Typhoon Tip

Here's a conspiracy theory ... ... notice how about 18 months ago... last year or so, the ECMWF org relaxed policy over their products quite a bit ... started allowing general access to viewing? This performance shit started raising eyebrows around then. Hmm Who here loves a good coincidence ?!

Even the JMA agrees with the GGEM/GFS... Don't know what use that serves pointing that out, but it is what it is. In fact, the GGEM 12z is almost indistinguishable from the 18z GFS ..and both their ensemble means are too close to quibble over. In all seriousness I'm not using the Euro for this system at all at this point in time. That may change if it heads-outta ass, but the guidance consensus is overwhelmingly doing what it should do at fuckum 4 days lead - agreeing! jesus christ. And we're fretting over these wayward pieces of rat pellet model runs like dreary omens and 'telling' ...oooh. Rant over... haha

Why am I analyzing what everyone already knows...

Also, the GFS is trended S with the wind max... now cutting more down the latitude of the L.I. sound, instead of central NE. If we can get that to come down to Jersy, we have a real CCB/comma head change. It's actually hinted on this 18z rendition

Heh... the TT cinema of the GFS never gets the tick line N of the Pike - that's the coldest I've seen this thing modeled. I'm also still fighting a sinking feeling over attenuation due to moving headlong into Tyson's fist. I'm convinced there has to be some... but, the GFS is ejecting a pretty big goodly bolt of momentum with this thing and so having more to conserve is serving the destiny well for us here. But I gotta say, with the same scaffolding in place, it can't back down or this event will go right with it in lockstep. Bank that! Consider us warned...

The whole hemisphere has been yawing back and forth like that about ever other or every 2nd other run. One interesting thing I've been noticing... whenever the core of that hornet sting is a little deeper/potent, it's always when the confluence is flatter and vice versa. interesting - it's like it's not allowed to be powerful with a confluence, only without it... heh. I almost wonder if the models are using the wave space of the hornet sting to "push" against the might of the NAO exertion entirely...it seems like it.

It's a blockbuster that'll get all fumbled around with and fucked up - right in my sweet window of the 12-13th... sort of an 1888 redux, only bigger than just SE NY/CT but not 50" either.... who's with me!

Heh ...you don't have to defend yourself. no one should read any post like, "so-and-so was a big improvement" or "so-and-so was a piece of shit," grab their keys and take off with an impression of the model run at hand. haha... I was really being sarcastic. You should always look for your self.

The wave spacing is decidedly different from B.C. to NF across that latitude of southern Canada. The Euro positions everything, including the confluence aspect(s), some 500 mile E of the GFS ( just comparing those two...) That difference is at convenience to either solution. The Euro allows the whole thing to end up in Michigan before it starts being forced E... The GFS differences don't allow that...and it ends up forced E sooner. The Euro is seems to be forcibly trying to invent reasons to drive the La Nina spring/-PNA along. One thing I'll point out regarding the Euro's recent history in a similar pattern - i.e., the one today... It had this 28th system originally one of the westward solutions early, and then collapsed it all the way to all but a southerly whiff at some point in the count-down. Not sure if that'll happen in this case ... The southern stream position handling is one thing, but I noticed that aspect difference along southern Canada and I stopped waiting for new hours even. F' it at that point. It may be right but it's wholesale different than a lot of other guidance now. EPS outta be interesting...

Couldn’t even get to the end of this one … Solid downgrading effort will forever be a demerit engraving on this event’s tombstone

Wait... Jerry says the UKMET is like the GFS/GGEM, in a context that suggested it wasn't that bad. Ineedsnow says it was crappy. this is why I cannot really take 'model analysis' in here as very useful sometimes I guess for starters, neither is really an "analysis" ha yeah...the Euro's doing something the other globals aren't. It repositions the whole southern stream wave signature farther W... Not hugely, but enough that the whole thing then just ends up west because of that.

This thread doesn't have a huge participation today do to the ongoing event out of window, but a handful of posters did do drive by neg-head, snipes ... based upon lesser likely indicators. It probably doesn't reflect the ballast of ideas on this system.

Man... if you're a spring/warm enthusiast, book a flight - that is if you can afford it. I'd plan an open ended vacation anywhere but N. of this approximate line,

Actually... the GGEM's 500 mb evolution would argue less of a SWFE, because the larger core wind torpedo goes S of LI on this run. It's a trend over the prior that is subtle -

30F 2.5"

Minnesota crunch ftw ... maybe? God...I hate that we have to depend upon an index that I hate, in order to get a storm that I am beginning to hate ( just from dealing with this bullshit..), at a time of year that I have been perfectly honest about in the past, I borderline hate.

Haha... has anyone noticed that nagging attempt at Norlan sort of IVT on the GFS runs. One thing I think is interesting about that phenomenon is that it's happened like ...3 times in history worth notoriety, yet has been modeled 3,000 times since the phenomenon was codified as a real thing. Or, maybe it happens a lot more frequently than we are aware? perhaps just below the radar of any impact so no one notices...

Heh... one thing I like about TT is the convenience to the fast comparison, "Prev. Run" button. Bravo on that. But, looking at hr 90 on this 12z run of the GFS, and clicking said button some 10 times... any differences are really almost irrelevant. If nothing else, that's some impressive continuity.

From orbit.. this is a SWFE ( I realize others have made that connection - all due street cred conferred) ... The deeper S/W mechanical totality goes W, while the lower troposphere cold undercutting prevents warm intrusion to the surface. That's SWFE realization incarnate. It just comes down to timing transitions. Some very intense cold lower blocking can make a SWFE be almost 90% or more snow, merely crusted over by some freezing drizzle. Like in some of those Dec events in 2008... Some others, less...you get 3" thumps followed by IP then cold rain, with a modest net gain of Plaster of Paris. You know...technically, SWFE can be all rain... It's really anytime cold forces occlusion whilst S/W mechanics run NW. But... we obviously don't give a ratz azz about those LOL The temperature actually rises post the occlusion frontal passage. You know the drill - Whether this system shows a more "cleanly" idealized SWFE, just those two primary leading parametric circumstances alone, make this a SWFE to me. S/W travels NW; low levels effectively succeed in preventing WAA to penetrate to the surface.

Honestly ... I would keep it to "...cooked as a moderate event here..." but I'm with you. semantics perhaps. I think this has a delimiting upside as time has gone by, because it's getting more coherent that it will be running up into a negative interference environment. This flavor of the NAO seems hostile. a- it's ..pretty much gotta attenuate some. My contention is really about the positioning in space and time out there by the 'nested' guidance types - whether that is even right. I lean no. Because the -NAO that's in retro behavior is directly counter to the the position the NAM is attempting to take this thing (ICON too - I've read about its weird 'hexagonal' framing grid ...no idea why-for or wtf, but it doesn't inspire trust when it's running performance, as far as I can tell, is about as structured as a dung beetles ball of Cape Buffalo shit, and perhaps only useful in that space). SO... my thoughts then run to why, and the best I surmise is the domain coverage - but we'll see. agreed with needing globals.

One thing those who are hiding their panic over the NAM ... ( ICON for that matter...) haha Seriously, they may be right, but it would be dumb luck. Those guidance' domain spaces do not include a large aspect of the NAO. As it is in retrograde across the N/Atl Basin leading this, during and afterward... it's influence may not be entirely detectable.

It's got a really strong core, too. It's feeding back - I suspect - because that aspect sends out a strong short wave ridge signal immediately leading, and that's really the other side of what your talking about. It may be causing the confluence to be very impressive. But, ...the question becomes two fold, one ... where then does this thing go after that? I mean it can't go N. It has to go E. It almost doesn't matter that it's where it is, at 84 hrs ... it may only delay the same result... once it is inevitably forced E. two ... who the the f*k cares about this model at that range? just sayn'

Extended NAM" haha isn't that like the DGEX ... R.I.P. ... I don't mean to sully the good name of a legend... for the storms that thing used to paint would inspire Homer -

Yeah, my old standard method has medium coherent signal for mid month for something bigger. Really the 11-15th ...too early to hone within that range, which may even blur an entry around the 9th+ The 06z GFS ...maaaaybe began suspicious hint with that deep vortex opening up S of NS out in that time range. Looking over the GEF individual members, about 1/2 have become more specifically intriguing (just the coarse membership provided at PSU -) as a cursory eval. But that is a nice hemispheric look, because the NAO is relaxing. As others have noted, there is a PNA rise going on. I'd like to see it actually go higher than the 0 SD axis/ Buffalo massacre variant. Race is on against the sun, in a La Nina hang over, in a CC that seems to express less with warm temperatures ...and more with accelerating away from cold behavior whenever it can ( weird)... but as is smeared in the guidance at this sort of range, there's enough cold in proximal to this mess.

No no no... The NAO has to be relaxing people. If you somehow metaphysically succeed in conjuring a -NAO elaphant over the western limb of the domain ... good luck sitting down, for as this recent soring of the butt demonstrates forcibly - what? you're forgetting ...like, while the butt is being sored? LOL. Okay - good luck.