Typhoon Tip

upgraded tomorrow to slgt rotated dial type sev potential.

it's probably more a semantics -related discussion but 'hyperactive' is/was too heavy, which ever came first why not just say above average? i would argue that 'hyper' is fleeting arleady. commented on this a while ago today but sep's unlikely to exceed 6 tcs for a single month's production - just looking at all historically active months, to do so is rare but even if there were 7 or 8 we'd have to do that again in october, and then above normal novie for hyperactive to be a qualitative description for 2024.

it's not really relevant to me. being ahead or behind in ace right now as of aug 25 2024 ... not sure what that has to do with failing expectation number of tcs. a better performance up to this point then ace would likely be even bigger than now. ace being bigger than climate because of two systems doesn't diminish the failure in the other sense as to where we're going with this season first of all, who or what source pre characterized this season as 'hyperactive' ? i only read above normal. i'm just wondering if the social media mill's been bunning this season. if it came from some traditional or formally accepted and proven source than shame on them - that's an irresponsible attempt. that said, we've seen flurries of activity in sep of the past. however, the two bigger seasons that at least i can remember, 1995 and 2005 they did seem to 'head start' by virtue of having actual tcs by now. granted. just experience and some knowledge about how this shit works... i don't believe getting more than 6 maybe 8 track-able events out of a single month is very likely. i agree the clock ticks. i think a better metaphor, than comparing apple ace to orange ace, ... is like being completely eligible and wanting to create a family but you're 55

except that ncep's managed to create a model that's consummately doing whatever it can to get there in the winter and summer

that type of heat fails in a euro esque evolution theres no way heat makes it n-e of nyc with a large polar high rolling over to our n like that. shunt job big time and prior to that mon-wed the deep heat's not here yet.

these'll probably go on to roller coaster the autumn ... dipping to near cryo and then soaring to 80 at week's range, clear into novie. this, i suspect, is related/causal i why these october snow chances have become all but common in recent decade(s) heh..every time it snows across the bow air mass, we get this optimism bi-polarism that slams shut when it's 77.8 F 3 days later.

yeah i know ... was just doubling down on the cynicism and how no matter who it is, humans are subjective

because human beings create models, and human beings are more or less influenced ( but always are some way, some how ...) by the existential connection to their sensible surroundings. lot of words to say ... cold and snow is their primary ongoing risks ( or used to be ...) so some how, some way, that influences the way they construct their environmental tooling that is charged with the responsibility of predicting threats. it's not a directive ... more of an indirect bias, hugely subtle.

no shit -

wow man what an incredible day out there 79/55 with no f'n smoke

i think it was a CC attributable meander... ( i can guarantee there is a misconception that attribution is limited to those circumstances that make for dystopian headlines ... but the insidious nature is that it's probably taking place in subtler ways more so than not - albeit unknowable to common experience, and even some of these PHD clowns) there's an interesting paper about this out there where meanders are shown, using climate modeling/super computing, toting cold to mid latitudes at varying scales. they are causing huge temperature variations across relatively short time spans ( intra seasonally..). this strikes me pretty clearly as relatable to all that - ultimately oblivious due to the non-injurious nature.

it probably was ... in most cases ... the warm inflow tends to be on the right side of the storm path, such that the updraft preferentially seeks that sources once the segregation of updraft and downdraft is taking place. as the storm operates in perpetuity, it biases the continuous development in whatever direction is supplying the instability. it's just that there are other forces also concurrent with those mechanics, and the totality of the storm motion will be an average of all that contributes - this more and less obscures matters

weirdly coincidental .. this BBC article surfaces https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20240820-why-category-1-hurricane-ernesto-is-still-dangerous?utm_source=pocket-newtab-en-us

Warmup by several tomorrow

cat 1 winds are dramatic though. it's exciting, and if one is on vacation ...that's like a having an activity day built in day 1 beach day. day 2 hurricaning. day 3 golf, dinner and bangin' ...etc

still zip from the gfs

wait ... i thought that chamber of comm was 72/53 tomorrow and sat are above that, no ?

nam at least is warmer tomorrow and sat interpreting off the grid looks like light west wind, open sky and about 27 c in the 2 m which aligns well enough with the mos/machine it's like 81/56 with light wind under open blue - couple of top 10ers

in theory .. but man, these operational models are fighting the telecon - which are based on the ensemble mean/derivatives that the operational models are a part of... but a -PNA through ~ D8 or 10 should be ridging more here than it is - which is supposed to lower bulk shear and provide a favorable layout down there. it's like we have the cool node the last 2 weeks.. fixed in position between ohio and nova scotia, and the rest of the hemisphere is flowing around it. regardless of mode ...like it's a cold rock in the stream. anyway, farther e the mdr is suggested by the recent ggem operational runs. the most recent gfs is got an unlikely ri tc in the eastern caribbean's canonical 'dead zone' ... either way, activity matches the anticipation laid out by the mjo desk

it's liable to either snow, or be an atmosphere that supports snow in october at some point

582 hgts too have seen sfc t in the mid 90s at those 500 mb hgts, but because they happen to be associated with cyclonic curvature in that case (next week) the models 'get' to go cool happy lol

summer telecon ftl i suppose. the blend of the various modes argues for a warm setting over eastern mid latitudes of n/a more so than we've been seeing this "cool shot" was an aberration too. relative to those indicators. i guess we got to get lucky sometimes too

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