GaWx

The cruise with close relatives of mine on it that amazingly had Jamaica as a stop tomorrow (no not a hurricane chasing ship lol) had already canceled that stop two days ago since that was a no brainer. But they did end up going to Grand Cayman today. They left there a couple of hours ago and are headed NW to the GOM. Looking at the map of ships, I’m surprised to see another cruise ship only 100 miles NW of Jamaica this close in time to the storm. But it is hauling butt to the NW at 25 mph. See it below (dark blue arrow) along with the circular area with no ships where Beryl is:

My guess based on the past is a drop of one category from where it is when it first encounters the island. But it could subsequently gain that category back soon after passing it by.

The high Jamaican mtns will almost certainly disrupt and weaken Beryl at least while over it or passing it. How much and for how long is the big question. It has mtns over 7K feet high in the E portion! Almost before Gilbert left the island, it started to rapidly strengthen. Then that storm became a monster.

The chance for Beryl to end up in the group of worst storms to affect Jamaica since 1950 is unfortunately increasing. Those worst storms are Dean (2007), Ivan (2004), Gilbert (1988), and Charlie (1951). Dean and Ivan missed a little to the S while Gilbert and Charlie went right over it lengthwise. All 4 were MHs at/near Jamaica. Gilbert appears to have been the worst though I’m not sure as they were all bad.

Unfortunately for Jamaica, when looking at analogous tracks with a solid speed of movement from the E or ESE at/near Jamaica, I’m kind of discouraged. These storms, 1951’s Charlie, 1974’s Carmen, 1988’s Gilbert, 2001’s Iris, 2004’s Charley and Ivan, 2005’s Dennis and Emily, and Dean of 2007 either only weakened slightly, were steady, or strengthened on the way to Jamaica. So, these analogs have been suggesting that Beryl should remain a MH til impact with or a slight miss of Jamaica. Evidently, it is probably going to be too far S of Hispaniola for its mtns to disrupt it significantly.

I’m doing what RONI does, comparing Nino 3.4 anomaly to the concurrent avg worldwide tropical ocean anomaly (20N to 20S).

BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 17A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 800 PM EDT Tue Jul 02 2024 ...BERYL EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 71.7W ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Chetumal to Cabo Catoche. The government of Belize has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from south of Chetumal to Belize City.

18Z Euro vs 12Z slightly N at Jamaica (right over it) followed by 70 miles further N at Yucatan and 150 miles further NE in BoC, where run ends at 90. Implies much further N landfall in W GOM had it gone further.

18Z ICON sticking to its much further N guns.

Indeed. Even if you use 1961-90 normals for 72-3, it was still much colder in the NE US in 72-3. Also, 72-3 was much wetter than 23-4 in the SE. Furthermore, in addition to the historic Feb snowstorm, there was a historic Jan icestorm in some areas including Atlanta area in 73. Even way down here there was a very rare over 3” of snow! In sharp contrast, Atlanta and many areas of the SE had no wintry precip in 23-4. There hasn’t even been a flake here since Jan of 2018 during the longest wintry precip drought on record here.

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 500 PM EDT Tue Jul 02 2024 The cloud pattern of Beryl has become a little less organized since the last reconnaissance aircraft left the storm near 17Z. While the eyewall cloud tops have cooled, the eye has become ragged and less distinct inside the central dense overcast, and the overall cloud pattern is becoming elongated due to shear. Objective intensity estimates suggest that the hurricane has weakened a little in the past few hours, but the advisory intensity will be held at 135 kt until the arrival of the next aircraft missions near 00Z. The initial motion is a quick 290/19 kt. A strong subtropical ridge centered over the southern United States will continue to steer Beryl west-northwestward to westward across the central and northwestern Caribbean for the next few days, and this motion should bring the center near Jamaica in about 24 h, near the Cayman Islands in about 36 h, and near the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico around 60-72 h. After that, there remains a significant spread in the track guidance when Beryl emerges into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, due mainly to model differences in the strength and location of a break in the subtropical ridge over the southern United States. The GFS shows a more northerly motion during this time, while the ECMWF and UKMET forecast a more westerly motion. This part of forecast track lies between these extremes near the consensus models and has a higher than normal amount of uncertainty. The intensity forecast also continues to be uncertain. The models are in good agreement that Beryl should steadily weaken during the next 60 h due to shear and dry air entrainment, but the models show a slower rate of weakening than previously. Based on this, the new intensity forecast calls for Beryl to still be a major hurricane when it passes near Jamaica, at or near major hurricane strength when it passes the Cayman Islands, and still be a hurricane when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula. This part of the forecast lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. There remains considerable spread in the intensity guidance when Beryl emerges over the Gulf of Mexico, although there is somewhat better agreement that the cyclone will intensify some while crossing the Gulf. The new forecast follows this trend and lies near the middle of the spread-out intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 15.9N 70.8W 135 KT 155 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 16.7N 73.6W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 17.7N 77.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 18.5N 80.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 19.1N 83.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 05/0600Z 19.7N 87.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 20.7N 89.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 96H 06/1800Z 22.5N 94.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 07/1800Z 24.5N 97.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

5PM NHC: Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 500 PM EDT Tue Jul 02 2024 ...EYE OF BERYL MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA... ...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 70.8W ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Beryl is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast during the next day or two. However, Beryl is forecast to be at or near major hurricane intensity while it passes near Jamaica on Wednesday and the Cayman Islands on Wednesday night. Additional weakening is expected thereafter, though Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km).

Based on 12Z runs I assume since 18Z runs not out yet. Those maps have a lag. Biggest S shift of 12Zs was UKMET I believe.

Good stuff! I see that the greatest increase is in the Midwest. I wonder what % of that heavy precip increase is due to increased crop sizes/transpiration/RH/dewpoints, which is itself partially related to AGW. Also, I bet that slightly increased rainfall rates from TCs along with slightly slower avg speed of movement (both related to AGW) have contributed a good bit to the TX/S Plains and E US increases.

The ICON has some company at 12Z as the JMA (I know, not at all one of the better models) has Beryl hit Galveston. Also, the NAVGEM (I know it is probably an even worse model in general) has a hit at mid-TX coast. So, both of these are very much in the fwiw category.

12Z summary of the main/least inaccurate globals: 1) Euro and UKMET very similar in the vicinity of Tampico on S end 2) ICON TX/LA border on N end 3) in between are CMC halfway between Tampico and the TX border and the GFS at MX/TX border

12Z Euro: 1) slightly further S than prior 3 runs at Jamaica with it barely offshore, which would normally be a terrible track for Jamaica 2) crosses Yucatan just N of Belize border, which is slightly S of 6Z/0Z runs 3) landfalls just N of Tampico, which is similar to 0Z

I’m a RONIer more than an ONIer. If Nino regions are, say, +2, but surrounding tropical regions are, say, +1, I feel that that’s probably going to act more like an El Niño with Nino regions at +1 and surrounding near 0 rather than acting more like a Nino with +2 and surrounding at 0. To a bigger hypothetical extreme, let’s say all tropical waters are +2. If Nino regions are also at +2, how is that going to act like El Niño with no contrast to surrounding waters? I used it starting last year when I learned about it and I’m using it again this year. Last year was a borderline moderate/strong El Nino peak per RONI. We’ll see where RONI dips to this year. I earlier thought that moderate to strong La Niña RONI dip was a high probability. Now I think that the chances for a dip to strong La Niña per RONI have diminished due to the sluggishness of the last few weeks. You said last year’s El Nino didn’t act like a moderate. But did it act like a borderline strong/super? I know it was mild in the NE US but was that mainly due to the effects of a strong/super El Nino or to something else like the very warm WPAC taking over like it has in recent years?

12Z UKMET: useful for track (not for strength): Compared to 12Z: 1) a touch S of 0Z run at Jamaica 2) 75 miles further S at Yucatan but still N of Belize border 3) much further S back to near Tampico like yesterdays runs vs today’s 0Z into TX GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 02.07.2024 HURRICANE BERYL ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 67.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022024 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 02.07.2024 0 15.0N 67.6W 951 110 0000UTC 03.07.2024 12 16.1N 71.7W 979 81 1200UTC 03.07.2024 24 16.9N 75.4W 990 63 0000UTC 04.07.2024 36 17.8N 79.0W 995 54 1200UTC 04.07.2024 48 18.4N 82.8W 999 45 0000UTC 05.07.2024 60 18.6N 86.2W 999 43 1200UTC 05.07.2024 72 19.3N 88.5W 1003 33 0000UTC 06.07.2024 84 19.8N 91.7W 1001 36 1200UTC 06.07.2024 96 20.5N 93.8W 1003 35 0000UTC 07.07.2024 108 21.3N 95.4W 1000 40 1200UTC 07.07.2024 120 22.2N 96.8W 999 39 0000UTC 08.07.2024 132 23.4N 98.2W 1000 38 1200UTC 08.07.2024 144 CEASED TRACKING

If he’s actually saying that last year’s true metric was ONI and this year RONI is the true metric, I’d agree with you as I believe in being consistent first and foremost since otherwise it would make me suspicious of a bias. But is snowman actually saying that? @snowman19, what say you?

Even if an overall mild winter verifies, which I’m currently expecting, especially the further S one goes (vs normals), I agree with you about good potential for short-lived cold periods, especially in your area and further N. Regardless, 2025-6 is the one I’m much more excited about for potential.

As is the case with most mild winters, there likely would still be several favorable periods for the NE US even if a mild winter verifies. Regardless, it is the subsequent winter that I’m much more excited about for potential.

The NHC is forecasting for Jamaica as much as 5-8 feet surge “in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast”. That was raised from 4-6 ft in the prior advisory. They are forecasting highest winds of 140 mph while approaching from ESE of Jamaica and then weakening to 120 mph when it is nearest to W Jamaica. So, it is saying solid cat 3 hit on Jamaica. These 6 MH since 1903 had analogous WNW tracks on approach to Jamaica and thus should give a good hint of what will likely occur since these moved either just S of or right over Jamaica: 1) MHs that moved WNW just S of Jamaica: Dean (2007) Ivan (2004) 2) MHs that moved WNW right over Jamaica: Gilbert (1988) Charlie (1951) Storm #4 (1944) Storm #2 (1903)

Jamaica’s only chance to avoid a very bad hit may be that shear between it and Beryl. So, that’s my hope to weaken it appreciably though it may not be enough to make much difference. Unfortunately, when looking at analogous tracks with a solid speed of movement from the E or ESE at/near Jamaica, I’m kind of discouraged. These storms, 1951’s Charlie, 1974’s Carmen, 1988’s Gilbert, 2001’s Iris, 2004’s Charley and Ivan, 2005’s Dennis and Emily, and Dean of 2007 either only weakened slightly, were steady, or strengthened on the way to Jamaica. As strong as it already is, I doubt it will be stronger than it is now once it gets there but am concerned it may only weaken slightly at most based on these 9 analogs and still be a MH. Fingers crossed it will weaken substantially.

0Z UKMET: big changes as it now skirts S coast of Jamaica, about worst possible track for them and would easily be worst hit there since Dean of 2007. Also, now crosses NE Yucatan on way to a central TX landfall with it restrengthening on way to TX. Prior run was Tampico! Ignore the winds (too low) and pressures (too high): MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 02.07.2024 HURRICANE BERYL ANALYSED POSITION : 13.6N 63.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022024 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 02.07.2024 0 13.6N 63.8W 965 95 1200UTC 02.07.2024 12 15.2N 67.7W 977 78 0000UTC 03.07.2024 24 16.3N 71.6W 985 69 1200UTC 03.07.2024 36 17.0N 75.3W 995 51 0000UTC 04.07.2024 48 18.2N 78.8W 1000 47 1200UTC 04.07.2024 60 19.2N 82.7W 1002 42 0000UTC 05.07.2024 72 20.0N 86.0W 1002 40 1200UTC 05.07.2024 84 21.3N 89.0W 1005 39 0000UTC 06.07.2024 96 22.2N 91.6W 1003 35 1200UTC 06.07.2024 108 24.2N 93.8W 1002 38 0000UTC 07.07.2024 120 25.5N 95.6W 998 36 1200UTC 07.07.2024 132 26.3N 96.5W 994 49 0000UTC 08.07.2024 144 27.2N 97.0W 994 51 1200UTC 08.07.2024 156 28.9N 97.3W 995 38 0000UTC 09.07.2024 168 29.7N 98.3W 998 30