Typhoon Tip

no kidding ...? LOL

A GFS flavor would likely result in what Brook's is screaming re the overrunning type messy winter storm structures. The EPS ... what does the UKMET family look like? I bet that might be interesting - but it may not go out far enough? The UKMET loves to curl the flow early, so if it is somehow avoiding the SW tuckies, heh.

Nope - ... not allowed. either George runs the model from his basement ... or bust.

exactly ... And I don't have a problem with it doing that per se. I find it interesting that the GFS wants to force a pattern change toward that variant, where the other's in the playground want the +PNA/PNAP version

It bothers me that the last several cycles of the GFS operational version have/are just about 180 degrees out of sync with the EPS in the 240+ time range, wrt to the 500 mb isohypses layout. It doesn't bother me for deterministic forecasting - per se... But I do feel pretty strongly that a pattern change ...if indeed that takes place, would likely already be exerting between D6 and 10. SO what? is the GFS trying to avoid even changing that pattern?

Definitely more of "burst" appeal to this snow at the moment. Still just 28, but uniform mid sized aggregates with vis down to 1/2 mi. Not looking at radar so as to not taint the experience with reminders LOL

I've been trying to pay more attention to this model ... get a handle on it's usefulness. It's referenced from time to time in NWS afd's, etc. Can't figure it out. It had a backed solution like this 3 days ago... when none other did. Now, the others do, and it won't - okay. Still new to me with this tool though. Actually ..as an afterthought, I do recall there was other suggestions from guidance et al for a second wave/bulging west, but it wasn't done this way. Interesting. I remember posting that I don't typically like the bulge back west scenario in modeling at the time. But this is different in that the low is cut off more fully and waits 24 hours before retro -

It's for symbolism perhaps ...but considering where this winter has been at least out side my doors here in Ayer, seeing it snowing at 28 F is a rare, precious come-by. Well formed small to mid sized dry aggregates, with a couple of degrees to spare no less.

Correct, it is important when evaluating to keep in mind that the magnitude scalar value of total change, is less important than the occurrence change blah blah But this weekend’s more recent emergence in the runs may not be triggered by that NAO … it’s really more a situation of getting caught by it. The ocean cyclone’s set into motion first … then the NAO dumps SDs, and in terms of what that means to the pattern … the.cyclone gets a retrograde momentum applied to it - That appears to be the larger scaled super synopsis. Not a major event. Probably bands rotating in with wet snow cat paws on the Cape with a stripe farther W maybe BOS to PVD and points E.

Re the weekend folks should be aware of this indirect /possible factorization

Walt, it's a personal view ...but I suspect it ...and the 19th/20th ..et al, trending very recently, may be transitively related to the pattern change. Noting the deep layer tropospheric circulation mode over much of central and northern Asia is changing from a westerly predominating flow to a north, in as little as 48 hours! That sends a robust signal down stream and resets the dial across the Pac... Not sure why the GFS has been resisting, but the 0z GEF mean resumed... I don't believe a progressive/native GFS bias is well suited for where the hemisphere is heading post the 20th... so that's negotiable. But the GGEM and Euro are already pressing a latitude ridge signal into western continent by the end of their runs ... The ocean storm in the foreground may be a coincidence, but it actually fits where the hemisphere will be about a week later - fascinating.

There is some chance this 19th/20th feature suppresses S-E in time. The advertised pattern change nearing and especially post the 20th, may be indirectly involved in why. Noticing in both the GGEM and Euro solutions...riding is approaching the western continent and coming on board over the end frames of the 00z run. That may influence the aspects already over the eastern continent. May be evidenced in the NAO telecon, which is slumping through the period, ... moving a scalar mode of ~+1SD toward neutral. While not a phase reversal, I suspect that is responding to the 'crunch' of the wave spacing across N/A ( transitively causing the NAO domain heights to begin to rise 2ndary/ or non-linear wave response if we wanna get into a popsicle headache). But that backs us into a plausibility for less Lakes cutter. The thing is... the EPS and GEPs are not interested - so that puts this into a low confidence, albeit still non-zero chance for success. Sometimes, however, the souped up main operational versions begin to converge on an idea and through rarer, the less refined dispersed solutions then gather in the other direction. I wouldn't bother to mention this post but...we in fact have modeled hemispheric en mass circulation modulation taking place that offers feasibility. So we'll see

Sloppy analysis ... I have not honesty been paying much attention to today's affairs. But just cursory eval against synoptic awareness, a nice little warm advection snow burst. Radar filling in rather quickly over CT and western MA over the last hour..

Noting the NAO slump ... not really a mode change, but it is neutralizing from +1 SD - may be the other side of the same coin with the PNAP changes forcing the NAO domain down. Either way, that might be a sensitivity indicator/suppression tendencies correcting in small but crucial amount, given time.

Also, did anyone notice SE zones could be clipped by ocean storm or OES enhances between D4 and 5?

There is a chance this could evolve sooner with a risk insert... While the 19th/20th may not directly be embedded in the extended range pattern change expectation, but could transitively be influenced ( that outta sound confusing!). The GGEM and Euro ideas surrounding +PP building over QUE and confluence in that area, might be getting enhanced by the ridge surging into western N/A - this latter aspect is the leading edge of the changes ... so, there may be some causality there. Anyway, this is not unheralded, these solutions with cold available at least to CNE and possibly to the Pike in Mass ( if not colder?). I thought yesterday that the bigger polar high idea the GFS had the previous day ...might not be baseless. And it still isn't. There's time ...

You all need another “”fix” to rely upon in times like these other than these models lol

yeah ..this totally happens all the time ....

The GFS offers yet a third option to the EPS vs the GEFS ... No pattern at all - This run has a 9.4 wave pattern over the Hemisphere at D11.5. Garbage solution. It's clearly having trouble on the interface between patterns out there. I'd definitely sans any operational GFS runs outside of 7 or so days, even more so than the normal for extended shenanigans, until NCEP figures out the physics of non-linear wave mechanics...

It’s really not a bad day to look frankly but it may turn active sooner

That first one kind of reminds me of 9394

I’m thinking that the GEF’s machine is trying to see a negative EPO frankly

lol, yup When I was younger I used to hate that… Because it always started happening just when the snow pack was going to really get crazy-we’ve never really had a snow pack really get crazy. 2015 was the closest we ever got to that psycho realm … but the storm train shut off. The last week of February into that March stay very cold with deeply negative daytime highs in the 20s if not high teens, deep into March but there was no storms. It all just shut off as though the hemisphere just ran out of short waves. I always felt that if we had kept up the storm train we could’ve actually made that something special that year something like a 6 foot on the level pack. Ye 1700s style i’ve never been a snow depth guy. Mainly just cause it’s too frequently challenged. But once in a while will get the resting snow pack like between storms around 30 … 32 inches and I start to wonder. It always seems to choose that rough depth to fade back or stop. Talking about where I’ve been in that 300 to 500 foot elevation range. I’m sure it’s different for people of above 700

Yeeeeah it does but, transitions like that don’t happen on a dime. It’ll start being noticeably more twilight at 5:30 and slightly warmer sun to the skin and all that shit probably in the last week of January etc. I mean slight first. Just using that as a vague sort of metric. Folks shouldn’t be offended by that though - just in case - because most of the damage in 2015 (for ex) happened after the solar min ended that month. Really doesn’t mean jack shit until probably the ides of March. The snow retention may be affected because sun shining will start to shard the snow back … detail that only an excruciating nerd would know lol

You know it’s model runs like that GFS… Does NCEP really parameterize the models to deliberately stop storms from forming Heh. Just reading the onion during lunch… In the spirit of their headlines, “NCEP cites ability to stop storm genesis in forecast models a ringing success”