Typhoon Tip

I feel like it's day five before a fading coastal in the guidance... It's circa some February 20, during a particularly frustratingly low performing winter season, knowing in the back of one's mind, winter is past middle age and its best potential may have already ended - it's now or never. The last five cycles of the GEFs mean ( 24 hours), cumulative spanning through next 00z Friday, have ranged between just over 1" total QPF, to ~ .7" Interestingly, the greatest and least individual run totals were this most recent 00z (most) and the 06z immediately right after ( least ). The Euro run more than less pulled the plug on substantive/corrective QPF yesterday at 12z's cycle. I haven't bothered to look at the 18z run...but the 00z run appears to have continued along the 12z thinking. The situation is both complex, and weak... And, if that were not enough, 'weak' in the scenario from Mon thru ~ Thurs, does not mean heavy rain can not happen. There will be a tendency to pool theta-e within the trough's basin. If this opens up more and allows more insolation...say, you go back the other way with convective downpours that may be slow moving given to the weak flow aloft and the slow synoptic evolution combined. It can manifest rains that aren't really seen by any ens mean ( certainly ...) do to small scaled coverage and resolution issues.. etc. The idea of a general cool synoptic refitting pan-dimensional QPF event appears to be lowering odds, however. I've already opined my broader encompassing reasons why that is actually the preferred ( likely...) result, anyway, but ...the period of time probably is not a loss for those really buckin' for rains/drought interests. Because, there should still be a general better mid level to surface lapse rates hanging daily over said pooling of theta-e, and so there'd likely be daily instability to give. These global numerical guidance types are not going to necessarily seed the field with TCU, so that's unknowable - just recognize the metrics and roll the dice. That all said... a 00z operational GFS solution is not impossible either, ...again, I personally don't feel that's likely due to the overall trend to shed the typical late mid range amplitude as this week is nearing, working with cross guidance trends.

The continuity issues are the 101 red flag. The other flag -for me- is that the trough expands without loading. It looks like an artifact of the models … sort of spontaneously calving out the isohypses. They then respond to their own error in developing (previous solutions) a suspiciously anchored low - based on faux deepening aloft.

I'm not sure the low ultimately closes ...and/or if does so, it may do so too shallow to force a response in the surface features. The trough appears to be deepening to me without an entry - it just spontaneously opens up in the flow. That's the non-linear/secondary result from changes in WAR moving E, and the ridge in the west retrograding ... I've seen the models do that in the winter, and they mistook as activated L/Ws - this happened in the 2020-2021 winter, near the end of January I think it was. It was more like a deep sag in the heights between - But you're right - the lack of b-c fielding is playing into that, as there's not enough thermodynamic feed backs ..

Probably ... I don't believe the deep layer organization of that though. I suspect ( and am happy to be wrong if need be) the recent 24-hr trend toward weaker in the Euro probably ends in an open, non- closed depression in the field with nice convective blobs... That kind of morass can rain, even prodigiously ...don't need a helluva lot of triggers to dpour if theta-e's pooled and there's still relative summer sun cookin'. But the whole idea of a quasi E- jet anomaly over a 1006 mb low that doesn't move for 30 hrs strikes me as a secondary/non-linear wave manifestation. The 700 mb flow is vaguely closed with like 20 kts of circulation velocity. wooo. The models have been gunning for a trough along 80 W all summer... consummately having to back off moving inside of D5's. There has been a tendency to nadir the flow around that longitude ... but the models tend to see things magnified at this range. This time there may be more, then their detecting a little more trough through that lens. Heh, we'll see -

Mm the 24 trend in the operational Euro has been to shallow out that 120 to 168 hour ordeal next week in the east. It matters because folks are asking for organized hydro but .. The problem I've been having - and still do ... - with that whole ordeal next week is that the total manifold of the trough its self doesn't appear to be arriving in the flow - the one over this next 24-48 hours, does. There after, the models ( all doing this...) are just spontaneously ripping the field open with lower heights. Then, as a response to that artifact, the create the giant 1006 mb low with all this rain... I don't think so.

We're probably getting way ahead of ourselves ... but a somewhat less cyclone model evolution opens up that canvas to that potential - I like the low LCL/0-3km vision that becomes if that mess opens up more warm frontal wave in nature - which I think has some potential to evolve in that direction.

All set -thx

Fwiw - https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2022-08-10&id=47fce950-e67b-4271-9a07-92ba94c1934a&referrer=rss

HFD is 88 with a W wind. Boston is 70 with an E

mm.. one can envision whatever is needed to fulfill one's narrative - .. I mean, this engagement is not exactly held responsible to answering to a consortium of accreditation. lol But, the rip and read GGEM and GFS and their blend, is a straight up Nor'easter entry into an event that then takes a day and half to turn into left over murk. I don't even see much way to get the flow SE away from the coastal areas with that high N of the region pressing east, while that slowly busts open through those two days. It really more like just winds down to 74/68 with nimbus debris... I mean the whole thing still looks suspicious to me. They are way over deepening that thing..>They both seem to be responding to the non-linear wave function in manifesting that thing - not descriptively delivering wave mechanics into that region very well... Therefrom, then forgetting or ignoring the geophysical memo that there aren't enough baroclinic gradients, it's basically a December coastal storm 40F warmer... yeah okay -

hahaha... drought over! altho, technically we probably need two of those. but like you intimate, if it is going to go that far, it may actually synergistically go ballistic and turn into a real fun headlines like, "After months of drought nearing critical, New England floods catastrophically" who's with me! Actually, though ... my gut tells me this is the typical 'seen through the magnifier' range of the GFS, and that closed pig it seems to emerge rather than actually arrive there ( that's a potential hint -), will end up being just a general S conveyor up the EC. The weekends interlude into 70s/50 chamber will give way to a subtropical sky and that big QPF spreads out over three or four days/less. That is a very late March look though, to have that kind of sultan low plunk in there -

Not really relevant for you guys up there but ... the last BD I recall was perhaps June - this one was "cloaked" in the other boundary, making it less obvious, but it was very real. Spooky drowned sailor's shrouds ghosted across the sky under moonlight at 11pm last night as the smell of salt marshes penetrated the streets some 30 miles inland. It was beautiful, actually... But .. it appears it's terminating this hour as we speak. There is a clear delineation on higher res vis loop that suggests the interior cloud level wind field is turning back W, while this roughly E of Worcester Hills struggle to pretend it doesn't have to give up ... heh. I have more direct, non-orb sun shining in splashes now and we've jumped back to 76 here in town. Far cry from the 97 yesterday at this hour. But, as I was pointing out this morning and is still the case... this air mass on this side of the main/real synoptic front is still warmer than normal. We are getting a disproportionately cool enhancing by virtue of the low level NE jet that materialized over the last 18 hours of this BD fist. But hydrostatic heights being 575 still and even 570 mb up where you are, in this air mass...is NOT a CAA environment. So clouds and other nuances appear to be ganging up - so to speak - in making it appeal cooler than it really "should be" - I'm noticing now LGA on the NAM grid is back to 26 C tomorrow, and 25 at ALB... That's upper 80s in the 2-m - really where today still could have been down this way if this BD didn't steal time. Interesting... We all will, far in a way, get into a more convincing corrective air mass this weekend though. Probably upper 70s here to low 60s in the summits up there, with very low DPs... There after, I'm still thinking that the trough retros and we start considering a S EC parallel Bahama tap. Something like this as we write the last couple chapters of summer.

Breaking backs aside ... I've often thought of August and February as the real beginning of transition - so I agree with Ray in principle on those two months. It's like the zygote of the ensuing season's life, but still too small to notice. Usually have to get several weeks and a missed cycle before it dawns on the wife, 'gee, uh...wait a sec. oops.' But us nerds notice everything ... like, exiting solar max this. And 'shot across the bow' air mass that... The truth of the matter is, it's not a hard seam in time. It's like crossing the event horizon of the black hole: you can never go back, but you don't notice much of anything unusual or different for the experience going across. Pick one's metaphor. But we do, as overtly focused folk, notice the creep. Some years it may be more obvious than others. But it always strikes me as interesting how, the difference between May 10 and August 10 - excluding BD butt-bang years - is often much less noticeable than the difference between August 10 and November 10 ( sometimes even as near as September 10). Same is true for February going the other way... In either case, those months are an blurred boundary whence the corrections moving forward switch. Think of it this way, in 45 days, we enter a month that has snowed some 10 event-years in the last 20 One cannot really know that from July 1 to August 15.

Use logic though ... It's actually probably more exposing who's butt is sore when attempting to end -around climate and logic this early in the year by prematurely appeasing one's self with incongruous claims LOL J/k dude

It'll correct downward over the next week ..obviously - but... that's pretty impressive as a 10 day aggregate mean in August. It's actually rather under the radar extraordinary - I guess that goes without saying as it was exceeding a record not touched in 111 years so yeah ..It was extra ordinary. Anyway, it is much easier to put up a +8.6 day, as well as a week long, in January than it is in mid summer. In terms of that relativity, a +8.2 in August is a > SD for 10 days than it likely is in the middle of the winter. Earth likes to correct the temp up in the winter, but there are physical limitations at the warm end of the spectrum.

There's some interesting features on the high res vis loop... https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-New_England-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined Look up toward NS and trace that low level pattern of movement - it gives the allusion if not proof, this NE flow is back built way the f out there. It's not just some local to eastern New England circulation eddy. The other aspect, ...it's very narrow. It's like a low level NE sting jet. And it is very low in the atmosphere, because there are layers that probably around the 800 mb level kiting/pealing back NE over top. Then, if we look toward SW NH and NW Mass, the CU field is moving SE and it is mostly sunny. This low level NE "jet" is very narrow and very low tube of air that is really it's own environment - a wonderful illustration in totality of how we here suffer this kind of uniqueness that is really hard to find anywhere else on the planet.

We need to invent an emoji that is both Like and Laugh... But, this more aligns with my own 'subjective' take on it. I like a coherent move in the isohypsotic layout toward a more autumn vibe, where it's not going to return because the hemispheric foundation isn't there. That's usually the the first two week of September -so in the ball park. This is also tending to coincide with the night time/radiative cooling controlling/pulling the daily diurnal means downward - probably shown better graphically. I mean, it's not uncommon to 42 a tanked September 10 low and still make 76 the following afternoon.. but that 76 is obviously a very different 76 than one experiences prior to the breaking. ... But even these are vague as the hemisphere can sort phase above and below the autumn look over a 2 or 3 week period during stubborn years.

Maybe it would help if we adulted this debate by way of one of two aspects: A ... define a set of synoptic metrics once and for all, that when matched with verification, are agreed upon ... Such that if we broach those metrics it's game over - tough shit. Even if some fluke after the fact 91/94/97/95/93 heat wave takes place, ...it has to go in the books as a post broken back odyssey/anomaly, not part of core summer or whatever. B ... Stop using that expression, for ever!

Fair enough ...again, the subjectivity of the discussion notwithstanding ... but I would not personally use that bold concept in the same context as 'breaking summer's back' - that's a little incongruous. I think people "want" summer's back broken LOL ..and we dance and frolic around the semantic syncopation, a groove that resolves the tenor by saying so, without actually meaning that.

Let's not rush things... I realize summer aspects are not very well aligned with the majority/populace druthers ( lol ) of this forum ...But, it may be more apt to say, the recent heat wave's back is broken. Summer? Not on August 10. Brief op ed on the pattern/summer going forward ... I suspect the trough aspect that is about to incur along 90W will, like so many others both this summer, and since the GFS upgrades began parading out new versions like Pez candies in 2014 ... ( yeah, dubious beta testing), have proven exaggerated. What I suspect is more likely, a weakness in the subtropical ridge. It will have some minoring circuitous, meso-beta scaled S/Ws embedded, but not to the depth that many of those recent runs were selling. This may be true for the Euro as well, although these tech sources converge on that similar bias through different reasons. The Euro is already showing the relaxed trough at still 576+ to even 582 dm heights demarcating - that's pretty clearly a summer characteristic. That's probably all this is - a summer trough/relaxation mode. After? I don't know if we return to the same look aloft and suffer some dimming variant of heat potential... I have seen/experienced big heat as late as Sept 10. Anyway, I spoke a bit at length yesterday ... the notion of an EC paralleling deep layer flow - unknown strength but likely on the weaker side ... - probably sets up some sort of Bahama Blue type sky and air, after the initial trough thrust bobs down to about NYC, attenuating as it does... I mean it's not a huge leap to correct that way - the models are already leaning. It is largely a subjective notion, 'summer back break' ... but for me, that happens when the total synoptic scaffolding takes on the the first autumn vibe, with radiative cooling nights taking over the diurnal variation. Something more like that... Having said all that... I do suspect that we enter a tendency for +PNAP in autumn, its self, and faux the early winter by October/November again.

The other aspect that may be interesting ... I got to thinking, I distinctly recall recent buoy/station obs, like 44005 bobbing around the lower GOM, or 44098 ENE of Cape Ann, they were registering SSTs at an astounding mid 70s - I commented on this mid way through the heat wave, how - at least for me - I had never seen that kind of warmth around that geography. Yet ...this air mass arrived from that direction, late last evening. Surely, a mid 70s marine boundary layer should be warmer than a BR 65 F chalk strata air mass. So...I checked those buoys this morning and they have cooled markedly. In fact, 44098 matches the air quality almost precisely... I mean, did this air cause those SSTS to flash colder 44098 went from 73 to 65 at some point when I was not looking over the past 48 hours ...I can't imagine air can do that to the thermal storage capacity of the surface waters, that fast.. It almost seems that a thrust of cold water either upwelled or perhaps wind stressed the surface at convenient timing with this BD. I'm looking also at the general non-hydrostatic layout of both the 700 and 500 mb levels, and there really was only a vaguely discernible confluence going by N of Maine prior to setting this mass displacement off...so, it's weirdly over-achieving - if that makes any sense. I feel sometimes like this corridor E of the Berks/Whites, from about mid Jersey to NS ...is like an atmospheric Bay Of Fundy.

This area essentially E of the Berks-Whites axis, and NE of NJ, is getting a very exaggerated relief by virtue of this BD air mass... One that WPC does not analyze ..pretty much ever, which annoys me. They have the standard synopsis stationary boundary with vaguely closable single contour waves along it, aligning mid PA to the off shore S of Boston, but there is clearly and definitely an air mass type discontinuity in that nose of NE jet that is present this morning. Otherwise, I am looking at that NAM grid and it is clear that the synoptic realm we are still within, even on the N side of said stationary boundary...is still plenty warm. The hydrostatic heights are still in the mid 570s dm range over LGA, and though sagging some...over 570 above Logan - despite the mid 60s F air temperatures there. The orb of the sun may be dimly visible as morning high def vis satellite loop reveals a very shallow lifting over the nose of that NE flow down over SW zones... where cloud elements then peal rapidly back NE over the top. That's actually an unusual look to have that aggressive/low SW flow over the top of a 180 deg opposing surface jet/disconnected air mass. Usually with BDs...that near BL flow has turned NW ...so this is a very shallow air mass. Probably no taller than 2500. For these reasons..probably this doesn't pack in for the whole day - it's just too thin and Aug 10 is still plenty hot sun.

PSM NH 21:56 71.4 65.7 67.5 82 16.1 24.2 NE 29.77 29.88 29.88 Overcast 7.00 4500 0.00 OK 21:32 71.6 66.2 68.0 83 15.0 ENE 29.76 29.88 29.87 Light Rain 7.00 4500 OK 20:56 75.4 67.3 69.8 76 11.5 25.3 NE 29.74 29.85 29.85 Overcast 10.00 9000 OK 19:56 88.5 66.9 73.3 49 6.9 W 29.71 29.83 29.82 Mostly Cloudy 10.00 8000

man... all the way back to 90/75 since that gusty shower a while ago...

huh... I guess that storm took FIT off line?