Typhoon Tip

28 was the low here. Now, 33 ORH, 1000' up, 42 was the low, now 51 33 51 That is how you invert a sounding... and fake enough cold to enable winter geeks into believing the season's changed when looking at all available guidance and techniques there ... there is no winter ever again!

SAI? what you lost me

I believe the causal-link is in the HC expansion ... The expanding equatorial cell doesn't mean the cell is a stronger circulation eddy - in fact, it is weaker...albeit spread out over a larger integral, the same mass transport... blah blah. But the point being, that weakening is disconnecting the previous systemic triggers that got El Nina/warming ENSO's to ... Probably rooted in planetary sloshing by way of longer term low/secondary frequencies associated to MJO's but that's hypothesis. The expanding HC and weakening momentum is screwing up all that circuitry though. The last warm ENSO failed to register many expected impacts along the climate routes that it typically does... part of this. Also, I suspect it is partly involved in why we have seen many hemispheric circulation modes,...since the aughts ... observably uncouple from the base-line ENSO state during winters.

Is he sexually involved with the entire fossil fuel sector of the Industrial world

yeah...it's coming back to me. I was more raised 80s ...but staples and pin fragments ... weird stuff. I wonder if any of that was traced back to the deviant psychotic - I don't recall ever seeing a news story about someone 'getting caught' tainting. hm. You know, I remember there was once a Tylenol scare back then, ...early 80s I think. Man I was young... but I used to get migraines ( aura kind.. actually still do from time to time) and that was back before NSADS like Advil. Which neither work terribly well, but Advil is better. Migraines ...they're a different kind of neurological thing where most over-counter pain alleviation are less useful... But Tylenol was the only choice other than Aspirin, which really ...Asprini never helped me ever. In fact, it added nausea to a near death headache. wtf am I talk oh yeah, there was a string of deaths because someone some how was getting cyanide into Tylenol containers. You know, 'kill the pain'. I remember being terrified that I wouldn't have any means at all to fight the extraordinary .. very very special kind of headache agony that can only be described to the listener by way of actually having the listener ...get a f*ing migraine.

I saw a CNN margin headline last week, ...some SE interior/rural woman ( of course the mug shot couldn't be more unappealingly grim and glower lookin,' like they always are if not also for affect...), was indicted on negligent homicide because her 18-mo old daughter 'found the pieces of candy'. You know... tiny child, red pieces of candy.... Not likely a situation exercised in a great deal of restrain once the stash was found. Probably devoured the whole lot of it... Of course it was interior SE U.S. rural, right - You know, just a comment on social mores ... It's so fantastically delicious how we are not supposed to stereotype for what is 100% f*ing true about whatever it is that is being absolutely and correctly f*ing labeled!

This is how people are, anyway, regardless of genre/context. The Internet 'socializing' just pulls that specific human attribute out and particularly showcases it - lol... No, but regardless of domain, people don't take responsibility very willingly for what they don't want to perceive as being true. It's not just a weather thing. It got society into trouble when they couldn't/didnt want to believe the hype behind a certain president's chances to be elected, and being unable to do so... cost the election - probably.... I mean lots of moving parts there, but all gears grinding, the 'threat' was ignored or at minimum, not taken seriously enough. Boom. Just an example.

Oh yeah ...'90s. I think I said 80s but it was more 90s.

Basically .. .teetering with a dystopian melt-down of society constructs - yup. I agree with what I suspect you are dancing with there... To quote an oft' miss-used trope, we find our selves culturally fighting off a rather Orwellian stench. It's sort of incarnate. There's a histrionic wave surging through modernity, that is a stimulus response to all that is zapping the minds of the populations that constitute modernity... It's basically this simple: take a community in a state of quiescence; destabilize the status quo significantly enough; panic ensues; stability dissolves. That basic recipe we are witnessing, extended beyond a single generational time span is consistent with present global state of affairs. Due to technology? - I don't want to impugn it like a fringe ideologue, but fact of the matter is..it matches a pattern that appears to recur throughout history. So is borne a hypothesis of mine, venturing into anthropology of modern man (which I am a Meteorologist so it's a bit of a stretch HAHAHA) But weather guys/gals tend to see patterns in shit. I don't know. But looking back across history... what has happened a decade or two (or shorter) prior to most of the large scaled states of duress (war)? - a wave of unsettling information disrupted the status quo. In more modern times, the radior preceded WW1 ...--> WWII became incensed and was really a continuation of the same hostility, but Industrial Revolution's tech began to alter humanity and provide even more informational resources that offered more corruption of assumption and lent to populous movements ..inevitably WWII. Surveilance of foreign affairs became the paranoia affair of all the "world Pentagons" so ... we become Military response happy species - those that guide in part or fully within Industrial advantage. But if we go back, paranoia and destabilization can be linked to the fall of the Roman Empire... There are other examples. War was preceded by waves of destabilzing senses of mass security. We are in that state with how the Internet has been transformative. Hence the "prediction" may not end so well ...I mean, if there's any truth to the former hypothesis.

yeah... folks initial response to that missive, they seem too focused on the exact words instead of seeing the essence of 'dark humor' point? I'm not saying tainted treats is ubiquitous practice. I'm speaking to the holiday's TOT practice being sullied by a panoply of reasons; at what point do folks begin to evaluate the futility of the engagement and stop forcing it? ... if they are jumping through weather, or Pandemic, or pathos in society. As far as the tainted candy, I "think" that was a fad among nut jobs more like the 1980s? - but that's no sociological aver. But -et el- nowaday, that "might be" something one would question more so than ever. I mean, this expose' proving that there are far more people amongst us coveting a wish to do harm, randomly, triggered by their own unpredictable psychosis - at what point does the 1980s become fun for fucks again. It's more of a frustration tongue in cheeker

It's probably regional/ethos -determined behavior, but around SNE ... are children even TOTing on Halloween any more? It seems there are too many protocols to make that a faith's perfection anymore. Like...you have to inspect all the candy - if you are a good parent/care giver. And at some point in doing so, the spirit of it all is so ruined it almost gets embarrassing that your actually inspecting fucking candy. If it is that much trouble, why are we doing this? I guess maybe it's a learning op, a life lesson for kids never to trust the largess of anyone, and that community spirit of any kind is in reality, a "fauxity" that can't be trusted and is bullshit. Great! On the flip side, having poison and/or pins and needles lodged into mini Snickers ...is just the sort of evil that should be represented by the celebration demons - so there's that too. Humanity has gone and made the date literal. I'm being snarky ... obviously. Still, the whole idea of it seems exposed and sort of fading - like some future generation would tell their grand kids, 'back when we used to -'. We had Halloween "canceled" ( how does one cancel that? Like is some cop going to arrest a kid for TOTing) locally like 5 times in the last 7 years for either snow storms or pandemics ... And if it's a risk anyway in a year when those factors aren't intervening, it just seems like why even engage when there's so many hoops to jump through. interesting-

Oh you could smell it coming ... I know that might sound weird but - I don't speak for everyone's experience; certain weather types have an aroma to me. Last night it was 42 at 7:10 and the scent of the ambiance between car and grocery store was 'icy'. I remember thinking this'll freeze. 27 here ..with a couple of 25s dappled around home sites. It's been a number of years since I've caught this, but ...still air ( I mean dead still), cold attributed leaf fall. They rained under canopies through the sideways sun of morning. The late holdouts were caving to seasonal change. Unfortunately ...the modeling tenor sings a different tune for the next 10 days, lol. But you know, even in bootlegging, it's heralding, because we're not likely doing this on still nights a month ago.

I agree partially. We’ve been doing it all summer. Always shy of potential. It’s magnifying now that the solar contribution is tepid yup. So it’s more noticeable but we keep being disproportionately cool relative to the synoptic look. It’s hypothesis but I think the mid levels are repeatedly outpacing the low levels so the two fields tend to quasi uncouple. Ridges peel off and escape before thermal momentum from one day to the next can relay launch pads. That’s more summer … but we’ll have 560 hydro stats with a 4 or 5 lapse rate from 860 to the surface this weekend, so now it gets to make sense. But it’s more than that I suspect.

This whole synopsis is fake cold by day too. The sound curves must be straight up.

Well who knows what happens in latter November. I would’ve thought a week ago more favorably but I’m starting to have my doubts. These recent seasonal entry trends favor the early cold snap and a chance of snow but I think we’re kind of getting through that by dodging the bullet this year Beyond which … I mean there’s always random chance for pattern modulations that are just anomalies couched inside of longer-term anomalies, and all that confusion. Otherwise, what I’m looking at oer the next two weeks …we don’t really have have much chance of seeing any kind of wintry weather without some kind of seriously out of left field things interceding.

It might… but probably wouldn’t offer the bigger corrections we used to sort of pretend we werent hoping to see. Ha I think they’re at a point with the technology/assimilation techniques where that kind of correction is a thing of the past. Something I’ve been monitoring since - really the last big correction that was the Boxing Day storm - i’m not seeing the correction tendencies that we used to re systems <—84 to 120 hour frames since 2010 and the new GFS version regularity

It’s all they’re fixing…?

We could be above normal and get 60 inches them two months tho

It’s been a very strange … perhaps under the radar of anyone caring, week of synoptic weather.

We’re actually getting measurable out of mist plume as seen on radar. IR sat has 0

What a disaster over the west Atlantic into the coastal plain from the mid Atlantic all the way up… Clear and present cluster fuck – if there was ever a better description for a train wrecking the weather pattern that would be a neat trick. I mean it is just a gigantic morass of barotropic/baroclinic fragments, en masse, drifting to the northwest from over 1000 miles out. Anyone see the micro depression out there? It is kind of a neat feature

Heh. Yeah but that may be too warm. You know actually we had almost a week straight of 70s to near 80 after that snowfall two years ago Halloween in early November… I mean obviously theres hyperbole in the jest sentiment …but certainly compared to what’s going on the last three days down here in dog shit kingdom if it got up to 71 on Sunday with full sun and light wind ? I think most would agree

having said all that we could end up being destroyed in november this year

We pay for it now ...and then hopefully, our purchase turns around as what could be the best weather in the geologic history of Octobers, Friday thru next Tuesday. 60 to start, 74 to finish, with almost no wind by Saturday onward, with 120 mi visibility. 2-meters look too cool for 558 to 563 hydrostats and 850s to 11C. All we have to do is make sure the GFS doesn't verify -

I honestly struggle with believing what we’ve/are observing so far this autumn has much to do with ENSO.