Typhoon Tip

What part of this autumn having a ‘traditional feel’ is unclear or requires a Emoji some of you are dinks. You don’t “like” something … you gotta cast that shade at the content. … well reality called. Tough shit! you don’t get a perpetuity satisfaction sometimes. Lol

I just hope the Patriots don’t return to older tradition… Lol. And by that I mean like prior to 2000

Impression it has conjured in me is one that harkens back. Reminiscent and restoring faith in a normal seasonal progression. And it’s worth saying it that way. It really is … because from Sandy’s to sans normal foliage season, to early snows, I almost can’t recall a Fall that didn’t have a spectrum oddities to contend with. Autumn is naturally going to offer a return to variability … but since ~ 2000 this season has gotten into the habit of exceeding that Rockwellian parody. This year just sensibly touches me like older tradition. It seems observational data tends to support much of this portrait, too. HFD and ORH are -.6 and +.2 respectively. Which for all intents and purposes… ? normal. Meanwhile, the colors flashed across the landscape perhaps just a week later than 1980 … but of particular notice to me is that species stayed within their color wheel. I got used to saying “…that tree never turns yellow or that one never turned brown.” And their timing has closer to overlapped. Two mornings here, just now, back to back with frost more convincingly occurring at just about the precise climate signal. I mean I’m craving warm cider and authentic donuts at this point.

Nice to get the modeling tech an hour earlier soon...

Seems like the Gfs is going to be the new D8 or 9 coastal bomb model

Yeah the models just don’t wanna relent on that idea with that thing up the coast. And it’s not even clear what that is… Mean it starts out as a weakness in the middle levels and then you get this disproportionate trough curvature at the surface-could take on tropical characteristics as we get closer in the modeling time frame. It is getting kind of close in time so maybe it’s just a big inverted trough/warm frontal hybrid. Either way it’s acting like an inverted block? That’s when the high can’t settle south of the latitude flow so you end up with an East wind blowing into the ridge and we get screwed for a nice warm weather which I would rather have frankly. I don’t want it to be like 48 to 56 with rain mist and fog … I’d rather have it be 72 to 76 which is what that ridge would otherwise couch in the absence of that piece of shit lol Good thing I’m not God because it would be 90° until November 15 and then it would be 20° under 10 feet of snow until March 15

Hm. The thing with the MJO … it’s a constructive feedback or destructive feedback mechanism - it doesn’t actually drive patterns. I’m not exactly sure what Ventrice was talking about/his context there I wasn’t in the room. But just adding. …if the baseline circulation mode forces ridging there … then a given MJO materializes over the left side of the RMM monitoring, it certainly would appear to be a huge motivator. I strongly suspect, in the early days of connection with the MJO index, people leaped on using it but didn’t fully understand that it was more of a feedback/harmonic as opposed to an actual pattern drive. In the weekly discussion/publication … I have noticed an adaptation to that conceptualization as more than years ago, they now describe constructive/ destructive interference against the ENSO this or the circulation mode that and on and so on

It harkens back to the more primitive climate model/projections from the early 1990s… They more than less predicted that global warming would cause propensity for ridging over the northeast Pacific. It was kind of an offset idea for cooling over North America as a local hemisphere scale feedback/circumstance for being downstream of a warming ocean. I think a lot of those earlier more primitive model solutions were never revisited, perhaps because the technology advanced and outpaced the chance to do so. I mean there’s like a new climate model projection every month with some paperwork related to it employing some recently discovered feedback mechanisms and all these are based on observations since those earlier efforts so they are really kind of outmoded. Nonetheless, 2015 was a strange year, and there have been other examples where there’s been an increase in the tendency for negative EPO bursts; observationally it harkens back to those earlier works

I knew I predated you up there by a stretch but I was just asking in case you knew the setting. You know, I just think the weather was more interesting in the 1990s. We had that greatest hurricane season ever recorded, after the greatest heatwave ever recorded in the midwest... that all led the highest seasonal snow total ever recorded, all inside of Pinatubo winters in general... all within 5 years really... Then, we had that weirdly fetish horny 1996-1997 year with the December freaks followed by that 33" April b-j... I don't know. The aughts were very good for canes and winters too. But, that 90s all happened over a span of 5 years... not spread out over the last 20.

I've actually thought about converting that into a short story... I lost the original I wrote back in like 2004 or 2005 when Eastern was in it's earlier hay-days... Then I rewrote it from memory a couple of times since ... These latter reprisals seemed to get the rabble roused enough, despite my personal feeling that the first version back whence was the better of all. See... when you write from the heart, it's so much better than calculating turn of phrases for scientific dictum. Although - I used to get praises back in the day when people seemed to really like reading 10 page dissertations hahaha... Then, scientists discovered "tl;dr" and well... No but sometimes truth is better than fiction and that accounting of that scene from the 10th floor of Fox Tower, peering out across the expanse of the Merrimack River to the other side of the valley as the sky fell to earth in shock snow transition to near white out in < 30 seconds flat, immediately on the heels of some kind of massive positive CG the pulses of which vibrated the structure to it's girders... while wind swayed the building ... was literally ( not figurative) truth. And, basically... sensory overload. No Ray, the Christine diatribe came out at a separate occasion but it was around the same time in life that I indeed met satan yeah.... thanks for bringing that up.

Need a 1967 special to meander around the GOM throwin' deform dendrite bands for 4" stints spanning 100 hours... That'll 'bout get 'im back to normal

Lol. I know about that snow line. I wrote a novel quality anecdote on here a couple of times regarding that

Were you on campus resident when you were there or did you commute? because those bourgeois hall I think was the name of it and the other one and Fox Tower. They emptied out onto the commons and streets for WWIII massive snowball fight… I mean we were establishing factions and moving squadrons of troops into strategic geodesic boundaries. Lol. F awesomest SBF ever … but then the fervor would turned to shivers As those first three or 4 inches that came on really quick started to freeze harder the temperature was crashing to the upper 20s in the snow is starting to go sideways it was taken on that butter scotch nocturnal night glowing blizzard look outside. Snowball fight over. I want to say 15 inches by dawn and maybe another 3 inches during the day, and then it was kind of down to just that blowing light snow that doesn’t really accumulate that following night.

Funny that take… I remember 1992 as NWS having to play a bit of catch-up. two days before hand… I wasn’t even a meteorology major yet. Actually I briefly derailed myself. For some reason I tried to be a music major when I first went to college-how’s that for an out of left fielder. Lol No but I was sitting in some American lit 101 prereq waste of time class. Seated next over was an actual meteorology major. I use to bug her with theories. Anyway it was two days before that storm and she just kind of was staring off out the window and she muttered ‘We don’t know if that’s going to be all rain’ speaking in deference to the Met crowd up in the weather Lab/UML The day that it really got underway and we were getting cat paw rain with undulating snow plumes 900 feet off the deck (3:30 pm vantage from University bridge …39F)… they had to do a cut in on television before the evening news because apparently Worcester was getting utterly destroyed. In fact they had to do cut ins throughout the evening as all kinds of crazy shit started happening. I’ve told the story many times about what I observe that evening with the freakish instantaneous snow flash. Point being I wouldn’t of thought anybody SE was really thinking there was a big storm coming from 1992 because that kind of evolved as it was going on from what I remember. I remember Harvey Leonard on TV saying the next early morning how the snow line was rapidly collapsing SE so even they were going to get 6 inches of snow in Brockton after having gotten 4 to 6 inches of rain! That aspect there …that storm had chapters in its total story.

We’ve obviously beaten this horse 1000 times over the years but I still can’t get over that snow shadow in the Connecticut River Valley… I mean can you imagine if that storm hit with like 1.5°C colder through the column? I mean even if that thermally requires a slightly lower PWAT we’d still be talking about astronomical stack heights. We wouldn’t have had those big gaps like that in lower elevations either. some of course. Yup as awesome as that storm was -one of the greats of all time ……it left something on the table. They all do. Although actually… I’ve always thought that December 23, 1997 as having the highest efficiency I’ve ever seen. Which is interesting because I don’t even know if that registers in a lot of people’s personal annals. Went from a 3 inches of wet snow ending as light drizzle in the interior forecast to 23.5 inches of powder… Doing so in pretty much less than six hours… Skirted by a large area that easily got an excess of a foot with pretty much the same forecast in place…? Certainly that is a strong argument for maximizing efficiency and really for all intents and purposes NOT leaving anything on the table

Yeah. Could be fun. Of course… let’s get the pattern right. I mean if it turns out to be some kind of compressed shit show flow so fast nothing can really mix or anything it doesn’t really matter. We’ll end up with that dry mild winter everyone has self soothing horse blinders for. Recall, we did talk about this in the tropical thread though but how the low ACE might make things interesting in that regard - hypothetically speaking

That too. but you know I guess it really only matters if you invest a lot of time and energy into using this as a primary or a very important social outlet for oneself. Because it really shouldn’t matter whether somebody’s doing that or not – so why does it? logically, people are really pretty deeply invested in site shenanigans. Maybe even more so than they are the actual weather ha ha.. Something like that

I think it’s also kind of a state of cultural aspect, too. You know it’s like the Internet +20 years? People used to be a little bit timid about their approach to using the Internet especially in these social media platforms… It took a while for the general population to become brazen and realize they could operate in the anonymity on the web and act like total assholes. That’s definitely going on/more ubiquitous right now in these “wired” societies. As far as what it means for this forum …I mean not a lot of people in here are really assholes but there is still some of that kind of tendency to ignore the person who is saying what they don’t want to hear. Heh. Contributing in here to hopefully gain recognition as somebody who’s got some insights to offer, left, right and up or down you’d better make sure you are angling your delivery otherwise as was said in Caddyshack, “Oh ho well an you ain’ geddin no coke!”

Right you get a couple of confused emoji’s while the other person gets 20 likes and has a gifted insight … Nothing can hold a candle to the objective mental responsibility of the masses lol. If it meant their mortgage payments or whatever they’d smarten up and give credit where it’s due real fast. So you get what you get and this is a past time/recreation. oh well

12z GFS has the raging nor’easter off a single closed isohypses up to eastern seaboard now too

No kidding… you know the euro has never liked a clean ridge to date, re that mid ext range And in fact the GFS isn’t altogether very clean either. They both it keep building these over/top high-pressure systems that drill cold llv flow into the foundation of the higher heights. It’s an aspect oft seen in spring handling … great! We get to butt bang April’s in the same year… The sun is feeble and getting feebler by day. This late in the sol season … a SE-NE equation of state flow injecting under ridging overhead … you don’t get two be warm from ridging over head. Fleetly different universe up there

It also depends on how people read/take in the information. "Attribution studies" shouldn't be disrespected, either - if it's done right, and the chi test is > .05 side blah blah, but the calculatons don't mean 100% causality - in other words, it may not be entirely why, but is at least partial. That is not well understood, and those that write the papers are careful to point that sort of statistical theory out, but it seems to fail to get across... I've read posits ... nothing from them were very declarative. Meanwhile, I'm constantly hearing reprisals of other people's work that sounds like 'so and so said this because of that' - which isn't usually what that source stating. This happens a lot. We don't live in an "information responsible" society, not from private sector recounting, not from major media... not much in between, nor for the 'water coolers' either. We've become increasingly irresponsible 'liars' in a lot of ways. Particularly if we need to cherry pick to fit narratives ...and on and on...

Guys there is a semi permanent warm pool there that’s emerged over the last decade that’s been shown to resist forcing by either the ENSOs, or seasonal wind stressing.

The “looking stellar” aspect of November (than waning out ) is kind of really what’s been going on as part of the climate change signal, with the folding hemisphere/early meridional expression stuff that’s being papered. … said papers being mathematical. As we get into December January February the hemisphere reaches its highest compressed state so the wind velocity in the interface between the Farrell and Hadley cells (steepest mean) reach their seasonal strongest… And that stretches the x-coordinate —>reducing planetary wave numbers …. which tends to pancake or offset rather, the meridional autumn… I was snarky last page… But in a more levelheaded approach I really don’t have a good feeling about this winter as behaving much different than the last several - which really all have kind of taken us through that journey every year with early blocks and high convoluted flow types tending to end up being fast and more “sheery “ I do acknowledge some caveat emptors, however. … willing to see how it plays out One, still not completely sold we’re not gonna have some kind of interference with normal stratospheric chemistry —> thermal disruptions due to volcanism over the last year. How and or if that even does so is available to question. I haven’t found any specific empirical evidence that the stratosphere was infused but who knows… Two, I’m also curious about the GRB that just took place - deep field astrophysical phenomenon. Though it was 2.5 billion light years away this actually set records for the most intense x-ray and cosmic ray burst ever recorded - not sure if that distinction is relative to that distance scale. But that’s what’s being reported. There was a defined ionospheric modulation when that event swept through our solar system. It’s long but known that sudden stratospheric warming events modulate TEC from the bottom up … Strong enough GRB event might “cleanse” some ozone population out if the PV column high up in the stratosphere anyway …

Once November hits I throw in the towel on warmth though… Mostly it’s just knowing that it’s inevitable. I mean you’re going through the solar nadir over those next three months so there’s no use in fighting it lol. I like my winters frontloaded… steady diet of unusual cold and sustained, and dappled with surpassing significant snow events from about November 5 through February 5th … Then, equally as “realistic” … it’s 80 to 101 with stratospheric hard on convection towers until the following 3-strike EC ‘cane season. … totally could happen dude.. No but really front loaders are unfortunately rare. 1995 blah blah was king … but there are some other decent ones. Like those great Decembers back in the aughts, ‘07 and ‘08 and ‘10. There’s probably others going all the way back that at least get you to a C+ grade for early expression. But by in large the heft of all of them suggests we have to wait until after Christmas. And now with cc mucking around with stuff who knows how that’s going to distribute things