Typhoon Tip

first real eye-candy run of the year... i'm impressed it took this long. usually we see the gfs float an idea like that by septermber 24th or something much earlier. lol

you're doing what everyone does when they don't like the information - gang up ...lampoon, saying there's no ridicule there or intended, but is like the best gaslighters, you're treating others with disrespect and candy coating it - or thinking your are. you're winters are dimming because of climate change. period

well, if you got another explanation for what is utterly incontrovertibly objective reality ( hint hint ). otherwise ... it might be time to start taking your foot off the incredulity and disrespect throttle and well ... look intelligent.

the pattern the operational runs are selling lately is attempting to abase the recent persistence of western trough ... leading to episodic eastern ridges - causing these warm burst behaviors. that may or may not happen. but suppose it does, it's not exactly headlong into winter that they are offering instead. more like a seasonal oscillatory thing. if i could have my druthers, it would be like yesterday ... every day, until such time that reality commits to winter. if this latter circumstance is not going to happen, the next best thing is 'operation no winter shock and awe' - i can think of a lot of societal positives that could manifest for being shocked and/or awed that way ... but that's another discussion. anyway, i think what's slated to take place over the next 3 weeks is that since the -rna thing/rossby base is really unchanging, and this oscillatory aspect is all apparently being forced by an excursion of -ao/-nao, as soon as these latter alleviate ( or even prove overbearing in the models all along -) the previous dynamic resumes and we return to another period where it could warm burst again. and this paragraph is not based on my druthers. like is said, the -pna and the general +wpo/+epo over-arcing, don't really lend to otherwise. if these show signs of legit change, we'll talk

heh may not be quite that bad, 'mirage' didn't mean to come off dismissive - sorry presently, the pna mode is going negative. for other nerds like me that pay attention to the tedium of telecons may find it interesting that the pna has in fact been positive during this last two weeks of pulsed warm explosions ... yeah, a little weird. so, there's some incongruity going on. okay, in an orthodox sense, the -pna at this time of year fits ( perhaps some lag) -naos . because of this alone, that teleconnects to heights falls between cape cod and new fundland. the models do this thing, though, where they end up going crazy with those set ins that are ... d11's or whatever, with either lows(highs) that pass through those constructive interference regions - which are also ephemeral. it's all timing. it's really when the linear wave function/features, the ones that are coherently trackable in guidance, vs the non-linear wave functions, the 'invisible' constructive vs destructive inteference nodes that are also bubbling in and out of existence, all time well vs poorly. when they time well in models, march 1993, or january 26 1978 or enter flogging here [ ] etc. when they time poorly, march 2001 in the mid atlantic. but, this ( i suspect ) is at least related to why the models attenuate either troughs, or ridges, by some 20 to 30% as features in the outer frames age toward the inner middle range so often. so, the orbital correlation says there's room to lower heights where the models have been toying with that idea, but there's not a lot of baroclinc gradient going on in the wholesale hemisphere - owing probably to lacking anticedent pac circulation mode cutting that off.. maybe i dunno. cc may be involved too. hell. anyway, putting all this together, seems like a candidate to attenuate that ... this is all predicated on there actually being a -nao response to the arriving -pna, too. -nao could also be biased east ... low predictive skill right now

fwiw - https://phys.org/news/2024-11-virtually-hottest-year-eu.html

unlikely

for those of us sticking to the thread's title and intentions, from the mjo desk at cpc "La Niña conditions have been slow to evolve across the Pacific, and may be further disrupted by recent MJO activity. As the suppressed phase of the MJO crosses the Pacific over the next few weeks, however, a strong trade wind surge is favored, which may help further the evolution of the low frequency base state" seeing roni in action there. mjo is probably enhanced by blazing warm ocean-atmosphere coupled western to central pac transit of the wave space ( relative to climo...etc) and that heat flux is probably helping to 'charge' the total wave space strength. --> suppressing the basal frequency/enso. there's other ways but this is just one in which climate plays a role in the daily modulation - see... you can, in a way, anticipate cc in 2-week forecast philosophy. the other aspect in the total qualification of roni is probably the enhanced mid lat gradient causing ambient velocities to speed up. that g-strophic wind surplus then effects the rosby wave stability .. that then acts as a destructive interference wrt the the climate position/correlations of ensos. etc... these are contributor multi-sourced in the increasing frequency of poorly coupled enso states being observed over the past decade(s)

not surprising on the highest 'average' t ... i mentioned that suspicion in the la nina thread when talking to chuck.

yet my fix is even more on point -

know what ... it'd be just as much fun - for me in my morbid fascination ... - if this thread was repurposed for contesting/tracking just how many record warm days this winter becomes all about.

bos pinged 82 fwiw - 6 over the previous record

welp ... guess we can go ahead and torpedo any hope of a front loaded winter -

the thing i find interesting about this is that the last heat burst up over the eastern ridge last week was actually modeled to be more than this, but the sensible/measured result had this one the superior. may be another in a week too.

81 at hfd and bos destroys the previous record for nov 6 set just as recently as 2022, by 5+ degrees f ! orh previous was 72, set 2022, now it is 79 at 1000k elevation. dps at hfd and bos are 55+ ...so this air mass is not just a kinetic fluke. it's 'thermodynamically historic' - if that's a metric i'm just stunned by this one -

it was 80+ in mid february ( february!) twice (separate years) over the decade. it's like these are all 'attributable'

81 at hfd and bos destroys the previous record for nov 6 set just as recently as 2022, by 5+ degrees f ! orh previous was 72, set both 2015 and 2022, now it is 79 at 1000k elevation. dps at hfd and bos are 55+ ...so this air mass is not just a kinetic fluke. it's 'thermodynamically historic' - if that's a metric sorry for the history lesson but i'm just stunned by this one -

that's not what i'm referring to i mean, the unknown product that is being caused ( synergistically...) by cc contribution in recency, surpasses that which is contributory ... 1990 or back whence. which is difficult to ascertain, but a closer approximation to the amount of 'weight' is more now than back then, and can be derived by the slope of the curve at either end. either way, we agree. lol

it's a good start... however, the curve looks like this, ...which means 'slight' weighting is unfortunately hugely inadequate. we need to derive a correction coefficient value that is related to the slope at either end of ...whatever is the actual exponential rise

add whatever decimals if not whole degree(s) correction for cc to historical climate inference ...something no one in here does for some strange reason, and the extremeness is probably an unknown extension. these types of wildly anomalous patterns can happen anyway... but this autumn mmm, proooobably has a cc finger print on it to some form or another via attribution shit, and with that comes the uncertain ranges produced by synergy. that is why it is currently 80 f between hfd and mht up here, with dps over 60! that combination with light wind and near full sun, is hugely unlike the typical warm balm/indian summer thing. which typically features a warm afternoon(s) over parchy dps. the wb temps are still in fact chilly in the climo novembe departure. our wb is about 68 right now, doing so without the canonical southerly gale going on, whence mist and leaning tree tops makes for wcb transport that's in and out in 9 hrs. full sun, light wind 81/63 completely and utterly out of the ordinary by character in 'how' - the symbolic nature of how these things impress are just as important (imho). and in fact, the empirical numbers, of having 60+ for low temperatures in front of this afternoon ... the diurnal mean is something akin to a regional synergistic heat bomb happening as we type. we may not break a high or low temp ( though hfd did ...), but the average is probably never happened on novie 6. this is what those charts, combined with cc coefficient fixing, can do - today exemplifies that? now imagine doing this a couple more times and we're talking about an aggregate scenario that is alarming, period.

64 low now... 78 off the hook anomaly at both ends of the day? it may not be a record high, or low, but the daily mean is going to ceiling. this may qualify as a synergistic heat bomb - we just do it in spring and falls we just almost can't get that done in july around here, because it seems per monitoring ... there's too may ways to interfere with top end heat in summer at our geologic circumstance.

sometimes i feel like there needs to be an Isaac Cline of climate monitoring ... if anyone's ever read the time's best seller, isaac's storm ( which i have ...fantastic accounting ) about the galveston bay disaster in 1900. with terrific descriptive prose brought to imagination and emotion, the cultural life and times of the era, and the lacking real understanding of hurricanes. he describes the indifference of the civlity as the hours neared to their doom. isaac cline was an employee of the then 'weather bureau' ... he took to galloping horseback, frantically screaming up and down the bay side causeway that connected barrier islands, and throughout the town itself ... warning of the impending disaster. flee. flee. we've known for some time that the polar domains are warming some 3x's faster than regions below the 70th parallels, anyway - during this 'hockey stick' acceleration of global warming that has occurred over the last 2 to 3 decades. what if ...this was all prelude to a geological event, one no one thought or even imagined could take place: the whole of the domain surging past some perilous threshold all at once... good sci fi if nothing else. kind of like cline's 'the british are coming! the british are coming!' style campaign would be useful here... back whence, the largely non-suspecting "ignorami" were incredulous to his alerts. didn't end well for civility.

walking around in 76 f air at this time of year ... i'm starting to wonder if i want ridges shifting anywhere

either way ... it should be going the warm way as certain aspect that shall remain diplomatic ... continue to evolve.

jesus, how old do you think i am ? lol 1950