Typhoon Tip

I'm sure he'd be just glad to show you -

Saturday could sneakily become a low risk severe day ... I think I see what's been going on - and the Euro may have been superior in this regard. The flow's more progressive, and the high that is passing N of the region through tomorrow, is faster moving off S of the Maritime in the prior Euro runs than the GFS, which in delaying that departure ...yeah, it's mass fields are holding damming in longer... This 12z GFS run inched a little N with the warm front again - now between the Pike and Rt 2 at 18z. Two runs ago it was near NYC But here's the thing, the Euro's front was ironically slower, and the GFS is now faster with the trailing cold front. I don't think the lapse rates are good given this ( but haven't seen soundings...) but when you dawn with warm front escape, then have a cool boundary into western zones later in the day, that's a typical severe set up - in principle. There's also a right exit--> entrance relay as a 500 mb S/W perturbation moves through NNE in the afternoon.

Haha ... in other words, it's only cold if one's layin' around in sloth doin' nothin'

12z NAM looking more warm sectory in the grid: 54006967438 01098 152008 72181814 60000985338 01796 121809 74211814 That's a SSW wind at Logan, with 900 mb T to +18C ... 100mb is +21C at 18z, which is probably good for 26 C in the 2-meter. ALB and LGA are both +25C at that level, which is about 30 or 31 in the 2-meter. We may have some still lingering frontal droop E of the Berk's but that's definitely more Euro suggestive. Here's the NAM's synoptic representation at 18z

Doesn't Kevin live close to that Vernon ... Rockville area of CT ... where it is presently 62/57 priceless -

Ha...You gotta understand ... I grew up in the 1980s and 1990s modeling arrogance - which means ...I was left heartbroken more than not. That steady abuse of being gaslit by model solutions convincing us of a reality that would only prove fantasy, turned me into an neg nazi when it comes to situations where in one hand, it's what I want, and in the other, it's the looming reality that god is an asshole. There's not a lot of evidence defending the latter, so ...we pick the model solution that best aligns with that principle and we'll always score remarkably well. LOL

OH I'm on fence. I'm just trying to objectively lay out the differences. I did look at the 06z GFS and it trended N - that could be an early capitulation. we'll see. The NAM fwiw was Ner than it's previous 00z run...

I have seen maybe 3 times spanning decades worth of years ...whence the warm solutions won out over BD air mass lay-ins, and they were all in the last 10 years. I don't recall specific dates, but there was one where all the models even the day before, had moderately well defined BD boundary replete with the whole 2-meter large T correction punching SW clear to NYC by mid day. 3pm rolls around it was still 88 in Nashua NH. I was looking at the satellite, and there was no impression that boundary even existed anyway but there was a drape mid way up the Maine shore. I think with models being much better, I have noticed that the improvement kind of makes them over-sensitive too? - you know, 20 years ago, the models were never aggressive enough with these things. Something like that. I'm wondering if this one of those situations with the GFS just ending up too aggressive. See ...even a crushingly mundane weather synopsis, there's something to be excruciating about hahaha

Euro for 18z Saturday GFS ... We all know that the GFS is climatologically more sound than the Euro, particularly when considering the 24 to 36 hours prior to this 18z layout above. Today's slab of Canadian polar air getting nice and jammed into the region does not typically displace by merely weak warm front momentum/kinematics - in acknowledgement of both theory and practic, the Euro is out to lunch. on the flip side ... The Euro is seldom wrong this close. It's an interesting little test here. ..

GFS is wildly more pessimistic than the Euro for Saturday, mid day. Pick 'em I guess

well, okay - we saw that, but I wasn't sure if it was a sensor malfunction or a ledger thing.

This Euro run is more than SoP with warm/DPs on Saturday, just sayn' This is a diffused if not coherent warm frontal penetration to Brian latitudes of CNE.

may actually get the lows for the day just before midnight tonight for eastern zones

Looks like we're bootlegged on high T's for today. Lot of midnight caress goin' on

At this site/source their removing those discrepancies fwiw - https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KBOS&hours=72

No point looking that up it’s true… As one that hobbies heat waves I can tell you that’s true for this region… But it doesn’t appear to be causally linked, either - not that anyone’s suggesting so; just thought I’d add that. Statistically we don’t breech 100 often enough. That is the proxy in why less likely to do that twice in a single year. Based on the prior generations of climate, that is; it’s an important distinction to make. I don’t know in this present era if that is still as lesser likely. If one’s a gambler putting money down on having it occur more than once in a season, getting the first in the books in June is probably better odds than having the first happen in early August… obviously

It's 2-meters keep nicking off degrees every run though - it may be that a collapsed model solution is nearing. It's an odd looking surface synopsis for 18z in these Euro runs, too. That much damming just looming from the NE, yet no BD coming down, is atypical climo to say the least. I don't trust it, but it would be interesting to see that. GFS-like solutions are climate friendlier. On the flip side, the Euro is typically not that grossly inaccurate at < 4.5 days, whereas the GFS has made more gaffs in that range. hard to say or sell either way

Plus, the sensor's offline at the moment so ... not likely unrelated

Jun 25, 1:55 pm 84 70 62 88 ENE 14 10.00 SCT060 29.96 29.98 Jun 25, 1:54 pm 95 68 42 100 ENE 14 10.00 FEW037 BKN065 1015.10 29.96 29.98 95 78 Jun 25, 1:50 pm 93 68 44 98 ENE 14 10.00 SCT050 BKN070 29.96 29.98 Jun 25, 1:45 pm 93 68 44 98 E 14 10.00 SCT050 BKN070 29.96 29.98 Jun 25, 1:43 pm 93 68 44 98 E 15G21 10.00 SCT050 BKN070 29.96 29.98 Jun 25, 1:40 pm 86 68 55 89 E 10 10.00 BKN050 BKN070 29.96 29.98 Jun 25, 1:35 pm 84 68 58 87 E 10 10.00 BKN050 BKN070 29.95 29.97 Jun 25, 1:30 pm 82 68 62 85 E 10 10.00 BKN050 BKN070 29.96 29.98 Jun 25, 1:25 pm 79 66 65 ESE 9 10.00 BKN050 BKN070 29.96 29.98

yeah ha just typed a similar explanation

I bet that's low level folding There's NW wind moving into Boston and it's "tipping" the air mass over the really shallow E component and it may be mixing irregularly back down

huh... Logan can't be 95 with that wind wtf

I'm wondering if that's not the end tho. May be, but there's a lot of wind flags pointing SE ... I could see them flipping off and on over the afternoon ... heh, like 90 - 80 - 90 -80

93/71

just think ... exactly 6 mo from right now that'll be 50.7