GaWx

Why did the upper 50m anoms E of 135W warm so much June 3-19 (up to +2 to +3+ from <0)?

The LLC per radar/satellite appears to have been moving close to due W instead of WNW the last couple of hours. It is ~40 miles E of FL/GA border.

An outer band of Invest 92L showers came through here a couple of hours ago. The rain wasn’t heavy and it didn’t last long. Interesting to see though. It is breezy today with ENE winds but less windy than the E winds of the last few days. The sky has had a tropical partly to mostly cloudy look today. 92L has helped to bring in higher dewpoints today of 70s vs mid 60s the last few days.

A outer band of Invest 92L showers came through here a couple of hours ago. The rain wasn’t heavy and it didn’t last long. Interesting to see though. It is breezy today but less windy than the last few days. The sky has had a tropical partly to mostly cloudy look today.

New convection has popped up since the special TWO was released and is very close to the center, which is now over the Gulf Stream with its 83-84F SSTs. Is that enough to go TD?

So, center is on the far N edge of the main convection. Is this organized enough to warrant TD status?

92L is now roughly centered over the Gulf Stream. So, SSTs have risen from yesterday’s ~81F to about the warmest to be crossed or in the 83-84F range. These warmest waters extend W to ~80 west long. Then they cool back to 81-2F to the coast.

This is the closest offshore buoy to 92L, near 28.9N, 78.5W, vs 92L being roughly 30N, 79.5W, meaning the buoy is ~100 miles SE of 92L. That may be too far away to be of value due to the tiny size of 92L. Fwiw, it has 10 knot S winds, SLP of 1019 mb, dewpoint of 76F, and RH of 89%: Station 41010 NDBC Location: 28.878N 78.467W Date: Fri, 21 Jun 2024 13:10:00 UTC Winds: S (180°) at 9.7 kt gusting to 13.6 kt Atmospheric Pressure: 30.08 in Air Temperature: 79.9 F Dew Point: 76.3 F Water Temperature: 80.6 F

This appears to be the closest buoy to 92L with it at 28.9N, 78.5W or 120 nm E of Cape Canaveral. So, perhaps WSW of 92L’s center: Station 41010 NDBC Location: 28.878N 78.467W Date: Fri, 21 Jun 2024 04:00:00 UTC Winds: ENE (60°) at 7.8 kt gusting to 9.7 kt Atmospheric Pressure: 30.06 in and rising Air Temperature: 79.0 F Dew Point: 75.6 F Water Temperature: 80.6 F

The 18Z GFS progged IR satellite view for 9PM EDT isn’t anywhere close to the actual 9PM IR image!

It is getting better organized imo and we’re only a little after DMIN. In addition, it is headed toward significantly warmer SSTs in the Gulf Stream. SSTs where it is now (near 29N, 77W) are only ~81 F, but they rise to a peak of ~84 F in the Gulf Stream.

Upped from 40% to 50%: NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center has written the last advisory on the remnants of Alberto, which are located inland over northeastern Mexico. 1. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92): Satellite imagery shows that shower activity associated with the area of low pressure located about 175 miles north-northeast of the northern Bahamas has become a little better organized during the past 24 hours. However, earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicated that the system does not have a well-defined circulation. Environmental conditions remain marginally conducive for additional development and this system could become a tropical depression while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. The system is expected to approach the northeastern coast of Florida or the Georgia coast early on Friday, and interests there should monitor the progress of the system. Another Air Force Reserve aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Friday morning, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Maybe they don’t think it is capable of reaching TS status. If they currently think TD at most, would a PTC we warranted?

SSTs near the LLC are ~81-82F but rise to ~84 in the Gulf Stream, which is centered near 80W where this is headed.

Light W winds found by recon and newest convection appears to be just N of the LLC of Invest 92L.

Recon is on the way

Now up to 40% as of 8AM

June landfalls NE MX N of 20N/ENSO/E US winter 2024: Alberto TS + possible 2nd/likely Nina/TBD 2016: Danielle TS/mod Niña/mild 2011: Arlene TS/mod Niña/mild 2010: Alex H/strong Niña/cold 2005: Bret TS/weak Niña/normal 1959: Beulah TD/neutral/mild 1958: Alma TS/weak Nino/cool to cold 1954: Alice H/weak Niña/normal 1936: #2 TS/neutral/mild 1924: #1 TS/mod Niña/normal to mild 1922: #1 TS/cold neutral/cool to mild 1865: #2 TS/weak Nino/no data The # of CONUS hurricane landfalls for those seasons averaged near normal (2.2) but were all over the map (0 to 6). Year: CONUS H landfalls 2024: TBD 2016: 2 2011: 1 2010: 0 2005: 6 1959: 3 1958: 1 1954: 3 1936: 3 1924: 3 1922: 0 1865: 2

I just happened to check last night to see how rare this has been. There have been only 12 years since 1851 with a TS+ hitting NE MX in June. But 5 have been just since 2005! Keep in mind there’s a chance there will end up being not just one but two (first time on record). Here’s the data along with fall/winter ENSO (using RONI for 1950+ and Webb ONI pre 1950) and E US winter temperatures: June landfalls NE MX N of 20N/ENSO/E US winter 2024: Alberto TS + possible 2nd/likely Nina/?? 2016: Danielle TS/mod Niña/mild 2011: Arlene TS/mod Niña/mild 2010: Alex H/strong Niña/cold 2005: Bret TS/weak Niña/normal 1959: Beulah TD/neutral/mild 1958: Alma TS/weak Nino/cool to cold 1954: Alice H/weak Niña/normal 1936: #2 TS/neutral/mild 1924: #1 TS/mod Niña/normal to mild 1922: #1 TS/cold neutral/cool to mild 1865: #2 TS/weak Nino/no data The # of CONUS hurricane landfalls for those seasons averaged near normal (2.2) but were all over the map (0 to 6). Year: CONUS H landfalls 2016: 2 2011: 1 2010: 0 2005: 6 1959: 3 1958: 1 1954: 3 1936: 3 1924: 3 1922: 0 1865: 2

Invest 92L was designated earlier this evening and is headed WNW/NW toward the SE coast early Fri. I’m extra interested in following this despite pretty low odds of it becoming a TD because it is headed toward (near) my area and may bring some rain late week, regardless. It would be nice if it could bring decent rains to the very dry areas but that’s not looking likely as of now. Here’s the thread for anyone interested:

I started an Invest 92L thread: @WxWatcher007@ed2kayak

The area in the SW Atlantic being watched since the weekend was designated Invest 92L earlier this evening. This evening’s TWO also raised odds of TCG back up from 20% to the Saturday max of 30%. Although several models had this as either a TD or TS landfalling in the SE US Thu/Fri on at least one run on Saturday (GFS/Euro/UKMET/ICON) and the GFS continued that into Sunday, no model has shown a TC for the last couple of days. Instead they all have been showing either a very weak LLC or just a trough. Since this is likely headed toward (fairly close to) my general area and will probably give me at least a little rain late week, I’m following this pretty closely despite odds still being pretty low for TCG. Even if it there’s no TCG, it will still be interesting to track. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Alberto, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. 1. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92): A small area of low pressure has formed about 300 miles east of the northwestern Bahamas this evening with disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. While environmental conditions are only marginally conducive due to nearby dry air, further development of this system is possible while the low moves west-northwestward and approaches the northeastern coast of Florida or Georgia early on Friday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Based on the TWO image, it appears that the NHC is raising the chance from 20% to 30%. I didn’t expect that. I don’t see the text yet. Here it is: Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92): A small area of low pressure has formed about 300 miles east of the northwestern Bahamas this evening with disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. While environmental conditions are only marginally conducive due to nearby dry air, further development of this system is possible while the low moves west-northwestward and approaches the northeastern coast of Florida or Georgia early on Friday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Regarding the SW Atlantic system, they just designated this as Invest 92L though the TWO chances remain low: Southwestern Atlantic Ocean: An area of showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles east of the Bahamas is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for some gradual development of this system during the next few days while it moves westward or west-northwestward. The system is forecast to approach the coast of the southeastern United States by Friday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. Currently, no model has a TC from this. At most the models have a very weak low and more like a trough. But you never know for sure.

Alberto to be named as of 11AM advisory per bottom of this: https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/ATCF/NHC/bal012024.dat