sussexcountyobs

As per Mt. Holly 11am update Storm Details: Timing... In stark contrast to the system earlier this week, this will be a quick hitter with most of the precipitation being in and out of the area in about 12 hours. Precipitation should begin working into the area from SW-NE around 06-09Z with precipitation reaching far NW areas by 12-15Z. The system`s departure will also be rapid with precipitation largely ending from SW-NE between 18-21Z. Precipitation Types... Unlike the previous two significant winter events we had, there will not be a cold/dry antecedent airmass in place when precipitation begins early Sunday morning. Rather a "stale" airmass characterized by temperatures in the low 30s and dewpoints in the upper 20s/lower 30s will be in place. Additionally the heaviest snowfall will likely occur during the daytime hours, which while not overly significant in early February, can limit accumulations somewhat. The one pro for snowfall accumulations will be the intensity of lift within the aforementioned FGEN band, and dynamical cooling within this band should nudge temperatures down. Given all these factors, expect that areas NW of I-95 will see nearly all snow, areas near I-95 will likely see mostly snow, but could see some rain mix in at times (particularly when rates are low), with some mixing likely in southern Delmarva and the Coastal Plain of NJ. Given that we won`t really have a CAD setup in place think significant sleet is unlikely, although right at ptype transition zones we could see it briefly mix in. Snow Amounts... A very challenging forecast given uncertainties in both the northward extent of QPF, and the southward extent of accumulating snowfall. After a consistent northward/more amplified trend Thursday, there has been a bit of "windshield wipering" the last couple cycles with the low`s placement and thus the resulting placement of QPF/snowfall. The latest consensus is a low positioned a bit further SE of the 18Z suite`s consensus, which would place the I-95 corridor in the sweet spot of this event (i.e. the intersection of sufficiently cold profiles and sufficiently high QPF) and the current placement of the winter storm warning reflects this. However, any northward shifts would likely cut snow amounts (due to increased mixing) near and SE of I-95 while bumping up amounts in the NW, with the converse happening with a any southern shifts. But, assuming a perfect prog, amounts in the 4-7 inch range look likely in the vicinity of the I-95 corridor with 3-5 inch amounts buffering this on either side (where advisories are in place). The most significant modifications to the snowfall forecast with this package was near the coast, where a mix with rain looks likely and amounts will largely be under 2 inches. It should be noted that there is the potential for higher snowfall amounts within the band (where rates may approach 2 inches an hour), but would like to really get in the CAMs temporal wheelhouse (e.g. <24 hours) before increasing amounts further.

My forecast hasn't waivered since early yesterday morning. 3-5". We are only under WWA. I'd be happy with just 2" honestly. That would put me at 50" for the season. Plus, after this storm we have at least 3 snow potentials in the next week and a half. By mid February, I will maybe be at 60" or above. With 2nd half of February and all of March to go.

Can you imagine if Upton, or Mt. Holly changed their advisories or snow totals on every new model run that comes out every couple hours? The public's confusion would be epic. They would probably just be dismissed as pathetic. I know I would dismiss them. That's why they don't do it. Let's see what they say on the afternoon update.

As per NWS @3:23 am Winter Storm watch is cancelled for coastal Ocean Co. NJ Snowfall in those areas will be under 2"

Yes, I did but no matter what you or I wish for, it doesn't affect what mother nature will do. LOL

For my area I always want it to be rain from southeast NJ to eastern Long Island.

Snowing at home and here in Paterson, NJ

Believe it or not we are still getting snow showers here. 26°

Can't believe it's still snowing. 23°

It has been snowing for about 52 hrs non stop. Haven't seen that in a long time, or ever that I can remember.

We're at 47" for the year here so far after this storm. Getting light accumulating snow as we speak.

Picked up about 1.25" today with the steady light snow that hasn't stopped for one minute all day today. Now with sun down and temps below freezing it is sticking to street which was salted. From 11 am to 3pm it wasn't sticking to street. 28°

Yes. Picked up another 1" since sunrise. 28" storm total so far. Steady light snow/ blowing snow 30°

Mod-heavy snow continues. 25.8

Where the hell do you live bro?

9:20 pm Measured 25.9" Mod snow falling 25.7° Will not measure again till morning.

Hawthorne, NJ?

Damn! How much accumulates there tomorrow?

Need 4.5" more to hit 30" tonight. I feel confident.

Already there. Just measured 25.3" at 8:30 pm with mod - heavy snow falling. 24•

What? We've had about 6" of new snow since 4pm.

7 :45 pm Measured 24" Very heavy snow falling. 24°

That's actually good. No big plow pile in front of your drive6.

7 pm measurement 22.5" Heavy snow falling 23.8°

Now that makes more sense. Good for them. Glad to see the city folk cashing in.