Typhoon Tip

“Noooo winter for you … ONE YEAR!”

Mmm .. wondering when this either a … breaks toward a more seasonal warm anomaly -or- b … really commits to the more ominously near/at historic anomaly it seems tempted to go toward. This two weeks reminds me somewhat of late Oct thru the first 10 days of Nov 2020 … An early meridian flow/cold signal sloshed the other way. The cold even produced yet another in the growing numbers of Oct snow events nearing Halloween. Week later …historic warmth nearing or exceeding of 80 as late as the 10th … really surpassing the Indian Summer mystique It was actually an extraordinary “behaviorally significant series” … unsung do to the Pandemic’s capturing attention. Do people recall the 2,500 pg thread ? - don’t remind us … yuck. So anyway we’re not gonna get a snow event out of the trough side of it this time but we are doing in principle similar kind of large scale sloshing. Also… wondering if that Euro’s meandering thing astride the EC out there might take on some phase transition ?

Could actually end up exceptionally warm next weekend if that surface +PP escaping E can reorient itself for more continental conveyor. models are doing what they typically do in the spring with an early Ridge signal… They send the sfc high east north east of Boston such that we spend the entire ridge with a chilly stolen East flow

Terminating planetary waves at high latitude/altitude (basically the end game of WAA..) triggers PV perturbations. But the two other factors play an important role there, too: the wave number at mid latitudes is one - A lower number implies more zonal bias limiting merdional transport. The other being chemistry in the trapped PV as summer wanes to autumn. The latter is robustly enough correlated to UV/solar as those WL break up ozone. Ozone is thermally conductive and when WAA plumes interact arriving via wave advection slowing the wind velocities …triggers the warm burst/intrusion - the two are positive feed back and the PV fractures. That’s as it relates to SSW. The reason I’m mentioning this stuff is because there are recent studies/mathematical models showing that as the polar field is warming faster than the rest of the planet there’s a tendency for the Vortx to break down with more meridional structures emerging so it’s kind of hard to parse out what is caused by just fluid mechanics versus how much is that really EP originating out of the subtropics. Those seem to be disparate mechanism? Yeah I guess either way the culprit in the discussion is the A the G and the W regardless.

70 here

I'll betcha 50 bucks I'll be more right than wrong, ...even after "subjective review" tries to refute what is obvious, too - Climate change is affecting winter. ..badly. Winter season forecasters are not adapting to that, or enough, either way. The way it is affecting is it is causing surplus of gradient, regardless of ENSO. Regardless of polar index modes. In fact, the later appears to only add to it when those negative modes happen to be offloading over on our side of the N. hemisphere. Heights from Old Mexico to southern GA ... tend to stay 3-5 dm higher than the previous 300 years of climate inference. These are reproducing observations spanning 10 years at this point - other than outlier like 2015 Feb...which spikes along curves is also part of the business. Sometimes persistence is a forecaster's friend. Knowing when 'she wants to break up with you' ? That's another story - eventually, they all break your heart. But that's the problem... you're not getting pattern persistence in winters. We've been seeing disruptions in winter pattern footprints - particularly in one regard: very hard to maintain a pattern bias. Mass field changes occurring in short duration time spans. That stochastic aspect at large scales is causing a storm in January ( yay!) to be a week near 70 if not historic 80 in Februaries. Snow in October... with 78 F high temperatures on May 15 with hydrostatic heights of 538 dam! ( that's a weirdly odd, that synoptic combination of metrics). The fact that our mix event flop vector appears to now be wet, not white... Combinations of a varied spectrum of observational oddities, from sensible backyard, to more pan-dimensional/super-synoptic, can't be satisfied using the inferences that are still employed from the previous more stable climate - before the hockey stick got underway. But I don't put out seasonal forecasts... I wouldn't dare in a public venue like the Internet weather-based social forum, particularly now, when the winters are being affected by a warming world - ooh sign me up for that vitriol! The convention of "stellar attention to objective reasoning and acceptance" that goes on here isn't really very conducive. Plus, none of this means we can't have a better year, or even redux a 2015 something... It's a matter of said objectivity merely knowing the odds of doing that any given year ... is going down We'll either be below normal snow and above normal temperatures. Or ... we'll bootleg our way to normal snow from a lucky coastal and windex events, with a smattering of front enders that switch to 33 rain instead of icing... with temperatures still finding a way to be above normal if by decimals.

As far as it's 'believability' ... there is a reasonable coherent -EPO puse, albeit lower resonance, up there NW Canada toward the end of this next week. -EPO entries do send a reasonably good fit to lower heights west of Chicago, first, anyway. But the "lower" pulsed -EPO at this time of year... mm. It may be too weak to instruct an eventual cold load across N/A on whole as is in the trends ... So I'm imagining we may end up triggering a pattern reversal that sort of stalls, instead. Leaving us in some sort of more or less Nov 2020 look.

The modeled larger synoptic evolution, as we head into week 2, is beginning to remind me of a similar evolution that took place between about October 26 through November 11, 2020. Not an exact analog, but bears a lot of similarity nonetheless. I'd even caution, the signal may merely be fought by biases in either the Euro or American sources, in the present model trends - both of which would tend to damp the scale/dimensions of eastern N/A mid latitude ridging at a D8 - 13 range as their normal tendencies. Long words for, 'this could smooth toward a warmer episode.' It's a specter that's been in that time range now for like 4 or 5 days ...really since it first came over the outer temporal horizon of the guidance, and as we get closer...if it started to look more like this ... .... I would not be surprised.

I wonder if this will be the first winter in history, in which 70 F was reported at least once during all three months of Dec, Jan, and Feb. ...then of course we can't touch 40 in March... but wouldn't that be hoot.

Let’s set some late heat records after an (at least) elevation snow next week. Ha

GFS went quite warm looking in the extended

Jesus Christ what the hell does somebody have to say in that particular subforum to get banned. Was it from Darth Sith’s heart.

Yeah what I was talking about with the last two solar cycles being in a 23 year nadir is nicely demonstrated there.

Sky’s day glow. Sun orb dim viz. Dead calm. 63. If the sun actually comes more fully out it’s gonna be actually spectacular with the colors out there

In an unrelated observation I don’t think I’ve ever seen my lawn look this beautifully green and pure in essence of that particular color tone in the 10 years I’ve been associated to this property – and that’s amazing considering two months ago in the height if all the drought futility

Yeah this part of interior northeastern mass rarely experiences meaningful wind in a southerly gale scenario - or results least. Nashoba “Valley“ so much of it glides right over the top the friction inversion. Despite being in the low 60s ( one might think at this time of year that would be warm enough to mix ) all night there wasn’t one audible gust over the rooftops.

Fwiw -

Right and so if we hang up the AO in a negative state this winter that would be a breakdown in that correlation. But none of theses are 1::1. duh.

Interesting… And just adding to the conjecture – in keeping with the threads title. But it’s funny how we’re in an era ( I mean like over a decade in length ) where these longer-termed, broader scaled teleconnectors seem to correlate less obviously, at times failing coherence… It’s been occurring greater frequency than their mutual correlation coefficients What I mean by that is… ex: the AOs meander away from QBO correlation. Or these extended span of times during winters whence the apparent circulation mode of the westerlies decoupled from the ENSO state. Etc. Pretty sure there is a multi decadal AO that follows the solar cycle – seldom do I hear it discussed in here but the correlation is out there … I’ve seen it graphed and written. It’s positive, such that when the solar is down the AOs tend negative and vice versa. We’ve definitely been down in a solar extending along … I think it’s a 23 year oscillation… The 11 year mins were embedded in that 2ndary differential … such that they were more min than normal min () if that makes any sense. Yet since 2000 the sign of the northern annular mode has averaged positive? that might be a long winded bad example lol But it also seems a lot of negative AOs failed to deliver cold, as an after thought so I guess the overarching theme to this whole thing is that it’s adding headaches to using linear correlations to project what the indexes may do based on historical inferences and analogs, because the emerging hard-to-ignore unstable domain borrows from confidence

Word

Do you think that might’ve been a little bit of terrain enhanced? The wind trajectories were sort of SSE pretty much thru the 700 mbar. Maybe not appreciably strong but that was a pretty high pwat air mass being humped over the terrain. Ha Kind of gross but where it humps it dumps

So it looks like if anything the models were too wet? I didn’t pay too close attention to this because it didn’t look that extraordinary to me. I mean the deep pinwheel over the great lakes/associated trough is for the time being sort of stationary while trying to send this lead side frontal construct through us… I mean the dynamics and mechanics were what they were but it seem like you weren’t really differentiating the field enough for it to be an extreme event– that’s just sort of a canvas for this. Admittedly with shame… I looked at the NAM FOUS once we were inside of 60 hours at ALB/LGA/BOS. As a quick and dirty technique I’ll just average the triangulum between those points off the gridded QPF. I don’t recall seeing values very much north of 2“. I mean obviously that is a crude method in today’s era of reasonably accurate meso analysis at less than 40 hours that can expose embedded heavier activity etc whatever …basically this was a slow moving warm conveyor transporting saturable air under attenuating mid-level mechanics… That synoptic appeal combine with those grid numbers was good enough for me

Might be an understatement, too. But we’ll hold pending how that evolves. The signal’s emerging boldly though. I’m sure you’re aware… Some of these recent euro runs, ensembles and operational, began disrupting the resonance between roughly the date line of central pacific through the longitude ~ Chicago … despite the MJO actually moving into phase 6 and trying to get into 7 from those same sources. It’s been a bad year for the MJO - man just cannot seem to couple with the atmosphere. They also began doing that while the GEFs members have been maintaining a pretty strong positive PNA. So there was a conflict there beginning to emerge – all this is really just the last three or four days of guidance tenor. But the signal is more coherent through all sources this morning including the GEFs …beginning to slowly seesaw backward. You know … it’s almost like the current look with this trough in the east… coming to a nadir sometime between Monday and Thursday of next week ( wouldn’t be ridiculous by the way if we get a chilly rain coastal with elevation blue out of that - I hinted that in a one sentence drive by post the other day…) is being handled like ‘the winter expression before the Indian Summer’ typology. I mean snow’s a human convention in all that. Philosophically it’s whenever the pattern seesaws from early chill back to summary regime - right? Perhaps it’s getting rather late in the climate change slow moving apocalypse for the early chill signals to actually have snow in them lol Seriously tho I take longer range warm signals for some 10 … 20% more weight as a standard approach. Whether it is because of climate change or not … the past 15 years those tend to over perform the majority at global scales. But I’m also on the fence a little bit because there is that other aspect that long lead model images of that nature also tend to be over amplified so you’ve also got conflicting concepts going on there interesting.

Curious what their respective reason were. I had figured for a season being some kind of lower than the gushy mainstream media’s reported counts ( which is technically different than ACE ) … tho I didn’t care to engage in any kind of discourse in the matter last spring tl;dr attitudes in modernity ‘bloated with virtuosity for real and profound engagement’ … definitely fosters motivation for poignant composition whether the counts were low or ace was low leans on a moral victory ha My reasoning didn’t incorporate solar this AMO that … i’m sure that stuff has a numerical significance when using linear approaches to the statistics over extended periods of time and is probably just as valid. I just kept it simple and was looking at recent papers regarding how climate change is affecting the circulation medium all over the planet -,admittedly a lot of those discussions are actually mirroring some of my own observations that I’ve been writing about here and elsewhere… Maybe it’s just coming to a similar conclusion via different means. I think I did post some hints that I didn’t think would be a very good season along the eastern seaboard which at the time was related to the same reasoning regarding circulation components of the hemisphere earlier last spring. you know as a somewhat unrelated matter to this discussion, but perhaps more important to the purpose of this thread … it might be interesting if we have a surplus of OHE in the gulf and adjacent southwest Atlantic up the eastern seaboard as we plumb deeper into the cold season. You know maybe we can actually get one of these cold surges to kiss that with some bigger deltas

You folks do that in the basement … interesting.