Typhoon Tip

We'll see... I'd be happy for this outlook effort just to be consistently albeit modestly above normal. That's not really even subjectively 'furnace' but I suppose it's up to the user.. heh. Furnace is a heat wave now that we're into May. If the mid latitude telecons start to reflect this Pac dispersion shit than we might have the conversation. We also have to be leery of another a 'synoptic heat burst' ... which is different than a wholesale pattern change and can happen in somewhat isolation.

Here you go, Kev' Starting to see semblances of the western/tropical Pacific forcing. I've been discussing it for the past week while in wait of this type of model depiction. "Should" see more of this essence emerge. Former Pac forcing is a legit powerful observed factor, and I've been suspecting that it's just not yet ( to date) been very well sampled - therefore ... not ingesting into the initialization framework for the global guidance sources. But, we see now Phase 3--> 4 is occurring and I don't think this solution below is a merely coincidence. It is in fact, right on schedule. Like I said... the 2nd week of May - that's the way I'm still leaning for now. Which isn't that far away so.

we could carry that attitude every New England April/spring for that matter -

So this weekend looks like a top 20 ... maybe top 10. More so Sunday, but both days have a shot. 850s rise to +5 C and low RH at typical cloud heights (ie, mainly sun) in May no less ... will undoubtedly send realized 2-meter Ts above machine guidance. Near 70 Sat and in the 70s Sun. Light wind. Predicated on the notion that things don't change between now and then, of course.

Not the place for it ... but a quick comment on the Bruins. I frankly thought they were in trouble back whence they split the first 2 games at home to allow 1-1 going back south. mm... that didn't sit well with me. I lowered my expectations at that point in time. Admittedly ... there was optimistic when they got a 3-1 lead. But then I was summarily checked out, feeling as though the whole thing was just as predictable - we knew... as the 2004 ALCS debacle. Same exact sensation - we knew it was over when the Bruins lost game 5 ... Wasn't going to matter what the win/loss record was at the time. The rest was academic. So.. being psycho-babble prepared as I was, I wasn't terribly offended or even a little bit surprised by last night's destiny.

Yeah it's not me necessarily either. As in not my credit. I was reading this whole thing about how they create these ecological islands of starvation for a lot of species that are already in trouble because of climate change -related population destabilization. From flowering species to pollenating insects, flora and fauna. So I guess the new thing is rock gardens with flowering plant types interspersed ... The focus wasn't the fertilization chemistry so much, but fertilizer is a whole nother problem. Yup. The era of Roundup is basically archaic and actually just dumb in any generation. I suppose it all stands to reason. I mean when we peer over an untouched wilderness scape, we don't see that look for a reason. Diversity = health in the ecology.

Look at that 1980s standardized ecologically toxic lawn... lol - been reading about how bad those are for the environment. Interesting

They're probably just gnats ... Populous seemed to start referring to general gnat nuisance as black flies some 20 years ago and it's not always the case. There are a lot of black flies, too ... but there are bigger populations of different gnats. Those swarms that make little personally owned clouds that follow you around behind your head when your walking in spring and early summer are likely other gnat species. They like sometimes rattle around the orifice of your ear opening? Could be a black fly, but its just as likely harmless albeit annoying gnats. What I hate are those dear fly that do blood recons in dive bombing mobius loops

GGEM is 4 straight days of straight cool rain. Euro at least offers "parole" hearings. If the rain bomb Sunday overnight scoots along, we may dry slot Monday and find some mercy in there, but... the cold core - which may also be lagging behind seasonal forcing in the guidance some ... - then settles through for a butt- banged mid week. Thing is, that caveat about seasonal forcing...sometimes things settle out better with those deep mid level deals in May - not always though. Ha, how did they feel about that under 20" in 1976? Trick is knowing which way it'll correct. More often, the specter of it softens some as the mid range nears, however. We'll see. I frankly don't mind personally if we get 3 or 4" of water ... then pattern changes circa May 7-10. There are big signals that the latter may take place, that the general model systems may not yet be detecting.

It is... (bold), and it almost seems endemic to New England, too. I've experienced change from San Francisco to Chicago in my time, and that sort of coldest before it warms, and warmest before it cools happening almost at the seam of the change is more noticeable around this region of the continent. I think it has to do with barriers associated land-air interface. The cordillera west, holds cold till the last minute, and then the other way, once the gradient finally works down to the coastal plain, it actually strengths the mean WCB response. ...hypothesis... But no where else I've been is that behavior so well defined. I've seen a 52 F murk behind a strong BD in May actually find its way to a min of 49 F the morning the skies break and the warm front suddenly mixes through, and then it's 79 by 5pm, more times than I can to count.

I realize we have a 'sea ice -related' thread, but this isn't related to sea ice. It has to do with oceanic temperatures, in general... A fascinating user interface graphic: https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/ I'm sure for y'all that pick and probe through the web and research matters this is already known? either way. It's referenced in an article over at Phys.org, that also conveys some weirdness that seems prequel to alarm and criticality - but we'll see on the latter. https://phys.org/news/2023-04-earth-hot-sudden-ocean-spike.html

It’s April.

Watch in 2 weeks there'll be a ridge node approaching 600 non-hydrostats right where that asteroid crater is

It was the worst subjective 4th holiday sensible weather spanning all my time on Earth, period. Now … I’m hoping that just atones to rareness and not some new delicious peregrination of summers in a CC thing going forward …

I agree with y'all for the most part. But, I'd be willing to risk May ... maybe May 10 as my return date? 2005 is exceedingly rare... Hell, if we really had our druthers, we're rich enough not to waste time, and can set our return date based on telecons and model trends haha. But, usually, if it's ass bangin' after May 10, the summer's likely to screw anyway so may as well come back. Like what was the 4th of July weekend recently that was like 44 F ... for warm/summer enthusiasts, that's the winter of 2022-2023

Entirely actually ... heh. That's what it always is about, relative dissenting opinions being relatively offended... haha. But yeah, ... I've made no illusions about my own feelings with this particular season of the year. We have to understand ...there are in fact 5 seasons in New England: Summer, Autumn, Winter, Spring, and Rectal chamber. The latter of which happens to ballast along the April span of time..but can lapse either direction... And just like the other 4 seasons, Rectum can be more or less stinky depending on that year's rendition. We've had Rectums that are seamless to spring because they were almost tolerable. We've had other years, like May 2005 ...when Rectum proved that God himself is a shameless sociopathic sinner... This year...mm, I'd say so far it's on the lighter side of the spectrum of funk. It's not a bed of roses ( ever )...but at least we are not doing push-ups in dogshit. (I'm obviously joking around)... I work out everyday. I do a mix of machine work, running, then cycling, along a 3 day rotation and then start over. So I lied just there...I actually end up taking two days off a week for rest. It's 3 on by 1 off. The treadmill in the winter was really getting on my f'ing nerves! My lower back and hamstrings just refuse to take to it... despite one night a week doing yoga with a married hottie ( which has its own frustration..). These 59 F afternoons the last two weeks have been really quite ideal for doing 5 mi, which has been better on my hammies and back. I'd really rather the days be 82/48 utopia with hot chicks and stuff ... but all things being (typically) oddly unequal in our Mar-Mays, there's been some reasons to appreciate. It's got some redemption to it in other words? Weatherwiz, ...it won't take that deep into May - most likely.... Strong tropical forcing signal is emerging in all guidance sources and derivatives, and we've sans the La Nina firewall... So, the anticipation is that said forcing will in fact contribute to R-wave distribution. It is more likely that the operational models a merely not detecting that forcing just yet.

case closed...

Here you go Kevin... CPC's seeing it now too - ... • Atmospheric responses associated with the long-lived La Nina continue to wane, as the MJO is expected to be the dominant driver of tropical convective anomalies, and eventually provide an environment conducive for tropical cyclone (TC) development in the Indian Ocean and West Pacific later in May. • Extratropical linkages become less clear during boreal spring, however there is some support for Maritime Continent MJO events leading to increased mid-level heights and above-normal temperatures over the central and eastern U.S. during May

Pretty damn nice out for being embedded in April’s rectum …

Oh I've been trying to get PF rich with those land scape shots for years but ...nope - he just loves his provincial mountain dwellings too much I guess...

I was wondering if/when it would come around... The NAEF system has been selling more than the operational runs ...but the EPS/GEPs were more in line with the former. I don't think it will put us hugely over-budget into a 1987 or 2005 or 2010 .. but, might be able to see some creek side little legal ball parks under water. You know ...when green trash barrels and the playground swing set near by are half under,

Mm... the issue ( originally aroused for sarcastic humor) isn't art value. It was about when not being clear that what is being shown is intended for "art"; that could be a problem. Pointing out the obvious here: We don't know what is the 'organic' experience, then ... Which in fact means more in truth, as to the extent of what reality is. When someone titles and contents a Tweet without recognizing the exaggeration/doctoring due to technology, merely broadcasting their vantage point of the event, that is manipulative (i.e. can and usually ends up being, divisive ) You know.. op ed: we live a media soaked impression of what reality is, already. Which has turned that "could be a problem" above into a whopping IS. These fantastic Tweet phenomenon, regardless of aurora this ... or deep fake that... whatever, they are just microcosms of the same practice of the "Industrial Media Complex." Media makes money. The Tweeter gets their notoriety... Whatever the currency sought, aside ... it is disingenuous in either sense. The whole practice ( "really" haha) markets their "recreation" to the blind - so to speak ... - those whom ( and unfortunately, this appears to be proven > 50% of the populous) are initially less if not totally unprepared to objectively scrutinize what they are seeing/hearing... The commoner's don't have a chance. ha. I mean, the technology is beyond their scope of understanding, so the dazzling display is more akin to the first protohominid lifting a burning flame.

Well yeah... it is what is. Not to discredit one being able to see - or ridicule the significance of the event ( I was initially poking fun at the audience seekers out there that use technology... blah blah). I've driven I84 at night a few times, though... It seemed to me once 10 or so miles up the way heading out of Hartford, that sky up there gets pretty damn dark though. If "ambient light pollution" in this context means diffused artificial light, that would cloak ( ironic oxymoron -) the existence of smaller nooks that may offer some better viewing chances. sure. Man, I just wonder how a Carrington -scaled event would compete with the illumination grid of the planet. Well...heh, ultimately it would win of course. Because within an hour or two of onset, the grid sectors would start blinking off in chunks... but for a time, would you be able to see those unworldly spirits that seem like they could almost touch the tree tops in downtown NYC, or how 'bout "Lost" to Morality Vegas - that'd be the shits. You ever see those satellite/night displays of the landscape, and the artificial lights looking nerve cells replete with dendritic connections to nearby other nerve cells... digress

I did see an iPhone video taken outside of Fairbanks Alaska a month or so ago, ...when a sneaking CME that for some reason escaped the detection methods ... slammed the Earth out of nowhere ( or it may have been one of those "co-rotating" deals). The guy was moving the vantage of the phone's camera around an undulatory sky of light curtains while crowd oo's and ah's were audible in the background. He was offering some baser hick expletives of his own... That's in Alaska though. The last time I saw unaided aurora my self (mid latitudes) was way back in 1985 around 11pm in Rockport Mass, looking NNE from Long Beach. It was very low on the horizon and you had to stare for a while to see it or gain much impression of any irregular light pulsations... Prior to that, I saw it several times in Michigan growing up a young lad. Oh wait ...I forgot. I went back there for an autumn in 1990 and saw a pretty good display that was higher in the sky ... But, that looked nothing like these renderings we are seeing on social media so frequently nowadays. I suspect the ambient light pollution from PWM-ATL east of Appalachia also represents certain interference problems for ooing and aahing caliber displays, too.

Yeah, pretty low slugging percentage for the first month of this years 'summer batting' season...