GaWx

Currently, the MDR is 2nd warmest since 1982, barely behind 2010. So, keeping that in mind:

As @Terpeastnoted in the NYC forum, the new Euro strengthened the -PDO for later this year vs its prior run.

After a significantly warmer ENSO run in April, this new Euro run also cooled ENSO back down considerably in addition to significantly warming the MDR (new run on left)(all fwiw of course):

The new Euro has not only significantly cooled ENSO vs its Apr forecast, which had warmed ENSO considerably from the month before, but it also warmed the MDR significantly (new run on left)(fwiw obviously):

The new Euro has not only cooled ENSO significantly vs its Apr forecast, which had warmed ENSO considerably from the month before, but it also warmed the MDR significantly (new run on left)(fwiw of course):

JB wishcasting aside, 24 is very likely going to have a 150++ ACE. This is due to the combo of a very warm MDR (now 2nd warmest on record) and highly likely La Niña, especially based on RONI. Wouldn’t that put him in a conundrum though? It works for 95-6 and 10-1. But 13/14 had ACE of only 36/67, weakest/5th weakest of the current active era. So, if 24 would end up very active and if he then uses that to support 95-6 and 10-1 as good analogs, how would he then justify also holding onto 13-4 and 14-5 as analogs? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy

Today’s Euro weekly is similarly BN for 5/13-20.

1. Not at all but I’d still prefer to see further analysis in this case before assuming that, which would be awful if true. For example, is there some alternative potential explanation for WB CFS showing that ~4,000,000 sm area from N of Hawaii westward being BN when other CFS maps showed mainly AN there (i.e., WB colder) while at the same time WB CFS has solid AN just off N Amer vs NN to slightly BN on others (i.e., WB warmer)? If they were both either colder or warmer, I’d suspect algo bias. But in this case, one is colder and other is warmer. So, if not algo bias, what could it be besides intentional manip? Isn’t there possibly some other explanation? 2. You said he purposely posted SN maps in cm vs inches to make look snowier. I follow that. But I don’t follow how him posting maps in C vs F would make it look colder. Please explain.

Did the maps show positive departures? Were they red/orange/yellow, etc?

Yes

Very fwiw esp due to a cold bias tendency, but the Euro weekly for 5/13-20 is this:

So, FMA RONI was 0.48 vs FMA ONI’s 1.15. That means that the FMA ONI-RONI just hit a new record high of 0.67 breaking the previous record of 0.64 just set in JFM.

Really? Wow if true! So, in this case, are you saying you believe that WB is purposely skewing the colors on the Pacific SSTa maps to make it show a +PDO when it really is a -PDO? I don’t believe that but I suppose anything’s possible until if/when there’s an explanation.

But this is even worse because it is like looking at the WB version of the CMC only and not other versions of the same model (CMC) that are very different and make more sense (more believable). Why very different SSTa output from the same model even exists is mind boggling. They should be similar.

Actually, the bigger issue here may be why the WB CFS SSTa maps are so wacky as opposed to the never ending JB cold winter bias. Do y’all see what I’m seeing? This isn’t the first time. I’m not saying it is intentional. But why are they so far off? @snowman19

It doesn’t matter as he’s using maps with bogus CFS forecasted Pacific SSTa data to make it seem like 13/14 is a good analog. I‘m not saying he knows it is bogus though. I assume he doesn’t.

True. But if he were at least to use accurate maps showing a +PDO, it wouldn’t be so bad. But doing this using inaccurate maps is ridiculous. I assume he doesn’t realize these WB SSTa maps are bogus.

Privately he may very well look at others but he’d still likely dismiss them in his mind due to his bias. But regardless, publicly because he works for WB, because the WB maps show what he wants (+PDO), and because he keeps thinking after a bunch of busts that perhaps he won’t bust this time, especially since he almost always badly wants to predict a cold E US winter.

New from JB: “Now the CFSV2 is trying to forecast a warm PDO for the winter” “this would resemble a blend of the SST of 10-11,13-14,14-15” Once again, he’s relying on what I feel are bogus WB CFS SSTa maps like the one above. Yes, that looks like a +PDO. But it doesn’t matter if it is bogus like I think it is. Why does it have the warmest Pac waters, other than near Japan, just off N.A. and a 1,000 by 4,000 mile area of cold waters in the W to CPAC (to just N of Hawaii)?? To compare, here’s the -PDO shown on the latest TT CFS SSTa map for NDJ using 1984-2009 climo (DJF not out yet on TT): is orange where huge blue WB area is (including N of Hawaii) and only yellow/white (cooler) just off N.A. So, TT -PDO for NDJ vs WB +PDO for DJF for the same model! You can’t make this stuff up! By the way here’s TT CANSIPS for DJF: strong -PDO @snowman19@donsutherland1@Brian5671

For some slight good news at least for now: the Atlantic MDR is for the first time in 11 months no longer the warmest on record as 2010 has barely overtaken it.

1. I don’t like seeing this, especially because I’m not too far from the coast of GA. 2. The increase in tidal flooding isn’t just from SLR/CC. Subsidence has also been a major and possibly larger factor in some of these same areas: Regions with the highest land subsidence in the United States are mainly located along the East and Gulf Coast Analyzing land subsidence rates in large coastal cities, Bekaert and his colleagues found Houston has the fastest peak subsidence rates — about 17 millimeters (0.67 inches) per year from 2014 to 2020 — in the United States. Other research showed parts of Houston lost over 3 meters in elevation in certain areas since 1917. Land subsidence in the Houston-Galveston area is largely caused by groundwater withdrawals. Parts of New Orleans are also experiencing high rates of sinking, due to both human-induced and natural processes. Research showed that rates are highly variable across the city, ranging from 150 to 500 millimeters (6 to 20 inches) over the past 20 years. While Houston and New Orleans are notable subsiding locations, other places in the Gulf also experience high rates. In a large area north of Tampa Bay, subsidence rates have been clocked at up to 6 millimeters (0.24 inches) per year, about twice as much as global sea level rise, from 2015 to 2020 due to groundwater pumping. https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/05/30/land-sinking-us-subsidence-sea-level/

Thank you for this link! This is a summary of what I learned from reading it, with emphasis on tables 3 (9 eruptions since 1880s) and 4 (subset of the 9 that covers only the 4 since 1963) -Covers the two DJFs that follow 9 volcanic eruptions (3 each of VEI 4, 5, 6) -For the eruptions that occurred Mar-Aug (7 of 9) the immediate next 2 DJFs were analyzed -But for the two that occurred in Oct, a one year lag was assumed and thus the two later DJFs were studied. -Winters analyzed: 1883-4/1884-5, 1886-7/1887-8, 1888-9/1889-90, 1903-4/1904-5, 1932-3/1933-4, 1963-4/1964-5, 1975-6/1976-7, 1982-3/1983-4, 1991-2/1992-3 -For these 18 winters averaged, table 3 shows a significant +AO and +NAO based on BN SLP in the Arctic (-2 mb) and AN SLP in the Azores (+3 mb). -For just the average of the 8 winters since 1963-4, table 4 shows an even stronger +AO/+NAO with even more BN Arctic SLP (-3 mb) and even more AN Azores SLP (+5 mb). -But focusing on just the 8 winters since 1963 (table 4) and looking at the respective NOAA NAO/AO monthlies shows a disconnect with this study’s table 4/very mixed picture 1) NAO: 1963-4 and 1976-7 had two of the strongest -NAO since 1950! Also, 1964-5 had a moderate -NAO and 1975-6 had a neutral NAO. So, 50% of the 8 winters had a negative to neutral NAO. The average NAO for the 8 was near 0/neutral! **Edit: Coincidentally?, 1963-4/1964-5 and 1975-6/1976-7 were near solar mins (avg sunspots <27) while 1982-3 and 1991-2/1992-3 had >110 with 1983-4 ~75. 2024-5 almost definitely/2025-6 likely will have active sunspots fwiw. 2) AO: 1964-5 and 1976-7 were -AO while 1963-4, 1982-3, and 1983-4 were neutral AO. So, 5/8 of the 8 winters had a negative to neutral AO. The average AO for the 8 winters was near 0/neutral! -Their map for the 18 winter average shows NN temperatures in the E US despite their +AO/+NAO average. (They’re AN in N Eurasia). -My look at the 18 E US winter temperatures one by one using NYC as the representative city (normals based on nearby 30 year averages): 1883-4: slightly BN (cold Jan) 1884-5: BN (very cold Feb) (cold SE)(Nino) 1886-7: slightly BN (cold Dec)(Niña) 1887-8: BN (very cold Jan)(big Mar blizzard) 1888-9: slightly AN (mild Jan)(super Nino) 1889-90: MAN (D,J,F mild)(MAN SE)(Niña) 1903-4: MBN (all 3 cold)(BN SE)(Niña) 1904-5: BN (cold D,F)(MBN in SE)(Nino) 1932-3: AN (mild D,J) 1933-4: BN (record cold F)(Niña) 1963-4: NN (cold D, mild J)(MBN in SE)(Nino) 1964-5: NN (Niña) 1975-6: NN (cold Jan, mild Feb)(Niña) 1976-7: MBN (MBN DJ)(record cold SE)(Nino) 1982-3: AN (mild Dec)(super Nino) 1983-4: NN (mild Feb)(Niña) 1991-2: AN (Nino) 1992-3: NN (mild J, cold F)(Storm of Cent. Mar) ————— AVG of all 18: slightly BN/wide variation AVG of 9 1st winters: slightly AN/wide variation AVG of 9 2nd winters: slightly BN/wide variation (most of BN to MBN winters 2nd yr) ENSO: 7 Nino, 7 Niña (even split but study favors Nino maybe due to bigger weights of 2 super Nino) Their maps show stronger than normal SPV/TPV for the 18 winter average. Stratosphere is opposite, warmer than normal, in the tropics.

The overall lower level of posting is likely because the prospects for warmth next winter in the E US appear higher to many than it looked a year ago for 2023-4. I’m still posting and will continue to because I enjoy forecast discussions regardless of what the prospects are for whatever. But I’m much less excited than last year for a shot at a non-warm winter (though winter is still my favorite season). Snowman may post more later for all we know. However, there’s less incentive this year because he’d no longer be the near lone dissenting voice as folks like me would largely agree with him now. Last year he had raindance and sometimes Chuck and George but hardly anyone else as I recall. In other words, it is closer to an echo chamber so far this year. So, who would he preach good chance of a warm winter to if many of us are already believers? (That said, nothing in the wacky world of wx is ever close to being set in stone.) In case you haven’t seen it yet you can go to the NYC region’s banter thread to see him, myself, donsutherland, bluewave, and others if you want to see some recent more active longterm forecast discussions. These discussions aren’t particularly aimed at the NYC region as they’re about the E US in general.

Fwiw for next winter (I know forecast value is low), the new CANSIPS pretty much maintains the -PDO/WPAC marine heatwave/basin wide to central based La Niña/-PNA/+EPO of the prior run though all but -PDO/WPAC marine heatwave with less intensity. Also, it lost the +AO/+NAO to go neutral to slightly -AO/-NAO. Temperatures in the E US went (vs cooler base of 1981-2010) from a somewhat solid AN on the prior run to very slightly AN to NN on the new one. This is equivalent to NN vs 1991-2020 base. It cooled ~2 F. Again, fwiw and I’ll believe it will be that “cool” when I see it (due to model cold bias and very low accuracy that far out): New 2 meter DJF E US: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=eus&pkg=T2maMean_month&runtime=2024050100&fh=9 Old: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=eus&pkg=T2maMean_month&runtime=2024040100&fh=10

Fwiw for next winter (I know forecast value is low), the new CANSIPS pretty much maintains the -PDO/WPAC marine heatwave/basin wide to central based La Niña/-PNA/+EPO of the prior run though all but -PDO/WPAC marine heatwave with less intensity. Also, it lost the +AO/+NAO to go neutral to slightly -AO/-NAO. Temperatures in the E US went (vs cooler base of 1981-2010) from a somewhat solid AN on the prior run to very slightly AN to NN on the new one. This is equivalent to NN vs 1991-2020 base. It cooled ~2 F. Again, fwiw and I’ll believe it will be that “cool” when I see it (due to model cold bias and very low accuracy that far out): New 2 meter DJF E US: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=eus&pkg=T2maMean_month&runtime=2024050100&fh=9 Old: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=eus&pkg=T2maMean_month&runtime=2024040100&fh=10