Iceagewhereartthou

I might just throw a party to celebrate this one! Been a great game so far, need to finish em off!

Yet Raleigh still gets more than the upstate

If another Carolina Crusher happens I'll certainly be crushed!

Times 999,999,999,999,999...!!!!

"Now I, now I know I wish would snow down, down on me Oooooh... yes I wish would snow, snow down on me now..."

"Don't your feet get cold in the Wintertime The sky won't snow and the sun won't shine It's hard to tell the nighttime from the day Losin` all your highs and lows Ain't it funny how the feelin` goes away..."

Well best of luck to all the coastal peeps, to be sure, they don't get a lot of chances, especially below Wilmington. Gotta say though, it will be tough to swallow, for us piedmont peeps, to get skipped on two storms so far. Many to my West and SW got the big one last time and many to my East and SE May get this one. I know there is a lot of winter left but we won't be cold forever and the piedmont would like some snow too please... ...ok, Mother Nature?

This is about where I am honestly, except I got min from that snow. The models have been so wrong with all those systems its is indeed frustrating. I am slowly coming to terms that there will be no snow with the current pattern. The one good thing is the cold. If it's not going to snow, at least give me some cold so it can feel like winter! I get sick of all the 60s and 70s we've been having the last couple winters, at least now I can actually wear a jacket. I don't get all the people wanting to wear shorts the whole winter then complaining because it won't snow. Only problem with the cold is GSP is either not impressed, their being conservative, or its looking pretty "meh". They've raised my temps several degrees for next week since yesterday. Looking at highs in upper 30s to low 40s, lows upper teens to low 20s. Not bad, below normal, but nothing to write home about.

This is exactly why I hated getting the short end of the December snow. We only get a few legitimate shots regardless if it's solar winter or not. While I think we'll get a couple more shots after the upcoming pattern change, that could ironically have been our best shot this winter.

CJ from WYFF just jumped ship for Friday system, it takes a lot for him to jump. I'm still not ready to call that one till tomorrow evening though, already we're seeing some correction NW on some models. However, we are quickly losing out on this colder pattern of opportunity. At one time there were pretty good signals for a Christmas system; kaput! Weak signal for 27th; no dice. Big consensus for 29th; sun is setting. Big dog for New year's; fat lady on stage. We could very soon be a quick 0-4 and running out of cold!

I was just looking at that, 2.1 inches on the 12th, will soon be 4 years. That's hard to believe even for CAE. It either has to be a perfect or a freaky setup for you guys. You also got 2.1 that January so 4.2 that year, but that is it going back to Dec 2012 ; 5 years. So an average of .84 per year For comparison, GSP has only had 20.6 during that time frame, or just 4.12 per year, so we're not knocking it out of the park either. Been a rough go in the state for sure.

I haven't seen snow in awhile, think it's just the proverbial 33 and rain, May not even be sleet anymore. Oh well maybe a half inch of mess here at my place, better than nothing!

Pretty map but so far we have some major problems in the upstate. Temps are basically steady in mid 40s and we have a flaming 925 level. Add to that the bulk coming through in the middle of the daytime and we don't have a good recipe. And don't forget, western upstate NEGA are always the last ones to benefit from CAA coming over the mtns, there's a reason all the models are showing that minimum there.

This is my main concern as well. This scenario seems like our version of Groundhog Day. We start tracking, guidance shows cold is there, looks like we're on the northern fringe with no QPF, NW track commences, enter WWA, plenty of QPF, temps are a problem. Boundary level problems almost never resolve unless we have crazy low wetbulbs. This time we're already moist and cloudy with temps in mid 40s. I would almost bet 85 through the upstate doesn't get below about 37 or 36. And I've seen many times where rates don't overcome BL and ground temps.

Good post burrell, always like seeing your input. Your last part is a great description of the 2009 December storm, Mtns got a big one, including SC mtns, but is was just a cruel hair too warm below 2000 ft.Got a few sleet pellets mixed in in Taylors, but nothing else. That was tough one to swallow.Even though this is a different setup, it could have very similar results.

Well i was one of the lucky ones and got a good 3-3.5 here in Easley. My parents in Dacusville got 5.5! But yeah, just East of here missed on that one, but it all evens out, you guys got the Halloween snow a couple years ago and I didnt get a flake.

This image fits very well for what almost all guidance is showing (and with Climo) for the NEGA/Upstate/WNC crew. Warm buble over NEGA/Upstate with snow SW from there and snow over WNC mtns. Sort or an upside down banana of snow. This is climo and the look we see about 95% of the time. Always disappointing, but never surprising. Also for this area, we have timing going against us with the bulk coming in at the worst time of day. Needs to be 8 hours earlier or 8 hours later. With solar radiation it's very difficult to chip away at a warm BL or get much accum even if you do.

Some of the run to run comments on here are hilarious. Remember guys, in general: - Temps are a problem outside elevation 99% of the time with very few exceptions (Jan 88/ Jan 11) - The warm bubble you're seeing over NEGA and Upstate is climo (I know, I hate it too!). It doesn't always happen, but most of the time it will and nothing can be done about it. - There are always wobbles in track leading up to an event, and 95% of the time there are NW adjustments all the way up until go time. - Every model has had it's coup and it's fail, so hugging or jumping based on one model is a little silly. - DO NOT take accumulation maps verbatim! - Models are only tools, how many surprises have we seen the past few years no matter the model support? - Climo says a bust is way more likely than a pleasant surprise but a surprise is still possible. Don't over expect. - The vast majority of events outside elevation have mixing so expect that at your place if it's not all rain.

All I can see on these particular images is an SE ridge! I can't remember seeing such heavy snow THAT far south in Mexico then the 540 line goes though DELMARVA. Wow at that buckle!

Talk about you're I-85 special!

You guys are a lot better at this than me but this set up looks unusual to me. The low looks pretty good just off the SE coast, but our cold high feed is the 1033 in northern, Mexico, n`est pas? I guess the 1044 over Idaho is a reinforcing cold feed, but that seems too far. It seems we need that 1033 about 1000 miles NE. Then we have our infamous great lakes low. On the 78 hour frames we have 3 lows that look well placed and about the right strength. So we have 2 highs, one that seems too far South, one that seems too far West, 2 upper Midwest lows, and 3 SE lows. With all that change in pressures, why are not seeing more wind, and with 3 lows a lot more moisture? Any good analogues for this set up?

You're killing me Smalls.

Except for 4 days in Jan, this is the most depressing and pathetic winter of all-time! Might as well be in Key West.

Awesome! Now with that snowpack we just need a big NAO block, a huge reinforcing dump of cold air, and an active STJ with multiple slow moving weak lows delivering over- running events and we would be epic! Instead we'll get 60s for 2 weeks .

We're going to have to move to Greenville, NC, I do think it's become the new Asheville over the past ten years! Trying to get a decent snow in the upstate anymore is like trying to get a date with a pretty girl back in high school. You always have built up hopes, but eventually reality slaps you in the face and you're left with nothing but lonely heartbreak.