GaWx

The WCS version of the PDO has fallen quite a bit more since July 2nd. As of July 6th, it’s way down to -3.29! It was actually down to ~-3.30 on July 5th. I’ve never seen this so negative. The NOAA daily PDO is likely down to sub -4!

Is there a chance that the name Barry will be retired as a result of the TX floods?

But not in Atlanta, where they had a ~4.5” (major) snowstorm in early Jan, the biggest since the 3/1993 blizzard.

How remnants of Tropical Storm Barry are to blame for Texas floods The tropical moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry, combined with a stationary storm complex (which provided the lift) that was already sitting over Texas, resulted in slow-moving heavy downpours that produced prolific rainfall totals over a short period of time. https://www.winknews.com/weather/explainers/how-remnants-of-tropical-storm-barry-are-to-blame-for-texas-floods/article_9eaa0636-38cd-4cc3-a058-5f5a926cb314.html

Early afternoon popup thunderstorms along the sea breeze in this area. I just started getting light to moderate rain a few minutes ago.

I think it’s a combo of just randomness and the decision to classify or not as a NS as storm #1 of 2025 might not been named in some of the other seasons since 1951.

When was the last single event for which most of this section of central NC received this much rainfall within a 24 hour period?

Despite running well ahead of normal with already 3 NS, the ACE through July 6th is still only at 1.46 vs the 1951-2024 avg of 4.12! That is lower than 46 of those 74 years. I’ll now compare to other years since 1951 with 3+ NS by July 6th along with their ACE: Year: NS/ACE 1954: 3/8.56 1959: 4/7.18 1968: 3/13.54 2005: 4/5.84 2012: 4/11.2 2016: 4/6.85 2017: 3/3.18 2020: 5/7.24 2021: 5/10.59 2023: 3/8.62 2024: 3/32.57 2025: 3/1.46 Note that for these 12 seasons since 1951 with 3+ NS by July 6th, the year 2025 has by far the lowest ACE/storm (0.49)! That easily beats the 2nd lowest, 2017’s 1.06/storm. The highest is 2024’s 10.86/storm. The avg of these 12 seasons through July 6th is ~2.8 ACE/storm.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1042 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025 ...FORECAST FLOODING CHANGED FROM MODERATE TO MAJOR SEVERITY AND INCREASED IN DURATION FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NORTH CAROLINA... HAW RIVER AT HAW RIVER AFFECTING ALAMANCE COUNTY. 250707T1727Z.NO/ 1042 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025 ..FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING * WHAT...MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. * WHERE...HAW RIVER AT HAW RIVER. * WHEN...UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...AT 18.0 FEET, MINOR FLOODING BEGINS. OVERFLOW BEGINS ON BOTH BANKS AT THE WATER TREATMENT PLANT. AT 20.0 FEET, THERE IS SIGNIFICANT OVERFLOW ON THE RIGHT BANK OPPOSITE THE WATER TREATMENT PLANT. WATER ALSO REACHES THE RED SLIDE PARK UPSTREAM OF THE MAIN ST. BRIDGE. AT 23.0 FEET, MODERATE FLOODING BEGINS. FLOODING REACHES THE BASE OF THE WATER TREATMENT PLANT BUILDING. THERE IS ALSO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF THE RED SLIDE PARK UPSTREAM OF THE MAIN ST. BRIDGE, AND LANG ST WILL BE IMPASSABLE AT 25.5 FEET, THE WATER TREATMENT PLANT BUILDING FLOODS. AT 26.0 FEET, TRAILER HOMES ADJACENT TO THE RIVER AND THE WATER TREATMENT PLANT FLOOD. EVACUATIONS MAY BE NECESSARY. AT 27.0 FEET, MAJOR FLOODING BEGINS. THE TOWN OF HAW RIVER BEGINS TO FLOOD. AT 28.0 FEET, FLOOD WATERS REACH THE BOTTOM OF THE BRIDGE ACROSS I40. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - AT 9:45 PM EDT SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 25.5 FEET. - FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO A CREST OF 27.5 FEET JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. IT WILL THEN FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. - FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET. - FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 26.3 FEET ON 09/17/2018. - HTTP://www.weather.gov/SAFETY/FLOOD FLD OBSERVED FORECASTS (8 PM EDT) LOCATION STG STG DAY/TIME MON TUE WED THU HAW RIVER HAW RIVE 18.0 25.5 SUN 9 PM EDT 14.0 10.6 8.4 6.0

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1032 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS EXTENDED THE * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... ALAMANCE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... CHATHAM COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... SOUTHWESTERN DURHAM COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... SOUTHERN ORANGE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... EASTERN RANDOLPH COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 200 AM EDT. * AT 1032 PM EDT, WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF ORANGE, ALAMANCE AND CHATHAM COUNTIES THIS EVENING AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THE AREA WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES. NUMEROUS WATER RESCUES HAVE OCCURRED THIS EVENING AND SOME HOMES FLOODED. PLEASE DO NOT TRAVEL UNLESS ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO SEE THE DANGERS OF FLOODING AT NIGHT. HAZARD...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING. THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED. IMPACT...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS, URBAN AREAS, HIGHWAYS, STREETS AND UNDERPASSES. * SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE... CHAPEL HILL, BURLINGTON, GRAHAM, HILLSBOROUGH, PITTSBORO, SILER CITY, CARRBORO, MEBANE, GOLDSTON, ELON, GIBSONVILLE, LIBERTY, HAW RIVER, RAMSEUR, FRANKLINVILLE, SWEPSONVILLE, ALAMANCE, STALEY AND SUTPHIN.

I just read that water rescues are taking place in Orange County, the county where Chapel Hill is located: "’People trapped with water up to their necks or higher’ at camelot village apts in CH”

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 935 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... PERSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 145 AM EDT. * AT 935 PM EDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA. FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING OR EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY. HAZARD...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING. THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. SOURCE...RADAR. IMPACT...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS, URBAN AREAS, HIGHWAYS, STREETS AND UNDERPASSES. * SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE... ROXBORO, CONCORD, SURL, BUSHY FORK, BETHEL HILL, MAYO RESERVOIR, HYCO LAKE, HYCO MARINA AND MORIAH. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AREAS ACROSS PERSON COUNTY COULD RECEIVE AN ADDITIONAL 3-6 INCHES OF RAINFALL RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING.

I don’t see a color/amounts guide, but this clearly shows where the heaviest has already fallen. I read that some areas have already gotten 8-10”!

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 704 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN ALAMANCE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... DURHAM COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... NORTHERN ORANGE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 1000 PM EDT. * AT 704 PM EDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. UP TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING OR EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY. HAZARD...FLASH FLOODING CAUSED BY THUNDERSTORMS. SOURCE...RADAR. IMPACT...FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS, URBAN AREAS, HIGHWAYS, STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW-LYING AREAS. * SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE... DURHAM, HILLSBOROUGH, ROUGEMONT, SCHLEY, ENO RIVER STATE PARK, BAHAMA, LAKE MICHIE, CARR, AND UNION RIDGE.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 656 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... A DAM FAILURE OF A FARM POND AT THE HEAD OF JOES FORK IN... CENTRAL MOORE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 1245 AM EDT. * AT 656 PM EDT, LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED THE IMMINENT FAILURE OF THE FARM POND DAM. HAZARD...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING FROM THE IMMINENT FAILURE OF A FARM POND A THE HEAD OF JOES FORK. SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED. IMPACT...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR AREAS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE FARM POND AT THE HEAD OF JOES FORK. * THE NEAREST DOWNSTREAM LOCATION IS MAIN STREET BETWEEN RICHMOND ST AND ALSTON DR IN TAYLORTOWN. ROADS ALONG AND ADJACENT TO JOES FORK MAY BECOME FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IF YOU ARE IN LOW LYING AREAS ALONG JOES CREEK BETWEEN TAYLORTOWN AND WHISPERING PINES YOU SHOULD MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. NEVER DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.

This is bad, folks, especially for areas west of the Fayetteville to Raleigh corridor, where very heavy rains have fallen: BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 709 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS EXTENDED THE * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN HOKE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... LEE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... MOORE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... NORTHEASTERN RICHMOND COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 1115 PM EDT. * AT 709 PM EDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE HEAVY RAIN HAS LARGELY ENDED, HOWEVER EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED UP TO 7 INCHES OF OVER MOORE COUNTY. FLOODING IS ONGOING. HAZARD...FLASH FLOODING CAUSED BY THUNDERSTORMS. SOURCE...RADAR. IMPACT...FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS, URBAN AREAS, HIGHWAYS, STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW-LYING AREAS. * SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE... SANFORD, SOUTHERN PINES, TROY, CARTHAGE, PINEHURST, ABERDEEN, BISCOE, HOFFMAN, WHISPERING PINES, PINEBLUFF, ROBBINS, FOXFIRE, STAR, CANDOR, TAYLORTOWN, VASS, CAMERON AND NORMAN.

Maybe so, but keep in mind that H5 forecasts are sometimes pretty lousy, themselves.

Unfortunately, the best I’ve found archived is the 0.5 month lead like I posted. They did pretty well in Nov of 2015 for DJF 2015-6: I give them a B for the US as a whole -They did so-so in Nov 2016 for DJF 2016-7: my grade C for US overall -NOAA did well in 11/2017 for DJF 2017-8: A -They were absolutely awful in 11/2018 for 2018-9: F -2019-20 mediocre at best: C -2020-1 poor: D -2021-2 pretty good: B -2022-3 pretty good: B -2023-4 very good: A -2024-5 lousy: D —————— Summary of my overall US grades of Nov NOAA probabilities for DJF temps: 2013-4: C 2014-5: B 2015-6: B 2016-7: C 2017-8: A 2018-9: F 2019-20: C 2020-1: D 2021-2: B 2022-3: B 2023-4: A 2024-5: D Tally: A: 2 B: 4 C: 3 D: 2 F: 1 NOAA GPA for 0.5 month lead of last 12 DJF for US as a whole: 2.3/C+ (not bad)

NWS 11/15/2013 probabilities for DJF 2013-4 weren’t all that telling as they underdid the prospects for widespread cold though they hinted ok at where the coldest and warmest ended up being:

NWS DJF 2014-15 probabilities released in 11/2014: best cold chances centered in south Actual 2014-5 DJF vs 1981-2010: coldest in NE not south, which was only slightly BN

Does anyone know if archived Cansips seasonal forecasts are available somewhere so we can easily see how they’ve done overall?

If someone had the time, they could go through AmericanWx threads for each winter and find CANSIPS forecast maps (however far back they go) and compare to what verified. Any volunteers?

Hey Mitch, I’m confident that you realize that a model bias in whatever direction doesn’t mean it’s almost never going to miss in the opposite direction. A typical model bias could be something like verifying consistent with the bias 65% of the time while verifying the opposing way 20% of the time and being close 15% of the time. For example, the April 30th CANSIPS forecast for May was actually too warm, especially in Midwest/OH Valley/NE (though a bit too cool E VA S to FL): 4/30/25 CANSIPS for May ‘25 (in C vs 1981-2010): Actual May ‘25 (in F) vs 1981-2010: But the 2/28/25 CANSIPS verified as being significantly too cold for Mar ‘25 vs the reality of a very warm month. It was mainly warmer than normal but not nearly warm enough in most of the E US. Whereas CANSIPS was much too warm in Jan and too warm in Feb, it was much too cold in Dec.

Chris, Very well said about model biases! I couldn’t agree with you more. When significant clearcut cold biases are identified, it isn’t cherry picking to point out a much too cold model verification. If a model is too cold and has too low H5 hts in the E 1/2 of the US, say, 75-80% of the time, it isn’t cherry picking. The same could be said for any identified clear cut biases for any model.

Thanks, Charlie! Yes, I recall you mentioning the surface winds being higher this year vs last thus resulting in cooling from upwelling. Regardless, I think it’s important to always expose JB when he spreads misinfo about underwater seismic being the main factor in ocean warming and now cooling. I don’t expose it and other stuff like this because I necessarily agree with it. However, sometimes I like being reminded of the true explanation. Also, I expose it to show how often it’s being spouted as well as to generate responses like yours to keep others informed who are just reading this stuff from JB for the first time of how far off JB is. Thus, I expect to repost more of this JB nonsense as he continually posts it in the near future.