Typhoon Tip

Ha, I think you mean "lack" there of -

Agreed… Models are just having trouble identifying a specific feature yet 13th still in play but yeah it’s all mutable

I think the problem is money. Humanity ( ... by this we mean 'developed world' that has 'bought' into the economics as a social fabric ) has found enough stability within the Industrial Revolution/bubble, that it is able to assign economic value to everything. Literally... not just figuratively, just about every breath that is taken is somehow being incentivized around profit. We create this thing that should be a natural wonder ( really! ) called the internet - when has that happened in Earth's history. A means for 8 billion nodes of [ paradoxically dimming ...] intellect to plug into what's is almost analogical to a "planetary brain" It may not be the trillions of dendritic connections (yet), when comparing to a biological brain, but wait that out. We'll see what happens when the "genius" of AI - eh hm - comes to some future nexus with Quantum Computing ... digress. The Internet's usefulness has been reducing. At this point along it's tech evolution, you cannot even formulate simple inquiries because if "time is money" in a system that is entirely incentivizing surrounding the goal of acquiring it ... you have to wade through minutes in countless sponsored agenda ...sending you down a consuming rabbit hole - and their clever about it all, too. They make you think you're getting your question answered, ...until you end up in a "concept cul-de-sac," the only way out of ... you almost have to re-install the fucking OS of your access terminal. It's like a bate and switch system lock.. Oh, you can directly access the answer to your question with money, buuut the membership requires you give them all this contact info so that you can become mercilessly harangued until you buy more information... and on and on... Ask a simple question. It's gross and it's a detriment to progress... and all that possible feed back that can be so advantaged at a species' evolutionary level is tragically redirected someplace else for the acquisition of wealth instead. The internet tainting by economics is just one example. News media et al, regardless of medium of delivery ... incentivizes surrounding profit motifs. Reality itself seems to be unavailable without paying for it. This is why no one trusts anything - and it all started with the stability of the "Industrial Bubble" ..inside of which economics can flourish without any other goal needed There's an extinction event going on, alright.. it's in virtuosity.

I have a funny feeling ...when all is said and done and this GW/CC "slow moving apocalypse" thing has finally gone on long enough to send our world into a Mad Maxian dystopia of scant populations of barbarianism ( "civility" only happens in the provisional reality -) ... the reality along the path to that destination will have managed to never place one of those "GW storms" 10 MI S of ACK Island. LOL

I saw - hahaha. I think you beat me to it because as usual I couldn't end a sentence in time. LOL same page ... Even if some of that is tinted humor, there's always some truth to what's funny.

I guess in simple terms, if it is happening like 1::30 ... all the time, world over, it is not happening 1::500 then, right? duh. Too much reliance on past climate. People seem to intellectualize the changing climate, but then fail to allow the climate to change. Who and how says " 1::500" - what's that based upon, the past climate? ( enter buzzer sound). it's fascinating ...

OH, it'll get "attributed" - that smacks as a PWAT anomaly relative to thermal profile thing, big time .. and the possibility of that happening without that "goosing" is probably a 1::500? Which would be fine, but that doesn't intuitively fit the odds when considering that we are getting these weird localized snow results ... and heat results, and wind results... rain to 'canes ... pick a metric, too frequently world over to fit under the 1 in a 500 probability curve.

And... with the +d(PNA) being in progress while this system ejects eastward across the continent, there some suggestion for correction vectoring there. Frankly, the operational runs have not been very representative up to this point. They're routinely on the feeble side of +PNA expression - comparing that which has been and remains an impressive teleconnection. I've been waiting for that the other shoe to fall on that - **however** it also occurs to me that the flow is attempting to split near the Aleutians; that changes the map a little. With the -EPO block getting going, it is instantiating a high polar delivery/jet moving NW-SE over western/central Canada, while the southern branch runs underneath and careens California with a River. None of this precludes our getting winter weather - in fact, ...there's more arguments in favor of that happening. The 850 mb anomaly distribution in a 'super ens mean' has negative spread from the NP-Lakes-NE from ~ 11th to the end of the run ... the canonical result down stream of said -EPO. That's a pretty definitive cold north, over warm south type of loading across 40 N and should be considered precarious and higher volatility. But as far as the 13th, it's sort of being stranded because that type of +PNA .. not really ideal for getting a large positive interference. Can't just apply a +PNA and assume in this sense... It can change though - so far it's been an idiosyncratically limiting. Beyond that though... we either waste said volatility, or new features emerge given time.

Yeah but we have to think of those differences from the perspective of deltas ( changes ) along processing.The N/stream may be attempting to initiate a phased solution - just that the mean at that time of the run is a snapshot en route to a destination. It's a possibility that cannot be rule out at this range/circumstances.

Pretty solid move in the GEFs, as well... Notice the deep solutions are within the spread cluster over the NW arc... That's prooobaby an suggestion that there are more proficiently phased solutions; an N/stream grab favors that region of the cyclone envelope.

Continuity is very poor ... this GFS run bears only semblance to prior solutons. It's back to somewhat more convincing +PNA, but also is stretching the field in the W-E coordinate. That situation with that thing on the 13th ( relative to this run...) nary misses probably an otherwise massive event. N/Stream tries to subsume, but the S/Stream is outpacing due to that W--> E bias above.... Watching future guidance. The teleconnectors continue to flag impressive +PNA modality ...despite these distracting spatial layouts that try to go against. By the way, I realize some of you don't have faith in this system, but as far as I can tell, this is your index driven event. It's poorly handled up to this point, which likely wouldn't help its case. And, it is possible a middling system results...all that, but this particular system - I would guess - has the greatest up-side than any this year to date. So we'll see what the future guidance does. I will say though that the longevity of the +PNA comes into question, regardless.

guys... ".3 to maybe 4 days of +PNA that matches typology, then it all morphs into something so exotically perturbed that it's not really certain +PNA has much identity there." does not = no changes

oh, it's still changing - it's a matter of to what. these guidances sources are saying the previous notion of a strong and stout +PNA is in trouble - those being the GEFs system and the GEPs. it is unclear what takes place "if" the stouter version goes to squat

So this is interesting... the operational GFS led the GEFS ...which are now apparently leading the GEPs. Actually just getting sick of discussing it ... but, there is very little pattern change at this point in these guidance source. about ...3 to maybe 4 days of +PNA that matches typology, then it all morphs into something so exotically perturbed that it's not really certain +PNA has much identity there. weird. that's like the coup of all coups ...One model's oddly aberrant solution at a planetary scale, leads all ens means. wow. I mean... that's not like having a different solution with a storm system - it was the whole hemisphere we'll see

Hard to say what's going on in any/all guidance actually... There are arguments for and against any given solution, just about split evenly - making it difficult to associate a "correction vector" The problem with a strong change in the PNA mode is that a +PNA can support both a Lakes cut and a coastal proper scenario(s). It comes down to particulars with the whether the PNA is west or easterly biased... We've seen +PNAs with storms too far S-E too.

It's semantics ... "suppression" of storm genesis is occurring in the Euro because of circumstances related to wave-space contention which results in a general pan-dimensional negative interference scheme between the 11th and 14th... Here, I'll show you: Contrasting ... the 00Z GGEM wonderfully illustrates how a stronger ridge evolution in the west, and perhaps just different overall logistical handling of the wave spaces ( not saying better or worse here - ), lends to a more cohesive singular operating wave space that goes on to produce a much more successful H.A. type index mode-change event... This GGEM results a strong NE storm ... aspects related to ptype and whether people "like" the solution, notwithstanding... But the purpose is to elucidate the causal difference in why the Euro isn't manifesting a real system. If you take the frame further above and cinema that out in time, you can see the attending sfc features/evolution do nothing ... like at all. The Euro is achieving some exotically high proficiency in cyclone "suppression" ... but not in the same context and circumstances of having too much compression of heights and all that jazz...

No kidding… I was talking to John about this. I’m not so sure anymore because of a few reasons … too long/complicated to wanna bother. …that said, I would use the ensemble mean at this range

Seems like people are getting context fatigue when it comes to this winter. Fwiw the ensembles show that the operation version is an excessive outlier wrt the 13th

yeah yeah, but it's been doing it on every cycle way more so than usual deviation

The run is completely diverged from its own ensemble mean in the extended ... it's been tending to diverge, but this is a full on coma -

You should be Trump's press campaign manager

It's been dimming though

The 13th system appears legit/in the pipeline regardless ... It's a matter of whether it benefits from the pattern modulation going on while it is transmitting through. 00z Euro jumped on board going from almost nothing identifiable, right to a long duration commitment to S of L.I. transit... when it also appeared to be abruptly faster and more coherent in pulsing the +d(PNA) forcing across the continent. Other than minor differences aloft, continuing that theme in the 12z. The GFS has had the system for 3 days actually. But doesn't appear to have much +PNA ... going against its own ens mean. The GGEM also has at least a paltry version... All three operational runs have that space in time now reserved for something ... Which given the overwhelming erstwhile super-synoptic weighting (tele's and ens mean layouts), firing up a thread is higher confidence (relative to this range). The lower amplitude versions are less supported by the vast array of indicators. Here's the thing. The Euro is leading the GGEM and GEFs by moving it's mass fields toward the +d(PNA). It's version of 13th is acting much more like an H.A. event, with the flow plumbing along 100 W aft of the cyclone - it seems to be an index mode change entrance event. The other two models act as though they don't know where to take the pattern. Kind of wierd, but they look nondescript. The GFS solution out there in time doesn't represent a +2 SD PNA/ -d(EPO) very much at all ... In fact, it doesn't look like anything. But the lack of modality doesn't help deepen the 13th like the Euro does ...so it ends up more middling and needle threading.

Yup. It's all been a pretty textbook layout in the teleconnector projections going back a week or more actually.. . Over the time, the ens mean of all three majors began materializing what that should actually like at hemispheric scales, and considering at the time we were looking at 2 and 3 week outlooks ... the coherence was impressive.

12z Euro impressive