GaWx

The latest versions of the extended climate models for next winter on Tropical Tidbits (CFS, CANSIPS, NMME) are all keeping the warmest NPac SST anomalies in the W 1/2 of the ocean and are thus maintaining a robust -PDO. The same can be said for the Weather Bell versions of the CANSIPS and Euro. However, for an unexplained reason, the Weather Bell SSTa CFS maps, which have major differences in various parts of the globe, have been suggesting on most runs a +PDO with a large cold tongue extending from SE of Japan E to just N of Hawaii and a strong warm area just off W N America. It makes no sense for the same model for the same period to show near polar opposite output. It looks to me like there’s a serious bug in the WB CFS output.

Does it matter that much exactly what month the peak is determined to have occurred (which I’d think would have to be after the fact, regardless) if the peak is indeed going to end up occuring in early 2025?

1. Consistent with this, note how frequent were -NAOs in winter mid-50s through early 70s. The winters since 2011-2 have been the exact opposite! 2. The only -NAO winters (sub -0.25 using the NOAA table’s values, which are slightly different from what your graph shows) since 1979-80 have all been in the general vicinity of solar minimums for the last four cycles. Coincidence? I don’t know but it at least looks like there may be a relationship in this age of rare -NAO winters. If so, the next good shot at one or two maybe near the end of the 2020s. @snowman19knows about this. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

1. Winter months with both -NAO and +PNA since 2000: 11 of 74 (15%) 12/2020, 2/2013, 1/2011, DJF 2009-10, 12/2005, 1/2004, 12/2002, 12/2001, 12/2000 2. Same for summer months: 17 of 72 (24%) JJA of 2023, 8/2021, 7/2020, 7/2019, 8/2019, 7/2016, 7/2015, 8/2014, 8/2011, 7/2010, 8/2010, 6/2009, 7/2009, 8/2008, 7/2007, 7/2005, 8/2004 So, 60% higher frequency of -NAO/+PNA for summer months vs winter months since 2000 Edit: contrast much higher since 2012 with only 2 of 38 (5%) for winter vs 10 of 36 (28%) for summer

I need to clarify something. Those are years that I listed. I went back and modified the post to prevent any more confusion. So, that wasn’t a huge 2 day jump from May 22nd to May 24th. Rather, that was a large rise from May of 2022’s hottest of 87.3 to May of 2024’s hottest of 92.3. Also, this 92.3 of 5/29/24 was 4.9 warmer than the avg of the hottest in Mays of 2005-22 as well as 2.2 warmer than that for any other May back at least to 2005. Good news is that KW buoy down to 87.3F this morning, which compares to 90.0F at same time on May 29th and 30th. As if 87.3F is cool lol. Indeed, Atlantic as a whole is boiling. I don’t get any snow way down here in an avg winter but I still prefer the winter not be mild. This hurts those chances.

Has anyone here read this? If so, any thoughts? https://theethicalskeptic.com/2020/02/16/the-climate-change-alternative-we-ignore-to-our-peril/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email Before anyone says he denies AGW, “I am a proponent of addressing anthropogenic global warming as a first priority for mankind. I first adopted the ‘Venus – runaway greenhouse effect’ paradigm (applied to Earth’s climate) after reading Carl Sagan’s groundbreaking work outlined in his book, The Cosmic Connection. Since that time, I’ve worked more extensively than most inside efforts targeting mitigation of volatile organic compounds, alkanes, methane, and carbon monoxide/dioxide contribution on the part of mankind.” and “I have shared in the grave concern over human contribution to the stark rise in global temperatures now obviously underway.”

The Key West buoy at 6Z on 6/1 (map time) can be confirmed to have been 89.4F/31.9C. It peaked at a May record breaking 92.3F/33.5C on 5/29/24! Before 2024, the record May high SST was 90.1F/32.3C, which was in 2023. Before 2023, the May record was 89.1F/31.7C (2017). Records go back to 2005.

Now look at the PDO: -3.04

Key West buoy SST in May of 2024 peaked way up at 33.5C/92.3F on 5/29/24! Records go back to 2005. The previous May’s hottest on record was the 32.3C/90.1F of 2023! Year/That May’s hottest KW SST 2024: 33.5C/92.3F hottest in May 2023: 32.3C/90.1F 2nd hottest in May 2022: 30.7C/87.3F 21: 31.4C/88.5F 20: 30.3C/86.5F 3rd coolest 19: 31.5C/88.7F 4th hottest 18: N/A 17: 31.7C/89.1F 3rd hottest 16: 30.9C/87.6F 15: 31.4C/88.5F 14: 29.7C/85.5F 2nd coolest 13: 30.7C/87.3F 12: 31.1C/88.0F 11: 30.5C/86.9F 10: 31.2C/88.2F 09: 30.8C/87.4F 08: 31.2C/88.2F 07: 29.0C/84.2F coolest 06: 30.8C/87.4F 05: 30.8C/87.4F 05-22 May hottest avg: 30.8C/87.4F For the period 2005-12, the hottest KW SST was 33.6C (in July). Compare that to the 33.5C of 5/29/24!

The swing from Nina to Nino leads to warming but not normally as early as the timing of the sudden sharp GW in 2023, which started about now. Why would AGW by itself cause such sharp GW? Its warming has been much more gradual. Thus I remain suspicious of other factors contributing, including Tonga. Perhaps El Nino had an earlier than normal influence. If so, why? RONI was still only neutral then though it had warmed from ~-1C in NDJ. But if it was, why hasn't it cooled back any yet? Maybe it really was mainly from AGW. I'm open minded.

I'm remaining open-minded about how much of the excess heat since 2023 can be connected to Hunga Tonga since it still hasn't been explained. The atmosphere is way too complex and Hunga Tonga was quite unique with regard to the volume of water vapor added to the stratosphere,

Just because we're about to have La Nina doesn't say anything about 2025-2029. And the paper's idea about a POSSIBLE multiyear El Nino before 2030 doesn't exclude La Nina in 2024-5. I'm at least going to wait to see what 2025-6 brings. Of course, even if we do have a multiyear Nino then, that wouldn't prove the connection to Hunga Tonga.

This same paper was put out in Aug of 2023 as per my 8/9/23 post quoted above. It appears the same one was just re-released on 5/27/24 and that's what Ryan is referring to. So, although Ryan refers to this as new, he doesn't realize it was first released 8 months ago. It is an interesting paper as it suggests that the significant effects may last til 2030 as Ryan says. Looking ahead to the possible effects on US winters 2025-6 through 2028-9 from the January of 2022 Tonga volcano, the chance of a multiyear El Niño MAY be enhanced while the volcano still has influence. Note how the DJF temperature anomaly pattern over the US comes rather close to a typical El Niño, including the cool SE and warm NW. Also, note especially figure 11d (see my link to August 2023 paper), which shows an El Ninolike Pacific SSTa pattern. From the paper: "Thus, it is possible that the SWV forcing from the eruption would favor a positive phase of ENSO on a multi-year timescale, but further work is required to confirm this, in particular with a model including fully interactive ocean and cloud feedbacks."

The WCS daily PDO as of 5/28/24 has plunged further to -2.66, the lowest since at least late Oct of 2022 (not just since Sep of 2023, which dipped as low as ~-2.63 as this graph shows). That means that the equivalent NOAA daily PDO would likely be in the general vicinity of -3.4 to -3.7! The May 2024 NOAA PDO is likely going to be down to the -2.5 to -2.9 range as the WCS May 2024 PDO drops to ~-1.8 to -1.9.

21/10/5

1. Latest (5/25/24) BoM model run sticking with only down to -0.07 for lowest ONI (not RONI) in autumn (SON): But keep in mind that it had a large warm bias last year. Its 5/20/23 run had SON ONI way up at +2.53 or 0.75 warmer than +1.78 actual: The next BoM run (6/3/23) had SON ONI even warmer (+2.73), which verified 0.95 too warm! 2. In stark contrast, the UKMET May of 2024 run has ASO ONI way down at -1.01 (though that’s actually significantly warmer than its prior run for JAS of -1.28): But unlike the way too warm BoM, the May of 2023 UKMET run for ASO ONI was nearly spot on with its +1.84 prog, a mere 0.06 too warm: 3. So, between the latest BoM and UK, I heavily favor the latest UK to end up the closer of the two for this fall’s ONI. Not necessarily nearly spot on but at least closer. And keep in mind that RONI would undoubtedly be significantly cooler than ONI.

No, it is the opposite because RONI looks at the contrast better with the surrounding extra warm waters that were caused by GW. With this last El Nino, RONI peak was only high end moderate vs ONI peak of borderline strong/super-strong. So, RONI was ~0.5C cooler than ONI. For the upcoming La Nina, there's a good chance for a similar relationship where ONI dips only to, say, -1.0 or -1.4 while RONI dips to, say, -1.5 or -1.8 meaning RONI once again cooler.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

Chuck, 1. The record NOAA -PDO is -2.61 (1948-9). (Interestingly, that winter was neutral ENSO rather than La Niña.) This month has been near that avg. But I think it will still be a big challenge for the upcoming winter to avg near that strong even with the help of La Niña since 1948-9 was so phenomenally strong. The next strongest is -2.34 (2021-2)(moderate La Niña), 3rd strongest is -2.25 (1955-6)(strong La Niña, and 4th is -2.09 (1872-3)(weak La Niña). So, four sub -2 PDO winters over the last 170 years or one every 42.5 winters on avg. Could we get the 5th sub -2 PDO this winter? Yes, but the odds would be higher for -1.5 to -2.0 based on the data showing 16 winters in that range (4 times the frequency of sub -2) or ~one every 11 winters. That’s my educated guess as of now. We’ll see! 2. When you say “warmer winter”, do you mean warmer than last winter or just warmer than normal?

Another thunderstorm here late this afternoon. Only light rainfall (~0.10”).

- The equivalent current RONI is likely already down to ~-0.5 vs the equivalent ONI of ~+0.1. - There have been 21 sub -1.75 NOAA PDO Mays on record. Of those, 19 of the subsequent winters had a -PDO. The other 2, 1880-1 (Nino) and 1922-3 (neutral) had a neutral PDO. Edit: - There have been 22 +1.25+ NOAA PDO Mays on record. Of those, only 3 of the subsequent winters had a -PDO (all 3 followed mod+ El Niños and lead to cold neutral winters) vs 6 neutral and 13 +PDO. - So, correlation of May to winter PDO strong. - Thus with almost certain La Niña upcoming, -PDO this winter very likely

The WCS PDO for May is headed for ~-1.8. Based on the avg ratio between the PDO of WCS and NOAA, I’m projecting the NOAA May PDO will come out to ~-2.7 (-2.5 to -2.9), easily the lowest in May since 1950. Even a -2.45 would be the lowest May since 1950:

Thunderstorms with very heavy rain and lots of CTG lightning here the last 45 minutes. Rainfall really adding up with the typical street flooding. Severe warned nearby. I estimate a little over an inch.

The following tweet’s image clearly illustrates the idea of RONI, which is already nearing the -0.5 threshold of La Niña (look at all of the blue along the equator in the E and C Pacific) vs the equivalent to ONI, which is still only down to ~+0.2 per OISST and CRW. https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1793981601132798393 “This map compares current sea surface temperature anomalies with the global average anomaly. Rather than using a 30-year normal to compute anomalies, this method more clearly reveals areas that are unusually warm or cool relative to the rest of the planet. This is important”

This GW over-exaggerated the strength of this last El Niño as it made it appear to peak at borderline strong/super (per ONI) vs it for all practical purposes really peaking at borderline moderate/strong (per RONI). In other words, the contrast with surrounding tropical waters wasn’t as large as the ONI suggested. The MEI suggested an even weaker Nino peak.