Typhoon Tip

No it was over land. This was clearly a rotating updraft at cloud materialization. but yeah... water spouts can sometimes register early. i've wondered in the past if that's just the higher moisture content helping to expose rotation more prolifically. Like there may be more rotation below common congestus cloud types that is just unknowable because there's no condensation. I was driving home from a day at Narragansett Beach once and we were heading back N on Rt 1 and as we passed through the s-breeze boundary/ up under the dark-based CUs there was a long rope funnel extending down from the mass and slopping horizontal. it was partially translucent making it hard to see .. .but that's no obstacle for the obsessive cloud nerds like myself.. - you cannot hide! I've actually seen small elevated 'micro' ropes tentacled out from the sides of random fair weather cu often enough. you just need sunglasses, patience, and obsession and you'll see them. granted those are different than wholesale rotating CU ... but there's a relationship. it's all academic really

I saw a photo once of a small cu tower pre glaciation ..., with a funnel extending half way to the ground.

Rt 2 along this eastern end and NE MA is scamming a beauty of a morning out of this theta-e tsunamis pattern.

You'd have to know what the exponential value is to be precise. Than you can take the root ( determine )... like, maybe if it's the exponential increase goes by the square, than you take the square root of 8. something like day 2.8 or so. that point in time should stop the momentum. seems intuitive. heh, at least you're not giving the interviewer dead air, gaped mouth and vacant stair for an answer

A little smidge of sarcasm in that, too but yeah ... there's been pattern misfortune, unrelenting, just as much. The thing that's sort of frustrating about this last decade since 2015 is that we really can't blame any subjective, or objectively poor winter performances entirely on CC - not that anyone is or has, just sayn'. It's perhaps academic to say but sometimes it needs to be stated: there's winters available on this planet down to 40 N. The acceleration of CC is very real, though. Ultimately it will damn the future. With 8 billion Industrial-advantaged oil-slaved inhabitants, that number's so large that if so many as 5% fail to abide by some sort of immediate remediation miracle... it doesn't matter how many trees the remaining 95% dry hump. The whole thing is untenable. In other words, we're still fucked as a species. People don't realize that destiny won't be survivable, not without a lot of hardships and major set backs. There is, maybe one hope at salvation. The same innovation that got humanity to a state of actually being a geological force on this planet (the "Anthropocene" as some are trying to codify), could win the race. When we sold our collective soul to this Industrial ways and means ... we also committed to it as our savior. Some rhetoric here but just saying that between carbon reclamation this, and plastic eating bacterium that and whatever "Humans will never fly" tech soon to emerge, puts us in a race between waking up from denial and complacency vs doom. Digressing...sorry. shit. But, the global temperature has risen 1.1 C since 1880, with most of it occurring since 1975. At least according to Goddard/NASA... Now, that does not include the global heat burst early in 2023 ...one which did not "settle back" The lurch stayed. That might push the decimal of that value a little. Not sure how much. Either way, not enough emphasis is put on the acceleration aspect. Very dangerous. The future can not be extrapolated using a linear inference ...unless we're fucking morons. I do think some of the unusual pattern behaviors can be attributable. The oddities have sort off served us "bad luck"

Weirdly warm Friday night

heh what is this social media support group gonna be like when this winter’s zactly like the last 3 or 4 of em, despite all leading interpolated indicators, interpretations, seasonal forecasts and arguments

Not that anyone needs to this said but ... not likely to last. But more so than just that, every global indicator there's a definition for is signaling warmth for mid month.

It's interesting how we're coming at this from two different interest areas... I was mentioning in the Aug thread ( I think ) yesterday that Friday might have about a 9 hour window of Bahama Blue atmosphere ... having been hoisted N around the E side of Debra's soul. I always thought that an impressive transport phenomenon

It's kind of an ugly pattern out there, huh. Sky aside though, the temperatures today are amazing! There's not enough impetus from that Canada to Maritime synopsis to really push the boundary S and clear us out. Meanwhile, WAR imposes ... this is causing a stationary cloud/ instability pooling that's wrung out for rain but is just sitting around now. So we wait on a trough amplitude to settle into the serm-permanent Cleveland nadir which pulls the the remnant smear of Debra N ...wee. exciting. I guess if we can boot-leg a couple of BN days out of this mess it's a nice reprieve from our new southern NJ summers

yeah... MDR yes threat here, lesser likely than even the low odds climo from this time range. not without a wholesale index change

My evil plan to activate the MDR next week is coming to fruition in the models ... muah hahaha

Heat burst synoptics at very high latitude

low stratospheric warming projection huh

I dunno if this going to hold up to any kind of attribution review ... but, it sure smells like it. Apparently a glacial ice failure sent the contents of a held back lake bursting. I'm also not up to speed on Juneau's recent travails. Apparently they've endured flooding recently, already. Unsure if it is related. So there's much here I don't know about Juneau .. However, anytime I read or hear about glacial lake releasing, that's usually related to CC in geologic history - regardless of scale.

Bahama blues ...but yup. lol

Looks like about 6 to 9 hour true Bahaman air mass transport... The models seem to be congealing around this boundary rocketing back N on Fri

You wonder ( ...or imagine as a big bunner lol - ) if there's discussion down at FEMA over whether to pull the general evac trigger and start the diaspora out of the valleys.

I can just make out an acceleration of an undercut murk density into NE CT tho - you're right ( looking at sat ) elsewhere, but I wonder if this starts "BDing"

Not unusual in the winter. Don't know about summer though in a situation like this.

Bit experimental but ... There is low frequency signal for -AAM toward mid month. This correlates to strengthening of Hadley cell components ... one of which is subtropical ridge robustness coming along with it. But, this is good news for 'tropical event enthusiasts' as it creates a conducive environment; anticipating less shear at lower latitudes ( underneath the canonical nodes). Thus, with easterlies tending to improve, a general lowering of TW to environment relative shear would be logical. I saw that and wondered what the MJO is up to. Nice, "...• MJO activity entering the Indian Ocean favors increased tropical cyclone activity over the Atlantic basin, with activity becoming more suppressed over the West Pacific and East Pacific..." It's like winning the lottery there a little bit ... you create a globally improved probability, then ...within that realm, the wave happens to time better for the Atlantic Basin. By the way, this shows up somewhat in the telecon spreads as well. The EPO is abruptly rising from -1 to +.5 or +1 SD by the 12th of the month. At that time, the PNA has collapsed toward neutral-negative, while the NAO is bouncing around between 0 and +1 SD. These projections have also been stable in the guidance outlooks for the last week. Despite the mid warm season correlation weakness ... this is still also a low frequency signal for less N-S orientation and more W-E structures, favoring ridge expansion. I'm sort of getting OT for tropical talk at this point ... but a warm signal is actually better for MDR correlation, because this limits the early extraction from the tropics in lieu of keeping activity moving W, longer; thus, improving odds of having to said events actually take place where the 'tropical event enthusiast' wants them happening. heh Anyway, in short, I can see why the MDR is entering another > probability period ( not just because its August, wise ass) without the MJO consideration, but having the UVM tendencies et al passing over the domain ... I like the mid month for genesis.

Yeah, an AMOC 'break down' ( or redistribution/morphology plausibility ) is less a cold "offset" factorization for the eastern American continent/Maritime of Canada, unfortunately. It's more so for NW Europe. We're still constrained by actual Meteorology of the atmosphere, which by geophysical constraint will always be a W --> E orienting corrections. This is part in parcel ( as an aside ...) to why the over-promotion of the NAO's influence, that precipitated out of the 1990's boon time for index identities ..., ( which still to this day lives on), hasn't been very well supported. The NAO is really an indirect result of wave decay frequencies relaying downstream the Pacific ... Perhaps more accurate just to say, 'whatever is west of its domain'. It's the non-linear residue down stream of the PNA ( to some degree related to the EPO ) - these latter are the real primary loaders for pattern forcing --> precipitation and temperature anomaly distributions across North America. If they are in a particular mode, than a (+) (-) NAO will emerge with some time lag application. This gives the illusion ( perhaps ..) that a given mode of the NAO was driving those biases, particularly over the eastern continental mid latitudes, ... but the NAO was/is actually a parallel result. It has its usefulness as a 'shaky' signal, but it is not a driver - the drive was/is always upstream. In fact, the NAO is far more objectively observed to occur post storm/amplitude changes between Chicago and Washington D.C.. Also, the 'hockey stick' euphemism for describing the recent curve of CC is a global distinction. Obviousness incoming here: pure numerical weighting the entire planetary average would absorb. Conceptually, there is no integrated way the N. Atlantic/AMOC dictates the longer term planetary state. It's a transient consequence over the course of a wholesale destination; it has impact over a much smaller geographical area relative to the whole.

spent some time analyzing this thing this morning ... Of the Can/Eur/USA, I'd trust the GFS the least

No shit. Oh k.... so "HFD" on the climo site is actually BDL ? yeah, I guess - just like Logan represents the temperature for "Boston". got it