Typhoon Tip

Excuse the pun, but I agree 100 % with the bold statement. It's not even just anecdotal. The increasing humidity and rain rates in the MA and coastal New England has already been papered. I'd like to say "talking way off in the future," but given recent accelerations - that can launch a separate debate. But... I almost wonder if a Jurassic climate return would be more sub-tropical ... I don't know about tropical ferns per se... but already, have any of you actually taken a walk through the woods in mid summers as of late. I've noticed them dripping ... rain forest style, when the adjacent field is 88/76 under baking sun - in itself getting harder to believe that DP elevation is just garden DP phenomenon. This is a "more and more" type aspect - not every time. But there are subtle, creeping changes if people pay attention. It seems that could be a natural transition with increasing S-SE, as oppose to the S-SW flow types in summers. That is already been papered - the Bermuda high repositioning farther N is causing wetter inflow tendencies into the Mid Atlantic.

I think where Ray was focusing his comment though, was in the facet of needing 'direct cold source'/feed mechanics as an increasing sort prerequisite ... "marginal" events are rarefying. I too have surmised as much in the past. I used to whimsy refer to that as our "flop direction" used to be on the cold side of fence events. Our region seemed to sneak cross a threshold over the last 15 years, an innocuous one, where now we're more cat paws and liquid. etc etc. But from his perspective, if there is a direct cold feed taking place, it tends to be a hygroscopic sink - and he ends up with a moisture deficit that by circumstance happens to consumes fall-rates more so over SE NH into NE MA. That makes just as much plausible sense to me as what you are suggesting - which yeah...I could see warm modulation from the E on average tending to move west, too. But then we'd have to look at CF versus less obvious CF events, versus the former. It'd be complex and nuanced; there could concurrency going on, too.

I liked the 'effort' Thinking like, " Meteorological + climatological)/2 " is a virtue in attempted reasoning - there's a lot more merit in that approach than knee jerk dismissal of climate changing being involved ... in any of this shit for that matter. I grow just as tired of auto-reliance on the mantra that because climate is longer term averages, it cannot describe the discrete event profile. First of all.... that logically can be argued against. For example, if the climate is getting warmer.... that means that all the discrete events that are in the means have in fact been getting warmer. At some point, the mean is a representation of that. People are confusing the rightful idea of not using climate to predict a singular event, with it meaning that the singular event's results were not relatable. That dubiously smacks as a rationalization, no different than any other bargaining/denial psycho-babble that happens when someone is faced with a truth they cannot tolerate -

That is something, huh -

Didn't this happen last year on that similar date ?

No window on the 12z GGEM - fwiw... But, all chiding and popular bs aside, that is the most climate sounds solution I've frankly seen re that attempted warm thrust.

It appeared to be the most aggressive ... but in all cases, that's unsual to see a 1035 mb polar high slipping E while N of Maine, with a warm front blithely making it all the way to the MA/NH border. I guess ...

mm... I don't know if I'd draft that out as being distinctly his 'prison term' ... Having suffered the vicissitudes of New England's colder than everywhere else whenever the pattern tries to run warm over the decades, I'm inclined to say that we're on the same turf - maybe another end of the field, but definitely a similar circumstantial earth. We are all guarded within the same circumstance. Put it this way... if he were a lifer, we're on a 30 year stint.

Oh yeah ...that's the other thing. Because of New England's unique gaped butt hole exposure to any possibility imaginable to sink cold into the cleft east of the western New England bum cheek ... we can't even (at least) enjoy the warmth of the impending climate holocaust. Because Antarctic will have completely decapitated all ice and tropical flora will start growing ... New England will be wedged with 38 F with fog and mist.

I'm hoping this happens ooa Feb 20 ... because we will by then be soaking in post solar minimum heating, climate momentum..., during a pre-CC holocaust either no one believes is real ( or simply can't get their heads around) ...but are either way unknowing racing toward, after the last 8 years have featured half of them with an episode of 70 to 80 F that unbelievably early, and ... short version? we 80 in Feb again. Having it happen during a presupposed El Nino February? that is also an ancillary tastiness. LOL

The idea as I said it, is that the present 850 mb layouts from those same means, for the 29th, is warm - but might "correct" in future guidance. It was an implicit suggestion relating to model behavior/biases at this range... But yes ... in a 101 synoptic sense of it, a western N/A ridge is a cooler flow over the eastern N/A region. But here's thing ... this kind of gets into other facets but, the warmth seems to dominate very quickly when the cold sourcing pulls out - that's a change over earlier generation. Hint hint. heh When the spigot turns off in the form of the N/stream going flat across higher latitudes, there seems to be an "acceleration" where cold air moderates faster than it used to years and years ago. Like I said, it gets into another discussion... but reiterating, ' it seems mid latitudes have a tougher time being winter, in winter, when there isn't a direct feed of arctic air as a static delivery .' To exaggerate for point, it's either 15 to 20 F, or 45 ... The system we had that gave the 6 to 15" regionally a couple weeks ago - that's getting increasingly rarer. 31 F unperturbed snow storms. Anyway, the current projected +PNA is occurring without an antecedent cold source. Perhaps owing to the above idea, it's like a favorable flow structure that is warmer than climo suggests it should be.

Scanning the ensemble source/means over night, there's still a signal for the end of the month that is on the robuster side of the climate. The time range still beyond 200 hours. The 28th system appears to be fading? No qualms from me. The index method likes that one less ( but not zero ) than leaning toward the 30th. What is interesting, it is as though both the EPS and GEFs are sans the 28th and 30th in lieu of "merging" or emerging at all, on to the 29th mid way between. That's kind of cool ... for determinstic nerds lol. These are 18z on the 29th: If this continues to emerge ...there'll be problems with cold air availability though, too. I'm willing to lean that some of the 850 mb positive anomalies normalize ( but not all), as the larger synoptic signal begins to back the deep layer flow NW over Canada -

January thaw time ?

… But, theses things can be anomalous onto themselves as well; they don’t have to behave exactly the way the textbook says so. Just sayn’

Look at the ridge near 200 hours plus out there over the Rockies. It’s huge and suddenly growing in that time range and that is after the storm on the 27/28th is over and gone. That doesn’t make any sense in the canonical relay of the mass fields. The ridge starts to go on the heels of the storm and they are temporally coupled - it looks to me like the 28th system should be attenuating and that bundle of mechanics diving through the lakes you see at 222 hrs should be the real one we should be tracking.

Yeah, like I said… I wouldn’t get too swept away with this run. I mean some sort of event may happen, but there are some arguments against it being such a massive scenario like that depiction tonight.

A big continuity shifts over Southern Canada/eastern Canada with regard to those pressure fields so don’t get too swept away in this run

The funny thing is is the better support is actually the ladder system between the 30th and the 1st, but we may end up getting two systems out of that stretch too which is perfectly valid

It’s impressive how it repositioned that 1040 high from north of Lake superior all the way over to north of Maine at 180 hours if that happens like that that’s not gonna end up being about a 15 to 20 inch snowstorm

GFS coming in with the 28th

High was 19 ... not bad, keeping the high below 20

That run has nothing for 10 days basically ... not sure I by the quiescence given the huge mode changes -

10 this morning .. all the way up to 16 so far. Looks like today is bottom day for this pattern cycle. Looking at Tuesday night ... the thing is, yeah the +PP fades away E and leaves our extended region exposed. However, the gradient in that backside environment spreads out. = The winds and warm advection are weak. That leaves a rotted polar air in place, still conditionally set up with some drier air and evaporation cooling potential ..and some other feed-backs. But that doesn't matter anyway. Because as soon as the new +PP tumbles over and around the NNE cordilleras ... that cold tuck jet is going to exceed whatever any and all guidance currently depict of it - guaranteed. Unless this recent generation of modeling technology can prove otherwise, the handling of any 925 mb "tuck" jet until 24 hours ahead is still suspect in my mind. That said... as this is just coming into the meso range... noticing not very much QPF. Yeah, the mid range GFS may have been overselling that aspect from whence this was a 2 or 3 days ago. What's new? - model attenuation when nearing a period of interest. I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up being just light smear of snow N, and snow to IP and very light freezing ... never exceeding either low-end advisory, or just a 'specials' statement requirement. I had neglected to modulate my own thinking the other day, around the charlie browning model take away phenomenon. The set up is there in principle, however ... So it's possible there could still result more actual weight falling. I'm just annoyed by the attenuation aspect - we don't know how much is going to be taxed when moving a scenario from D7 to D3 (say..), but some amount of tariff appears to always happen as the distant range attempts to import the goods through the mid range docks. As far as that goes... that system the 00z and 06z operational GFS has programmed for the 27/28th smacks as a huge candidate for reduction of value. I'm beginning to recognize some nuances in the behavior of the 500 mb that may lend to deterministic understanding as to why that happens... This system is a nice test. The 30th appears anchored in a planetary timing.

We should pool resources and buy a group rate flight ticket for Torch Tiger and that q omega dude out to Frisco or L.A. in that pattern - give it to them as a show of appreciation for all their bravery in enduring a New England winter - hahaha

- the most recent GFS happens to be the most impressive and seemingly realized of said indexing. I wouldn't be shocked if we see bigger solutions in terms of cyclone size and power at some point for that 30th thing... But ... being 'not being shocked' isn't a forecast - just sayn'.