GaWx

Todays Euro Weekly at H5 for 1/6-12 looks pretty good:

KSAV, KATL, and KCHS saw their first freeze of the season yesterday while KSVN had its first this morning. Another fantastic day for outdoor activities is on the way for those areas today with afternoon temperatures mainly in the 50s and plenty of sun.

Latest model consensus continues suggesting BN temperatures dominating much of the 1st half of December in the SE US.

Latest AAM from CFS ensemble fwiw continues El Ninoish +AAM during the last half of Dec, something I like seeing as it may mean the SE ridge won’t become dominant anytime soon:

Thanks, Mitch. This is the 4th run in a row showing a Modoki El Niño developing next summer fwiw. I’d also love to see the NW Pacific cool off.

In ATL for the week and about to go walking with friends in beautiful upper 40s/light winds/sunny. This wx is fantastic. I hope it lasts for awhile. If not, I’m still glad we’re getting this!

Here was the Nov 15th run of the Euro Weeklies for 12/2-8: And the same run for 12/9-15:

Latest CFS ensemble AAM forecast: fairly similar to prior forecast with largely a moderate +AAM (El Ninoish). Most notable to me is that it hangs on and is even stronger at very late month although that’s a highly fwiw since these CFS forecasts aren’t the least bit reliable that far out: Prior forecast (from one week ago):

Bump. -# of NS is at 18, which is 5 below April CSU prediction. -# of NS days is at 78, which is way below the predicted 116 -ACE is at 162, which is way below the predicted 210. So, 2024 was still another extremely April CSU forecast that verified too active.

You don’t sound like you’re as much of a pure cold lover (SE brand of cold I mean) as me. It makes me want to go outside and enjoy it. Different strokes for different folks! Happy Thanksgiving, everybody!

If it were to end up only 5 days, I’d still be thankful for the 5 days. Any cold is good cold. But it appears to me like more than a total of 5 days is the most likely between now and 11/15 with these days over two different periods.

It looks to me like it will be close. Right now I have Nov MTD near the -2.9 to -3.3 range. My best guess is for -3.0 to -3.2. Jul and Aug were in the -2.9s. It appears that Nov was slightly more negative than those two, but the correlation of NOAA to WCS from month to month has been far from perfect. Thus, another in the -2.9s seems like a legit possibility even though I favor sub -3.0 right now. We’ll know pretty soon. If Nov is sub -3.0, it would be only the second time since 1851 for three sub -3 in a row. The only other time was in 1894.

NG is now down a whopping 7% since yesterday with a pretty steady drop the last 14 hours. It is now near session lows. Per a pro met friend: MUCH warmer overnight,…! -10 HDDs on the last 0z EPS vs the previous 12z run! Edit: NG closed down 8%! So, this market is seeing either less cold or potentially an earlier end to it.

There are still areas with peak autumn leaf color in the Atlanta area.

Natural gas (NG) has been down ~4.5-5% for the last few hours vs yesterday with most of drop from late last evening through early this morning. That makes me wonder if EPS and/or GEFS forecasted population weighted US HDDs has dropped notably vs yesterday’s runs.

I’m just happy to have the cold for late Nov and a good portion of the first half of Dec. Besides, wintry precip down here is rare and actually doesn’t occur most winters. Dry cold is so refreshing and is great for walking! So, I’m always happy with cold.

The EPO as expected dipped sharply to its lowest level in 13 months after being at its highest since June 4th just 5 days earlier: 2024 11 17 232.92 2024 11 18 182.78 2024 11 19 30.24 2024 11 20 -168.33 2024 11 21 -243.29 2024 11 22 -258.96 2024 11 23 -229.99

If the global tropics were averaging +4.5C but Nino was only at +2.3C, would you still be thinking of it as a super El Niño other than “in name”? Do you at least see my point?

But if the global tropics were averaging +4.5C but Nino 3.4 were only at +2.3C, why does 3.4 being at +2.3 really matter from El Niño perspective when it is actually a cold area of water relatively speaking and thus should act like La Niña?

I don’t disagree with what you wrote here from an “official” standpoint or “in name only”. But for all practical purposes, RONI is the more accurate metric imho because of where the SSTs in other tropical regions are is very important to consider. I’ll do an extreme hypothetical example to illustrate. Let’s say the average global tropical SST anomaly were +4.5C. And let’s say Nino 3.4 were at +2.3. Officially or in name only it would be a super Nino since it was at +2+. But, for all practical purposes it would actually be a super Niña because 3.4 was 2.2C colder than overall tropical waters. For that metric what’s important is how 3.4 is on a relative basis, which is what I mean by “for all practical purposes.” There’s really nothing El Niño about having a +2.3 in 3.4 other than “in name only” if the surrounding waters are averaging +4.5. In fact it is the opposite. @PhiEaglesfan712

For all practical purposes, I say yes. Actually, for all practical purposes, 1991-2 was a solid super-Nino with a +2.3 trimonthly peak per RONI along with 4 trimonthlies in a row of +2+. So, not just a borderline super.

Yes, 2023-4 was officially a borderline super event or a super “in name only”. But it was only a borderline moderate/strong El Niño at most for all practical purposes when taking the overall tropical waters’ warming into account. For a similar reason, we’re currently for all practical purposes in a weak La Niña even though officially it may end up cold neutral.

Natural gas opened up a whopping 7% this evening! With the ensembles still looking cold dominated, with no end yet in sight, and with NG having closed close to 7% off its highs on Fri, that actually isn’t a shock. So, now it is back up to near its Thu evening highs in the 3.50s.

Here are today’s CPC days 8-14 analogs. Note the bolded, 19891221. That as many in this region know was when there was a very rare/historic SE coastal heavy snowstorm along with extreme cold for a deep SE snow (temperatures in the lower 20s with lots of wind): 19561129 19851221 19881208 20081130 19581212 20021128 19891221 19561124 19761124 19881213

19891221 (bolded) was when there was a very rare/historic SE coastal heavy snowstorm along with extreme cold for a deep SE snow (temperatures in the lower 20s with lots of wind).