Typhoon Tip

Quick statement wrt to the model contention (EPS vs the GEFs...). The GFS lineage does not lend to its being a better performing tool during retrograde/slowing patterns. Even in recent years... have personally noted that it still routinely is sped up over all other guidance by mid range, and what starts out as a small deviation from consensus, and almost unseen ... aggregates out in time. I've also noted that it's integrated colder heights are also deeper by small margins that grow in time ... By D10, it is almost always colder on the polar side of the ambient jet - for better or worse - comparing to its competing guidance sources. I realize the Euro has come under question, but ..the proof is in the here and now. One model has been more stable than the other, and the other's instability fits the above problems that I strongly argue it still has - however subtle those may be in a point to point analysis. Integration of tiny errors over 300 hours, matters... It's bias is (likely...) at odds with the nature of the hemisphere during this next two weeks, and these wild very large scale mass field continuity performance issues that are empirically observable in the GFS/GEFs is exposing what I personally have always known. The GFS does better and is competitive if not better than the other guidance now, in open wave velocity soaked pattern types. Take this information for what one will... I am not deviating from this thread's purpose just yet.

Well in any event… It’s too far out in time to make this kind of detailed comparison really. It’s basically just what I said earlier in the day. 13.14.15 the biggest sensitivity in all this is the handling off the Pacific; it’s just not in the Gfs‘s purview to actually do that… Apparently

Mm hm. Which may be a step towards Euro ? Possible

…it’s completely different across all the western US with the scale degree ridging … the timing of short waves coming out the Pacific even the details of the flow they’re all different this model has very very poor continuity …actually has zero continuity - it’s pretty much impossible to make out or identify the same features as the previous run relative to the time interval that’s the best way to describe this it just cannot see what’s going on coming off the Pacific Ocean after D6+ with much clarity. I would say that it’s worse than relative to even model error climate

One thing it’s gonna be less aggressive in winding up the low and taking it west of Chicago on this run I mean I may have a low out there but the morphology aloft and support for deep low transit west of the Great Lakes is definitely reduced on this 18 Z

GFS is arriving less progressive in the late mid and early extended range across the conus with all major features… proximately 500 nautical miles maybe or a little more. Defined difference also is the trough at 168 hours going through the south west is obscenely powerful. Sure how this will affect the evolution when all this gets east but it is what it is as it’s rolling out

For the record… I don’t mean to actually give the GFS shit ha ha. Just sayn. not speaking for everybody else Like I said it gave me pause because so much of the forecast system is doing what it’s doing. You know re the NAO …it’s almost like if you took an NAO appliqué to 30 more years of climate change you might get one that looks that way. It keeps occurring to me to be honest in kind a coveted little muse. I just read WPC is extended forecast discussion and they’re talking about the poor continuity and the bad predictability everywhere so seeing this massive continuity swinging around like this I really don’t take any of these runs very seriously including the entire ensemble system of the GFS or the EPS for that matter. I’m just trying to rely upon the numerical Teleconnectors and they still flag the 13 14 15 8–10 days might also be a clue too. Lol

I was just looking at that ha ha. It looks like it takes the entire hemisphere of atmosphere and just bodily shifts Southeast 1000 miles like everywhere unilaterally and dimensionally

I wish they’d bring back the model diagnostic division. ever strike anyone as interesting coincidence that they took that down around when they started clicking out new versions of the GFS like Pez candy lol

I’m kicking myself because I had a statement in that thread I started that my sense was that that would get damped out, 9.10. No ballz no glory. But I took it down because I thought it was just getting too confusing to logistically handle all that shit and also I wasn’t sure if it was just going to get rattled around south of Nova Scotia and affect the evolution of the latter events and so forth. The whole everything now is like an etch and sketch erasing lol

It has been a very coupled fall into the early cold season so far…

That’s exactly what I was thinking… and then zonal tends to precede ridging. We’d be heading for a 2015 Christmas as one possibility in extrapolating that extended GFS. Man I thought for sure this was just a one GFS sort of aberrant run… likely more meaningless against the weight of everything else. But then I looked at the weight of everything else. Jesus Christ. Some 70% of GEFs ballast agrees on cutting 13.14.15 as a deep low, -NAO or not. Out of nowhere, it’s planetary scaled continuity break - but it doesn’t fit the NAO hemisphere climatology I guess it could happen… I mean if we think about it the models can’t produce solutions that are physically impossible unless they’re cartoons. From what I’m seeing in the series though is that the Pacific is the problem. In fact for the last several days it has been meandering east and west with the planetary wave spacing …sometimes we get like yesterday and there’s more western North American presentation and the models immediately ignite massive storm system because of the incredible potential this pattern has downstream or eastern North America. This run en masse went so far the other direction it should strain believability. But it’s not like one or two members and the operational run here you’re talking about the entire GFS machinery. So much it’s sending a nonlinear wave function that’s encouraging the NAO to back load southwest towards the great lakes and we end up actually borderline turning this into an Indian Summer… Wah wah waah I mean the old mantra about continuity break 101 means you don’t really believe it and all that jazz is true but when the entire forecast system bullies that it all at once - whole scale - its enough to give one pause. I guess wait on the EPS and we’ll see if the euro and all that

So we’ve got the EPS absolutely gorgeous and the other extreme we’ve got the GFS, absolutely atrocious makin progress

The following statements for comic relief so don’t take it as trolling but I’m looking at the Gfs’ December 18 depiction of 585 Heights over Boston and I’m laughing at the prospect of any kind of snow haha. Jesus h Christ not to mention a “favorable pattern”. Run for your lives

The complete reversion back to what it was doing two days ago… It seems to be fighting the NAO exertion like it almost just loses it from time to time no times. I just think it’s not handling it well. None of the models are practically well probably

I wonder if we can get some mood stuff just like in the air on Monday. that is a really long fetch coming off big polar high. we’re gonna have a nice Northeast flow so it’ll probably be too warm obviously over east zones down toward the Cape and southeastern mass …but inland up the Worcester hills if we can get some kind of stuff in the air

The low here was 20. Currently it is 45 that’s a pretty impressive recovery for this time of year spanning just 2 1/2 hours

they don’t appear to be. The constant unrelenting back-and-forth replaying the same content does not appear adult and lucid about this material, not to any objective observer.

I don’t know… I think you folks need to focus on 13.14.15 We have to adult and except. We have to except that’s all that there really is out there - right now - that’s realistically providing the best odds. I dunno, maybe you don’t believe it. Or maybe you don’t understand it. But those are the best dates right there. All the odds on the table and scaling your best odds are 13.14.15 and everything else is just some kind of rocking back-and-forth and sniffing armpit antics … darting bloodshot eyes too and fro. Lol.

Yeeeah 17.18.19 is legit enough for early place holder awareness… Chuck has a thread started I believe. However if we get a significant event out of 13 1415 we’re probably going to cost some for anything that tries to come by just two days later part of the problem is that we have a progression or velocity bias in the flow unfortunately… Seems to be a recurring theme now spending many years frankly. Even in this strong blocking episode the models are trying to orchestrate a fast tendency. And it may not even be real - it’s hard to tell But wave spacing and atmospheric recovery/physics are real contention concerns. A significant event passing through the region between 14 and 15th tends to be too close for the 17th. it can happen… We did something like that 1996. But there’s a reason why we can count on one hand in 30 years how many times that happens

The thread I started is under the auspices of ‘risk assessment’ for 13.14.15 Not so much about the totality of the hemisphere that it is embedded within if that’s what you guys are talking about? I feel 13.14.15’s signal is strong enough that it deserves selection out of the daily din … I haven’t seen anything overnight to dissuade me from that sense, either. In fact if you look at the EPS and GEFs spread so you can see there is a tendency for a miller b now - very primitive attempt at coalescing. Yesterday the numerical PNA was showing an elevating index during that time frame while the NAO is relaxing. I haven’t seen the values from last nights computation just yet. But we are early in the signal so it may wander in and out or coherency for a little while - should be expected.

FYI gents and gals I started a more focused thread re 13.14.15 … I did pay homage to 9.10 I think 9.10. is one or the other, with regard to cold air… If the surge comes in from the east and it’s cold enough for that to be oes and grits and so forth the storm is probably going south.

Hell freezing over apparently … cuz -3 SD NAO under a -4 SD AO is somehow not enough

This is admittedly unusually early, but it is intended for risk assessing, which 10 days is not obscene for that sort of effort. Therein, it is time ... I feel it's worth it to start a more focused thread for the 13.14.15th of the December. The 9.10 (dates) event in the foreground is noted, and not intending to ignore that possibility. However, that one may not actually time within the span of the western ridging, which is why ( ironically ) the better, given to better large scale synoptic scaffolding, is the 13.14.15 prospect - and why this thread is focused there. But again ... hmm, this is not intended to ignore 9.10 altogether. Both have frankly been suggestive is statistical correlations for over a week of guidance monitoring ... There is possibility ( among a plethora of them, frankly) 9.10 could 'steal' the show by slowing down and/or stalling due to the NAO exerting hemisphere, which would introduce wave spacing and a tussle in future guidance - cross that bridge. In the meantime, this for the overall rudimentary canvas being in place and is/has been well covered, while now ( and perhaps most important) the the Pacific relay has been changing in favor of a better showing of ridging in the west... Below, I have annotated the 18z GFS for explanation purposes only - although it's essence/principle did not deviate too significantly from the 12z re the period in question (13.14.15) it is too early in the ball game for deterministic slide into home base. Perhaps as an homage to just how sensitive ( and volatile) the ambience is over eastern N/A, almost immediately upon the ridge above presenting, ...the operational models waste little time materializing these illustrations. For now, all three more dependable guidance sources flagging moderate to major cyclogen from the Del Mar to CC region 13.14.15, and I do not believe that is mere coincidence. It fits the footprint of the mass field modes/modalities: relaxing NAO https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.gefs.sprd2.png rising PNA https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.gefs.sprd2.png It's an interesting time to observe how the models resolve a complex Pacific relay that is dynamic, into a realm that is being forced to slow down by the might of what's proving to be a rather 'immovable object' in the NAO west limb block anomaly.

I snickered a little to self when no sooner do we have the ridge returning to the west in guidance, ...the GFS has to move to borderline wave spacing issues. can't f'n win