Typhoon Tip

the 06z GFS operational takes a modest reflection of this Invest above, and moves it along that similar trajectory to an eventual pass right over Cape Cod. It will be passing over the G-string heat content during that journey - if it stays... - but I'm not sure of the other metrics. Whatever they're sayin'

Oh I am not laughing at you I’m laughing with you. Heh

Up 22 since 7:30. not bad

L O L he’s ready for warmer weather on October 21 after three nights of fake cold, what’s he gonna do when it’s not fake for three months if lead air

It’s amazing how sloped the sun is already. So vividly I can recall the orb tipping warmly into the morning sky … seems so recent. Now at that same time the sun just crawls along the SE horizon.

Obviously there is no such thing as ‘fake’ warmth or cold - a given temperature is what it is. The turn of phrase - if it must be pointed out … - is just a header really, that labels the reason for a given temp as being manufactured circumstantially and transiently disconnected from the surrounding larger synoptic signal. There should be no cause for argument in acceptance of that reality. If we are sensy about choice of label for it … I guess pick something else. But the chill this morning is still gossamer either way.

Yeah ORH is 41 so it’s a lower elevation/decoupling fake cold. Should be 62 at 3 pm Maybe 70 tomorrow

I’m not sure what it is… didn’t mention climate change in that. Granted it’s the most available implication but I don’t know You know … that Super Nino that took place … I wanna say 7 clicks back, turned out to be not much more than a Super Neato. It did not impose nearly as many impacts along traditional climate routes as past significant warm events have. so I don’t know that’s all maybe it’s an isolated thing

Very much agreed. The veneer of the ocean surface/air is only a (warning: big words incoming…) quasi-couple EOS (equation of stasis) That means that what the atmosphere is doing at the sea surface (in regards to wind distribution) tends to reflect in the SST distribution - but that can be transient at intra seasonal scales and does necessarily reflect PDO/AMO — let’s get complicated though… If some grad student with a brilliant insight comes along and proves that the subsurface means less to the actual pattern … like undeniably and quite conclusively… then we can reevaluate The other thing - more of a separate matter The warm pool up there in the north and north east pacific wobbling around since roughly 7 to 10 or so years ago (Will’s gonna love this) Is being attributed to climate change. Not personally commenting to its veracity one way or the other… But the papers out there I actually gave a link either I don’t know one of these threads. But the point is if that’s true then the PDO just suddenly means even less to the pattern - it actually even smacks is passing through a climate threshold the ramifications of which would remain to be seen digress

We laugh but … heh that decoupling thing has been an increasing observation occurrence spanning a decade. I realize you’re not making a statement either way … but it’s not just endemic to the last NIÑA for the general read/straw man.

Lol … not to be a douche but I don’t believe many really think about it that deeply. Heh. Someone once intelligently posited or even merely sounded cogent when stating cold water sucks there … —> forever triggered a canvas of fear. I guess it depends on the audience. I mean there are enough years sampled to force the notion of non-partiality (not a doom signal at all…) that frankly I and I suspect a growing number of prognosticators merely add it to the stew…

Man too bad that inverted mess punches up the coast. I guess if it bides time until Monday it’s less annoying but the Euro/GFS screw Sunday out of what would otherwise be a gem. Saturday looks good. Maybe the GGEM’s better recent trend with that will pull the win coup attempt. Nah..

Haha. Knew people would react to that.

Zactly. Yup

What part of this autumn having a ‘traditional feel’ is unclear or requires a Emoji some of you are dinks. You don’t “like” something … you gotta cast that shade at the content. … well reality called. Tough shit! you don’t get a perpetuity satisfaction sometimes. Lol

I just hope the Patriots don’t return to older tradition… Lol. And by that I mean like prior to 2000

Impression it has conjured in me is one that harkens back. Reminiscent and restoring faith in a normal seasonal progression. And it’s worth saying it that way. It really is … because from Sandy’s to sans normal foliage season, to early snows, I almost can’t recall a Fall that didn’t have a spectrum oddities to contend with. Autumn is naturally going to offer a return to variability … but since ~ 2000 this season has gotten into the habit of exceeding that Rockwellian parody. This year just sensibly touches me like older tradition. It seems observational data tends to support much of this portrait, too. HFD and ORH are -.6 and +.2 respectively. Which for all intents and purposes… ? normal. Meanwhile, the colors flashed across the landscape perhaps just a week later than 1980 … but of particular notice to me is that species stayed within their color wheel. I got used to saying “…that tree never turns yellow or that one never turned brown.” And their timing has closer to overlapped. Two mornings here, just now, back to back with frost more convincingly occurring at just about the precise climate signal. I mean I’m craving warm cider and authentic donuts at this point.

Nice to get the modeling tech an hour earlier soon...

Seems like the Gfs is going to be the new D8 or 9 coastal bomb model

Yeah the models just don’t wanna relent on that idea with that thing up the coast. And it’s not even clear what that is… Mean it starts out as a weakness in the middle levels and then you get this disproportionate trough curvature at the surface-could take on tropical characteristics as we get closer in the modeling time frame. It is getting kind of close in time so maybe it’s just a big inverted trough/warm frontal hybrid. Either way it’s acting like an inverted block? That’s when the high can’t settle south of the latitude flow so you end up with an East wind blowing into the ridge and we get screwed for a nice warm weather which I would rather have frankly. I don’t want it to be like 48 to 56 with rain mist and fog … I’d rather have it be 72 to 76 which is what that ridge would otherwise couch in the absence of that piece of shit lol Good thing I’m not God because it would be 90° until November 15 and then it would be 20° under 10 feet of snow until March 15

Hm. The thing with the MJO … it’s a constructive feedback or destructive feedback mechanism - it doesn’t actually drive patterns. I’m not exactly sure what Ventrice was talking about/his context there I wasn’t in the room. But just adding. …if the baseline circulation mode forces ridging there … then a given MJO materializes over the left side of the RMM monitoring, it certainly would appear to be a huge motivator. I strongly suspect, in the early days of connection with the MJO index, people leaped on using it but didn’t fully understand that it was more of a feedback/harmonic as opposed to an actual pattern drive. In the weekly discussion/publication … I have noticed an adaptation to that conceptualization as more than years ago, they now describe constructive/ destructive interference against the ENSO this or the circulation mode that and on and so on

It harkens back to the more primitive climate model/projections from the early 1990s… They more than less predicted that global warming would cause propensity for ridging over the northeast Pacific. It was kind of an offset idea for cooling over North America as a local hemisphere scale feedback/circumstance for being downstream of a warming ocean. I think a lot of those earlier more primitive model solutions were never revisited, perhaps because the technology advanced and outpaced the chance to do so. I mean there’s like a new climate model projection every month with some paperwork related to it employing some recently discovered feedback mechanisms and all these are based on observations since those earlier efforts so they are really kind of outmoded. Nonetheless, 2015 was a strange year, and there have been other examples where there’s been an increase in the tendency for negative EPO bursts; observationally it harkens back to those earlier works

I knew I predated you up there by a stretch but I was just asking in case you knew the setting. You know, I just think the weather was more interesting in the 1990s. We had that greatest hurricane season ever recorded, after the greatest heatwave ever recorded in the midwest... that all led the highest seasonal snow total ever recorded, all inside of Pinatubo winters in general... all within 5 years really... Then, we had that weirdly fetish horny 1996-1997 year with the December freaks followed by that 33" April b-j... I don't know. The aughts were very good for canes and winters too. But, that 90s all happened over a span of 5 years... not spread out over the last 20.

I've actually thought about converting that into a short story... I lost the original I wrote back in like 2004 or 2005 when Eastern was in it's earlier hay-days... Then I rewrote it from memory a couple of times since ... These latter reprisals seemed to get the rabble roused enough, despite my personal feeling that the first version back whence was the better of all. See... when you write from the heart, it's so much better than calculating turn of phrases for scientific dictum. Although - I used to get praises back in the day when people seemed to really like reading 10 page dissertations hahaha... Then, scientists discovered "tl;dr" and well... No but sometimes truth is better than fiction and that accounting of that scene from the 10th floor of Fox Tower, peering out across the expanse of the Merrimack River to the other side of the valley as the sky fell to earth in shock snow transition to near white out in < 30 seconds flat, immediately on the heels of some kind of massive positive CG the pulses of which vibrated the structure to it's girders... while wind swayed the building ... was literally ( not figurative) truth. And, basically... sensory overload. No Ray, the Christine diatribe came out at a separate occasion but it was around the same time in life that I indeed met satan yeah.... thanks for bringing that up.

Need a 1967 special to meander around the GOM throwin' deform dendrite bands for 4" stints spanning 100 hours... That'll 'bout get 'im back to normal