Typhoon Tip

It actually passes over the islands just about as deep

This is about as impressive a signal as your ever going to see at 180 hrs

We’ll … you’re certainly lucky to have been born into this era of increasing acceptance -

Re the 11th Late blooming IP blizzard on the Euro... strange looking for a CCB head to do that but that's probably a nod to dynamics winning that, push come to shove. Major bomb on the GFS ... position less meaningful at this range. Whether that happens as is or not, the general/local hemisphere-synoptic evolution reminds me of 1997 late March. Fits my personal recall. Even the ensemble mean bears a likeness, having a well defined multi-contoured low at D7+ range, with spread back toward the coast. Mid and u/a low cuts off and deepens significantly in the op version, easily too close for comfort there. GGEM is warmest but it too reaches <980 mb pressure as it is leaving... All this is 180 to 200 hours out, offered up while their respective ensemble means are lit up with an obvious and continuous signal between Cape Cod and the BM. Interestingly persistent considering they picked this up at the 'coherence horizon' some D12 or 13 in advance. All of which is taking place in a saddling NAO index in the process of retrograding from eastern toward western limb orientation, while a +d(PNA) is underway. The atmosphere is marginal, but given some of these dynamical juggernaut solutions ...you could even do well with marginal+ as the kinematics are sufficient to overwhelm. The only thing stopping me from threading this event for early awareness is the modulation antic of typical March. I have seen a lot of these bigger majors normalize. Plus, we habitually see the models over amped at this range. If this were January ...different story. I'd say if we make D6 and this coherence is stayed/improves ... It's also a New Moon/spring tide concern late next weekend/11th

Wind turned E … that was a katabatic compression of an already anomalously hot air mass. The emergent synoptic circumstance had never been seen - it was determined to be CC feedback upon attribution science. Bringing that freak high kinetically charged, low DP air down slope was a death knell.

People forget we had about 24 inches of rain in 50 days in December and early January much of which fell in the 30s. actually check that… Just seems that way

It was like that many times all winter long down here – no sympathy. Lol

It is less likely that we will ever experience a synoptic/synergistic heat burst the likes of which they experienced out there, because of where we are situated with respect to the rest of the continent and the adjacent Labrador current. When we are not being fiddled with by the ladder cooling influence… our air mass is a result of having collected the bio ozone and or subtropical inflow off of the southwest Atlantic basin. We are a more humid baseline summer atmosphere, which is not conducive to temperatures rising to between 110 and 114° By circumstance when our dewpoint are low in the summer, it is typically because of kinetically cooled air mass from Canada There’s a reason why the ballast of our warming climate expression here in New England is in the nocturnal side of the diurnal. Fromunda’ dewpoints keep the air back-a ballz sultry at night. People have to understand that climate change means holding more water vapor in the atmosphere… Anyway, if it ever got to 104/76 that’s hot enough anyway because the heat index would be probably comparable to what they got out there and that would be the way that we would do it through the HI

I've always imagined a scenario where I had the wherewithal to flee this New England taint season. I'm willing to risk the historic bomb, because they are just too rare to bother. I'm also willing to risk the fair day in April, because those too are just too rare and not enough of them. April should not exist on a God intended Earth ... Mostly from about March 15 through May 1, what you get is what's going on out there right now. Light rain/40s F

EPS was an improvement. GEFS/GEPS hesitated just a little

yeah that Thursday thing's actually in the way of the latter one.

GEPS/GEFS were also weaker by some ...

It's been there since the time period in question first emerged through the outer 'coherency horizon' Like 15 days out lol. This particular 12z cycle is actually less than previous, but at this range? -that's allowed. I'm not dubious of the signal, per se. I am however leery about background seasonal change. There have been plenty of significant storms with frigid cold and wind hauling talcum powder ...all the way to Easter. If we are going to be lucidly rational about our chances here, however ...for every week that goes by climatology lowers those odds. But, I feel ( probably not a shared vibe, okay - ) like our climate has shifted shorter. Springs are earlier. It's like March 1 2024 is March 20th 1997. I was thinking that last week, and then some of these individual runs kind of started looking like April 1 back whence. I was like, 'no shit' ...Even if only hinted it's supporting my point. Anyway, that's conjecture. I mentioned a couple days ago that this was a candidate for holding off on a thread until perhaps 5 days. I don't hate the telecon spread for this. I just don't like the climate smear/seasonality shifting shit, combined with the sun modulating b-c fields

We spend all this time obsessing over the Arctic when in so far as climate change ramifications is a concern... it's the other one that's the biggest problem. https://phys.org/news/2024-03-scientists-fret-antarctic-sea-ice.html But... I don't really think a lot of the Arctic focus in here is really about climate change per se. More about preserving chances for cold and snow in people's winters, and having connected that to the state of north pole. Call me a 'motivational cynic' -

Poke and run on the hornet's nest here but that's GEPs mean is ...well, pretty 'mean' looking considering this is 200+ hours..

Zip continuity beyond D7 ... but, no model is really required to in that range anyway. Both aspects in that sentence all but completely require not even being allowed to post that shit LOL

The operational run is a cold outlier at 850 mb on the evening of the 10th. Despite the growing coherence in the mean/distribution products, the ens mean is quite a bit warmer than this above in the antecedence to that 10/11th system. One might think it would it trend colder as we near, or else the baroclinicity comes into question and the whole thing ends up an elevated gyre. Warned this in the past.... the big cyclone extended range systems of spring sometimes deteriorate in the runs as they near, because the b-c gradients get homogenized by the time of the year. But, maybe the oper is onto something.

should be able to label a model run for what it is, though. People tempering or not tempering expectations? I gave up on that years ago ... In fact, it is unlikely that would ever work in a returning usership that is in fact "suffering" ( whether they know it or not -) from an addiction complex that requires they actually get their expectations elevated. So fuggit ... describe the portrait for what it is.

Understatement wrt to that particular GGEM run... woof

I'm thinking a first time ever in history, CC attributed ... 55" ambient result at pan-dimensional scales in the triangulum NYC-RUT-BVY ... everyone gets a totally "normal" season snow total ha

they all do. I mean they gotta when there's a closed contoured mean in the vicinity from 10 days away.

yeah... admittedly, that struck me too as a possible lapse in foresight in selecting a handle that isolates the "ticular" suffix for reader processing ... LOL It's like going with Richard Head or perhaps the indelible lovable Michael Hunt

It does have some consistency - relative to being 10 or 11 days out+ - in the ensemble means. As Steve mentioned it also does fit the teleconnection outlook for that period of time ( 8th -15th) reasonably well. It could be better in that latter regards, ideally so ... but the +delta(PNA) may be more important there than whether it ultimately goes positive. I wouldn't be starting threads on that, from this range, without a fuller complement of clad mass-field suggestion, though. Just me.. It's a candidate for a day 5er until that happens. Vitals: a +d(PNA) that changes mode from -2 or -3 to just shy of 0 SD. Again, not ideal. But, it does suggest that the non-linear negative interference factor is decreasing ( which ends up being a positive for cyclogen ) -NAO that in itself is uniquely guilty in the past of being a Charlie Brown index. But this time, the integrated curve looks less "spiked" in nature. Combining that with a climate inference, negative NAO after eastern mid lat continent warm episodes in early to mid spring, these are confidence builders. However, it should be noted that the -NAO as seen in the ensembles, is an eastern limb variant to start ... some vague suggestion for retrograde at high latitudes farther out in time. The east bias in the layout offers room for eastern Lakes/ST L. seaway transits. What all that means is that this is a needle thread. What's new. I'm sure there is 0 patience to hear the words 'needle' and 'thread' in the same sentence after ... 8 years of it, but it is what it is. One aspect is a little interesting is the operational Euro's 'bowling ball' rendition. That's a bit different, and can also fit March climo

Yeah...it's above 6,000 ...that's like going to Venus to gawk over how hot it is. of course it's hot there. of course elevations get a ton of snow.

Getting this repeating impression that something's pulled N in the continent ... exposing what had been a suppressed El Nino S/stream all along. We just couldn't see it. This entire region E of 100 W has been getting punctured and perforated with all this lower latitude vorticity shrapnel ...turning the corner and generating these weak Miller A relfections that are completely f'ing up what really could have been 70s Mon-Wed. Now ... it's probably cold in Boston with a Harbo fist pushing all the way to Alb the way that's been going.