Typhoon Tip

To be fair, the Euro is behind American guidance of couple of hours; we don't know if that comparison is true per 12z ...

Considering all that is immensely distracting at this time ... reasonably high probability that I am the only person on the planet that's thinking about this. Thursday has 850 mb near 0C ... in pure unabated Equinoxian sun. Winds are very light, too. So the 2-meter is 44 on the synoptic products. The machine numbers don't go out that far. But I've seen it be 60 F in mid February over a snow pack with 0C at 850 mb - not that the boundary layer gets that tall. But the adiabatic assumption is still going to be 70 .. 80% well enough. Anyway, bottom line ... major nape day/d-slope dandy. I could see that being 53 or 54 F with gullies bubbling with quick work of tomorrows snow pack. I'm just nerdly enough to think this is interesting -

I'm hoping someone who cares enough just a little more than me ( lol) to put in the tedium, a long duration high res loop of this things life cycle is going to be gorgeous cinema - regardless of where/what happens from it. Look at this zygote cyclone near Cape Hatteras... https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Hatteras-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

It can happen though, too.. I mean that's what I was saying a while ago, all these solutions are plausible. It's not about impossibility. I recall a coastal monitoring effort not too many years ago... within the last five, where there was 'convective robbing' and most thought it was grid scale feed-back but it turned out to be the case that a conglomerate of convection erupted escaping the SE coast and we had to sit there and watch and say, 'well, guess it was real' I remember thinking it was a pretty damn fantastic model performance to initiate convection and use it to force the synoptic evolution - It doesn't mean that's the case for this thing. Situations are not the same. This really has just an off the hook 500 mb/ ml evolution potentiality and it's ability to force matters below is quite impressive. It's a matter of tuning in the guidance -

someone should initiate an obs/now-cast thread for this event. Like 200 pages isn't enough...I think we've beat the horse enough anyway

Was just talking to John ... we both agree the lacking/amorphously defined b-c axis likely causing the models like to Euro to " go out a find" anything it can to place a low. Usually some supercell out there in the ocean...etc. Not sure if that makes the NAM more believable, but it certainly a reasonable consideration.. the 32 km has a better deep layer integration ( I think this is true ) than the 3km, because it considers a larger volume of total domain space... When coupling that concept with a superior overall meshing, it may make this circumstance 'in its wheelhouse' so to speak. This is also what/why Dec 2009 was handled so well by the this model's ancestor version - it detected that b-c wall with pin point precision because it was like 20C across 10 lateral miles along a line between NJ and ACK that faithful day. Gee, where's the low going to rail along, right?

You know Brian ...I hate to say ( but secretly enjoy the opportunity ) but the NAM's (32 may be better, too - ironically) superior meshing may be able to "pick" a focal point for a low to "anchor" that latter aspect ( I just posted a popsicle headache that will surely scroll without many noticing) is causing the models et al ( I feel pretty strongly) to spray solution shit all over the wall on this thing.

I realize you're being sort of CT-centric here ( it's all good ...), but this looks fantastic for everyone really... particularly considering that this thing is just getting situated and will rage for another 9 hours after that... or more -

Which this next model series will suck, guaranteed ! There will be one model in the bunch that looks just about like a soulmate to the imaginations of the winter enthusiast, while all the others are varying degrees of angst and dither. The reason for this plaguing lack of consensus has become pretty clear - to me. This is for sake of discussion ... a perfect 500 mb evolution taking place over a hugely flawed low level environment. ...and by "flawed," we mean lacking a coherent baroclinic boundary/ ...thermodynamic intersection. It's rather amorphous, don't you think ? when there isn't a whole helluva lot of substantive difference between the sounding at BTV vs ACK. That circumstance is causing all kinds of problems with 'where to place' the low; that placement is necessary to more than less, "anchor" the total vertical vortex evolution. Without it, the models are quite figuratively if not literally ... spraying solutions by way of where ever the fractals of their complex physics happen to emerge a position in both space and time. This represents certain challenges to determinism for one, but a low will certainly develop out of the morass. It's likely that we are at modeling limit when faced with those challenges and will have to just wait and see... Or, perhaps they will all suddenly coalesce in the 18 ... 12, or 6 hour window

yup haha and all the guffaw ... but, the capitalism banter was under the auspices of "while we are waiting for the next model runs" - just sayn'

mmm ... this unfortunately may not really be true. Yes, it has "red hair" and it is certainly a clad colloquialism to consider it a "step child" to the U.S. suite of products ... But the Euro actually did better on the most recent snow event and total synoptic evolution despite the consistency of the GFS, during the lead to that particular event - That is unfortunately the most useful example for comparative scoring because truth be told ...this winter has featured a stark dearth of anything else.

While we're waiting on the next d-drip dose ( lol ...) ... ...I still find it interesting ( timing ) how the Euro corp recently relaxed a lot of their policies on free dissemination of a lot of their product suite, right around the time these performance issues began scratching heads. Thus, making the access less useful to the those seeing the free dissemination of said product suite. It comes off to me as marketing strategy because they know the GFS/GEFs technology, for all our varied criticisms has become competitive enough to loosen their testicle grip on a purchasing world requiring accuracy. That's my paranoid conspiracy theory ... ha. But it's the kind of move that's not atypical in capitalism warfare; they are stuck having to plan for the possibility down the road of their own obsolescence. That barb about 'scoring big in Scandinavia' ? sure... they're running the version that scores well, closer to populism for a "Euro-based products" and the users there will entrust in the cache of that familiarity ... So, they free up access to a lot of product suite in the off chance that the JV version of their product we are all getting will still be good enough for at least some market share ... and putting more of their eggs in better profit outlook closer to home when using that strategy. I just don't know why the free lunch. The moral of the old adage, 'there is no such thing as -' is really more like 'beware Romans bearing gifts' in this context.

People keep referring to this has having a 'high bust potential' Busting what, though? I don't know what they think will bust when every solution is on the table and almost equally plausible here. I think people have it sort of instilled in their deeper mentality that a big snow event not happening, must be a bust. But that's not really( in the philosophical sense) fair to pin that on models when they are all demonstrating pour continuity. If folks' expectations are high, and that is not fulfilled, pure logic would thus dictate in a situation such as this, that it is their expectation that is busting... IF that's what we mean by bust for a system that has vast spread and continuity problems, than sure - but ... we can certainly control our expectations? That's on us.

Spoke to him earlier … he’s in the camp that this will dynamically over power BL thermal fields and that models are likely underselling those physical resolutions in the lowest levels … not to be a dank, but he was actually agreeing with me – and I only say that really cause this whole situation is just starting to frustrate the shit out of me But it makes sense higher res tools are seeing it colder - we’re getting some colder looks as we get closer. It’s all a moot point however, if we can’t nail down where it’s actually going to be snowing for Christ sake

Exactly my point …. man if there were ever a nowcast requirement. Certainly questionable whether or not we’ve got “fore”cast for fuck sake.

Looks like the same amounts and everything just shifted north

Thanks … but it would help street cred if one if these fucking signals would actually delivery an event that’s not getting shirked fir shit reasons. Lol christ I got to say, I’m really still quite surprised that the models cannot see through to a consensus here we’re still jumping centers around… solitting the vortexes into pearled lows … all the while we have such an intensely subsuming northern stream 500 mb closure just perfectly climatological taking a cyclonic parabola underneath Long Island. Major wtf It just strikes me like the models are over souped up and it’s causing them to break, but I don’t know that’s just speculation. As much as I implore, people, do not lower guard because it does have such an immensely huge upside to it, which could catch people off guard… I also admit that something seems off

I'm not guaranteeing "cryopocalypse" I'm just trying to impress people not to lower the upper bounds on this thing - at all! It has the features that have in the past, snuck up and over performed. It's got the genetics for that kind of talent. We'll see how it plays?

The overwhelmingly powerful moving synoptic parts will obliterate the BL warming ... much more likely in a uniform result. Too much tech dive is obfuscating common sense - not just in here but in the general Met community. These subsuming N/stream fusion into diabatic inject S/streamers, become dynamic hammers ( in the maudlin turn of phrase). None of the interpolated snow products ...and ( I feel ) quite a bit of human interpretation, are not getting the big picture here of what this kind of event is capable of becoming. Hopefully the nit picking keeps it upper pedestrian/lower major like that... Heh. Just like no one guessed a tropospheric fold would strafe SE zones with sustained 'cane winds in 2005, or how 128/95 becomes a stranded parking lot on the eve of 1978 Feb 6 ... the upper bounders like to impose "wild card" severity. This one fits that ilk. I'm particularly concerned along a Willimantic CT to Bebford MA where for a time, thick caking/rhyme snow may then freeze while being struck with high winds into that snow loaded infrastructure. Otherwise, I'm not too concerned about the risk for heavy snow as singular metric. I've seen this town cut through 22" snow storm twice and I was able to hit the gym later the same afternoon ... Snow, alone, is not the same beast to civility it was 40 years ago. But, if the visibility is very low and the wind manages to gust in the interior and the temperature is 30 F ... this turns into a different animal. I don't buy the 18z NAM and other waffling as negation. It's roughly half way between the 12z and the oddly barren 00z run ...and is more a reflection of wobbling with the internal physics ( giga noise). It's too possible that a dangerous scenario unfolds to worry about that, as the players are not in question - unlike other events this year. They are pretty well accounted for. The GFS is largely dismissed

Vertically stacking ... temp crashes in the core, not as much because of jet intersection related lift outside the axis of rotation.

straw man ... People saw the 12z Euro and are smug. "see"

Well… Guys and gals we can’t keep upping the ante. At some point this thing is capped. We may edge up, but it’s more likely we’re going to get solutions here on out that are lower just because you’re at the ceiling with more room the other direction.

wait, I don't get the reference ?

d-drip OD ... my god hahahahahaha

#MeToo