it as miserably cold relative to not snowing.' Sometimes I wonder if psyches would be better off if it stayed head-jammed up ass bad weather until it really breaks for real. I doubt it will improve much here in the Nashoba/Merrimack Valley region of NE Mass as far as today goes. We've back doored and it appears to have at least a little real momentum. The models were hem hawing over this boundary the last couple of days, and then backed off - which I thought was odd against climate, but also because there is unbalanced +PP up in Maine. The NAM even backed off, and kept Logan's wind S through the overnight and this morning, which they're 43 with ENEasties - yuck. Subtle tree sway and taut flags pointing SW here reveals this thing isn't done - my experience is that if there is any of these observable aspects in the environment at dawn, the warm air WILL FAIL to come back. Having suffered the vagaries of this anus climate that is this time of year, for so many years ... I have never seen actual cold momentum, reverse. So yeah... should be great .... some other day.

Well ... you did encourage "Thoughts?" so Two retorts: One, so what? I don't understand this logic, because it strikes me as not understanding, or taking seriously ...or believing ...what ever is the misconception, the inevitability of the crisis. One that ends in finite circumstance, the other side of which money is irrelevant. It is one where we and countless other species are dead. Because of that... Two, I don't believe choice of geography is any kind of panacea to the crisis of the CC. Metaphor: We don't go to the top of the hill and continue to engage in aspects that cause the water to rise, thinking we "might" not be causing the flood. We stop what we are doing until that is proven, because what is at stake, is your death. This is not a human problem. This is an Earth biosphere problem. We are inextricably dependent upon the vitality of countless interacting life. CC is killing at all scales along the spectrum, because it is occurring faster than adaptation rates. D(t) > d(evolution) = extinction. That is a basic equation that has played out on this planet, based upon all scientific paleoclimatology and epoch reconciliation studies there are, over and over and over again. So, what are we doing? we are observing the d(T) > adaptation rates ..which is tantamount to exceeding evolution. This can't end well, at global scale. As an afterthought ... this weird money thing. Money is an illusion. It is not real. It is only become socially, we all agree it has value - it does not have any intrinsic realness in/to Nature. It is not a fundamental law, like PV=NRT, or E=MC2, or C2 = A2 + B2 ... the 7 basic principles of quantum mechanics, without the consistency of which everything as we know them break down. It all just comes back to the same aspect we hammered page and pages to years ago. This is all because climate change and it's perils are too slow moving for the human senses to compel a change. That's it. At the individual level ...integrating the whole groups, integrating the population masses, CC has too few real time live "corporeal advocates" If one walked out their front door in the morning, and immediately was punched in the nose by heat fist, they probably wouldn't take a whole week, much less 50 years, to change their f point of view on the veracity of CC. I keep hearing suggestions and narratives that really dance around acceptance. We can't do what we have been doing. That is the truth. Nothing else. Moving the problem from one location to another, within the same total manifold of Earth's system, does nothing to fix the Globally integrated problem. Since we know mathematically human activity is at least contributing, we can't keep doing it in the off chance that the amount allows us to keep profligating. The logical thing to do, is stop doing it until you can prove otherwise.

Well...it's not my post, per se ... well, kinda. I was asked what my native language was - which I assumed to be in question because there might have been some silly grammar/spl things that I didn't bother with... anyway, that turned in klingons this vulcans that ... doesn't matter ultimately

Maybe... Tuesday looks like a huge reality check. Thankfully it is shorter lived... Looks like one of those air masses that knifes in for 18 hours and rolls away. Maybe 30s with high winds, then 40s with light winds on Wednesday - something like that... You know, in some ways ...one is better without a day like this, this ridic early. Obviously ...one knows this is not reliable/sustainable -duh. It's never about that. But, still, being human, it makes it's hard when the other shoe falls. One year, I think it was 2010 ... we had a shit March with a ton of flooding. Cold and windy and raw with 4 coastals that dumped 5" of rain, each, spanning 3 weeks - kind of like May 2005, but in March, and each storm more intense. ...None were snow by the way... But, I remember early April, this crazy warm front came through and it was like a 40s one day, 80s the next...and the season really never went back deeper than the 60s and in fact, that was a hot spring overall after that. exceedingly rare ... That's how you want it done.

welp ...that now 4 years out of the last 6, spanning different ENSO this... solar that... AMO this... PDO that... ...where we've gone bizzaro heat at least once prior to the Equinox. 72 to 75 presently, on March 18 ... It's not as extreme as 83 like it did 2 our of those 4 times... but it's absurd enough, and eerily dependable.