Iceagewhereartthou

Yeah, I've heard that before and its a mind boggling streak. I looked it up and Dec 1984 was the last month. Hmm, wonder if it had any effect on Jan 85. Anything happen that month of interest?

Ok, believe it or not I actually tried to find the answer! NWS only goes back 5 years, or 60 months, and I don't know where to go to get farther back. I tried wunderground, but I every time I try to bring up the history for GSP it goes over to some site in Peru...? anyway, for the past 60 months - back though Oct of 2013, there have actually been 19 that were below normal - actually more than I would have thought. But still, less than a third. One was exactly normal, and the rest were above. These are the months below for each year since then 2013 - Nov 2014 - Jan, Mar, July, Aug, Nov 2015 - Jan, Feb, Oct 2016 - Jan, Feb, May 2017 - June, Aug 2018 - Jan, Mar, April, July, Aug The top 3 greatest departures below were as follows: 1. Jan 14 (-6.1), 2. Nov 14 (-4.7), 3. Jan 18 (-4.1) Most of the rest were less than 2 below normal. The three greatest positive departures were as follows: 1. Dec 15 (+11.2), 2. Feb 17 (+8.2), 3. Feb 18 (+7.9), nearly twice the greatest cold departures.

GSP has not recorded a single day below average since 8/26. CLT and AVL, since 8/25.

I was looking at a listing of GSP 's top five warmest for each month, and it shows what many of us have been experiencing and referencing of late; an alarming number of record and near record warm months just in the last few years. Going back to 2010, there have been 105 months, not counting this Oct. The number 1 and 3 warmest Februaries on record, 2017 and 2018 The number 1 and 4 Marches, 2012 and 2016 The number 1 April 2017 The number 4 May, 2018 The number 2 June, 2010 The number 3, 4, and 5 July s, 2016, 2011, 2010 The number 3 and 5 Augusta, 2011 and 2016 The number 2 and 4 Septembers, 2018 and 2016 The number 5 October, 2016 And the number 1 December, 2015. That is 16 of our last 105 months have been an all-time top five warmest for that particular month (with 4 having been the warmest ever)! Even the previous decade, the 2000s, which was a warm decade only had 7 total, and that was a lot. By contrast, we have only had 1 top 5 coldest since 2010, that was our number 5 December 2010. And only one other going back to 2000; number 3 December, 2000. Disturbing trends!

CAE hit 90 today. Not terribly unusual for them in early Oct, but getting pretty late for that. AVL still hasn't gone below 60 since 8/25! I simply can't believe that factoid! Not forecast to do so over the coming week either.

In truth, I'm not even asking for "cold" right now. It doesn't have to be 10 below average ) though that would be nice), I would just like to see, you know, average... Just having a little crisp, at least at night, a drop in humidity (like is supposed to happen in Oct.) , a nip to get the leaves starting to change, some of those bright blue afternoons without the summer like feel... Ok, gotta stop, getting frustrated again

Sentence 1: Unfortunately it seems to be the NEW normal. Sentences 2-3 : Nothing more depressing than other people's snow Sentence 4: Cold is NEVER, EVER a waste! Bring it on Sentence 5: Of course we have nothing to do with it, and it WILL change eventually, but it would sure be nice to get stuck in a GOOD pattern for six weeks every now and then Sentence 6: We certainly hope so but more times than not in the SE we get the pain without the pleasure Sentence 7: We hope, but December can certainly be spring like, as we've seen a couple years recently. Don't think we'll ever forget this Sept. Bring on FALL!!!!!

Thing is it will take a major cold frontal passage just to get us to normal! That's an insane stat, and looks like Oct is starting way above normal too! If the "averages even out over time" theory (aka "bathtub") ever works we'll be due some EPIC cold for years to make up for the last couple decades!

Yep, and just today the GFS has pushed it back yet again, now showing 14th-16th. It's all a hoax, cool downs are a thing of the past for the SE.

Yeah they continue to show the period around the 13th as promising so that it encouraging. Only problem is that before that they were zoned in on the period around the 9th and 10th. And before that it was the 5th and 6th that was going to be the real first front. Except they had been touting the 2nd and 3rd as the change of airmasses. But the end of September, 27th and 28th were going to bring the real relief. But before that...

Meanwhile, just as we can't get rid of summer, Northern Rockies of Montana under WSW for up to two feet of snow. MUST BE NICE

GSP just completed a Sept which tied for the second warmest ever at 78.1 (1921). The high was 93, the low was 67, FOR THE WHOLE MONTH (craziness!). 9 days reached 90 or higher and only 12 mornings dropped below 70, almost all in the last half. For comparison, this July had a high of 94 with a low of 64. 8 days reached 90 or higher and 13 mornings dropped below 70. Insane! CAE had an average of 81.9. The high was 97, the low was 66. A whopping 21 days reached 90 or higher, with 11 being 95 or higher. Only 4 mornings dropped below 70. CLT had a monthly average of 78.9. The high was 94, the low was 64. 11 days reached 90 or higher and only 9 mornings dropped below 70.

Just unbelievable weather for the SE ... lucky us. And I HATE that we're seemingly not going to have a leaf season this year. Usually by this time the early trees, like dogwoods, red maples, crape myrtles, and a few others already have some decent spotty colors, especially on the tips, but almost nothing so far. A good many leaves have fallen but no color. I'm sure there will be some leaves that will change overnight in November but this is so stinkin depressing. Models in 10-15 day range still show no real fall weather. This is just unreal.

Not usually, but I'll bet it's right on the money this time. I know it is basically a printout of the GFS, but man that thing is a hot garbage can for us and it seems to be correct with the never coming cool down

I'm gonna need some support. TWC latest says I don't get below 65 for the next 15 days and all next week I'm mid 80s. This is turning into a fall nightmare. I mean, seriously dude, enough is enough.

Very interesting data, thanks for posting. I'm actually shocked GMU made it all the way to 10/13 without a sub 60 in 2005. You are correct that GSP had a 59 back in August, and many outlying areas went lower and had more than one night. I had 2 or 3 mornings below 60 with the lowest 54 here in Easley, the only brush of fall so far! But this is just craziness. Has AVL ever had a Sept that never got below 60? I would be beyond shocked.

Well so much for this. The front has been delayed now until the 8th on the 6z. And this is the problem, the carrot has been out front since mid Sept and we're no closer now than we were then. If the TWC two week outlook verifies there will be no lows below 60 for GSP through 10/10, the duration of the forecast. I'd put money there's never been a year where GSP didn't drop below 60 during the period from Sept 1-Oct 10. The averages for Oct 15 at GSP is 72/50. While we officially had a couple mornings in late August in the 50s, we could well go almost the first half of met fall without ever dropping below 60, let that sink in. Even AVL hasn't dropped below 61 this month!

Long range GFS continues to push much cooler air down and finally through the area Oct 5th. Many areas would be low 60s / mid 50s for highs with 40s for lows and even some 30s high elevation verbatim. Long way off, 240 +, and GFS has been showing a pattern changing cool down since early Sept, literally, so don't get too excited, but it as been there for quite a few runs, minus one last night. Man we are due!

Almost a non-event in my area! Breezy yesterday, but never more than 15-20 mph, and less than inch of rain, and its pretty much over here. Fine with me though, tired of rain, less clean up, READY FOR FALL!!!

GFS continues to show a cool down around 24/25th, even showing some 50s and even 40s at night. I don't believe it for a sec, it's been showing 12 day cool downs all month and not one has even come close to happening. If it doesn't, this may go down as the first September I ever remember without even a hint of Fall. How miserable that would be! Surely there is at least one day of 70s/50s for non mtns, somewhere!

That IS weird, slams into MYB at hour 132 then tracks over FLO to CLT to AVL to TYS. Almost a hint of Diana you guys were just talking about with the loop/double cross!

It is a hard call and really is a no win situation. It is looking more and more like SC will be spared the worse, but based on the forecasts and possibility of a SC landfall you kinda have to male the call, and make it far enough ahead of time for people to plan and act. If it indeed keeps trending NE and farther away, there will be LOTS of frustrated people complaining about "having to evacuate for no reason", and "the forecasters are never right", etc, but of course the same people would be yelling the loudest if it actually hit and there had been no prep. Those people think weather is actually predictable and that forecasters should truly KNOW what it's going to do. He probably could have waited another 24 hours, but is obviously trying to err on the side of caution.

I know everybody is all Florence right now, but I've gotten a heck of a lotta rain this week. Four days straight with storms, two yesterday, and a big line moving through now. I was enjoying my week or two without it but here we go again, I'll never get my yard cut. I'm so ready for some COOL and DRY weather!

I would think so too, the NE trend with canes is like the NW trend with winter systems, not quite a guarantee but pretty close. With 3 days still to go and a strengthening system I still would think a scrape to OTS is still in the cards, or even a delmarva hit.

Are you guys thinking the ridge is stronger than modeled? It seems 98% of these go farther North and East in the days leading up to a potential landfall. A few exceptions, but few and far between. Already the forecast track cone has shifted significantly since yesterday morning, from as far south as Jacksonville Fl to about Hilton Head now, with the center over Wilmington. I'm thinking this will probably be another Outer Banks scraper or even near miss OTS (hopefully).