Typhoon Tip

The event over t-giving is actually not hugely far from a kind of quasi or partial redux of last December. -3 SD SPV down to Superior with 510 hydrostats knifing underneath bears some at least vague resemblance

This is the type of event I was discussing earlier...

Yeah was just thinking about those NJ model low novies of the 80s. What was that all about. Maybe it was an ENSO thing.. like, back when ENSO was a real influence *bahahahaha that oughta piss some off

I guess in the poster's defense, he/she did say 'off-topic' I guess you get what you get

yeah, I wasn't trying for gospel on that 'when' aspect there - more so that it was aft of now and moving forward. If I cared enough I would have looked closer at the data. I just tend to refer to the coarse SST anomaly product at CPC, which if looping the 3 months, it seemed per glance like the warm "max" was in early September. Upon another look ... it seems the Nino 3 and 1/2 were warmest in Sept ( according to that product), and since perhaps switched with 4 and 3.4 Obviously there's MEI's and ONI's and HIV's and HPV' and all other kinds of illnesses associated with this pepperRONI pizza index

And there it is ...about a month ago I wrote, 'I wonder when the posts start arriving about how this El Nino had already peaked' congratulations! you came in first place. We'll see, but it seems the Aug/September window was at minimum a local peak; we'll see if becomes the peak.

As much as a covet my winters ( and really ... am heavily biased in wanting them to be early performers) when this happens and we pop 64 I wonder It's so like euphoric out there.

I've been there before... The food was good. We had booked it out for a work thing so there was 20 or so of us.

As an afterthought ... I also still wonder a bit about the 'looming moon rising over the model horizon' with regard to how much of the N/stream is really forced to dive and close off over the Lakes. That would matter because less of that may allow the nuanced stretching aspect to play out more so. interesting

Per that solution, it was a front end changing to IP and ending as cold mist/-R As others have pointed out, its an outlier - both wrt its ensemble members, and cross guidance in that regard. As I went over yesterday morning, amplitude is favored during the week with the larger hemispheric modal changes taking place. Where? Unfortunately, west is best given climo. That's strike 2. However, that synoptic cinema next week has an oddity about it. The typical spatial changes (with respect to time) are taking place at an accelerated rate over climatology. You can see the -EPO surge... the subsequent +PNA relay --> +d(PNAP) tends to take something like 3 to 5 days. This is doing so in a 2 day window. Not sure what it means for pinning down where features will be, but ... the quicker translation of large features in the guidance ( and they're all doing it) should tell us that despite the present consensus, sou'easter- like solutions, stressing climo/stretching may be idiosyncratic - sometimes that shit happens, too. I'd put it in low probability and go with W for now. Cold entry probably on that - regardless. Just a matter of how long in that phase of it. 'Sides, if it snows at all its a relative win/stand out for most so there's the interpretation game, too. The period after that is a better fit for rolling up a new risk underneath a ( by then) cold loaded continent above the 40th. Other aspects more appealing out in that range, the SPV anomaly loosens its grip and allows the flow to amplify the 'up under' regions, while the air mass is still conditionally cold enough for cryo

582 but sure.

Spoke about that gradient aspect this morning. -EPOs tend to result in shearing/destructive interference early in seasons. Yup The only trouble is … it’s been an increasingly more evidenced deeper into winter cores, too HC expansion … trading the northern HC boundary for increased velocity is how the HC converts to mechanical power in the flow.

Yeah, we got that two nights ago with that 18 spot we put up -

Yeah ..it's not a bad guess, either. I tend to lean more on the calm nature to the winds this autumn. Frost is usually DPs near freezing to begin with, and then radiating to where the cold squeezes out the DP into frost. But who knows if soil moisture is contributing somehow -sure Either way, I've also noticed we haven't really had a synoptic wind event ... of any echelon, really. Whether just a gusty day at NE regional scales, Advisory/headline or not. The wind seems to not be blowing .. interesting. But, low wind brings marginal radiator nights into higher proficiency, and then the temp settles off to the DP and viola. Last year might have been more wind, and higher DPs at night. Not sure. Brian seems to have a records to that detail - I think the climate sheets at NWS Boston might help but they only have 4 sites.

Classic telecon technique says to watch that Nov 22-23rd for more amplitude, but there are flow idiosyncrasies acting as impediments. Namely ...to much speed in the flow, as has been a recurring theme in the model runs, is causing timing problems with phasing, as well some S/W momentum absorbing. The end result, it's tending to shear the wave interaction space from working it out. The GFS in particular seems to be oscillating between overcoming these limitations on one run, then subsequently the next run slips back. The 00z GFS to 06z GFS differences show that in the 500 mb evolution. 00z phasing about as much as it can given the screaming ripper pattern. But the 06z gives up and just bipasses. The Euro's rendition is bit more pallid overall, anyway ... It appears it has less potency in the S/stream ejected down stream. In both solutions, the western ridge isn't reconnecting into higher latitudes post the N and S/streams passing E. This tends to also limit the stream interaction in lieu of longitudinal wave morphology ( stretching W to E) Meanwhile the N/stream down stream of an -EPO cold inject ( see the GGEM 850 mb!), is winding up into a very deep early season SPV. Some of all this may be correctable due to this 'model magnifying' aspect - personal observation of model behavior they all share, which is to just be overly amplified with most of what they are handling in the range beyond D6's ...then they become less as they cross into the middle range. Less SPV depth may actually allow more N-S to evolve and a cleaner phase - suppositional... But the upstream ridge would need to climb in latitude aft of these features coming east: less SPV anomaly; more ridge west. The baseline has a + d(PNA) taking place down wind in space and time of a -EPO regime onset: so long as that remains the case, the period of the 19th - 25th should be monitored for more amplitude.

One aspect I've noticed since it turned colder in the first week of the month that's been different than the last ... several years really. There's been more of these clear, calm hoar frost mornings. We've got it on the roof tops even. But thick in the fields, and some clinging to low shrubbery, with low angle corpuscular rays of the sun slicing through - it's been very aesthetic. Anyway, the couple years prior, it seems we may have taken on too much wind when it got cold (perhaps). This year seeing actual frost's return, and lots of it, on repeating mornings is interesting.

Y’all can be rest assured you’re getting something that week because I’m traveling ..

I'm hoping for friggy Dec with snow bombs through Jan 15 ...then a never ending thaw that's seamless into an early spring just to stuff crow down the throats of all this El Nino bologna

GEFS really have a spectacularly low AAM flow structure. I mean if that's all there was you'd be convinced of a major somewhere along or east of 90W

It's not so easy to tell what phase space that Saturday cyclone occupies. I guess "hybrid" really works the best but it seems like a Miller A with a convective feedback low - it just happens to be collocated with where the low should be anyway. weird

This is fun eye-candy the following week

I rather like the 12z GFS oper. trend re TG week... That latter event is very near to being serious phase contender. As far as cold and getting snow ... we've had some snows in Oct and Novs since 2000, enough so that people might be conditioned to think it's not hard and we're somehow getting screwed if it doesn't work out. Or not - But from my chair I'm not 'looking forward' to jack shit prior to about Dec 10 (give or take) for N of the NYC just the same.

Does anyone have a source/free on the web that gives the weekly IOD... even bi-monthly?

I've been monitoring that myself - the Asian forcing.. I think the idea in the late mids and ext ranges wrt to the operational version(s) is related to that. Namely, we keep seeing the southern streams getting left behind by a progressive/strengthening N/stream across the N arc of the Pac and downstream across Canada. The Asian stuff appears to be overwhelming the popular ideas surrounding an ' El Nino' autumn ( this is not a warm ENSO forcing pattern!) It short, N/stream dominant pattern is emerging in the guidance tenor. I noticed ( case in point) the overnight runs actually went so far as to destructively interfere with cyclogenesis fields in lieu of this dominating N/stream complexion/ windy fropas with knuckle aching flow over the mid and high lat continent. There's still stuff going on... but if folks are in this engagement for following fun/substantive events, we really don't want a gradient rich compressed monster N/stream with a -3 standard deviation SPVs rollin' over James Bay, either. The upshot is that "mids and ext ranges" aspect means this can correct, and probably in practical terms ... having cold available in a CC raging boner world may not be a bad thing from this range, anyway. ( Lol). I mean, as we get closer ... I could see these very deep SPVs shallowing some ( de magnification' ) which would transitively encourage more southern stream to run dynamics up underneath.