Typhoon Tip

This isn't an analog for that event - beyond the fact that they both have low pressure producing winter storm conditions on the map... I mean, not that anyone is saying it is, here.... I'm just gathering cognizance for the morning. Not sure what planet I'm on just yet... But I do know that on Earth, that system was unique and different than this. just sayn' That storm brought 6.5" to Acton, ma in one hour during the 4 hours of the total event. We ended close to 15" There were to concentric bands ...probably separated by a gravity wave.. As each one passed over, vis went down to feet. 12/9/05 was 2nd time I ever saw 6+" in one hour, the first time was 12/23/97.

NAM FOUS 06z was colder, period. Logan with -0C isothermic all the way, with only one interval at +1 in the lowest level through the event. Also, it's 62" liq equiv, with ENE wind at sustained 34 kts at 980s mb above the surface. That sounds pretty darn close to a blizzard like arena - but obviously we know better with the frothing open sea delivering that "CCB" Which by the way, ENE at that wind sustained over several hours, and low < 990 going underneath is a CCB. Not sure if there's still contention on this idea ... but if there is, the NAM's 06z looks darn CCBish for what it's worth. Haven't seen any posts since 7 last night so I have no idea if all this hasn't already been demolished through the interpretation net - haha.... funny feeling it has

The NAM FOUS at 36 hrs looked like Baffin Island out at Logan. .73” under 0C in sustained 40 mph It’s been consistently looking like that. Snowier in the numerical profile than the synoptic charts illustrate.

Yeah. I wouldn’t care to aver a prediction for the whole month … but at least through the ides … blocking appears to be the course of lesser regret. I mean in practical sense … I suppose if the NAO takes 7 to 10 days to mature and fade … then the EPO loads into an elevating PNA after that … where are we going. We end up nearing the equinox.

The NAO fades as a new -EPO formulates. That temporal relay et al is pretty good indication that a blocking hemispheric mode is still in place.

Part of me would silently enjoy, if it absolutely crushed all the other guidance, and ended up perfectly right. Muah hahahaha

I lived there in the mid 1980s when the dinosaurs roamed... brutal. Although, there wasn't much of winter anywhere in 84-85 - that I know of... But we did have a couple standard Nor'easters that winter and the geek-out over the surf and power of the ocean is actually well worth the admission - you just have to suspend any interesting is snow. We did get one one storm that season though that had 4-6" to go with folding walls of wave power, but it was at the aft end of January after a brutal cold snap - I remember the arctic sea smoke at dawn one morning, with the sun rising behind, back-lighting translucent steam dogs as they roamed back and forth like they were on patrol. It's not a snow climate you appreciate out there. You leave all expectations behind when passing the Fishery factories from the mainland side of the Penn

consensus shifted S... what can I say - I mentioned this morning that the consensus could certainly move, and that's apparently happened ... immediately upon that next ensuing run. Heh. This obviously increases the odds ( from a pure modeling reliance - I was never completely sold on the consensus from overnight's runs when I posted those statements this morning..) the white over wet profile implication for that band between rt 2 and the Pike...If fact, pretty dramatically so. Still, we are dealing with gradated set up. You may observe S+ and be on the phone with a pall 10 miles S of you and he/she is reporting R+ with cat paw wad rain drops and one or two pingers. But that transition is now pretty clearly south HFD-PVD ...perhaps even Willamantic CT to PVD. I honestly lean toward the GFS as just having a better handle on this from the get go, and that we've wasted life energy in consternation all week - Either that, or it will be the most adamant bust in the history of model stubborn insistence. Thing is, I can see reasons ( still ) for the previous NAM/Euro and the GFS runs, and still do. But, all things being equal... one side of the debate is giving up.

Be leery of the models handling the secondary development rates -

There's nothing to actually track ? That's probably why ... that may change, should/if/when future guidance start to coalesce something within that generally framed time period of vulnerability - which is still there. The telecon numerics have a modestly upward correcting PNA ... but probably sufficient when than adding these pulsing blocking nodes over top at latitude. The NAO decays, as the EPO bursts ... and each time these relay across the mass field happen you run risk of restoring event ( index scaled events) - the PNA offers lowering resistance to actually carving out eastern heights for a f'um change.. The 12z GFS has two out there ...but too primitive to be considering targets.. It really looks like it's more respond to the background potential and probably the depiction is different in future runs, enough so to guess these are not "it" ... There is a 'little critter' early next week that the GFS has been getting more developed with. It's getting late in the year though... we are entering into a dynamics and fall-rates requirement, more and more with each passing week.

I can help solve part of that mystery - the closing/more proficiency therein ..wrt to the 850 and 700 ( in particular) sigma level vortexes ends that penetration. And you have to be careful with interpretation of the closing surface at that level. Standard met is 6 dm per isohypses, but ... you have to really use the wind flags to get a sense of the closing.. The 700 mb may have an open dishpan trough structure, but if the wind flags begin pointing from east within - the instant the flow backs lke that at that level, warm intrusion cuts off very quickly and the overrunning turns into a TROWAL and/or bent back structure(s)... usually within the snow growth region too - which is why right as these mid level centers are closing ...if they close prior to rising above growth temperatures... that's when you get that max snow falling rates

I know it's gonna be a decent event because I have f'n meetings all day and can't be involved - save stealing moments here or there like this, the 12z NAM FOUS ( my old lovable standard) really has about 8"(est) of 8:1 scheduled for Logan 48068989512 15215 000732 45009799 ..68" through a 0c, -3c, -1c column 54025988829 00413 940625 44029800 ..25" through a +2, -2, 0 60011957314 -1621 020125 38009693 so on... *This doesn't look above the 800 mb for those temp/sigma levels.

... at finite ( sub-consensus consideration) scales... we can also look for: marginality begin in-storm correct colder ( now-cast) should a Miller B be under assessed and turn out more intense. That's sort of a wild-card there, whenever we have a secondary

... and I don't see any compelling reason why a Euro/NAM blend is more useful than the cold guidance camp. I would recommend a whole membership consensus here. There are equal logics in support of either - none of which can be convincingly refuted at this time. Hence the inclusive tact. Having said all that .. yeah, it's possible that a flat-out colder solution "wins" or vice versa, but the reasons for that would require some sort of reanalysis/research. Course of lesser regret is the gray route

I see a consensus emerging a good portion of this sub-forum members won't like ( unfortunately ...) Snow/mix contention is along Rt 2 ... but for a distance S, will probably have to contend with some mixing negotiation that terminates to a skunk event for the Pike and points S - limited to no ZR for this affair. N of Rt 2 ... snow and mix fades to all snow, and determining stack is about temperature/ratios. All regions do not suffer more than a medium impact. Obviously where all rain...the impact is defined as just a moderate QPF event. This is what I would be drawing my weather maps. Whether that consensus may or may not meanders N or S from this interpretation ... who knows. But as is -

I'm hunching the NAM's convective parameterizations are feeding back more latent heat release into the immediate downstream exhaust ..which pumps the heights by small but crucial amounts - that then forces the whole wave to turn slightly left more proficiently. This is really quite precisely the same aspect you see over the west Atlantic/coastal regions, with coastal developments, where the NAM has a NW bias. It's just doing this along the longitude of the MV, instead of the from Tennessee to Cape May NJ. They all have TV convection along the warm front, but the NAMs rendition of that looks like training in July, where as the other look like normal IB type overrunning stuff. The 'type' and subsequent sequencing of CB convection matters

Despite whatever the ptype illustrations are showing, if that happens ...Scott's getting 1/16 of a mile Michael Jackson gloves with lightning and thunder

right - I thought it actually looked colder at first.. but wasn't paying attention to the low itself -really more about the thermal fields. Then it ends up east like that - so it kind of is an ambrosia of tedium to try and parse out what's really better or worse. I'm sick of this mo-f*r just happen already and get it over with. sonuvabitch

Not even close to the same set up actually ... I applaud the enthusiasm but Mar 1993 was a rare circumstance of the eastern Pacific being in such an overwhelming AA mode type amplitude, that the full latitude ridging went from eastern Alaska all the way to the subtropics, such that the entire local hemisphere, east of that axis wound up in one dominate jet with a powerful Rosby wave propagating through... Triple stream phased, atmospheric version of a "rogue wave" really. That's entirely different than what that chart above is indicating. just fwiw

It's easy to assume a Euro solution ... but that's conditioning from what I sense here. Least outcome relative to desire is an emotive response based on a troubled childhood. lol I don't see a lot of analytics that supports a Euro solution ( necessarily) over the GFS, other than an unrelenting season impassioned by torments and maddening results leading the way... Hence the conditioning. Can't say I blame anyone...

Comparing the oper. GFS vs the Euro ( this run...) arriving at 72 hours ...the Euro's confluence axis is several hundred miles NE of where the GFS places it. this is a clear disagreement on the degree of -NAO exertion spanning back SW ( ...transitively...) between these two guidance sources. the GEFs appears to side with the operational pretty well wrt to that, and the other parametric evolution -fwiw. not sure what the EPS says about its oper. flagship version, but i know that some recent run cycles demoed more disconnect in this cluster comparing the American suite - again... fwiw. This 'exertion' is hugely important to this. The GFS begins to feel that probably ... 36 hours into the cinema, when by imperceptible amts it begins correcting small amounts S-E along the arced trajectory as it rises in latitude ( deep layer total mechanical wave space governing the event). Such that by 72 hours, the Euro has a solution that's up our fannies too far for fun ( prison visit)... while the GFS is serviceable risk for winter enthusiasts...

Looks like wobble noise in a steeply gradated set up...

ICON would send people off their chairs if the model was worth a flake heh... I mean, that looks like 12 hours of S just about everywhere N of the south shore... with at least 8 of them in S+

Nam is almost 5 to 10 mb weaker with antecedent and in situ high pressure, N of Maine comparing the consensus.

actually... the 06z trended N by some comparing the 00z run. It's not a one time thing.. But the 06z GFS went colder... and with the Euro tending to collapse... so the consensus sign of the deltas (-dm/dt) are not in favor of the + dNAM/dt ( crude math) of these two recent NAM runs. It's a weird winter... every model or foresight there is has had equal chance to score a coup, but nothing has