Kevin Reilly

He’s looking at the NAM

Building SE Atlantic Ridge pumping west it appears and changes out west. I think 12z starts the trend remember Euro on Monday showing 6-10”. I mean the GEFS shows rain for some showing the block is allowing the storm north and the SE ridge guiding it further NW.

I was living in NE Philadelphia and the winds were howling down the driveways between row homes. One side was completely bare of snow maybe an inch the other side 5-6 foot drifts. I was 9 years old so snow was up to my waist and the drifts in some cases over my head. I remember the thunder and lighting and also the graupel mixing in with the snow while we had the lighting and low rumbling thunder. I think the next day under the strong Feb 12th sun it made it into the upper 30s. Almost like the storm mixed out the arctic air and replaced it with modified Atlantic air. Reason I say this last sentence because the air out there at 32 down here doesn’t feel Arctic anymore feels like modified Atlantic air that storm basically flipped every thing. looking over the models looks like a bit of a war setting up medium long range with the Southeast Ridge and cold coming back from Canada. Next two weeks could get interesting up and down the east coast with an awakening subtropical jet in play.

I wonder if that allows the southeast ridge to building sending out Souther miss Sunday back NW time will tell??

Steady snow falling in Media Delaware County 31 was 32

Is that sleet hitting your umbrella!!

Media Delaware County 30f light snow snow and sleet total here 7.1” not too bad for a Miller B.

Media Delaware County moderate snow humidity 91% dew-point 27 wind NNE 16 gusts to 32 maybe an additional 1 inch since change over at 2:20 pm

Media Delaware County sleet 30 windy NE 23 gusts to 38. 3.9” snow sleet on the ground

Media Delaware County 30 light sleet a few flakes sun was just out winds NE gusts on weather station 37 mph. Losing the sun as I speak.

Media Delaware County the sun is making an appearance so there is some dry air mixing around.

I was asleep what did the 6z gfs show and the 6z Nam I saw Euro come in and went way north for us souls in SE Pa.

Media Delaware County 29 breezy winds NE zip here a little freezing drizzle. Clouds racing NE to SW.

Media Delaware County 24 all sleet here guess the warming aloft is here.

Media Delaware County moderate snow big flakes 24 humidity 90% wind NE 16 3.1”

I’m not so sure even at that position the cold is locked in off a NNE wind funneling down the Delaware Valley. Think we stay all snow at this point.

That’s fine. I’m going with GFS Euro and Canadian over the NAM.... now the Nam has lower amounts too because of it showing sleet. It’s a warner bias dynamical model my thinking is the Nam is showing tremendous uplift and convection along the Delaware River. Instead of that being all sleet reality is 28 degrees thunder lightning and snow falling 2-3-4 inches an hour. It’s the only thing I can think of.

Basically 20” PHL to TTN center of storm sitting like 30 miles SE of Cape May.

That’s heading this way then I’ve noticed it’s gotten a lot darker here.

Media Delaware County Very light snow graupel mixed in 28 maybe .15 on grass mainly

GGEM too

12z icon focused I-95 Wilmington De to NYC now with 20”+

Light flurries have begun here in Media 28 humidity 57% dew point 12 wind east 11

Media Delaware County Cloudy 26 humidity 60% dew point 13 here sun seen dimly through high clouds SSE sky wind east 15 gotta shut that east wind down. I’ll go with 9-16” for center Delaware County.

Well the Nam trend is troubling that's all I will say its been consistent but it's so different than the other models I will wait and see.