GaWx

Bump to show that as far back as this 0Z 10/14 (Sun evening) run, the UKMET (ignore strength because strength this far out is not a strength of the UK) was only just over 100 miles ENE of the actual 0Z 10/20 position. Also, the ICON has been fairly good with a storm in the general area as far back as the 0Z 10/13 run. The NHC didn’t have its best with Oscar’s genesis. It had only a 10% chance in yesterdays 8AM EDT TWO! Not good. To compare I thought they did very well with Milton overall but not good with Helene’s projected track into GA as they kept the center in W GA instead of E GA like most of the main globals had. Up and down recently for them although they usually do well imo. This year I feel like they’ve been extra conservative in recognizing TCG.

Yesterday’s Euro Weeklies have a 90 percentile ACEwise for Nov 4-10 with a whopping 4 x climo or ~9, which is norm for 1st week in Oct. The last time that week had 9+ was 2008 (Paloma). The MJO fcasts are supportive with mod left side at start. Ensembles have it active in W Car then.

I was among those closely following the 2014 SAI and was deeply disappointed. This 11/1/14 post from cfbaggett sums up well the excitement many of us had in the annual fall snowcover thread: And so October ends… Amazing month. The slope, as I calculate it, was 295,000 km^2/day. Thus, it appears we can predict with reasonable confidence a strongly negative AO winter. After this major fail, the SAI never regained its former luster. 2014-5’s AO was the most + since 07-08!

Euro Weeklies today upped 11/4-11/10 to 3.7 of climo:

That’s the way I’ve always felt down here about wintry precip and much more to the extreme. It is so rare that I don’t even expect a T in any one winter. Most winters don’t even get a T. Thus, just a T here is a big deal. Last one was nearly 7 yrs ago! For me winter mainly means up and down temps (with some wild swings) with much colder and drier air overall vs rest of year and a few nasty cold rains. That’s plenty enough to make it my favorite season. Wintry precip, even just a T, is never expected but always a hope as a rare bonus.

I realize that. But just about every WB CFS control run has a similar SSTa pattern with that large cold area that doesn’t show up on any other CFS maps anywhere and a strong moderation of the marine heatwave, both pure BS. So, an avg of 12 of them would usually be similar. The true CFS output isn’t showing anything of the sort. Thus, it’s essentially fake. For example, here are the last 5 for April:

I sure hope that these flawed CFS maps are not due to intentional manipulation like you’re saying! I’ve not been assuming that. Wouldn’t that be illegal? Why would a company take that chance?

Actually, CANSIPS has also been showing a strong -PDO. The only maps I’ve seen not showing a strong -PDO this winter are the heavily flawed WxBell CFS maps, which have on several occasions already been shown to be garbage and are far different from other versions of the same model! They were even showing a +PDO for this winter, which was getting JB excited and posting them. However, they’ve since backed down to neutral (though that’s still WAY off) as we’ve gotten closer due to the partial correction of the flawed maps. That’s why JB has recently not been as vocal about a possible +PDO this winter. However, WB CFS still show a +PDO but now not til spring (WPAC marine heatwave gone lmao) while TT CFS show no such thing. The flawed WB algorithms won’t allow the entire runs to avoid getting rid of the marine heatwave and showing a +PDO: WB CFS for Apr 2025: WPAC marine heatwave magically gone with fake strongly BN blue/green area covering much of WPAC: TT CFS for Apr 2025: WPAC marine heatwave intact and AN where WB has strong BN on the SAME model with similar base climo: @donsutherland1

Unless I missed others, the -3.54 of Sept is the 2nd lowest PDO since 1854 with only 7/1950’s -3.65 lower! There’s a strong correlation between a very strongly -PDO in Sep (-1.5-) and a strongly -PDO in winter (-1.0-) during La Niña with exceptions being: - 1892-3: Sep -2.5 vs DJF of -0.8 - 1924-5: Sep -1.7 vs DJF of -0.6 - 1933-4: Sep -3.0 vs DJF of -0.3

1. On RONI basis (relative ONI that takes into account the very warm global tropical SST anomalies overall) La Niña is very likely already bordering moderate. 2. Blocking in summer/fall has very little or no correlation to that in winter. Plus NAO was positive in August and has returned to positive. 3. PDO remains near record strong negative due to W Pacific marine heatwave. 4. That in combo with La Niña and all models showing a mild SE/good SE ridging (warmest of the E US in many cases) makes me pretty confident that this winter will be warmer than 23-24, which was NN to slightly AN, in SE. 5. This would be good news for W NC folks still then without shelter/heat. 6. Regarding the next potential chilly winter in the SE, I’m already looking forward to 25-26 potential due to a possible Modoki El Niño per the last two CANSIPS runs. 7. Regardless of how mild is this winter, winter is normally my favorite seasonas temperatures are near guaranteed to be 25+ colder than summer and RHs lower, great for walking!

With all due respect: if JB said that, he likely misquoted it. Besides, Dec is already in winter: “There’s an old saying I’ve heard over the years: ‘what happens in November, the winter will remember!’” from this link: https://whnt.com/weather/valleywx-blog/will-winter-remember-november/amp/

Thanks for posting this. In case there’s any confusion, here are some quotes from this: the Sun has reached its solar maximum period, which could continue for the next year. “This announcement doesn’t mean that this is the peak of solar activity we’ll see this solar cycle,” said Elsayed Talaat, director of space weather operations at NOAA. “While the Sun has reached the solar maximum period, the month that solar activity peaks on the Sun will not be identified for months or years.” Scientists will not be able to determine the exact peak of this solar maximum period for many months because it’s only identifiable after they’ve tracked a consistent decline in solar activity after that peak.

But -ironically JB often says “the weather in November the winter will remember”. -JB keeps hinting at cold in November but so far I see no sign of it

This is one of my favorite times of year, when the first pushes of cool/dry Canadian air plunge down following soon after most of 5 months with 65+ dewpoints mostly 70+). Makes walking enjoyable again and will likely give me lots of opportunities through mid April even if a mild winter.

That very high first half of Oct record high ACE estimate in 1893 is based partially on my own adjustment of the 63.5 total ACE generated by storm #9 (4th highest on record) by looking at the best track data available (yes, the 63.5 ACE is their educated guess based mainly on ships but also on land data from Bahamas/SE US) for the latest on record E MDR storm that made it to the CONUS. This caused major damage in SC: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy urricane Nine 1893 Category 3 hurricane 63.5 20 days I also had to add ACE for another MH, storm #10 that hit SE LA as a 948 mb MH Oct 1-2.

12Z UKMET text still has TCG/STCG for the initially baroclinic low off the E coast. Not likely to bother any land regardless: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 35.0N 70.9W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 17.10.2024 48 36.1N 70.0W 1003 45 0000UTC 18.10.2024 60 38.1N 68.7W 994 48 1200UTC 18.10.2024 72 37.8N 66.4W 1000 46 0000UTC 19.10.2024 84 35.8N 63.3W 1008 38 1200UTC 19.10.2024 96 33.3N 61.9W 1013 31 0000UTC 20.10.2024 108 CEASED TRACKING

There’s still no ONI/RONI update for JAS. I’m assuming this is related to the Asheville data outage.

Been quite awhile. 2005-6, which followed El Niño, didn’t double and then was followed by El Niño. Prior to that, 1963-4, 64-5, 65-6 (Nino, Niña, Nino).

Very much fwiw: last 2 CANSIPS run show Modoki El Niño forming next summer.

The last two Euros at least have had no BN anomalies in Canada or in any of N America on the latest one for that matter for DJF as a whole. The runs are pretty strongly suggesting AN dominating at least the E half of Canada. I haven’t seen the month by month breakdown but the Euro has a much stronger warm signal than the CFS.

Also, the models have a surface low forming well offshore the E US. This year NHC hasn’t been naming these types. Not a big deal most likely but could it become T or ST? 12Z UK has it as one or other: (I think 0Z also had it) NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 33.4N 72.4W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 17.10.2024 60 33.4N 72.4W 1011 33 1200UTC 17.10.2024 72 35.7N 69.9W 1006 42 0000UTC 18.10.2024 84 37.8N 66.5W 1001 43 1200UTC 18.10.2024 96 38.6N 63.3W 1001 46 0000UTC 19.10.2024 108 36.4N 59.5W 1008 38 1200UTC 19.10.2024 120 33.5N 56.5W 1014 32 0000UTC 20.10.2024 132 CEASED TRACKING

12Z Euro and CMC both approach Hispaniola moving WSW and then hook sharply right moving NNE to near Bermuda

12Z UKMET: further S than prior runs moving WSW through E Cuba into the NW Caribbean. This is similar to the 12Z Icon and JMA hit on E Cuba moving SW/WSW, a climatological rarity. Cuba is one of the more favored land areas for a landfall this time of year but not in that manner: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 17.0N 38.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942024 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 14.10.2024 0 17.0N 38.5W 1014 23 0000UTC 15.10.2024 12 16.3N 40.5W 1013 23 1200UTC 15.10.2024 24 15.9N 42.1W 1012 24 0000UTC 16.10.2024 36 15.9N 44.6W 1011 24 1200UTC 16.10.2024 48 16.1N 47.8W 1012 26 0000UTC 17.10.2024 60 16.5N 51.1W 1011 27 1200UTC 17.10.2024 72 17.2N 55.1W 1012 28 0000UTC 18.10.2024 84 17.8N 58.6W 1011 26 1200UTC 18.10.2024 96 19.1N 61.6W 1011 27 0000UTC 19.10.2024 108 19.9N 64.7W 1010 28 1200UTC 19.10.2024 120 20.4N 67.9W 1009 30 0000UTC 20.10.2024 132 20.8N 71.1W 1007 31 1200UTC 20.10.2024 144 20.7N 74.0W 1006 31 0000UTC 21.10.2024 156 20.6N 75.9W 1005 31 1200UTC 21.10.2024 168 19.6N 78.1W 1005 28

Don, I just realized that this Euro winter outlook has 01/09/24 stamped on it. Did you realize that? Is this the latest? What about 01/10/24?

0Z UKMET: moving WSW underneath a deep high toward E Cuba: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 17.3N 36.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942024 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 14.10.2024 0 17.3N 36.3W 1013 24 1200UTC 14.10.2024 12 17.2N 38.4W 1014 23 0000UTC 15.10.2024 24 16.7N 40.3W 1012 23 1200UTC 15.10.2024 36 16.4N 42.4W 1012 23 0000UTC 16.10.2024 48 16.6N 45.2W 1011 24 1200UTC 16.10.2024 60 16.8N 48.3W 1012 26 0000UTC 17.10.2024 72 17.7N 51.8W 1011 29 1200UTC 17.10.2024 84 18.6N 56.0W 1011 30 0000UTC 18.10.2024 96 19.9N 59.3W 1011 29 1200UTC 18.10.2024 108 21.4N 62.4W 1012 27 0000UTC 19.10.2024 120 22.3N 65.3W 1012 28 1200UTC 19.10.2024 132 22.5N 67.8W 1011 27 0000UTC 20.10.2024 144 22.2N 70.1W 1010 29 1200UTC 20.10.2024 156 21.4N 72.0W 1009 29 0000UTC 21.10.2024 168 20.8N 73.5W 1007 25