Typhoon Tip

I know ... that solution would go a considerable distance toward mending broken hearts -

Yeah, the solution didn't really evolve S .. but either way, it's not been the snowier of guidance. no worries for snow mongering, considering the product and range -

Yeah, the problem with big events is that it's like cashing out an IPE bank account - "P" meaning planetary, so integrated planetary energy. There's a kind of "extratropical IPE budget" in a sense. You can be peppered by nickle and dimes, or use up the IPE in a go. That's why when you look at the days and sometimes weeks following historic big dawgs, you're typically waiting a while and enter a kind of post mortem dullard state of inactivity that protracts. So, "Big events" are tied to larger scaled mass field perturbations. Those don't come around that often, which means ... big events don't come around that often. Dated material at this point and getting old school, but that's really what the Archembault master's thesis was really useful for back in the day: exposing that, statistically. It used to get referenced quite a lot more frequently ... one can google it and read the paper and not get it because no one in society knows how to read and objectively intellectualize content any more ... but it is still out there. HAHA j/k (does seem like we're nearing a "stupifying idiot-zombie" crisis at a broadly scoped societal scale, though) It really can be described in a simple sentence. The atmospheric pattern remains the same until acted upon by a force that is sufficient to disturb the status quo. Borrowed from Newton's First Law of Mechanics? absolutely . For atmospheric phenomenon, the disruption is defined by a changing PNA, or EPO, or AO, or WPO ...or NAO, etc etc.. That's why we discuss d(PNA) and not PNA. Because the former is ( d = delta = "changing" ). You look at the PNA and says -1.00, then three days later it says -.5 ... that is a +d(PNA), or rising value. Rising PNA uuusuually = d-drip chances. Now, just imagine all these indices that are defined ( and in reality ...there are infinite domain spaces; there's no real boundary, but some regions do show better correlation in the statistics so boundaries are determined that will always be estimates) having their own changing modes. yeah ...

NAM appears to be coming in S ...but it's only out to 60 hours, and the model is piece of rhino dung at this range ... just sayin'

My fav 00z operational model run was the GGEM ... not for any predictive value ( of course ..haha ) but just the cinema. Given a small modulation, that was 3 events in a really beautiful temporal distribution - about every 3 days on the button. It's been a long, long time since we had a steady diet of nickle and dime potentials in an ensemble line modeled set-up. You could be enjoying a nice low end 6" warning event, and a half day later you're already in a winter storm watch. This happened in 2015, 1995, 1994 ... 2008 ( I think..) it's been that long as far as I recall.

Seemed like we bottomed out in temperatures during climo cold week, too - check that... but at least around here... I had multiple nights below 0 surrounding the 24th of January, with highs at 20 or less. It's been chilly overall..but that was kind of an embedded nadir

This event - to me - looks like it has the same circumstance of uncertainty at this range, that plagued ( and still does...) this D6 system in the foreground. It's evolving along a compressed/very fast flow. Excessive needle threading requires precision that's going to be hard to come by at a D5 or 6 lead... For now, the tracks seem to be N of the triple point lat/lon nexus we see for the 6th. All guidance I've seen from 00z have a low up NW of ALB, But like the 6th, the speed of the approaching wave/storm mechanics is so fast it outpaces the lower tropospheric ability to modulate/"scour out" the cold. This leads to the IB pulse snows that then go to pellets S and perhaps staying S N - circumstantially, this latter obviously favoring central and NNE if the track stays - not sure we can count on that, however. There seems to be a bit of hint to more secondary in the EPS and GEFs..which may be an indicator for a future correction but that's purely supposition for now.

It may snow pretty hard for a couple hours in NE Mass in that Euro solution. Even with Pivotal's 6-hourly cinema speed, it looks to me like there's a pretty good isentropic burst between hours 84 and 90, which probably means blossoms intensity on the ground up there. I'm not looking at any interpretive MOS-related graphics...just noting the QPF distribution/surge from Brian's to E of Boston axis that suddenly appears at hour 90. In fact, all the guidance I've seen now are doing something similar. Its a matter of when in the total system translation. The UKMET has the "in like a wall" look at 87 over western zone. Kind of like it's flurries to 1/4 mi vis in 5 to 10 minutes. GGEM is pure sleet event - bit of an operational outlier but possible... The GFS brings those 2.24" diameter jagged-edged cotton ball thumpers before flipping the Pike to drizzle.

This is the way I have been leaning ...more GFS in this synoptic circumstance. This is more of an intangible - meaning difficult to put in empirically backed terms ... - but the Euro's decimal small bias to back hold events, tends to tip the flow vaguely too much S-N. Contrasting, the GFS with its decimal small speed bias, will tend to stretch the flow W-E. Before applying either of these models to the circumstantial hemisphere, that circumstance thus favors the GFS' handling in tis case. Compression is making the GFS better this season on whole, btw. LOL Like I said ..difficult to prove, because their handling biases are pretty vague at this point. But the ultra thread needle rifle patterns, decimals changes in track mean significant profile differences over smaller distances. Fwiw, I am noticing that of the corrections, altho small in either case, the Euro's been doing more of it. This is still also a blazing fast minor event - it's probably a good thing that this junket last night used up everyone's attention because this thing for the 6th is like a 3.5 hour burst of moderate snow, 1.5 hours of lighter pingers, ending as drizzle or valley freezing drizzle. 3-4" maybe a 5" and I like your story line there where the temp pops with the occluded boundary. Could jump from 34.5 ish to 43 for an hour or two with mad dripping. Kind of like a 00z UKMET on whole. Fast fast fast. I'm even imagining this thing speeding up if anything by an hour or two.

Holy smokes!

altho I haven’t seen the 0 GFS

American vs European

Heh. Too early to discount tho; really guarded. Things can turn around really fast - as much as you’ve been break pumping I’ve been trying to emphasize not to get caught up in the weeds of this thing. The only reason we are even normal (if even below here and there ) is this EPO anomaly - which is a bit of a La Niña anomaly in itself. It’s been predominating the circulation mode for 6 on in weeks. If the faucet shuts off our rest state without it defaults to above normal + any embedded warm bursts. Very different world. It’s just that for the time being … we are protected by modeling. And possibly that the La Niña isn’t firmly coupled … but that takes a broader analysis

Been an exceptional year for shorter lead model fights. 96 hrs and these models are throwin haymakers …in 2025

K, soo at the end of the week the solar minimum ends LOL

I'm thinking compromised solution at the moment, just because there are not enough compelling reasons to go with either

It's as though the entire global negative quota is over the N/A continent below 50 deg N

oh right. Those are the 50 mb not 500 I'm like what the fu -

ehhh it's backing off a little on our side - it subtle but just bein' fair. Doesn't probably matter. That structure is so over killed that half that presentation would still bring -25 F to Tower Minnesota

It's amazing how dependable these early La Nina springs are ...

That's a crazy fantastic look on this operational GFS for the clown range, tho holy cryo shit. Massive nodal blocking in the epo and nao, with a 504 dm SPV over Wisconsin - nICE

the 6th and the 9th in the GFS solutions lately look quite similar

I'm interesting it that guidance in summer

Will and I mentioned back and forth last week that as we head thru these first two weeks of February, that model performance was going be challenged. In this case, crucially what is taking place is that the Euro is putting more emphasis on the southern Canada transit of a N/stream S/W and attending low ... I had referred to that low as a primary, but it's technically not that. It's just really the N/stream interfering by bullying wave space into a fragile S/stream impulse. The GFS places less emphasis on that feature in southern Canada, and this creates a bigger synoptic gap, resulting less negative interference, allowing it to generate more coastal response - albeit weak overall, but enough so to put in play more of what people want to see happen. Normally in this situation I'd say there is a 50/50 chance of either; both argument are valid. The reason why I was leaning more GFS, however, was the NAO, which is gone/going negative during that period. This really should suppress the Canadian transit and help the wholesale commit more to a GFS -like solution.. 12z is bumped N like Scott was mentioning, confusing matters because not really doing so because of the N/stream. It's still weaker with that N/stream S/W compared to prior Euro. Then we get into idiosyncrasies like the system moving so fast. It may be that any antecedent cold anomaly in position doesn't get scoured out in time - in which case, any model going west may error some in the lowest level, anyway... GGEM kind of likes that idea, interestingly. It looks like a scalping sleet fest inside a warm sector which is weird. In the end, model error incarnate. The intangible of seasonal trend to be cold, while finding the least amount of actual snow that is physically possible relative to a cold hemisphere, is difficult not to invade one's perception. LOL I get it. It doesn't lend to anything over performing, does it - ...It's not the most sciency thing to say, but regardless the actual cause for that ( I suspect it's simply too much speed/compression but whatever - ), it's hard to knock such a persistent result trend.

Agreed ... most of these facets I've covered in the thread opener. The crucible of time has burned off quality readers/contributors, leaving more and more of this cackling nonsense - it's getting more and more like a Trump rally in here... [ this is an opportunity for the, "you're new to this forum" response ] I guess. I'm not sure what the source of the antipathy is or is felt somehow justified by, but l have more confidence that is is completely out of line and subjectively based on idiocy and thus unwarranted, than I do that this "...2-4 or 3-5" potential will survive verification.