Typhoon Tip

So this is interesting... the operational GFS led the GEFS ...which are now apparently leading the GEPs. Actually just getting sick of discussing it ... but, there is very little pattern change at this point in these guidance source. about ...3 to maybe 4 days of +PNA that matches typology, then it all morphs into something so exotically perturbed that it's not really certain +PNA has much identity there. weird. that's like the coup of all coups ...One model's oddly aberrant solution at a planetary scale, leads all ens means. wow. I mean... that's not like having a different solution with a storm system - it was the whole hemisphere we'll see

Hard to say what's going on in any/all guidance actually... There are arguments for and against any given solution, just about split evenly - making it difficult to associate a "correction vector" The problem with a strong change in the PNA mode is that a +PNA can support both a Lakes cut and a coastal proper scenario(s). It comes down to particulars with the whether the PNA is west or easterly biased... We've seen +PNAs with storms too far S-E too.

It's semantics ... "suppression" of storm genesis is occurring in the Euro because of circumstances related to wave-space contention which results in a general pan-dimensional negative interference scheme between the 11th and 14th... Here, I'll show you: Contrasting ... the 00Z GGEM wonderfully illustrates how a stronger ridge evolution in the west, and perhaps just different overall logistical handling of the wave spaces ( not saying better or worse here - ), lends to a more cohesive singular operating wave space that goes on to produce a much more successful H.A. type index mode-change event... This GGEM results a strong NE storm ... aspects related to ptype and whether people "like" the solution, notwithstanding... But the purpose is to elucidate the causal difference in why the Euro isn't manifesting a real system. If you take the frame further above and cinema that out in time, you can see the attending sfc features/evolution do nothing ... like at all. The Euro is achieving some exotically high proficiency in cyclone "suppression" ... but not in the same context and circumstances of having too much compression of heights and all that jazz...

No kidding… I was talking to John about this. I’m not so sure anymore because of a few reasons … too long/complicated to wanna bother. …that said, I would use the ensemble mean at this range

Seems like people are getting context fatigue when it comes to this winter. Fwiw the ensembles show that the operation version is an excessive outlier wrt the 13th

yeah yeah, but it's been doing it on every cycle way more so than usual deviation

The run is completely diverged from its own ensemble mean in the extended ... it's been tending to diverge, but this is a full on coma -

You should be Trump's press campaign manager

It's been dimming though

The 13th system appears legit/in the pipeline regardless ... It's a matter of whether it benefits from the pattern modulation going on while it is transmitting through. 00z Euro jumped on board going from almost nothing identifiable, right to a long duration commitment to S of L.I. transit... when it also appeared to be abruptly faster and more coherent in pulsing the +d(PNA) forcing across the continent. Other than minor differences aloft, continuing that theme in the 12z. The GFS has had the system for 3 days actually. But doesn't appear to have much +PNA ... going against its own ens mean. The GGEM also has at least a paltry version... All three operational runs have that space in time now reserved for something ... Which given the overwhelming erstwhile super-synoptic weighting (tele's and ens mean layouts), firing up a thread is higher confidence (relative to this range). The lower amplitude versions are less supported by the vast array of indicators. Here's the thing. The Euro is leading the GGEM and GEFs by moving it's mass fields toward the +d(PNA). It's version of 13th is acting much more like an H.A. event, with the flow plumbing along 100 W aft of the cyclone - it seems to be an index mode change entrance event. The other two models act as though they don't know where to take the pattern. Kind of wierd, but they look nondescript. The GFS solution out there in time doesn't represent a +2 SD PNA/ -d(EPO) very much at all ... In fact, it doesn't look like anything. But the lack of modality doesn't help deepen the 13th like the Euro does ...so it ends up more middling and needle threading.

Yup. It's all been a pretty textbook layout in the teleconnector projections going back a week or more actually.. . Over the time, the ens mean of all three majors began materializing what that should actually like at hemispheric scales, and considering at the time we were looking at 2 and 3 week outlooks ... the coherence was impressive.

12z Euro impressive

It was something I mentioned ( in snark) a couple hours ago because I noticed the 00Z GEPs mean getting aggressive with this look ... Having said that ...it's really kind of silly to angst. That chart is 360+ hours ... The 12z seemed to ease off slightly, and the EPS and GEFs were not as excessive anyway. The other thing is .. when has any time range beyond 240 hours ever been a lock on an NAO mode?

You can keep the -NAO ... ... GEP's idea on that would be a storm destructive/compression hell.

Solid support group dynamic going this morning LOL

I actually think this has legs - it's inCREdibly highly correlated right now in the numerical telecon projections, and the bulk ens layouts, en masse, make it almost physically impossible for just about anything to NOT happen when using the method/approach, too. Something's gonna take place. Could be a procession of events. Could be one or two more significant scenarios. I suspect that hyper bomb thing in the prior run would have trouble being an impact here ( more so up the coast toward the lower Maritime, sure -), because well prior to the pieces of that coming together ... heights over Florida and adjacency are too high ... the geostrophic basal wind velocities humming along > 50 kts ...That means the flows already compressed and that doesn't favor the meridian position of a deepening trough - that's why the model simultaneously closes off a multi-contoured 500 mb surface while moving it off to the NE so quickly.. .Usually, that kind of deepening in the mid troposphere slows down - in this sense ... it can't do that. This is what doomed the M/A forecast for the March 2001 "super massive black hole quasar extra double top secret hyper bomb" ... The models waited until the most possible Met careers were on the line to then correct for that compression/velocity in the flow and foisted the total scaffolding to higher latitudes. Anyway, the 06z is a better solution for the above predicament ... **BUT** ... this is speaking relative to this recent series of run particulars. These aspects could certainly modulate.

The modeled synoptics are acting like it is late March during the next week. Very spring like ... The 850 mb handling with that attempt at wet snow in the operational 06z GFS in a week is perfect example of what typically happens in spring. We could be 60 F, but since DPs are low and the hydrostats not particularly warm ... as soon as the sun disappears behind overrunning cloud density and saturation commences, temps crash and it's wet snow ...even if cat paws and bouncing pellets..etc... April 1 1997 ... it was 66 F at 1pm at UML's weather station. Two days later ... 18" of blue glory with 30" in Sudbury. That sort whiplash happens in spring, in our climate. Nape balm days --> snow... I've actually seen 50 F sleet pellets bouncing off car tops before, because the air was so dry that when a warm front first approached and spread light rain fall, it dumps it into hygroscopic well - the particulates thermally shock by latent heat of evaporation. It can actually be geek-fascinating, too. I recall an April day back in the late 1990s when it was 48F with light rain and IP bouncing, and while that was happening ... the sky was brightening from the SW. The precip end/moved away and sharp clearing line move in, and for 3 hours unabated solar blaze sent it to 65 F... Anyway... cheer on the spring preview. It'll be slow through Tuesday morning but as soon as this west Atl/Maritime trough breaks down, we dry air nape balm about 40 days ahead of climo

It's highly unlikely to go 0-for in that look. The other aspect ... due to the climate signal relationship with elevating global PWATs being a constant integral problem to all synoptic manifolds in real f'ing undeniable, incontrovertible time ... trying to ask New England ( of all places and climate ) to go 2 weeks in a wildly amplifying +PNA, is tantamount to not having a great deal of talent in the field of deterministic meteorology - that's the long way of saying dumb.

Nah ... might be some hints of that appeal, but the real deal is this next Friday and Saturday. Well, depending which guidance one chooses. The blend of the Euro and GGEM? Ho man. I don't care what the 2-m layouts depict, if that synopsis pans out under Feb 9 full sun, it will be in the low to mid 60s.

Maybe you have S.A.D. latency lol. Actually, I was kind of liking the cloudy days. It was still air and cold enough underneath that the ground coverage persisted. For a shit winter ...we've actually managed to count up some "snow on the ground days" - it's just not been very deep.

I realize there's close to 300 pages on the matter out in the main WNC forum ...but I'm willing to hunch that is transient. There was a pretty significant WWB over the past 2 to 3 weeks in association with a rare feat: an MJO that actually coupled ... But, those come and go and as the curve shows, there are many intra-seasonal variances that can be triggered by short duration wind related stressing patterns. If using the same metrical supposition - we'll see what the MJO desk/CPC thinks about it Monday or Tuesday. But anyway, it may not represent a real longer term push

No but heh. I seriously just read that. … it’ll be an interesting challenge for this mid month

So it’s been 707 days since Logan saw 4” of snow in 24 hrs?

EPS sees the 12th/13th

same requirement ... I'm not seeing a downward propagation of a thermal mass field in any of the prognostics. That may materialize to be the case - okay. But until it does... it's just another warm burst(s) that fades at altitude.