GaWx

I have EPO and PNA back only to 1950: -1962-3, 1967-8, Jan of 1985, and 2013-14 were all -EPO dominated -All of the above were +PNA dominated except just Jan of the 2013-4 winter

Snowman, Further to my post above, three of the greatest (and arguably the two greatest are in this) E US Arctic outbreaks on record occurred during 2nd year -ENSO: -Feb of 1899 -Jan of 1985 -Jan of 2014 Mere coincidence especially with sample size tiny? @snowman19

There are usually exceptions to any rule. These 2nd year -ENSO winters or portions of winters were cold in much of the E US: -1898-9 (including great 2/1899 frigid period)(March was also cold with its own outbreak early) -1909-10 (Dec/Feb) -1962-3 (frigid) -1967-8 (Jan-Feb) -Jan of 1985 (though Dec of 1984 warm) -2013-4 especially Midwest

In the longer term, it’s still looking pretty quiet on the Euro Weeklies in the ATL basin through August 10th with much more activity in the WPAC and EPAC vs ATL. The GEFS runs still show a small chance for something in the NE Gulf next week.

Thanks, Chuck. I see that the Euro op has 6000+ at peak. The 0Z GFS also barely has it. But I think most or all of the others are just shy of 6K. Is they what you see?

+1.95 trimonthly peak for ONI (border between strong and super) +1.50 trimonthly RONI peak (border between moderate and strong)

Very strong thunderstorms in a band moving SE into this area now. Edit 6:37PM: these were severe warned. Huge mess all over during rush hour as I had to drive in it. CTG is quite frequent. Many roads flooded. Edit: I ended up with ~1.25” although some in the county had 3”+. Lots of bad street flooding occurred, especially in the city.

Implies SE ridge dominance?

I’m just saying that you should preface the repost by saying something like “Here’s a copy of a post from a Storm2K poster”.

This is another S2K repost for those who don’t realize it. You should be giving credit to others when you copy their posts.

The posters/forecasters I favor the heaviest have neither a bullish nor a bearish bias from my perspective.

Summary of latest model progs for Nino 3.4: coolest month (these don’t take into account RONI type of adjustments downward) BoM (Australian): -0.2 (in August)(too warm overall in prior 2 years; last July was slightly too warm with -0.17 for OND vs actual of ~-0.4) Euro: ~-0.2 (almost always has been too warm…July forecast last year was only down to -0.11 for NDJ vs actual of ~-0.5) JMA: ~-0.9 (Nov)(did well 2 years ago but too cool last year as July forecast had -0.87 for OND vs actual of ~-0.4) MetFrance: ~-0.6 (Dec)(July outlook too warm 2 years ago but did fairly well last year with it actually slightly too cool with -0.61 OND vs actual of ~-0.4) CFS: -0.5 (Nov)(last July much too cold with -1.32 for OND!) UKMET: -0.76 (Oct) (this is from June as I don’t see July outlook yet)(did great 2 years ago but last July much too cool with -0.95 in OND) ———— So, my latest guess based on last year’s errors and current forecasts (all listed above) is for ONI low point this fall/winter of ~-0.4. That would likely mean RONI low of -0.6 to -0.9.

Since the current active era started in 1995, the only seasons pretty comparable to the bearishness of his #s are all either El Niño seasons or the cold neutral ENSO season of 2013. (My seasonal contest forecast is calling for 14/9/3 with ACE of 139 fwiw.)

However, the CSU downgrade was from a very active 155 ACE down to 140. IF an ~140 ACE were to verify, that would still be slightly above the 1991-2020 active period’s 122 avg.

-That poster has “cat 5” in the name and identifies as an early 20s pre-med college student per his/her profile. -That person, who has been posting there since the 2021 season, comes across as intelligent and writes well. However, he/she is also a permabull. I recall no clearly bearish seasonal posts from him/her these last 4+ seasons. -The bullish bias is hinted at by the wording used in that post you just posted: 1. doesn’t think stability will be a major “problem”; stability is a “problem” from perspective of someone who wants more activity 2. “Are the subtropics being anomalously warm really that big of a problem”…uses the word “problem” in a similar way

I just saw it. A -3.45 WCS PDO as of 7/8/25! New lowest I’ve ever seen!

A band of heavy thunderstorms has popped up in this area early this afternoon along the seabreeze. Coming down pretty hard now. Edit: That storm ended up being pretty wet. We also got a small amount late in the afternoon from other showers. Total for the day (7/9/25): ~0.75”.

This 7/9/25 CSU update was just posted at storm 2K: note that this isn’t anywhere close to saying “season cancel” as it is merely a slight decrease to still slightly above activity vs the recent active era: ACE dropped from 155 to 140, which is still 18 greater than 1991-2020 avg: CSU July 9 updateWe have decreased our forecast slightly and now call for a slightly above-normal 2025 Atlantic basin hurricane season. The primary reason for the slight decrease in the outlook is both observed and predicted high levels of Caribbean shear. High levels of Caribbean shear in June/July are typically associated with less active hurricane seasons. However, we also anticipate the tropical Pacific to be characterized by ENSO neutral conditions. Sea surface temperatures across the eastern and central Atlantic are slightly warmer than normal, but not as warm as they were last year at this time. A warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic combined with likely ENSO neutral conditions typically provides a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification. We anticipate a slightly above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity. Analog years for 2025 with the associated hurricane activity listed for each year.Year NS NSD H HD MH MHD ACE NTC2001 15 68.75 9 25.50 4 4.25 110.1 135.32008 16 88.25 8 30.50 5 7.50 145.7 162.32011 19 89.75 7 26.00 4 4.50 126.3 144.92021 21 79.75 7 27.75 4 12.75 145.6 173.7Average 17.8 81.6 7.8 27.4 4.3 7.3 131.9 154.02025 Forecast 16 80 8 30 3 8 140 145

Just to clarify for the readers here who don’t read the small print and do the calendar calculations, this Euro Weeklies map from yesterday covers *August 4-10. *Corrected dates to Aug 4-10 as I had first said Aug 5-12

Thanks, Chris. 1. About what % of the warming of US winters since 1970s would you guess is due to the +AMO? 2. About what % of the overall warming of US winters since the 1970s would you guess is due to the increasing UHI effect at major stations? 3. About how much would you say US winters have warmed due strictly to AGW?

Barry, Who on Storm 2K is calling for season cancel? I’ve seen nobody say anything of the sort. I’ve seen someone say “not very active”, which doesn’t at all mean season cancel. There’s a whole lot of options between very active and season cancel. I’ve seen someone else say the warmer subtropics vs tropics tend to suppress basin activity, but that also isn’t the same thing as season cancel.

Thanks, Charlie. Another factor I’ve found is for shallow waters like those near the FL Keys: rainfall/clouds. The lack thereof lead to an extreme marine heatwave there that lead to badly bleached coral. When the clouds/rains returned, it cooled back quite a bit.

There were numerous crazy high 24 hour rainfall amounts in C NC! It’s been over 25 years (almost back to when World Wide Web came into existence) since widespread very heavy 24 hour rainfall amounts like these occurred in this region: Insanity: PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1134 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2025 ...24 HOUR PRECIPITATION REPORTS OVER 7 INCHES ENDING AT 8AM FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL... LOCATION AMOUNT TIME/DATE PROVIDER ..NORTH CAROLINA ..ALAMANCE COUNTY MEBANE 3.0 SSW 9.73 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS BURLINGTON 3.9 NNW 8.01 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS 0.5 SW HAW RIVER 7.79 IN 1045 AM 07/07 COOP 1.3 SE GRAHAM 7.62 IN 0705 AM 07/07 COOP ..CHATHAM COUNTY 2.4 N MONCURE 11.92 IN 1045 AM 07/07 COOP PITTSBORO 8.8 NNE 11.53 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS PITTSBORO 5.0 NE 10.37 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS PITTSBORO 3.3 NNW 10.35 IN 0849 AM 07/07 COCORAHS PITTSBORO 10.15 IN 1055 AM 07/07 CWOP CHAPEL HILL 5.9 SW 10.05 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS PITTSBORO 5.4 WSW 9.44 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS CHAPEL HILL 8.6 SSW 9.25 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS PITTSBORO 0.8 NNW 9.12 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS SILER CITY 6.6 ENE 9.10 IN 0640 AM 07/07 COCORAHS SILER CITY 8.1 ENE 8.14 IN 0800 AM 07/07 COCORAHS GOLDSTON 3.8 N 7.94 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS SILER CITY 7.2 NE 7.54 IN 0800 AM 07/07 COCORAHS SILER CITY 7.23 IN 1055 AM 07/07 CWOP SILER CITY 7.10 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS ..DURHAM COUNTY DURHAM 4.6 WNW 8.46 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS DURHAM 5.8 NW 8.23 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS HILLSBOROUGH 7.26 IN 1100 AM 07/07 CWOP DURHAM 5.2 NW 7.19 IN 0615 AM 07/07 COCORAHS ..MOORE COUNTY 2 WSW WHISPERING PINES 7.45 IN 0800 AM 07/07 COCORAHS WHISPERING PINES 1.0 SW 7.20 IN 0800 AM 07/07 COCORAHS ..ORANGE COUNTY HILLSBOROUGH 8.4 NNE 10.49 IN 0840 AM 07/07 COCORAHS HILLSBOROUGH 7.4 NW 10.43 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS CHAPEL HILL 4.5 WSW 10.22 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS HILLSBOROUGH 5.6 NNW 9.96 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS CARRBORO 0.7 NNE 9.82 IN 0800 AM 07/07 COCORAHS DURHAM 6.7 WNW 9.80 IN 0800 AM 07/07 COCORAHS CHAPEL HILL 4.7 SW 9.57 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS DUKE FOREST DURHAM 11 W 9.36 IN 1100 AM 07/07 HADS DURHAM 9.28 IN 1045 AM 07/07 CWOP CHAPEL HILL 2.0 NNE 9.20 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS EFLAND 4.0 NNW 9.10 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS HILLSBOROUGH 0.6 NNW 8.89 IN 0800 AM 07/07 COCORAHS EFLAND 8.75 IN 1055 AM 07/07 CWOP CHAPEL HILL 4.3 WSW 8.70 IN 0730 AM 07/07 COCORAHS HILLSBOROUGH 1.8 S 8.41 IN 0800 AM 07/07 COCORAHS CARRBORO 0.8 SE 8.36 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS HILLSBOROUGH 1.5 NE 8.36 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS CARRBORO 0.6 NNE 8.32 IN 0602 AM 07/07 COCORAHS 0.5 SE CARRBORO 8.00 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COOP CHAPEL HILL 8.2 W 7.92 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS CHAPEL HILL 7.88 IN 1229 AM 07/07 CWOP DUKE FOREST MET STA NR CHAPE 7.82 IN 1016 AM 07/07 RAWS CHAPEL HILL 7.2 WSW 7.76 IN 0800 AM 07/07 COCORAHS CHAPEL HILL 4.0 WNW 7.73 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS CHAPEL HILL 9.4 W 7.69 IN 0730 AM 07/07 COCORAHS HURDLE MILLS 7.58 IN 1045 AM 07/07 CWOP ROUGEMONT 4.7 SW 7.54 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS CHAPEL HILL 11.4 W 7.53 IN 0715 AM 07/07 COCORAHS HILLSBOROUGH 4.0 SSW 7.48 IN 0600 AM 07/07 COCORAHS 1 SE CHAPEL HILL 7.33 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS HILLSBOROUGH 2.8 SSW 7.27 IN 0709 AM 07/07 COCORAHS 2 NNE CHAPEL HILL 7.21 IN 1105 AM 07/07 AWS ..PERSON COUNTY HURDLE MILLS 5.2 NNW 9.15 IN 0800 AM 07/07 COCORAHS

The WCS version of the PDO has fallen quite a bit more since July 2nd. As of July 6th, it’s way down to -3.29! It was actually down to ~-3.30 on July 5th. I’ve never seen this so negative. The NOAA daily PDO is likely down to sub -4!

Is there a chance that the name Barry will be retired as a result of the TX floods?