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Iceagewhereartthou

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Everything posted by Iceagewhereartthou

  1. Iceagewhereartthou
    Can you do GSP?
  2. Iceagewhereartthou
    This remains my concern, a la Feb 2014. VERY similar feel to this storm for the upstate; long duration, high QPF, marginal temps, colder trend on approach, buy in from all models. But come storm time, mostly sleet and zr. WAA was stronger and faster than anticipated. In fact we've mentioned that many times in our post storm "what did we learn" threads, to watch out for WAA, despite the idea that wedges can be strong and stubborn. That's how I see the upstate here, probably all sleet and zr, except favored areas closer to the border. Hoping for a colder surprise though. Actually what I would wish for is the I-20 corridor to be play. Altruistically because Eastern ATL to CAE is due, and selfishly so it would move me in the colder part and I could be mostly snow with plenty of wiggle room!
  3. Iceagewhereartthou
    That's what HAS to happen for us periphery peeps (upstate, Clt, Rdu, Nega) to get much wintry stuff. If that is accurate and the push continues, look out. And we all know GFS is terrible with this at this range.
  4. Iceagewhereartthou
    To me it looks like they're trying to phase. I think we want them to stay separated. I think the energy wants to consolidate thus, yes, pulling our wave a bit north. I dunno, maybe not..Grit?
  5. Iceagewhereartthou
    Guys I may be off but I think the GFS always has trouble with our systems about 4 or 5 days out. I think it has a particular weakness projecting how the S/w is going to act once it gets onshore. Thinking back through other storms it seems to be all over the place about this same time, then seems to be pretty close by about 48-72 hours out. Remember, it also like to suppress, overcorrect north, then suppress a bit more late in the game. Not too worried about the GFS yet BUT, much of the suite tonight looks to be going with a slightly weaker high anchor, a farther north LP, and resultant trimming of peripheral totals. That's actually climo. Best expectation now is mtns getting nice storm, maybe very big, then NW Piedmont- central NC- eastern/central upstate, etc, in that order for the next best chances.
  6. Iceagewhereartthou
    Feb 2014. Local Mets calling for 8-12, with one or two going 8-14. Euro showing 14-18 at go time. Warm nose. Sleetfest. ZR. 3 inches max!
  7. Iceagewhereartthou
    24 inch line coming down to HWY 11 in SC there. Burrell, Oconeeman, and me with 20, Lookout getting buried, Mack getting the shaft with 16... man, I LOVE this model!
  8. Iceagewhereartthou
    That's the most realistic map I've seen yet. I-40 north with best chance, Wake gets some fun, upstate gets blanked. Does Vegas take weather bets?
  9. Iceagewhereartthou
    Buy both, keep your receipts, take the unused one back
  10. Iceagewhereartthou
    That bubble is absolutely intolerable and always shows up. It's basically a product of that area being surrounded; NE, N, NW, and W of higher mtns, PLUS, being so far west of the CAD highs, it literally takes forever to cool off. It usually results in a ton more mixing or even just rain. It's maddening to be in that and get next to nothing while everyone around can get a lot. Did you notice the snow home over Lake Jocassee on the clown map? 2-4 while just a few miles east in the 20+! Hopefully the cold press will be stronger and close that gap up!
  11. Iceagewhereartthou
    Yeah, those counties and western upstate and NEGA seem to always have heartbreak with these CAD setups. By the time the cold gets this far SW the precip has passed and everybody to our north and east gets the big snows. It's really hard to take in the Ellicott rock area.
  12. Iceagewhereartthou
    Cool graphic, thanks for posting. It's retreating pretty fast until that last frame, then appears to retrograde a bit. I would be interested to see the frames for Sat and Sun when they come out. The wetbulbs on this map are colder than the dps on the other map for Sat. That can only happen if the dps really plummet on Sat, or the wetbulbs really shoot up. Wetbulbs can't be colder than dps.
  13. Iceagewhereartthou
    Yes. What the upstate and NEGA needs is for those upper teens in WNC to bleed our way. With dps in the mid to upper 20s our wetbulbs would likely be above freezing, so we'd get just cold rain or a melting slop that never accumulates.
  14. Iceagewhereartthou
    This matches up almost exactly like the snowfall output maps we're seeing from the GFS and Euro right now. This map doesn't bring the lower DP s into the upstate or SC, and the snowfall maps (op clown maps, not ensemble means) are almost an exact match, with any real accums stopping at the boarder. Remember, in the SE (especially outside elevation) cold is ALWAYS the first consideration. Needs these dews in the teens to come further south and west for any real chance for most.
  15. Iceagewhereartthou
    Thanks. Way down for the upstate unfortunately, moved north.
  16. Iceagewhereartthou
    Map?
  17. Iceagewhereartthou
    You could come to my house, I only get a trace of ice and an inch and a half of snow
  18. Iceagewhereartthou
    30-36 hours of pink in the upstate; is that sleet or zr? Anyone have the zr map from this run?
  19. Iceagewhereartthou
    Boy a cruel cuttoff for us Oconee, Pickens, Greenville county peeps if that verifies! Unfortunately, that happens often.
  20. Iceagewhereartthou
    HP and LP in good tandem at 108, but LP looks like is getting to amped to me, closes off then. HP at 1040.
  21. Iceagewhereartthou
    S/w goes from being closed at 72 to almost being sheared out at 90, then looks like it really flares up around Dallas at 102.
  22. Iceagewhereartthou
    I believe it's also further north, didn't the 18z come ashore in mid Baja?
  23. Iceagewhereartthou
    That's crazy honestly, I can't remember seeing means like that at this lead before. Almost all the panels show significant snowfall, although I am sure most of that, at least for CLT and GSP would be mix. Crazier still, is how the op runs have basically left GSP with all rain; how can the op's and ensembles be so different? Something for everyone to keep in mind, in a setup like this with very marginal cold, timing and placement are the whole show; even more than usual when we have better cold air sources. Speed up or slow down one player, 50 miles here or there for placement, or a couple mbs of pressure up or down will change the model outputs tremendously; even up till go time. I certainly wouldn't expect it, but it's very possible a nick here or tuck there could change our output back to a colder suppressed look; it wouldn't take a whole lot. Too early to be jumping ship, even though tempered expectations are wise.
  24. Iceagewhereartthou
    High gets pushed out after 126, way too warm, even mtns mostly a mix. Terrible run there!
  25. Iceagewhereartthou
    Looks good, just a stronger NE high!
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