Typhoon Tip

just Folks need to be made aware up front ... we are dealing with spring recovery in the hemisphere as these events try to manifest. don't expect any solution to be blue with room to spare... unless you're just in a lucky spot relative to that particular run's nuances. Otherwise everything is baseline marginal at this range now that we're into the 2nd week of March. Jesus, equinox sun in two weeks. It really does get really hard even prior to then. There's probably a reason why the snow climate has a bit of steep drop off at the ides.

I'm only out to 114 but that pv frag hanging over N. D. waiting to subsume the southern aspects looks tasty heh

admiring the 84 hr ...that may or may not bring goods into SNE but someone in the eastern PA/Jersey area may score in that

I also like that it's widening the gap between it, and the 'possibilities' next week by speeding things up a tad

Not sure it matters... im ean it matters in general that's not what i mean, but in that scenario it looks like that may even get overwhelmed.

It's okay ... you can self-promote. I saw your post haha no but I've been privately musing that we could actually miss both. I'm sure that thoughts crossed a few radars, huh nah.... (lol) It doesn't sit well with me as of this morning - none of it. The original signal was/is real, despite the lack of confidence in any of these mere phantasms we've so far seen manifested in the models. It's annoying... the potential is large, any one of these solutions can't be ignored, but then as time and new model runs go buy ... consummately proves they all should be. ... And yet all the while, the signal is still there and just as impressively coherent. It's hit media circuits! I like that CT guy a few posts ago, because of the concision. Saturday ... or Tuesday. Meanwhile, CNN has a headline on their website talking about the cold anomaly for the U.S. with possible snow in the M/A ... I mean wtf with the utter lack of model performance. Still no difference in confidence on anything. And fact of the matter is, if there was a bigger dawg in this, uuuusually those bigger affairs show up in the guidance and have staying power despite run to run permutation. Not seeing that. These are - maybe ...just saying maybe here - signs for me to really just remain skeptical, despite that overwhelming signal. They don't always produce. We haven't had a lot of signals this winter. The Dec one was pretty big, too. I would say this particular winter has seen an unusually higher number of signal to positive return failures. I guess if you put a pistol to my head ... there will be a lead system, but it will 'de magnify' toward a reality that is a minoring event, with a lolly pot moderate points around a narrower stripe and probably we see milk sun not too far away on the N-E side of a NW-SE movement. It may blow up as it's leaving out over the ocean. Then, later go with the blend of the EPS and GEPs for next week, which means the operational Euro is too far NW. Then maybe one last shot nearing the Equinox and then we're out

Perhaps we could be serviced with a minor to low end moderate impact on the 11th/12th ... that slabs in a crucial cold insert on the backside and the sky stays cloudy in the interim - like between the sisters of Dec 96

At this point ...I'd be willing to dump the first pass at this 10th thru ides period in lieu of that 2nd system... The 00z CFS, the 12z Euro and this 18z GFS show the immense, and probably. ... greater potential actually exists for that 14/15th attempt. Unfortunately for now...we're still spraying bombs By the way, the 18z was 6 to 8 dm shallower with the 500 mb core on the first way, which "might" be a sign of things to come. The overall issue is that this is pattern modeled is Nitro and the handling is very delicate or -

Interesting EPS in coming ... It tends to be rather non-dispersive relative to its flagship version. So ? do we end up with an epic battle between the GEFs and the EPS as to which wave space to focus upon - interesting

guys, ... the 00z CFS ? haha... I mean it's not really a deterministic guidance type. No. But it was all about the 2nd wave

heh..the 00z CFS model was something else with the 2nd wave ( 14th) ...

One aspect I'd watch ... ( related to the 'under L.I.' precarious set up ) Pay attention to the fact that the spread is around the W-NW arc of this mean... with some deeper members ... Firstly, what an impressive correction toward greater amplitude this was ... But, this means there are probably some members with more deep layer trough descending bottoming out along that thinking

Yeah...Brooklyn' already commented - or someone did back a ways... But that was a huge lurch into a predominant lead impulse as taking the show. There's been wave space/negative interference - I suspect all along now that I'm seeing it actually. Look back, it's probably more culprit in why we haven't seen a more coherent materialization of this overall threat period, sooner - ...speculative. But showing the immense potential of bringing a match to a gas fight ... the slightest gap introduced between the two wave spaces vying for proxy on this sub-index scaled tussle (just meaning the actual S/W interactions), and look what happens to the GEF mean? If this comes in just a little more amp ... and were to evolve UNDER Long Island ( which it is damn close to doing...), this becomes more than a medium impact event with very quick correction

Well, of course… I’m a bigger fan of that tact. However, so long as people are “considering“ the icon solution, I’m just informing that the sfc is a piece of shit at least comparatively. But like you said the 500 mb and I also agree, because I pointed that out myself is like phenomenal.

It is but ends up, just sent out a memo that it’s a really terrible solution so I decided to scrub the whole run

Yup… See…? All you need is one good model run and “it’s all good“ I like Gasper’s statement, the sports columnist when he said “winning is the best deodorant”

Anyway, we’re just ping-ponging conversation tidbits about the modeling cinema describing whether we like or didn’t like the movie and who’s performances we think we’re better than others, and how well the writing the cinematography and all that shit went down. Lol. In that metaphoric neon, I would say that the 500 mbar was brilliantly written, but the acting at the surface leaves something to be desired.

Oh yeah… I can just cheat on my phone Anyway, I don’t really have a lot of faith in the icon as I’m sure nobody else does, but it would be amusing if it of all models were the one that kind of detect the reality on potentiality here

I'm in a meeting at work and can't really look but did steal a glimpse at the ICON ( which I have not faith in as a modeling tool but fwiw -) and the 500mb for the first of the two is every bit a realization as can be, with a slowing deepening pseudo cutoff below 530 dm, in an utterly perfect climate location to pummel NYC-BOS. whether the sfc concurs and other synoptic aspects ...no idea

This seems to be a cogent and valid impression of where things stand at this time, yup. I would caution, however, that it's not too late for amplitude to return. There's a pattern change really that is multi-dimensional. It's not just the immediate correction of the -PNA as it quickly rises over 5 days to 0 or even modest positive ( as well as the west (geographic) fade of the -NAO block...etc etc), but a very fast equatorial SST correciton and SOI reversal, combined with a unfurling of the powerful MJO wave space that is in 8 ... these are more indirect, these latter indicators, and they really should correlate better to a western N/A ridge response - it's certainly not harming the prospects... Lest we forget ... how often aspects can look rather dreary when relaying from the extended into the middle range for a stint. It's all 5 to 6 days away.

...when it was the EPS that first looked so impressive with all this back on those runs between the 3rd and 4th, too ... ...the more I look at this, it seems like even though the Nina appears to be rapidly decaying as we type, there's still some momentum finger prints in the flow, and it's somehow physically interfering with the onset +d(PNA) ... It's in both the EPS and GEFs, a -1SD to 0 is a definitive mode adjustment, but it may just turn out too shallow in the end.. hmm

It appears lesser and lesser likely that a solo 'big dawg' is going to emerge over the 12th/13th, despite the continuation of the over-arcing theme of the hemispheric outline - the signaling for the period of time is still shining. So we'll see if this is just 'pattern change' teen-ager angst in the models... heh However, there's still a robust indication from all three, EPS/GEFS/GEPs, for cyclogenesis along the M/A during the 11-13th, it's just not likely from what this looks like at this time, ...to become more than medium impact. It's also not beyond the realm of possibility that a significant enough low is spawned and stem winds just too far S-E and we watch an 'eye' like feature with an impressive gyre on satellite from just too far away ... rotating yet farther beyond reach. It's always a cruel lesson when something like that happens, because the signal is realized ...in full. Anyway, it seems clear to me that there is destructive wave interference emerging out of this so far. It is not beyond the realm of possibility that a solution like the GGEM's, which really doesn't perform with the leading (12th/13th) inject into the arena so well, in lieu of a much more impressive and meaningful impact cyclogenesis with that following - closer to the 13-14th as Heisy et al have observed of the 00z suite. It's ensemble mean is tepid on that idea, however. Everyone's seen the GFS's last couple of cycles ...and it's opting for the series of systems - we mentioned at some point along the way ... these signals can end up multi - to atone for this period of time. It really has 3 events there. It's managed to figure a way to get to express its native progressivity bias in the midst of a slowing pattern... pretty amazing actually. While the Euro seems like it just caught up between the two in that destructive interference and ends up failing on both wave spaces. Meanwhile, the EPS/GEFs seem to agree more on the first wave space related cyclogenesis as dominant, but those solutions are too shallow to be objectively considered major events - even though there are some deep members. It's not exactly a raging storm vibe when the trend of those numbers has shrunk, as well as the spatial presentation of the mean. It's seems likely to me that the ensemble means are also picking up on some negative interference. All and all ..it's not been a very friendly to winter enthusiasts, last 24 hours of guidance, as they are doing whatever is imaginable to construct the least realization out of what is suggestively still quite possible during the 10th through the ides of the month. That's just the reality ...or my take on it as of this morning.

See ... another aspect that is quite abstract that I'm toying around with in mind ... this signaled period appears to be dumping ( suggesting it will ...) a ton of mechanical wave space right into the seam of the seasonal slow down and wave shrinkage. It sort of is like ally-oop timing with that... The other side of this thing ( that 4 or so day...) we don't really go back to the longer wave lengths/higher gradient construct nearly as much. We probably enter seeing the seasonal evacuation. Relax! it won't be an instant thing. There could certainly be other thing trackable - but we should see a definitive difference in the wave space behavior. Big March events in the past did that same thing. They were stranded big signaled deals that were sort of 'left to their own devices'

Yeah... again - I am reluctant to buy into any one GFS run more so than usual for the time range in question ( which at D6.5 isn't a whole helluva lot of buy in, anyway! ) But the reasons why, the GFS has a progressivity bias that grows out in time. It's noted by NCEP as something future versions will ( hopefully) address. Well, the pattern we are heading into is inherently slowing down with less of that flow bias - that sort of isolates the GFS as having certain challenges handling this particular pattern migration.

A hidden variance/sensitivity in probability assessments that NCEP has developed that few people know about is the anti-correlation of Tolland CT... That gap you see there ? That is why CPC is enhancing the risk for actually getting an event up here at all - because tolland is left out of the cool kids and excitement.