Iceagewhereartthou

Well what we're pretty sure of: - An LP will bring significant amount of QPF into the SE next weekend - There are several key ingredients in play for a winter storm somewhere in our area > S/W, HP somewhere to our north, early season cold - It's climo for some areas such as the high country of NC and VA, and early climo for adjacent areas. There are some other factors that appear to be going in our direction at this time, such as the relatively weak baja low, a bit of a 50/50 low, and possibility of 2 highs; one in the MW and one in the NE. And the fact that most models have been showing something wintry for a few days now. Some things to consider: The Baja to Jax track of a 1008ish LP with a 1035-1040 HP over Pen/NY (and another high over MN) would give most of the board the best chance for a decent storm (with timing considerations). Many of the model runs we have seen have shown deviations of that and even slight changes would yield nice results for some folks, while sticking it to others. This looks to be a high QPF scenario (we're usually trying to scrape a few tenths) with many areas possibly receiving 1-3 inches of it! With high QPF will come a HUGE bust factor based on the temp profile. Cold = big snow (or mix); not cold =big rain (big disappointment). Someone is likely to get a very nice dump out of this, but there will be big gradients in short distances and elevation changes, and lots of heartbreak. As always, NC Mtns and SW VA will have the best chances, and are in great shape for a nice storm. Next would be NC piedmont, Upstate, and NEGA, though the odds of serious mixing increase considerably even if those areas are fortunate. IF we get the trends we need, more folks will have a chance. Right now both the GFS and Euro Ensembles are pretty close (even though the OP runs are wildly different) which I think is pretty unuual at this point. Hope for the best but expect cold rain and we'll see what happens!

I've thought about that one also and that's not good for my neck. I was in Taylor's and saw a few sleet pellets mixed in with the cold rain. Caesars Head got close to a foot of snow- had to go up above about 2500 ft. Lower levels just a hair too warm. A tough one to take in the upstate, similar to last year in that regard. This one has that type of solution written all over it unless that cold press is really strong. Pulling for suppression as long as possible, but it would be against the grain around the upstate.

Looks like FV3 is the only model that came in colder and further south. All others came further north and a little warmer. We'll have to watch today's runs to see if that continues. If so, that would likely indicate our NW trend, which this early, would be bad for non NC peeps. My guess is that is exactly what will happen as we approach game time; low will become more amped and/or cold press is less and this is an I77/40 West and elevation storm. That's climo anyway. Hopefully we see a return to the more southern and colder solution on runs today or tomorrow, but it's hard to get that once we start losing it.

I'd like to see that low 100 miles to the south and the high 100 miles SW at about 1038 or 1040.

Here's everyone on the board that gets left out come zero hour next weekend

Not to mention the mountains tend to set the trend for snow each year, and the storm trends tend to trend well for those folks!

GFS would absolutely suck for upstate, especially western upstate, but would be much more climatologically likely. Most of NC gets good snowfall while western upstate gets almost nothing, with eastern upstate getting in on the cold before moisture ends. That's about par for the course.

That's about as bullish as GSP ever gets, and I don't ever remember that much confidence 6-7 days out. That surprises me at this stage.

I also agree with that. And the infamous NW trend, though not universal, is climo, so I think most want to see that suppression continue for the next couple days at least. It's going to be a crazy week of watching to say the least, with some mega mood swings in this thread!

That almost seems like an impossible scenario anymore. I guess we did pretty well with Jan 11 storm, but of course our standard is Jan 88. While those totals are pure fantasy, it would be awesome to see a double digit snowfall again, it's been decades for us! Defintiely need this Miller A scenario to happen. Unfortunately, we have to temper ourselves with this being so far out. What are the odds the setup we're seeing today (almost perfect for us) actually verifies? Extremely small I would think. Nevertheless, pretty cool to see so many big dog solutions from various models.

Wow, one clown map is bigger than the next! This one will either go down in antiquity or in infamy... but which will it be? I have dreams of seeing one storm like that in my lifetime... just once. That aside, it's hard not to get excited about the runs over the past 24 hours.

That's fine AS LONG AS SOMEONE BEATS CLEMSON! Into the ground! MERCILESSLY!

If you look closely you can see that butterfly in Washington State flapping its wings a little too quickly; really need that thing to wait until that low off Alaska moves a bit closer! Sorry, couldn't resist!

Jan 88, what was that... a flurry or something? Wow, as pretty as that is its kinda sad our new "state of the art" model can print something like that out, it really is DGEX like, almost comical. If only!

Good to see you. Yeah, I'm trying to stay realistic despite all the clown maps, looks like we'd be on the edge as usual. I am liking our pattern as well though. Even though I tire of all the cold rain, you have to think we'll get some good shots this year, even at a big dog, if the November pattern holds.

Verbatim this run is a real mixed mess for the NW upstate. Liitle snow at front to mix to ice - maybe a couple inches total of mess. That line is really close to 85 as usual - that high needs to trend a little stronger and hang around a little longer. As always, Pickens/Oconee right on the line! Caution for everyone, wouldn't be surprised to see models lose this (especially North) over the next couple of days. If that happens as usual, don't panic just yet, there will be tons of changes ove the next week and who knows how this will acutally play out. Hearing a lot of reminders about CAD being underforecasted and that does happen a lot, but NOT ALWAYS, so don't count on it automatically. Incidentally, today's CAD was underforecasted, so far at least. High for me was 56, only made it to 50 so far. Is Burrel, Wow, or Lookout on here yet, would like to hear your thoughts!

Don't worry, that particular solution would be a spirit crusher for the upstate too. Too warm for the first piece of energy, too far west for the coastal low! I think we all have the best chance with the slower lower Miller A look. As someone else mentioned, need that low to be low and weak - track around or just off the gulf coast at about 1010 or 1008, need that high to stay put.

If that were to happen it would would be awesome for NC, but would SUCK if you're in SC, which I am. Another dec 2009 for western areas.

GSP down to 21 this morning, 18.5 here, not bad for Nov.

Well living in the upstate we spend a lot of time at the bottom of the cliff!

Sign me up too. I'm hesitantly optimistic about this winter, but I'm concerned about the cold as usual. Doesn't look like anything very cold coming down the pike over the next two weeks or so, I'm only forecast to go below freezing once. That's ok now but by then I'm hoping to see better cold signs. Kinda bummed we're not getting a piece of the cold for tomorrow in the NE.

That's amazing; 64 and not a cloud in the sky here . I need to move to the mountains!

Try GSP sometime! CLT gets more than us bc you're closer to CAD s, closer to Atlantic moisture from Noreasters, and gets better timing with overrunning events, even though we're slightly higher elevation and only like 20 miles further south. GSP is a freaking snowhole for the ages compared to everyone around us (except south of course). For that CAE gets the dubious honor.

I don't think ponds freezing over are that rare north of 85 or so. I can think of a number of years where the ponds around here froze; 2017, 2015, 2014, 2011, 2010, just this decade. Of course it may only last a couple days at a time, but it's not unusual. Last year was unusual just b/c the duration and thickness, and because some rivers even started freezing.

I wanted chime in here, I'm getting a new station. I did a lot of research on these and its hard to get much below $100, but I found one I'm going to try. I had an Accurite 3 in 1 which was about $80. I loved the display, but after about a year and a half the outside unit stopped sending. I called and was told I'd have to purchase another one. After researching, this seems to be a very common issue with the Accurites. This time I looked at units under $200 and the Ambient 2902a gets great reviews everywhere. https://www.amazon.com/Ambient-Weather-WiFi-Station/dp/B01N5TEHLI/ref=mp_s_a_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1542301144&sr=8-1&pi=AC_SX236_SY340_FMwebp_QL65&keywords=ambient+weather+ws-2902a This is a 5 in 1with all the features, including internet access and a wunderground site. I decided I probably wont do all that so they also have a ws-1900 for half the price. All the same hardware but without the internet software. https://www.ambientweather.com/amws1900.html So I can't speak first hand on this one, but this is the one I'm going with for the under 100 range.