Typhoon Tip

I suspect RONI or RONI-like offsets, in general, will force some of this anyway

It's a good thing we're closing off that low SE so we can hold onto a snow and mix ptypes

amazing... That must be excessively localized. Our lawns are pretty good down here along this end of Rt 2. Both those and open field expanses. They're doing summer Lacrosse on mainly green. etc... I was just thinking to my self yesterday that considering June was +5, and July appearing destined to similar, it's interesting that we are so green relative to those departures. Might expect more summer tanning for getting that warm. Maybe we've just been luckier down this way.

I’m not super impressed with heat wave signals after about Augie 10. We get them sure, but the solar calendar is beyond the max so any 20C 850 is just not going to result the same as it is prior to that ~ escape.

GFS is flirting with it about every other run. But even on the hot runs it then goes out of the way to immediately pack the heights into the west 10 minutes after we’ve finally ridged. Euro’s been sorta like that too.

6 hr heat wave

Folks may be adjusted so far that they’re sensibly interpreting a nadir of/to normalcy as an actual cold shot ? Which “cold shot,” although entirely semantic … really should be reserved for actually below normal. I came over the Berkshire divide today. The valleys around ALB were as high as 86 on the dash … then it was 73 over the crest at 1750’, back into the low or mid 80s by the time Springfield went by the car. Been off the weather juice for over a week and the only thing as refreshing was the appeal of that as being entirely a 30yr/N terms kinda day. … Minus the last 10 years worth of variance mania so vast one cannot even trust the means.

I believe we are witnessing the models with a synergistically ( wave harmonic) improved ridge event in this scenario. Not being over land is probably a blessing. These are found in the vicinity of notable surface heat bursts that have been occurring with increased frequency dappled around the globe. They are atypical to normal summer positive anomaly behavior - though do preferentially occur during the spring and summer months. Where they do, surface temperatures may soar well beyond guidance/machine based interpolations.

That's exactly what I ended up with 31.5"

I'm a little intrigued at the integrity of the PV as we are passing into the heart of summer. There's a couple of competing geophysical aspects going on though. 1 That observation above - I have found - is also related to the d(cryo) toward the end of Aug+ The presence of a stronger than normal summer PV structure over the longer term mean of the anomalies, tends to precede a more rapid land replacement/ happening earlier. Sea ice comes along with that rate of change. 2 Climate change is unfortunately "getting in the way" of this type of correlation. It's not abundantly clear whether we are over thresholds too far to where the previous climate mode's correlations have necessarily broken completely down. I don't think so ... buuut - I'll be particularly interested in the rapidity in which the late summer and autumn cryospheric recovery is going ... *IF* this mid summer PV integrity remains robust.

No idea what the conversation is about ... and don't wanna know. But this statement in a vacuum is pretty funny -

GFS is likely overdone with that scale and degree of the cool back in the GL/Missouri Valley

I noticed that too, Scott. The other day I was panning around the buoys and thought, 'why is the water so chilly' out there. But even the shelf waters "seem" a little delayed to pass 70 F compared to recent years. I'm not sure what they are, relative to date, based upon longer termed climo.... probably they're still warmer than the mean date - just not as impressive as recency. I dunno - For 'Caning purposes, was hopping to see the 78 at least to station 44025/E of Jersey

This morning around dawn we were getting these weird tiny droplet quick showers that barely made enough sound through the trees to be audible. They lasted about 30 seconds ... not enough to completely wet the roads. Radar showed just single pixels of lowest DBZ possible ... like freckles across the scans. The T/TD was 78/77 here. It's almost like the the atmosphere was at a theta-e threshold were it simply could not hold more water. Thermodynamic shedding, so to speak. The feel of the air has the 'metalic warmth' I call it - when it seems like you can feel the infrared dosing from the air itself ( probably like those that 'smell rain'). More tropical than Aruba

yeah, I wasn't sure guys. not surprising. But this has gone down as advertised last week ( fwiw - ) The temperature side of this routine hasn't been extraordinary. I wrote that a 'seasonal heat wave' was favored - but that doesn't include people's perceptions and/or HI valuations due to bathtub DPs. haha. When it's 91/77 ... you're 106ing is performing better than the 96/63 stuff we used to get in prior climate generations ... before Gaia started slowly turning up the fire under the toads in the pan. heh. But last week ... I mean one is not inclined to believe DP prognostics at a scalar degree. Not even sure 75 to 80 was modeled - nor by hours

It's the regional integral that's noteworthy for me. We've seen urban elevated lows due to very local island effects all the time where lows don't fall beneath the low 70s. Even mid to upper 70s isn't that uncommon 'down town' during heat waves. But in this situation ... we're not in a heat wave for one ( tho close in some cases?). Regionally, a well mixed breeziness overnight where the bucolic settings are just as a torrid as any urban centers. Noting the 60s DPs in PA to N NYS. It's funny cuz we've often noted that we don't contribute to global warming very well with the high temperature behavior in our region of the continent. We do, however, seem to perform very well with nighttime lows. Well this ^ is a 'roided up version of that, huh. Maybe we can single contribution move the global needle a decimal or two haha

holy shit LOL i thought "bang coc" when I read that... weird

This may seem sorta silly - not even sure... - but I don't recall a land felled TC producing this much T trouble so far from continental entry.

May be the highest DPs among ASOS I ever recall... KOWD is 90/79 ( for a HI of 106) KASH is likely a erroneous ... not sure. 81 But KFIT at 77 is extraordinary for that site! KBDL 77... KORH 75 is exception for that location. KBED 87/76

Can't hold it, huh lol

Maybe Brian can run numbers but this has gotta be some kind of a bulk hydrostatic height record over Logan 36000955942 00599 112016 80232017 36000945433 -0800 091823 82232317 42000976240 02301 112018 79222116 42000986242 03296 091821 81232316 48001976960 01797 111919 80232116 48001905029 01100 112112 80241917 54000925631 01098 132017 81242116 54000493539 00905 132216 80281916 60000874031 01000 142121 81242018

somewhat interesting ( also ) in that the interval is over a whole degree. When looking down this list the more typical interval gap is < a degree and usually just 1 to 3 tenths.

Buds in February ?

I wonder if we can set a MWN record

I was just commenting on the WAR's involvement in this S conveyor episode - it may actually suppress significant rain. Heights actually rise from the SE, shortly after Beryl's guts smear by to the NW, so whatever we get from this pattern needs ( probably ) to happen while that is occurring because it we may be stably capped at mid levels ( over a warm DP pool below) for a day or two afterward. It's just what the synoptics look like right now. Maybe the ridge doesn't bump so much NW... whatever -