Kevin Reilly

Euro just took extreme southeast pa where I am at from 7.3" to 0.7" with a stiff dry ene wind love these model runs today all of them we are totally back to normal winter in the Mid Atlantic at least we are tracking, and I am sure we are NOT DONE seeing more changes! This is where things are fun in my opinion. Let's bring on winter and I am just simply rooting for anyone that has not received snow the past few years and that is most.

looks very similar to the Euro.... up here in Southeast PA I would say loss of liquid available will be made up by snow ratio rates.

Currently 54f quite warm still. Overnight rain 9:00 pm to midnight 0.30" winds during frontal passage last night gusted to 37 mph with the heavy rain. Rainfall Total last 3 days: 1.18" Changes are in sight. This time next week it very well could be snowing enjoy the warmth while it is here because soon it will be exiting stage right and off to the Northeast to begin to set up our block needed for very cold weather and potential for snowstorms between January 5th to 17th.

Just had a line go through pretty intense 30 mph winds heavy wind driven downpours

Currently 58f Windy winds SSW gusting 25-30 mph. High today was 65f Sprinkles right now Total rainfall today: Trace

Have seen a couple of storms down Southwest of the Baja moving west. I was looking at the water vapor last night and one such low was moving west out there.

Looks to me we had an energy split one piece south tornadoes across the south another piece went northwest of us we caught in the middle

Honestly looks like a cruising system dropping out of Canada carving out a trough clipper esque

Could be the typical have the storm lose the storm while we track something closer in time. Weren't the earlier runs of the GFS last week keying in on January 5th to 7th might just be a timing thing.

It's amazing we will finish as you say: "We will finish the year not too far from normal annual rainfall." Yet Springton Reservoir down here in Central Delaware County is down 20 feet. Now with that said with our past 0.88" here and what is to come into the 15 of January I am willing to bet the tables have turned big time. I am going out on a limb here I think we see 2.5-3.5" liquid between today, December 29th and Wednesday, Jaunary 15th. I will also go with 8-14" of snow still in that time.

Yea higher snow ratios and you double this amount and, in some cases, triple it; with the type of cold that is coming high ratio snow is on the table for sure.

Currently 55f cloudy the sun did make an appearance for about 5 minutes. Total rainfall from last storm: 0.88" (dumped the gauge for round 2 later today / will dump the gauge for round 3 later this week) Looks like a busted forecast down there in south Florida in Cape Coral where my friend lives. A tropical low got started last evening and dumped 2-4" of rain area wide to Naples. Low just made landfall 5 miles north of Naples and is headed east-northeast. The forecast for Cape Coral a few showers .10" at 2:00 pm. Reality winds gusting past 40 mph for a few hours last night and 2-4" of rain. Just gives you an idea that the STJ may be getting going so one of our ingredients to look forward to down the line. Blown forecasts to our south sometimes can lead to huge implications winter storm wise up this way at times.

All the reasons why when we get a 20"+ storm it is a Special Event!

Fluff factor / snow ratio more cold less liquid more snow.

Heavy drizzle 47f humidity 99% dew point 46f total rainfall: 0.51”

I’ll take 973 mb storm for 1000 Alex

Lots of upward motions thunderstorms with heavy sleet. That storm there is a historic classic storm.

Storm total at PHL was 31”

That actually was 1/7/96-1/8/96

46f low clouds, fog, drizzle Total rainfall so far 0.49"

Umm wow the three hour change pretty remarkable temp rise from 33.2 dewpoint 25 to 39.5 dewpoint 33 light to moderate rain now falling.

Bring that to the Baja across northern Mexico or along the border to southeast Texas then move to Fort Walton beach and combine with a northern branch system southeast of Atlanta Georgia then crawl northward to Ocean City Md then ease out to sea to the NE.

33.2f dewpoint actually fell to 25f skies clear to partly cloudy. Waiting for: 1. Rain 2. Warm 3. Cold 4. Snow

screams rain to snow event 2-4" / 3-5"

Thinking back to the ensembles from a few days ago. Honestly, I think it gets busy in here starting sooner rather than later say this Saturday into Sunday.