Kevin Reilly

GGEM too

12z icon focused I-95 Wilmington De to NYC now with 20”+

Light flurries have begun here in Media 28 humidity 57% dew point 12 wind east 11

Media Delaware County Cloudy 26 humidity 60% dew point 13 here sun seen dimly through high clouds SSE sky wind east 15 gotta shut that east wind down. I’ll go with 9-16” for center Delaware County.

Well the Nam trend is troubling that's all I will say its been consistent but it's so different than the other models I will wait and see.

Euro

If anything the more trusted models ticked SE

Well looking at RGEM the 3k maybe moving towards it with all its banding.

Yea that’s the dynamical model that will show the finer details we are about 2 runs away from that right now.

At 18z the Nam will NAM us and all the other models will keep on keeping on while the Nam caves to the other models that’s how the I-95 Corridor north and west gets 12”+

Bingo!! It was more of a trivia question but that whole thing was a complete disaster of a storm even Paul Kocin got it wrong. I too am on edge due to that storm. Like snow is just going to appear on top of us feeling. Miller Bs are notorious for pulling the rug out DC Baltimore to PHL then your looking NE Pa and North Jersey to down east Maine getting pummeled while we have mood flakes and an East wind that goes NE the N then WNW in time. I am bracing for the disaster hoping for the best so yes I’m PSTD from 2001 and also knowing we are sitting at 7” total at the airport last two years.

Oh yea that storm we are getting 20”+ reality a few sprinkles sun poking out later in the day total accumulation zero!! That was a Miller B set up. Didn’t a meteorologist lose his job on that one?

Oh no I think we know sooner than that this clearly shifted NE this early morning we pretty much no what we are dealing with at 12z hard to tell if the trends will hold but there’s definitely bouncing around. The finer details get ironed out tonight at 0z but it looks like 10”+ I-95 N and W and N and NE this could move another 35-45 miles either way I think.

Wonder if there’s sleet in that I’m sure there is along i95

Euro will to good bye southwest bias

I’m fainting here in Media Delaware County lol

Hey Ralph we talked about the Euro bias earlier my under over on 0z Euro is 14” at PHL

3k Nam shows 2” lol???

Actually Avondale is about 51 miles SW of Bucks County. Avondale is about 18 miles West southwest of me here in Media

That map looks exactly almost to the inch of the Euro run from yesterday afternoon. I am most interested in Euro run tonight.

Ralph liked we talked about this morning it looks like the Euro is beginning to correct itself from its southwest bias? However no doubt about it tonight's 0z runs will for sure seal the deal and what the models show tonight Euro included is most likely going to be the final outcome minus the fine details. Oh and then we can start the discussion about banding, gravity waves, and also the all important snow ratios is it 10:1, 12:1, or 15:1? I am thinking in this set up probably looking at 12:1 or 13:1 or so.

On Water Vapor you can see the Push NE to SW up north of New England in SE Canada that is now being modeled now. Perhaps the models are picking up on the strength and timing of that feature.

So Ralph maybe it's not the Euro Bias here... perhaps we are heading for a disaster overall. May it's really windy out there right now there is your confluence.

Therefore my forecast for Delaware County and along the I-95 Corridor stands at a snowstorm is coming look for a general 8-12" (We can go up from there as needed)

Yep and I would think that this error would affect the entire run coast to coast due to all the physics involved falling apart like a domino effect all the way to the newly formed coastal low being too weak and too far east or southeast. Now the 6z Euro showing what appears to be a dual low structure which is often the case in a blocked system trying to move NE along the United States East Coast. I am very curious to see the Euro at 1:00 today I wonder if it starts correcting itself or continues to struggle. I wouldn't be surprised the Euro continues to struggle while the other models continue on continuing on. I bet the Euro doesn't start picking up the major storm idea again until the storm is passing through the southern Rockies.