GaWx

I took the sunspot cycle graph I posted above and drew in yellow lines when the 6 -NAO winters since 1979-80 occurred to give a better view of where they were in the solar cycles. You can clearly see that they were all during the weak parts of all of the cycles (1-2 during each weak period): sunspots averaged only 18 (range 6-33) vs 1900-2022 avg of 85 and were within 2 yrs of a min:

This is what I posted in last year’s ENSO thread on 8/23/23: Over the last 44 winters, -NAOs (I define as sub -0.25) for DJF have been few and far between: 1984-5: (NAO -0.70) (moderate La Niña) headed down in cycle 21 with limited sunspots averaging only 20/month; this was 20 months before the minimum of Sept 1986 1986-7: (NAO -0.30) (moderate El Niño) very early in cycle 22 four months after the Sept 86 minimum with very limited sunspots of only 6/month 1995-6: (NAO -0.62) (moderate La Niña) headed down in cycle 22 with limited sunspots of only 12/month nine months before Sept 1996 minimum 2009-10: (NAO -1.67) (strong El Niño) one year into cycle 24 at 13 months after the Dec 2008 minimum just starting to head upward but with still limited sunspots of only 22/month 2010-11: (NAO -0.68) (strong La Niña) two years into cycle 24 at 25 months after the Dec 2008 minimum headed further up but still low at 33/month 2020-1: (NAO -0.42) (moderate La Niña) early into cycle 25 at 13 months after the Dec of 2019 minimum just starting to head up but still with limited sunspots of only 14/month --------------------- Note that there has been either one or two -NAO winters during each of the last four quiet portions of the cycles! So, based on the last 44 years of -NAO winters, the data clearly shows that being within two years of a minimum (ascending or descending) along with limited sunspots (so, nowhere near a cycle max) has given the best chance for a -NAO winter. The average distance from minimum was only 14 months. So, for these last six -NAO winters, the average monthly sunspots were all low to very low: 20, 6, 12, 22, 33, and 14 for an average of only 18. This 18 compares to the longtime average monthly sunspots of 85 (based on 1900-2022 data). Monthly NAO since 1950: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table Monthly sunspots: https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/SN_m_tot_V2.0.txt @Stormchaserchuck1@Terpeast

Thank you, Chuck. Great stuff! This tells me it isn’t a coincidence that the only 6 -NAO winters since 1979-80 were during weak portions of the solar cycle. Thus, I’m looking for the next good shot at a -NAO winter or two to be in the late 2020s to early 2030s.

2009-10 & 10-11 were when sunspots were very low to low and 1-2 yrs after a min. Only 4 other winters since 1979-80 had a DJF averaged sub -0.25 NAO and they also all had low sunspots/were within 2 yrs of a min: 1984-5, 1986-7, 1995-6, and 2020-1. All 6 of these -NAO winters had <35 sunspot #/month. Coincidence? 35 is well under the average/median of upper double digits. All of the last 4 solar mins had either 1 or 2 -NAO winters within 2 yrs of the min.

-July 2023 was by far the hottest month of any on record with 102.7. Old record: 99.1 Aug 2020. - June 1974 18 days: hottest SINGLE day avg 100.5 - So we know they’re not even close. The only Q I’d have is how much of the difference could be attributed to increased UHI: -Metro was 1.1 million 1974 but was 5.7 million 2023. https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/cities/23099/phoenix/population

Consensus for Nov shows coolest in 3/3.4 with warmest in 4.

Tropical Storm #Beryl has strengthened and now has max winds of 60 mph. Beryl is the strongest June tropical storm this far east (~47°W) in the tropical Atlantic (<23.5°N) on record. https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1807023251408683495

SOI dailies as expected came up strongly the last few days (avg of +21 last 5 days), largely because of quite high Tahiti SLPs. The peak was 1018.3. Going back to 1991, only 1996 had a higher Tahiti peak in June though 2020 peaked higher in late May. Meanwhile, OISST continues ~+0.4.

I just realized there may be a way the cruise gets to all of the ports of call on the itinerary. The planned stops were Cozumel on 7/1, Grand Cayman (GC) on 7/2, Jamaica on 7/3, and NW Bahamas on 7/5. I wonder if they could reverse most of it and do this: Jamaica on 7/1, GC on 7/2, Cozumel on 7/3, and then hightail it out of there to NW Bahamas 7/4. I might suggest that lmao.

Thanks for the update. The cruise schedule is for Grand Cayman (GC) on 7/2, when Beryl would be ~750-500 miles ESE. But I suppose they may even cancel the 7/2 GC visit to stay well ahead of the storm and not have to rush from there. So, after the 7/1 planned stop in Cozumel, it appears the itinerary will change drastically between then and the planned 7/5 Bahamas stop. I wonder what they’ll do. Maybe add another Yucatan stop before getting out of harm’s way?

Does anyone have a feel for the risk to Jamaica for July 3rd? Relatives of mine have a cruise going there then and I haven’t had any time to look at progs. TIA

I still wonder about the true impact of the Hunga Tonga underwater eruption and the huge amount of water vapor emitted up into the stratosphere, which supposedly will linger for several more years.

Some of my relatives have a long ago planned cruise that starts over weekend from FL and goes to Yucatan/Caymans through 7/2. But then goes to Jamaica on 7/3, Bahamas 7/5, and then back to FL. I said all good thru 7/2 but Jamaica on 7/3 COULD get tricky and smaller chance of an issue in Bahamas+. Any other opinions would be appreciated. Does that sound about right? TIA

The 12Z GFS/ICON/CMC/Euro/UKMET/GEFS/GEPS look pretty similar to their respective earlier runs. Im still waiting to see if the ICON and especially UKMET are going to do more with this. The JMA fwiw is significantly stronger through the Caribbean with a strong TS in the W Car. The Euro ens mean looks a bit further SW with just a few either recurving off the SE or hitting FL. Many hit from Nicaragua N to the central US Gulf coast.

You’re 100% sure there won’t be El Niño in 2025-6? I’m not predicting one as I’m not even trying to predict 2025-6 this early. But I’m at least open to one then due to normal uncertainty. I read a paper I posted about that suggests a higher than normal chance of a multiyear El Niño later this decade due to the underwater Hunga Tonga volcanic eruption fwiw. But I’m not hanging my hat on that. Just being open minded. Also, arguably, 2023-4 Nino was only moderate based on RONI and MEI. Note that there was 1963-4 (mod Nino) followed by 1964-5 (weak Niña) followed by strong Nino (1965-6). In addition, though all were weak there was 2004-5 (Nino), 2005-6 (Niña), and 2006-7 (Nino). Also consider these two groups from before 1950 per Eric Webb: -1902-3 (strong Nino), 1903-4 (weak Nina), 1904-5 (moderate Nino) -1923-4 (mod Nino), 1924-5 (mod Niña), 1925-6 (strong Nino)

I agree that having an actual TD and especially TS first exist before the Lesser Antilles would increase the chance of a H in the Caribbean though even that would still be far from a guarantee of course and not even likely due to the frequency of struggle in the E Car. The Euro having it not only not struggle there and instead steadily strengthen there should be taken with a huge grain at this early stage imho, especially with the GFS doing the opposite.

Thanks, Charlie. Check these hourlies out from last evening: 7PM AUGUSTA-BUSH MOSUNNY 99 49 18 SW13 29.72 HX 96 TC 37 AUGUSTA-DANIEL MOSUNNY 99 52 20 SW8 29.75F HX 96 TC 37 8PM AUGUSTA-BUSH FAIR 89 72 56 SE12 29.74R HX 96 TC 32 6HR MIN TEMP: 89; 6HR MAX TEMP: 103; AUGUSTA-DANIEL FAIR 97 53 22 SW9 29.77R HX 94 TC 36 6HR MIN TEMP: 97; 6HR MAX TEMP: 103; 9PM AUGUSTA-BUSH CLEAR 88 68 51 S15G29 29.76R HX 91 TC 31 AUGUSTA-DANIEL CLEAR 90 73 57 S10G20 29.78R HX 98 TC 32 Note that from 7PM to 8PM Bush’s winds shifted from that very dry/hot SW direction to a much cooler/higher dewpoint (10 cooler/23 higher!) SE direction. But Daniel didn’t shift to SE and thus hardly changed. But then Daniel had the big change from 8PM to 9PM after their winds finally shifted away from the hot/dry SW winds.

1. The 0Z UKMET maps just came out. Not only do they not have a TC as I already knew from the text output issued 2+ hours earlier, they don’t even have a closed low, similar to prior runs! Keep in mind that this is one of the better models. 2. OTOH, the 0Z Euro ens is about as active as the quite active 12Z. What a battle!

The 0Z Euro still has a TC on a similar path to the 12Z but it isn’t as strong as the 12Z had, especially in the W Caribbean, where the 12Z had at least a cat 3. This is at most a cat 1 there. Regardless, it would still be pretty amazing in early July to have a TC not only survive the Caribbean but also strengthen into a (near) H as it crosses it!

The UKMET (0Z) still doesn’t have a TC from this. The 0Z GEFS remains pretty active.

With an open mind due to curiosity, I did my own analysis of objective ENSO/Solar/QBO data back to 1958: 1) First of all, is La Niña/W QBO really extra favorable for major SSWs? La Niña/W: 5 major SSWs (2/26/99, 3/20/00, 1/24/09, 1/5/21, 2/16/23) La Niña/E: 5 major SSWs (1/20/71, 2/24/84, 2/11/01, 1/21/06, 2/12/18) El Nino/W: 5 major SSWs (1/30/58, 12/8/87, 3/14/88, 2/24/07, 1/2/19) El Nino/E: 12 major SSWs (11/30/58, 12/16/65, 2/23/66, 11/29/68, 1/9/77, 2/29/80, 1/23/87, 2/9/10, 3/24/10, 1/16/24, 2/18/24, 3/4/24) Thus, I see no evidence that La Niña/W QBO is extra favorable for major SSWs. The only one of the four combos analyzed that clearly is extra favorable for major SSWs is El Niño/E QBO, like we had last winter and hopefully will again during the winter of 2025-6. 2) Secondly, were the five La Niña/W major SSWs mainly near solar max? -Feb 1999: sunspots 98 and ~halfway between min and max. This, I consider this neutral solar. -Mar 2000: sunspots 218/1 yr pre solar max -Jan 2009: sunspots 1/solar min -Jan 2021: sunspots 10/1.5 yr post solar min -Feb 2023: sunspots 111/2 yrs pre solar max So, there was a mix and the avg sunspots of the 5 was 88, which is near longterm mean. Thus, I see no evidence of increased chance of major SSWs when La Niña/W is near solar max. To be clear, this analysis isn’t suggesting having a major SSW this winter is unlikely. Rather, it suggests it isn’t likely either and is instead only about a coin flip even with solar max. There have been 8 La Niña West winters since 1957-8: 1971-2, 1975-6, 1999-00, 2008-9, 2010-1, 2016-7, 2020-1, and 2022-3. So, 4 of these 8 (50%) La Niña/W winters had a major SSW. Out of curiosity, I decided to calculate the % of El Niño/E winters with at least one major SSW. These are the El Niño/E winters since 1957-8: 1958-9, 1965-6, 1968-9, 1976-7, 1979-80, 1986-7, 1991-2, 2009-10, 2014-5, and 2023-4. So, of these 10 El Niño/E winters, a whopping 8 (80%) had at least one major SSW! And the ratio of 12 majors during these 10 winters is even more impressive thanks to 3 of the 10 winters having 2+ of them! Thus, that’s even more reason to hope for El Niño next winter. —————————————— Edit: What % of La Niña/E winters had at least one major SSW? These were the 10 La Niña/E winters since 1957-8: 1970-1, 1974-5, 1983-4, 1995-6, 2000-1, 2005-6, 2007-8, 2011-2, 2017-8, and 2021-2. So, like for La Niña/W, half (5 of 10) of those had an SSW. What % of El Niño/W winters had 1+ SSWs? These were the 9 El Niño/W winters: 1957-8, 1963-4, 1977-8, 1982-3, 1987-8, 1994-5, 2006-7, 2015-6, and 2018-9. Out of the 9, 4 (44%) had at least one major SSW. ———————- Data sources: ENSO https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php Solar (monthly sunspots): https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/SN_m_tot_V2.0.txt QBO (30 mb): https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data Major SSW events (plus I added 2023 and 2024 events) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudden_stratospheric_warming @snowman19

Alright Ed, you can have at it if you want as it is now Invest 95L: https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=al952024

The NWS, which wasn’t quite as hot nor nearly as dry as the HRRR, did better than the HRRR. Verification of yesterday’s 6Z HRRR prog for temperature/dewpoint at 19Z/3PM EDT today: Richmond, VA: HRRR 103/52 vs actual 99/68 Raleigh, NC: HRRR 100/61 vs actual 96/66 Charlotte, NC: HRRR 102/48 vs actual 98/63 Columbia, SC: HRRR 103/58 vs actual 100/60 Florence, SC: HRRR 99/64 vs actual 94/73 Atlanta, GA: HRRR 101/45 vs actual 95/55 Augusta, GA: HRRR 103/46 vs actual 99/52 Brunswick, GA: HRRR 96/66 vs actual 91/78 Summary for 8 cities: -HRRR was too hot for all 8 with avg miss of +4.4 with range of +3 (Columbia) to +6 (Atlanta) -HRRR was too dry for all 8 with avg dewpoint miss of -9.4 with range -2 (Columbia) to -16 (Richmond) 3PM data sources: GA https://kamala.cod.edu/ga/latest.asus42.FFC.KFFC.html SC https://kamala.cod.edu/sc/latest.asus42.CAE.KCAE.html NC https://kamala.cod.edu/nc/latest.asus42.RAH.KRAH.html VA https://kamala.cod.edu/va/latest.asus41.AKQ.KAKQ.html

TW SW of CV: Once past the Lesser Antilles the 12Z Euro ensemble tracks most concentrated toward Cuba to Nicaragua corridor followed by good number hitting MX/TX/W LA while minority threaten PR to SE US with only very few recurving offshore the E US coast

12Z Euro ensemble is its most active run yet at Lesser Antilles ~July 1st