Iceagewhereartthou

HP and LP in good tandem at 108, but LP looks like is getting to amped to me, closes off then. HP at 1040.

S/w goes from being closed at 72 to almost being sheared out at 90, then looks like it really flares up around Dallas at 102.

I believe it's also further north, didn't the 18z come ashore in mid Baja?

That's crazy honestly, I can't remember seeing means like that at this lead before. Almost all the panels show significant snowfall, although I am sure most of that, at least for CLT and GSP would be mix. Crazier still, is how the op runs have basically left GSP with all rain; how can the op's and ensembles be so different? Something for everyone to keep in mind, in a setup like this with very marginal cold, timing and placement are the whole show; even more than usual when we have better cold air sources. Speed up or slow down one player, 50 miles here or there for placement, or a couple mbs of pressure up or down will change the model outputs tremendously; even up till go time. I certainly wouldn't expect it, but it's very possible a nick here or tuck there could change our output back to a colder suppressed look; it wouldn't take a whole lot. Too early to be jumping ship, even though tempered expectations are wise.

High gets pushed out after 126, way too warm, even mtns mostly a mix. Terrible run there!

Looks good, just a stronger NE high!

Well what we're pretty sure of: - An LP will bring significant amount of QPF into the SE next weekend - There are several key ingredients in play for a winter storm somewhere in our area > S/W, HP somewhere to our north, early season cold - It's climo for some areas such as the high country of NC and VA, and early climo for adjacent areas. There are some other factors that appear to be going in our direction at this time, such as the relatively weak baja low, a bit of a 50/50 low, and possibility of 2 highs; one in the MW and one in the NE. And the fact that most models have been showing something wintry for a few days now. Some things to consider: The Baja to Jax track of a 1008ish LP with a 1035-1040 HP over Pen/NY (and another high over MN) would give most of the board the best chance for a decent storm (with timing considerations). Many of the model runs we have seen have shown deviations of that and even slight changes would yield nice results for some folks, while sticking it to others. This looks to be a high QPF scenario (we're usually trying to scrape a few tenths) with many areas possibly receiving 1-3 inches of it! With high QPF will come a HUGE bust factor based on the temp profile. Cold = big snow (or mix); not cold =big rain (big disappointment). Someone is likely to get a very nice dump out of this, but there will be big gradients in short distances and elevation changes, and lots of heartbreak. As always, NC Mtns and SW VA will have the best chances, and are in great shape for a nice storm. Next would be NC piedmont, Upstate, and NEGA, though the odds of serious mixing increase considerably even if those areas are fortunate. IF we get the trends we need, more folks will have a chance. Right now both the GFS and Euro Ensembles are pretty close (even though the OP runs are wildly different) which I think is pretty unuual at this point. Hope for the best but expect cold rain and we'll see what happens!

I've thought about that one also and that's not good for my neck. I was in Taylor's and saw a few sleet pellets mixed in with the cold rain. Caesars Head got close to a foot of snow- had to go up above about 2500 ft. Lower levels just a hair too warm. A tough one to take in the upstate, similar to last year in that regard. This one has that type of solution written all over it unless that cold press is really strong. Pulling for suppression as long as possible, but it would be against the grain around the upstate.

Looks like FV3 is the only model that came in colder and further south. All others came further north and a little warmer. We'll have to watch today's runs to see if that continues. If so, that would likely indicate our NW trend, which this early, would be bad for non NC peeps. My guess is that is exactly what will happen as we approach game time; low will become more amped and/or cold press is less and this is an I77/40 West and elevation storm. That's climo anyway. Hopefully we see a return to the more southern and colder solution on runs today or tomorrow, but it's hard to get that once we start losing it.

I'd like to see that low 100 miles to the south and the high 100 miles SW at about 1038 or 1040.

Here's everyone on the board that gets left out come zero hour next weekend

Not to mention the mountains tend to set the trend for snow each year, and the storm trends tend to trend well for those folks!

GFS would absolutely suck for upstate, especially western upstate, but would be much more climatologically likely. Most of NC gets good snowfall while western upstate gets almost nothing, with eastern upstate getting in on the cold before moisture ends. That's about par for the course.

That's about as bullish as GSP ever gets, and I don't ever remember that much confidence 6-7 days out. That surprises me at this stage.

I also agree with that. And the infamous NW trend, though not universal, is climo, so I think most want to see that suppression continue for the next couple days at least. It's going to be a crazy week of watching to say the least, with some mega mood swings in this thread!

That almost seems like an impossible scenario anymore. I guess we did pretty well with Jan 11 storm, but of course our standard is Jan 88. While those totals are pure fantasy, it would be awesome to see a double digit snowfall again, it's been decades for us! Defintiely need this Miller A scenario to happen. Unfortunately, we have to temper ourselves with this being so far out. What are the odds the setup we're seeing today (almost perfect for us) actually verifies? Extremely small I would think. Nevertheless, pretty cool to see so many big dog solutions from various models.

Wow, one clown map is bigger than the next! This one will either go down in antiquity or in infamy... but which will it be? I have dreams of seeing one storm like that in my lifetime... just once. That aside, it's hard not to get excited about the runs over the past 24 hours.

That IS weird, slams into MYB at hour 132 then tracks over FLO to CLT to AVL to TYS. Almost a hint of Diana you guys were just talking about with the loop/double cross!

It is a hard call and really is a no win situation. It is looking more and more like SC will be spared the worse, but based on the forecasts and possibility of a SC landfall you kinda have to male the call, and make it far enough ahead of time for people to plan and act. If it indeed keeps trending NE and farther away, there will be LOTS of frustrated people complaining about "having to evacuate for no reason", and "the forecasters are never right", etc, but of course the same people would be yelling the loudest if it actually hit and there had been no prep. Those people think weather is actually predictable and that forecasters should truly KNOW what it's going to do. He probably could have waited another 24 hours, but is obviously trying to err on the side of caution.

I would think so too, the NE trend with canes is like the NW trend with winter systems, not quite a guarantee but pretty close. With 3 days still to go and a strengthening system I still would think a scrape to OTS is still in the cards, or even a delmarva hit.

Are you guys thinking the ridge is stronger than modeled? It seems 98% of these go farther North and East in the days leading up to a potential landfall. A few exceptions, but few and far between. Already the forecast track cone has shifted significantly since yesterday morning, from as far south as Jacksonville Fl to about Hilton Head now, with the center over Wilmington. I'm thinking this will probably be another Outer Banks scraper or even near miss OTS (hopefully).

I truly am happy for the NC folks but this has been one of the most painful winters for snow ever in SC! On the edge of two big events squeezed out a couple inches each for the upstate but the only real snow in SC this year hit the coast. Everything else has been just above the state line and NC just keeps getting it, with even NEGA having done way better. Even though I expect the short end here in the upstate, this has been a hard one to take. Everything has overperformed... for everyone else. Watching NC this winter makes me feel like I'm back in high school, watching all the other guys get all the dates...

GSP to CLT to CAE triangle really got the shaft this year. Just about everybody else got their average or way above (CHS, coastal areas, even gulf coast). CAE is really in a drought and I feel for those guys. By the time they get their next shot it will be going on 5 years since their last measurable snowfall. The upstate has really gotten the short end though last few years as well.

Just becoming too hard to get snow in the upstate, let alone in March. Is there even a single model run showing any blue at all into the upstate? On every map I've seen the SC border snow wall is in full force. Heck, it's already happened this week, snow showers all the way to the border on Wed, then nothing.

Total vent here but this weather has put me in a rather foul mood. Cleaning out the garage today and having to put up with sweatiness, bugs, pollen, humidity, and seeing everything thing come out and grow and thinking about all the yard work is just grotesque. If it was May or even April I could accept it but this is beyond ridiculous. Then seeing all my neighbors cutting grass, doing yard work, and walking their dogs in shorts whilst talking about how much they like is just insult to injury. THIS IS MISERABLE! I can't believe this has happened two Februarys in a row. Man, people west of the Mississippi are so freaking lucky.