Typhoon Tip

I doubt it... The continent is too dry. The flow is WSW under that polar boundary transporting a kinetically charged well mixed layer originating from the west TX high country. Good luck. If we are safely in that warm conveyor like the GFS? not much cloud. That's a red flag warning scenario there this early and prior to our own geographical green up. Even if the RH sigmas are juicier ( 800 to 300 mb levels) I'd personally lean on that being dryer verifying.

Yeah, I'm also at the same time a little apprehensive about going super warm at any point prior to getting that fucking piece of shit 90/60 negative anomaly scoured out of the Canadian Shield once an for all. It's not like it's very readily observable as an influence, but it is definitely an influence our our weather, nonetheless. The polar boundary with the exceptional temperature gradients we've been observing along the S periphery of the rough NP-GL-NE/MA regions is because it is up there, perpetually loading dope cold into those regions ( or attempting to); at the same time there's a CC residue/tendency to go above normal where ever and when ever the sun is working on Industrial stained atmosphere underneath it. Historic heat wave in PHX, notwithstanding. Lot of descriptive prose in there that probably lost the comprehension of about 6 return users ...with a possible 7th, but excluding those razor sharp contributors to the site brain, most people are aware of both the frequency, and rareness, of 34 to 80 across a mere 200 miles phenomenon recurring this spring so far. In addition to steepening the gradient ...it also prones our region to BDs and/or failing warm frontal positions in general. But, you know ... there are two aspects concurrently true, and are observationally competing. We are not hugely below normal in temperatures to date - in fact, +3 in March at HFD and ORH! The pattern is a colder than normal construct. That concurrent state is a nuance that I fully personally believe exposes the fact that heat is merely just suppressed, but not absent. And there is a difference there. Whopping important one, too. For one, it's confusing... but for another, it's hard to go multi-day safely in a warm sector while all this stuff is in play.

how much did you wind up with ? I bet with high sun shining on snow, the dry wet-bulb actually ends up being a sublimation hisser. It'll be evaporating like dry-ice man. The sun doesn't just 100% bounce off the snow... it will warm the molecules in air-contact interface, to above the DP temp and that's evaporating quickly. Like an "acid layer" eating into it. It's less like melting pack and more like going directly to gas at an accelerated rate that way. But obviously.. one wouldn't notice this if you have a ton to start

As an aside, today and tomorrow both should bust MOS like 1-3 F I think. It's not a huge or even noticeable thing. Not 'busts' per se. Just that we are Sep 3 sun equiv, with just about as unadulterated solar as is physically doable on this planet, with the possible exception of say 1,000 miles out amidst the Sahara ... I doubt these machine numbers have the lowest 500 feet of explosive super adiabats locked down. It's a fetish of mine to test MOS in April and May

I suppose if you have 6 days to know it's coming by the time it does, meh. When it comes to na na na-na scaling ( haha ), in order of irate the least is that one. 3 is knowing for days your fucked. Oh k... gradual acceptance. 2 is surprisingly BD's ... you'd think they'd be #1 but no... Usually you have some inkling that a BD is possible. Also, knowing it's BD time of year ... 1 is when it is warm for days in the charts. Plans are made. Then, the models pull the rug at that sweet 36 hours ahead deliberate look. This rendition is the most annoying. To help qualify this .. imagine a historic blizzard, not like that isolated SE Mass job last Feb... I mean interior VA to Maine, in 2-3 feet of snow, with a stall off Montauk Point across 2 cycles of Lunar tides, for 5 days of guidance. Nat Guard is on call... APs are preemptively canceling flights. General states panic as ems light up FEMA web-site graphic. General state of dopa O.D. awe --> 36 hours out that first model run with nothing. umm

KFIT GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 4/08/2026 0000 UTC WED 08| THU 09| FRI 10| SAT 11| SUN 12| MON 13| TUE 14| CLIMO 33 55 X/N 48| 24 59| 35 66| 44 60| 32 60| 44 70| 55 75| Heh, nothing like being 20 points above climo at both ends of the diurnal range, at 6 days lead time in a MOS product that is pretty heavily weighted toward climatology at that range ... I do think next week is kind of 'first test' for this summer - personally - because I feel this year's season has a shot at some historic heat. The reason primarily being the pan-dimensional dry antecedent continent, with lower persisting soil moisture anomalies, right as we are about to jump into the highest sun angles of the year. Keep in mind, we are less than 1 month from solar max entry... on or about May 6. We just need to shed the 90/60 polar vortex and things can turn around and catch civility off-guard. We still live in a CC-enraged synergistic heat event planetary system and that's not going away... This seems to be a good candidate year to test if we send the mercury into over-achieving warm results, both relative to pattern... but relative to "when it gets hot". Again, we need to get the patterns ...so we'll see. In the meantime, this next Tues/Wed, if that boundary does hull up NW and leaves our region soaked in WSW flow of dry kinetically charged air mass, that's an opportunity to over perform. Being 20 over climo weighting at D6 isn't trivial

The targeted for misery factor might be even more delicious the next day on Wednesday...

Brian's rage would know no bounds should this be the status at 21z this next Tuesday afternoon. Or PF! haha. Nothing like an 82, Metrowest of Boston, while it's a warm cloth to the balls 38 in N VT

MOS should bust cool on Thursday

looks like sun for an hour along the Pike

By standard non-relative ONI convention, the strength index denotes 1.5 as the cut off for "strong" As I said, the modeling ( per CPC ) presently shows a cluster mean < than 1.5 (... granted, it's rising when the graph cuts off at the end of OND, only slowly). The problem is, RONI is a very necessary method for assessing how the ENSO modes might integrate/couple with the surrounding dispersion into the mid latitude pattern. It is less integrating, due to CC, for the purpose of discussion. But it's also not absolute... it's just an assessment tool. Those ENSO modes back before ~20 years ago took place in enough of a different global environment that a more linear approach was a better predictor. This is why the Relative ONI was constructed, because as the climate change accelerates ( frankly ) all these indices are either going to get suss or are already so. Anyway, CPC model mean rises to +1.3 or +1.4 but unfortunately the outlook cuts off before we know if mid winter rises beyond 1.5 ( probably so, just based on the trajectory of the graphical mean). However, laboring to 1.5, doing so during the Relative ONI methodology arm of a very coherent CC acceleration, doesn't smack as strong or super in the end hemispheric coherence. I think there's some excitement seeking - like another crowd emergent motif. Sometimes it just hits at the right timing, and it's vastly over popularized. It may in fact go on to rise to 2.8 ...becoming something special, but I wanna know what are the mathematical/analytic reasons.

The modeling looks like the key 3.4 region rises to just under +1.5 toward this next Xmas. Makes sense I suppose ... El Nino is Spanish for "Christ child" and is given to the name of the phenomenon for a reason; the canonical time of year for it to occur. Anyway, 1.5 is not super this or even very strong that. Where is this extremeness coming from ?

could be worse ... 44 years ago today, NYC-BOS were in the later stages of an April blizzard.

The (not so) sci-fi version of this El Nino... It will rise to historic proportions, but ... no one saw the bigger issue coming - though in retrospect, really should have. Why? because it already happened once, in 2023. The whole planet surged, by almost .4 C spanning a 2.5 month period that spring, brining the planet perilously close to the theorized threshold of +1.5 C over the IR. Only this time ... by a whole degree C Such that not only are we at 2.5 over the Industrial Revolution entry mean, it is so crazy warm that relative ONI renders almost meaningless outside of the immediate tropical atmosphere. Vaguely coupling to the mid latitude pattern ( meaning weakly correlating) It's going to be the first panic year of this ongoing CC explosion, which just moves slower than human perception - geologically? It's detonating. 0 summer ice in 5 years. Roth slides into the ocean... Global tsunamis claims a billion lives

OH yeah, that's an excellent point. I keep having to also remind myself that we are not running around naked at 3:29 a.m. when it's supposedly a warm cloth Asian massage out there. Seriously... there's probably a pretty significant sensible/exposure bias involved - there has to be... we're human "animals". Completely enslaved to what we see, hear, smell, touch or taste in our defining the nature of our surrounding. It's also as least partial in why CC is so easy to collectively deny ... it just doesn't readily appeal. Not readily enough.

I noticed that too... Might be the last snow in air we see outside alpine regions until the mandatory, season ruining Halloween 3.7"

These bold' are all of it. Two aspects zooming past one another in humanity's race toward the cliff. The first one is a complete and utter misconception about climate change, one that I feel pretty strongly is the fault of the origianl science PR vision. When it became clear in the atmospheric geophysical mathematics decades ago, their campaign felt like an attack on civility traditions... functional heritages ... generational ingrained ways and means. When in reality, global warming, per se, isn't the problem. Whaaaaaa ! It's not, not per se. The problem is, adaptation capacity. That's always been it, and as far as I can hear or read, very few seem to really know this. The world could warm 100 points - if all species can adapt, in time, the conversation is rendered moot. Whenever we hear these less than adequately educated self-appointed spoke persons of denial attempt to invoke the argument, "the earth has been warmer before", or "climate change is part of the Earth's history" ... we cringe. Once one understands that derivatives and partial derivatives in the integration of the whole system ( i.e., change with respect other factors ( DX/ DY) ) is what creates the nature of all and nature itself, they then know that the former talking points are just labels and scalars. Meaningless in the definition of what the problem really is. Those that continue to rely on the scalars and won't bother to get with the program, to paraphrase Brian Cox, 'you should be largely ignored ... even chastised'. Because your opinion is uncoupled from objective causality. The 2nd one is 'virtue signaling' ... At least the deniers are honest about their feelings - gotta give 'em that. Take the entire en masse acceptance demographic... of them, a scant % are actually doing anything to really curb their ways and means - they may as well be denying. I've been raging about the 5 senses evolutionary limitation on perceived threats for years. We are a species really only just on the cusp of escaping our primitive state - for the sake of discussion... call primal state any animal that is not modifying their own genetics, sending meat wagons to the moon, and on the verge of Quantum Computing ... We are smart enough to innovate these, which means ... we are also intrinsically capable of predicting how what we do will both effect and affect. Yet, we are still slaved to only believing what these intellectual gifts are telling us when we can see, hear, smell, touch, or taste the threat. I really think at a very fundamental, most discrete level ...that's it. You tell a person to step off the train track, 'a train is coming,' they pier up and down the rail in either direction - they must not believe it unless it is seen or heard. If they had, you never would have had to tell them in the first place. So, humanity is standing around on the track, arguing about the color shoes they are wearing to the engagement when it comes to this global warm stuff. Which is kind of funny, because what the hell else are the tracks for. Climate change doesn't really have a real-time observation-advocate that immediately appeals to the senses - this is a problem when attempting to convey any sense of urgency.

I'll tell ya... the GIS montly/NASA temperature anomaly product for March might be interesting. My hunch is, like every month since October it willl have a relative min situated over mid latitude eastern continent, while it is comparatively warmer to much warmer most everywhere else. I've been posting this product on or around the 10th of the months since, showing this repeating leitmotif to hide CC from Winterwolf hahaha

I prefer to remain non-confrontational... heh Having said that, he did say, "March finished +4 " I'm not sure where he was looking - I could see that happening though because a theme I've been playing with in my posts is that we get modestly warmer than normal monthly means out of colder looking synoptic constructs. It's one of those obfuscating charms of CC. It makes sense. If the d(T) is always positive, that means we're on a slope, so the same synoptic conditions should register at least decimals warmer than the last incarnation. It may be a straw man argument at this point, but I do sense that people rely a bit too much on the old adage, "CC doesn't make it warm today" .... noooo, buuuut, it does mean one should expect it to be warmer than the last time. It's just another subversion thing people that know better than to deny, but can't stand the truth.

huh... Ironic. The PV's showing signs of finally shifting away from 90/60 in these ensemble means toward mid month.

To jbenedet's point ... the operational runs are coherently weaving a warmer tapestry out there beyond this thing. Thursday through the weekend... The cold air intrusion now thru Wednesday alleviates during Thursday. It's not going to wildly surge the other way, but 540 to 552dm hydrostats in a return WSW continental flow and ample post equinoxian sun ... will likely present modestly above normal. The next cold front after doesn't carry nearly the same bite/post cold weight as depicted.

I makes me wonder what the world is capable of delivering around here, if/when the pattern foot actually did flip warm.

Yeah, I'm just open speculating/making conjecture on the BD frequency aspect in that morning joe From a "personal" anecdotal perspective, I've observed more than is normal even for here? Relative to date that is. If we were to do the last 10 days the rest of the way, we'll have clocked 3 to 4 times the normal seasonal loading by June 1. That's a lot ha! I don't disagree about the March numbers though. I snuck in a few edits into that post ... one of which was the jest that (CC + the increasing solar)/2 is skewing matters. These latter factors are creating tension in perspectives over the years, because the patterns are cold typology but we still get nuisance warm anomalies. interesting.

We've had decent springs once in a while over the decades but those are more the exception to the rule. As climate and data empirically show, we more typically suffer these ~ 6-week purgatories between the end of March and early May ... give or take. Some are cold and "that one last chance to snow", along with a bit of questionable perspectives on reality hold outs ... heh, notwithstanding. For those that long for warmth and covet those visions, this year seems particularly annoying so far. What is happening(ed) is a very persistent PV, wobbling around 80..90W/60N up in Canada. So long as that is the case there is going to be an anomalous polar jet around the southern periphery. Having jet streams fixated across S and SE Canada in the means are going to create problems for us to ever warm up prior to June 15 really ... for a much longer discussion of reasons. Just in the past 6 days ...we've observed like 3 different species of BD fronts. N doors, E doors, quasi BDs whose identity lost in a normal door... We may be carrying a positive anomaly in BD even for our spring lorn region, but it's because we have a multi-month ridiculously resonant pattern more typically observed in an average January. If you took the typical January pattern foot, and mapped (CC+ SOLAR seasonal change)/2 over top, you get what we are getting.

I keep having to remind myself it's just the first week of April... It's just a slog, this time of year.