GaWx

The main diff, especially in the SE US, was that Feb of 2011 had a strongly +AO/NAO. Of DJF, F is often the warmest in La Nina. Edit: Also, in New England and NYC at least, DJF 2010-1 was actually colder than DJF 2009-10.

For those who may not realize this: The # of FFWs going up by a factor of ~5 over the last 40 years isn’t by any means just due to CC: Here’s why record-high flash flood warnings were issued in U.S. this year Rachel Dobkin Thu, July 17, 2025 There has been a record-high number of flash flood warnings issued in the U.S. this year, which can be linked to climate change and improved weather systems. Climate change can make river floods larger or more frequent in some places, according to the Environmental Protection Agency. But one expert explained another reason why there are more flash flood alerts than ever before. Amir AghaKouchak, director of the Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing at the University of California, Irvine, told NBC News radar systems and weather models have significantly improved over the last 40 years. “The system that was implemented back in the ‘80s is not the same as the system that we have now,” he said. “We have many, many more radars, and we have many different sources of data.” “So naturally you expect more warnings just because our systems are getting better and better,” the expert added. https://www.yahoo.com/news/why-record-high-flash-flood-000109408.html

But there’s no good reason imho to not be that way online as long as most others are that way in their interactions. People look at this in different ways. Some say that the real person may show up better online because of less inhibition to be oneself. OTOH, there are many trolls online.

Hey Barry, He’s in my list of posters with a bearish bias. If you took an avg of bull cat5 and bear 57, do you think they’d average neutral? Interesting fact: When baby boomer 57 joined there, Gen. Zer cat5 was near birth! Cat5 was born near the time that board was born. As you can see I called out bias in these two cases despite big age diffs.

Hey Barry, 57, a Houston area regular, is generous with his postings and is very knowledgable along with decades of experience with tropical forecasting. He runs his own tropical forecasting service. He’s one of the original regulars. So, for good reason, he’s very well respected and I’m glad he posts as much as he does. However, I do feel he tends to have a bit of a bearish lean in some of his public posts there. Again, imho as it’s subjective. And it’s by no means for nearly all posts. In addition, many times his bearish posts verify very well. I think that his desire to have quiet weekends sometimes influences his posts there toward the bear. Keep in mind that I prefer BB posters exhibit neither an explicit bearish nor an explicit bullish bias. I try my best to be perceived that way.

AAM: still has Ninoish peak next week Prior run (6 days ago):

Back to 1894-5, I have DJ of 1917-8 and 1976-7 as the coldest DJ in the E 1/2 of the US:

The E ATL avg anom has warmed as of 7/17 significantly: But OHC there as of 7/15 is still near the avg though climo warmer:

But 1916-7 was one of the most -PDO DJFs on record and 1917-8 averaged neutral.

From WB’s Joe D’Aleo today: That warm water east of Japan will move east in the North Pacific current north of the North Pacific Gyre. How much warmth will be carried east before the winter is something we will need to monitor. If it ends up staying more in mid-ocean, a very different winter story would evolve. This is just a heads up. When warm water in the Pacific has settled in the northeast Pacific, winters are brutal. Examples include 1976/77, 1977/78, 1993/94 and 1916/17, 1917/18 and 2013/14, 2014/15/ Those back to back cold winters turned the trend negative for 1996 to 2015. The winter snows also set records.

Today posted by Joe D’Aleo: Dr Viterito reported a new geothermal "hot spot" has emerged over the past 2 weeks, and it appears to be heating up the Kuroshio Current in the Pacific. Specifically, the Wilber 3 System has catalogued 76 seismic events since 6/21 off of the southern coast of Japan. The area impacted is a hydrothermal vent field to the west of the Ryukyu Islands, in an oceanic region known as the Okinawa Trough. See how the surface water has warmed in recent months: I was wondering if the recent very steep PDO drop started on 6/21/25. However, that actually started 6/8/25 rather than 6/21/25. By 6/21/25, the WCS daily PDO had already plunged to -2 from -1 as of 6/7/25:

At my location, the last 10 days have had an enormous contrast between the first 5 days and the last 5: 7/9-13: 6.35” total/rain every day with lots of street flooding and some flooding on my property/lots of standing water 7/14-18: only light amounts a couple of days totaling ~0.10”

Interesting dichotomy between the warm neutral subsurface and the cold neutral surface:

Agreed. But if it turns back down by the end of this month, the record NOAA PDO low of October 2024’s -3.80 would be in danger. For MTD, it’s likely in that vicinity now. That table goes way back to 1854.

Indeed, it’s not surprisingly bounced 0.50 from the extreme low of -3.45 of 7/8/25. This -2.95 WCS PDO translates to ~-3.75 NOAA PDO. NOAA’s dip on 7/8/25 was likely sub -4!

For the first time in weeks, the latest Euro Weeklies actually has a week forecasted to be slightly above the 2005-2024 average in the ATL basin. It’s for Aug 11-17. It has that week at 110% of 2005-24 avg: Just two runs ago it had that week at only 60% of 2005-24 avg: The highlighted areas have the highest chance (5%+) for a TC to be within 300 km:

Maybe this will help some: https://stormtrack.org/threads/highest-500-mb-height-in-history.8224/#:~:text=The source for 1994 onward,22 had no 600 line.

A pretty fast moving small shower has moved NW from offshore to here on the NE side of Invest 93L. There may be more to come within the next couple of hours. Edit: more quick showers came through hre in the early AM of 7/16, but I got nothing more than a few hundredths of an inch.

Today had a very tropical feel and look here thanks to the deep onshore flow to the north of Invest 93L coming in from several hundreds of miles offshore. How deep? It was at least to way up at 200 mb, which is near 40,000 feet! And this is expected to continue for much of the rest of this week. It is fairly rare that this far north experiences that deep of a tropical flow for that long of an uninterrupted period. This deep tropical flow: -gave us a constant pleasant ESE 10-15 mph breeze with gusts to over 20 -wind coming off the ocean kept the highs in the BN upper 80s but also kept dewpoints in the mid 70s -the skies much of the day had a tropical paradise look of towering cumulus coming off of the ocean mixed with deep blue -isolated showers came off of the ocean moving at a brisk pace and tended to diminish as they went more inland (I had no rainfall today)

Yesterday (7/14) was the first day in 6 without measurable rainfall at my location.

I recently did an analysis that showed that mid July season to date ACE has little predictive value for remainder of season ACE. Any correlation of season to date ACE for around this time of the season to ACE remaining in the season is minimal. So, it currently being lower than the normal low average ACE to date implies neither low, near average, nor high ACE to come the rest of the season. I’d say the same thing if ACE were currently high like it was in 2024. In other words, it essentially doesn’t tell us much of anything one way or the other.

My location in SAV, GA, had ~3” of sleet/snow/ZR Jan 21-22, 2025. Easily >2” of it was sleet at my location. That’s way more sleet than any other winter storm on record! Official records go back >150 years. The official record heaviest sleet was <1”. The liquid equivalent/melted precip at my location was ~1.15”! The last time that much liquid equiv of wintry precip fell in this area from one storm was way back with the icestorm of Jan 25-6, 1922, with its 1.36”. Due to most of the precip falling as sleet and the followup cold, it took a whopping 5 days to completely melt! The prior SAV frozen precip of any amount (including trace amounts) was the Jan 3, 2018 storm. This storm, similar to Jan 21-22, 2025, also had purely wintry precip (mix of ZR, sleet, and snow) with ~0.75” of liquid equiv at my location. At the time, it was also the largest amount of LE as well as heaviest ZR from one storm here since the Jan 25-6 storm of 1922! It took 4 days to melt due to most of the precip falling with temps in the mid to upper 20s and followup cold. The week Jan 1-7, 2018, was the coldest 7 day period in a number of decades! The 7 years of not even a T of wintry precip between the big 2018 and 2025 winter storms was the longest interval of no wintry precip in the SAV area at least back to the 1880s!

A new small cell literally just popped up here just before 5PM. No thunder yet, but raining pretty heavily. 5th afternoon in a row with rain! Edit 5:50 PM: That lasted ~25 minutes and there never was thunder. Now a 2nd cell with some heavy rain is coming in on the same track moving in an unusual direction, SSE. Hoping today’s totals don’t get too high because otherwise there’d be trouble here. Edit on 7/14: Yesterday (7/13) I ended up with ~0.75”, which brings the 5 day total for 7/9-13 up to a whopping 6.35” and MTD up to 7.25”!

I’m doing an AmericanWx ‘25 Open Championship contest in the PGA Tour thread of the Sports section in case anyone is interested. Several from here often participate in these:

Thanks Don. But as 30 year “normals” also rise, shouldn’t the cold anomaly coverage in cold shots at least in theory be as expansive as before?