GaWx

1. The 0Z UKMET maps just came out. Not only do they not have a TC as I already knew from the text output issued 2+ hours earlier, they don’t even have a closed low, similar to prior runs! Keep in mind that this is one of the better models. 2. OTOH, the 0Z Euro ens is about as active as the quite active 12Z. What a battle!

The 0Z Euro still has a TC on a similar path to the 12Z but it isn’t as strong as the 12Z had, especially in the W Caribbean, where the 12Z had at least a cat 3. This is at most a cat 1 there. Regardless, it would still be pretty amazing in early July to have a TC not only survive the Caribbean but also strengthen into a (near) H as it crosses it!

The UKMET (0Z) still doesn’t have a TC from this. The 0Z GEFS remains pretty active.

With an open mind due to curiosity, I did my own analysis of objective ENSO/Solar/QBO data back to 1958: 1) First of all, is La Niña/W QBO really extra favorable for major SSWs? La Niña/W: 5 major SSWs (2/26/99, 3/20/00, 1/24/09, 1/5/21, 2/16/23) La Niña/E: 5 major SSWs (1/20/71, 2/24/84, 2/11/01, 1/21/06, 2/12/18) El Nino/W: 5 major SSWs (1/30/58, 12/8/87, 3/14/88, 2/24/07, 1/2/19) El Nino/E: 12 major SSWs (11/30/58, 12/16/65, 2/23/66, 11/29/68, 1/9/77, 2/29/80, 1/23/87, 2/9/10, 3/24/10, 1/16/24, 2/18/24, 3/4/24) Thus, I see no evidence that La Niña/W QBO is extra favorable for major SSWs. The only one of the four combos analyzed that clearly is extra favorable for major SSWs is El Niño/E QBO, like we had last winter and hopefully will again during the winter of 2025-6. 2) Secondly, were the five La Niña/W major SSWs mainly near solar max? -Feb 1999: sunspots 98 and ~halfway between min and max. This, I consider this neutral solar. -Mar 2000: sunspots 218/1 yr pre solar max -Jan 2009: sunspots 1/solar min -Jan 2021: sunspots 10/1.5 yr post solar min -Feb 2023: sunspots 111/2 yrs pre solar max So, there was a mix and the avg sunspots of the 5 was 88, which is near longterm mean. Thus, I see no evidence of increased chance of major SSWs when La Niña/W is near solar max. To be clear, this analysis isn’t suggesting having a major SSW this winter is unlikely. Rather, it suggests it isn’t likely either and is instead only about a coin flip even with solar max. There have been 8 La Niña West winters since 1957-8: 1971-2, 1975-6, 1999-00, 2008-9, 2010-1, 2016-7, 2020-1, and 2022-3. So, 4 of these 8 (50%) La Niña/W winters had a major SSW. Out of curiosity, I decided to calculate the % of El Niño/E winters with at least one major SSW. These are the El Niño/E winters since 1957-8: 1958-9, 1965-6, 1968-9, 1976-7, 1979-80, 1986-7, 1991-2, 2009-10, 2014-5, and 2023-4. So, of these 10 El Niño/E winters, a whopping 8 (80%) had at least one major SSW! And the ratio of 12 majors during these 10 winters is even more impressive thanks to 3 of the 10 winters having 2+ of them! Thus, that’s even more reason to hope for El Niño next winter. —————————————— Edit: What % of La Niña/E winters had at least one major SSW? These were the 10 La Niña/E winters since 1957-8: 1970-1, 1974-5, 1983-4, 1995-6, 2000-1, 2005-6, 2007-8, 2011-2, 2017-8, and 2021-2. So, like for La Niña/W, half (5 of 10) of those had an SSW. What % of El Niño/W winters had 1+ SSWs? These were the 9 El Niño/W winters: 1957-8, 1963-4, 1977-8, 1982-3, 1987-8, 1994-5, 2006-7, 2015-6, and 2018-9. Out of the 9, 4 (44%) had at least one major SSW. ———————- Data sources: ENSO https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php Solar (monthly sunspots): https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/SN_m_tot_V2.0.txt QBO (30 mb): https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data Major SSW events (plus I added 2023 and 2024 events) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudden_stratospheric_warming @snowman19

Alright Ed, you can have at it if you want as it is now Invest 95L: https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=al952024

The NWS, which wasn’t quite as hot nor nearly as dry as the HRRR, did better than the HRRR. Verification of yesterday’s 6Z HRRR prog for temperature/dewpoint at 19Z/3PM EDT today: Richmond, VA: HRRR 103/52 vs actual 99/68 Raleigh, NC: HRRR 100/61 vs actual 96/66 Charlotte, NC: HRRR 102/48 vs actual 98/63 Columbia, SC: HRRR 103/58 vs actual 100/60 Florence, SC: HRRR 99/64 vs actual 94/73 Atlanta, GA: HRRR 101/45 vs actual 95/55 Augusta, GA: HRRR 103/46 vs actual 99/52 Brunswick, GA: HRRR 96/66 vs actual 91/78 Summary for 8 cities: -HRRR was too hot for all 8 with avg miss of +4.4 with range of +3 (Columbia) to +6 (Atlanta) -HRRR was too dry for all 8 with avg dewpoint miss of -9.4 with range -2 (Columbia) to -16 (Richmond) 3PM data sources: GA https://kamala.cod.edu/ga/latest.asus42.FFC.KFFC.html SC https://kamala.cod.edu/sc/latest.asus42.CAE.KCAE.html NC https://kamala.cod.edu/nc/latest.asus42.RAH.KRAH.html VA https://kamala.cod.edu/va/latest.asus41.AKQ.KAKQ.html

TW SW of CV: Once past the Lesser Antilles the 12Z Euro ensemble tracks most concentrated toward Cuba to Nicaragua corridor followed by good number hitting MX/TX/W LA while minority threaten PR to SE US with only very few recurving offshore the E US coast

12Z Euro ensemble is its most active run yet at Lesser Antilles ~July 1st

951 mb at 240 coming onto the coast of the Yucatan!

For TW SW of CV: 12Z Euro is much stronger as it has a TS on 7/1 in the Lesser Antilles and a hurricane later on in the Caribbean! I’m pretty sure we’ll need a separate thread for this soon. @Ed, snow and hurricane fanwant to start it?

12Z runs for TW SW of CV Islands: -GFS/CMC TS+ Lesser Antilles ~7/1; so CMC stronger than 0Z and similar to yesterday’s 12Z -ICON stronger low than 0Z/borderline TD? -UKMET still no TC through 168 -GEFS still rather active Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some development is possible during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form over the tropical Atlantic by the end of the week or this weekend while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Check this out for something fascinating at Augusta, GA (Bush): -noon was 93 with a dewpoint of 76 on a SE wind at 9 -1PM was 99 with a dewpoint way down at 58 on a SW wind at 13 gusting to 22!! That’s a heck of a boundary, a dry line of sorts that went through Augusta last hour! And it came in on SW winds!

Check this out CC and others for something fascinating at Augusta, GA (Bush): -noon was 93 with a dewpoint of 76 on a SE wind at 9 -1PM was 99 with a dewpoint way down at 58 on a SW wind at 13 gusting to 22!! That’s a heck of a boundary that went through there last hour, a dry line of sorts! And the drier air came in on SW winds!

But there’s no official downtown Atlanta station to see how hot downtown will be. So, we’ll never know what their actual will be. There hasn’t been an official downtown station there in many decades.

Regarding this map with forecasted highs: -Atlanta’s official station is the airport, not downtown. It is near the perimeter. Unfortunately, downtown doesn’t have an official station, which would be where the UHI center is typically strongest obviously. So, if the official Atlanta high were to be 98 as this map is forecasting, downtown could easily be over 100 if the winds are light enough. We’ll never know. -Atlanta has higher elevation than Dalton/Thomaston by 300 feet, Rome/Athens/Madison by 400 feet, Macon/Sandersville by 600 ft, and Columbus/Dublin by 800 ft.

For wave in E Atlantic, main 0Z Models: -GFS is by far its strongest run yet as it has a 975-7 mb H hitting the Windward Islands on July 1st, which then weakens and later dissipates in the Caribbean -CMC just has a weak low vs 12Z’s TS -ICON just has a weak low similar to 12Z -UKMET doesn’t have a TC just like the 12Z -GEFS is about as active as the 18Z. These last two runs are the strongest runs yet at the Lesser Antilles July 1-2 -0Z Euro is a bit more active than prior run with a defined LLC E of the Lesser Antilles though it is still a weak low (doesn’t look strong enough for TD imo) and then it dissipates as it enters the Caribbean TWO upped from 20% to 30% thru day 7: 2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave centered a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible late this week into early next week while it moves generally westward across the central and western tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

The HRRR maps being analyzed are for 3PM tomorrow (6/26), not today. I’ll compare them after then to see how they did. But indeed, low dewpoints and high heat were there today as you said. Will dewpoints be low enough and temps high enough tomorrow for the comparison? We’ll see!

1. The SE Caribbean tropical wave has just been designated as Invest 94L fwiw. 2. The 12Z GEFS/GEPS have a rather strong signal for a TC impacting the Lesser Antilles ~7/1-3. 3. The 12Z Euro has no TC unlike the prior two runs. Edit: But 12Z EPS is most active run yet.

The 12Z UKMET has nothing classified as a TC through the end of the run (day 7).

It appears to me that the new runs (12Z GFS and CMC) are developing what is already just offshore Africa. They both have a TS in the Windward Islands on Mon July 1st. If these happen to be right, the Atlantic will get a 2nd TS by July 1st.

Today’s SOI as expected per models has already gone positive from the strong negatives of just 2-3 days ago. It will rise quite a bit more in the coming days per model progs of Tahiti/Darwin SLP with Tahiti’s SLP going well above normal for June. It looks to peak near the 1017.5-1018 mb range on June 28th.

From what I saw elsewhere there’s a wave that is progged to move off Africa on Thursday that has some potential for development in the MDR per latest model consensus. Meanwhile, look how quiet it has been to this point relative to normal in the Pacific and N Indian (a mere 20%) despite the overall oceans’ near record warmth:

Here is the 6Z HRRR temperature map for 19Z (3PM EDT) tomorrow showing many non-mountain/non-coastal locations of VA/NC/SC/GA 101-104: Here is the 6Z HRRR dewpoint map for the same hour showing the same locations with 43-58 dewpoints: Comparing to NWS forecasts, these HRRR temperatures are several degrees hotter and dewpoints are significantly cooler. The HRRR dewpoints of 43-48 in the Charlotte, NC, to Macon/Columbus, GA, corridor look especially way too low. I’ll compare to reality tomorrow to see how well this HRRR run ends up verifying in these 4 states’ non-mountain/non-coastal locations with temperatures/dewpoints. I expect this run will verify with temperatures several degrees too hot most locations and dewpoints significantly too cool most locations.

The much wetter pattern vs last year at the same time has been helping immensely with keeping Key West and vicinity SSTs significantly lower. Last year June 10-24 KW buoy water averaged an astounding ~32C/89.6F thanks to the combo of drier than normal/near constant sunshine during the day/GW. This year that same period has averaged just under 30C/86.0F to the great relief of the coral. Key West Buoy data: https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/data/realtime2/KYWF1.txt

This post is related to my prior post by showing a great example of afternoon summer hot/low dewpoint bias on the short term GFS here in the SE. The GFS from just 2 days earlier had these 2m temperature progs as of 18Z (2PM EDT) today: What verified? In SC, the 2PM temperatures are here: https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KCAE/2406241810.asus42.CAE.html So, the SC 2PM temperatures included: CAE 96 vs GFS’ 102 and FLO 94 vs GFS’ 102. All actuals of major stations were 91-97 vs GFS range of 95-102. The GFS averaged a ~5 too hot on a run from just 48 hours earlier. In GA, the 2PM temperatures are here: https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KFFC/2406241810.asus42.FFC.html So, the GA 2PM temperatures included ATL 93 vs GFS’ 97, AGS 95 vs GFS’ 99, and SSI 95 vs GFS’ 100. Hottest in GA at major stations was 97 vs GFS’ hottest of 101. So, the GFS averaged ~4-5 too hot from just 48 hours earlier. These summer 2PM misses of 4-5+ too high are common down here. I said above that I thought it was related to too low dewpoints. The GFS from just 2 days earlier had these 2m dewpoint progs as of 18Z (2PM EDT) today: The actual 2PM dewpoints were these: CAE 68 vs GFS’ 61, FLO 72 vs GFS’ 65, ATL 64 vs GFS’ 54, and AGS 71 vs GFS’ 60. So, dewpoints were 7-11 too low. This combo of too hot temperatures and too low dewpoints on sunny summer afternoons is very common on the GFS in the short term at the very least down in the SE US. @donsutherland1@bluewave@chubbs@ChescoWx