Harry Perry

Makes sense considering the spread. Chances of an outlier verifying are relatively low.

Anyone notice the 12z HRRR? Maybe I’m late to the game but… final image of the run 12z Tuesday. 980 with lowering heights directly east. Moving nearly ENE through central Missouri into south central Illinois.

Kind of a crapshoot around these parts. Hoping later in the week brings something a little more noteworthy. Will be fun to watch the evolution of this storm though.

This storm is nothing but high hopes and dreams. Head over to - Winter 2023/24 Medium/Long Range Discussion and check the storm out after…

We’re still 4/5 days out. Too early to be throwing any solution out yet.

We are still SO far out - no one should have any expectations yet. It is nice to finally have something to watch though, and to have weenie maps is pure lust.

I could certainly see a redux of that storm being the outcome with this one if thermals are marginal.

He emphasized on the potential being there for something big and that a lot is to change in the coming days, which I agree with.

I think you’ll be pleasantly surprised.

Spring started today if you ask him.

Beautiful day on this side of the lake, 76° and very low humidity. Some models showing dew points jumping 20°+ degrees here tomorrow in only 6-10 hours time. Will be interesting to feel.

Steady rain, constant rumbling, occasional lightning, 102° hot tub… love to see/feel/hear it. Weather station has a 27mph wind gust, felt like more but lasted less than 5 seconds. Thoughts and prayers for the people camping near Chicago.

Willing to bet we will have some good rumblers with anvil crawlers and stratiform rain around our areas tonight.

Looks like the HRRR sniffed out something, but looks like garbage over this way for tonight. Wonder what the next SPC outlook will look like. Almost looks as though storms are firing along the higher dew point gradient from N IL points southeast into Indiana. Dare I say… this mornings bullshit in Indiana forked SWMI once again by working over the atmosphere creating a rather large cold-pool, and only slowly advanced that cold-pool NE into the area while better untapped air pushed into northern Indiana? Time will tell. Already cooling off here @79° and clear skies.

I would believe that’s the cap breaking. Just the vents in my truck lol.

Still a good cap here… lake breeze just pushed east of here.

you should see what I do for work

I fully expect to head to FireKeepers Casino in my typical Friday night fashion, drink 2-3 Crown Peach doubles, lose a few $$$ then on my way home hopefully be watching anvil-crawlers/constant lighting moving in from the west all to be finished off while sitting in the hot tub while it starts to storm. Also looks like the cold front won’t be moving through now until tomorrow morning, so kinda thinking we may be in for a pretty quiet afternoon and evening. 100% cloudy here at the moment with just the slightest trace of sun poking through - definitely not going to make it into the 90’s today, but with the later timing of the front the severe threat is kinda meh around here anyway. Just hoping for some good rollers and lots of lightning. Edit* Peaked at the 14z HRRR and chuckled.. shows a nasty local bow pushing through at around 80mph with large hail at 3am - sweet Looks pretty wicked in northern Illinois around 9PM though…

Heavy rain here, a little organization with the back side precip, would expect it to decay by late morning and hopefully get some filtered sun by noon.

I don’t know, not throwing the towel in yet, but I fully expect temps to be overdone at minimum today.. thus keeping instability tamed. This crapvection is naturally going to inhibit some of what could’ve been this afternoons potential. Also… that’s a ton of debris clouds - a good 6-8 hours worth moving ever so slowly east.

ILX always seems to have higher SBCAPE, lot of corn nearby? Some of the highest readings I’ve ever witnessed came from ILX where the dew points always seem to be higher than surrounding areas.

Wow is right.. hell of a sounding. Never know, tomorrows storm mode could start off with some SUPs, likely nothing like the Andover event but the ingredients are definitely there. Would expect a bump to ENH for most of us overnight and tornado probs increased a bit. I was looking at my local sounding and have a ton of hail matches. Hard pass on all of that nonsense.

It’s our time to shine.